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The Topless Towers of Blue Jay-dom
2006-05-10 09:37
by Mike Carminati
Was this the face that launch'd a thousand ships,
And burnt the topless towers of Ilium?

— "Charlie 'Victory'" Faustus referring to the specter of Helen of LaTroy in Christopher Marlowe's "The Tragical History of Dr. Faustus"

Where are our castles now, where are our towers?
— Sir Thomas "Don't Call Me Jo-Jo" More on the death of Queen Elizabeth.

Great towers take time to construct.
—"Billy" Herman Melville

The way Josh Towers has started this season couldn't be more different from how he ended the 2005 season.

On September 30, he threw a complete-game, 10-1 victory over the Royals scattering nine hits and striking out six while walking none. This capped off his second straight month with a 3-2 record and an ERA under 2.50.

Things went so well that the Jays gave Towers a two-year, $5.2 M contract as part of their "We're ready to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox" campaign this past winter.

Towers came out of spring training as the number two pitcher in the rotation. Everything sounds good, right?

His first outing, he was given a four-run lead over the Twins, but he gave up a four-run fourth, which included a ball off his foot, and then a leadoff homer to Shannon Stewart to fall behind 5-4. The Blue Jays eventually lost 13-4. He owned a 7.71 ERA, which now looks good.

Towers is now a perfect 0-7 in seven starts with a 10.09 ERA and has pitched as much as six innings just once. He has twice failed to get through the third inning. Opponents are batting .380 against him. Let me repeat, Three-eighty! His WHIP is 2.18. He projects to 0-35 with 273 hits allowed in 152 innings.

And yet the Blue Jays are 17-15 and just three games behind the Sox in the AL East. They were 80-82 last year, so one could argue that their push last winter, Towers contact notwithstanding, has been a success. Remove Towers' 0-7 record and the Jays are 17-8, a half-game ahead of the Sox.

This made me wonder what was the worst record recorded on a winning team. Here are the pitchers with at least twenty losses and a losing record for a winning team:

PitcherYrWLPCTTeamTm WTm L
Brian Kingman1980820.286Oakland Athletics8379
Robin Roberts19571022.313Philadelphia Phillies7777
Rube Marquard19141222.353New York Giants8470
Dolf Luque19221323.361Cincinnati Reds8668
Bill Hutchison18951321.382Chicago Colts7258
Harry Howell19011421.400Baltimore Orioles6865
Charlie Getzein18881925.432Detroit Wolverines6863
Eppa Rixey19171621.432Philadelphia Phillies8765
Orval Overall19051823.439Cincinnati Reds7974
Bill Doak19171620.444St. Louis Cardinals8270
Billy Serad18841620.444Buffalo Bisons6447
Mark Baldwin18931620.444New York Giants6864
Red Ehret18921620.444Pittsburgh Pirates8073
Ed Cushman18901721.447Toledo Maumees6864
Elton Chamberlain18921923.452Cincinnati Reds8268
Phenomenal Smith18872530.455Baltimore Orioles7758
George Derby18821720.459Detroit Wolverines4241
Jack Taylor18991821.462Chicago Orphans7573
Red Ehret18941921.475Pittsburgh Pirates6565
Sam Leever18992123.477Pittsburgh Pirates7673
Elton Chamberlain18912223.489Philadelphia Athletics7366
Mark Baldwin18922627.491Pittsburgh Pirates8073
Amos Rusie18952323.500New York Giants6665
Bill Dineen19022121.500Boston Somersets7760
George Mullin19052121.500Detroit Tigers7974
George Mullin19072020.500Detroit Tigers9258
Jim Scott19132020.500Chicago White Sox7874

But Towers current pace blows away Brian Kingman's 8-20 twenty-six years ago. As a matter of fact, I find it difficult to put it in any sort of historical perspective.

Here are all the pitchers who finished winless with at least seven losses with their career totals. You'll note that many of them are relievers:

PitcherYrWL ERA FirstLastCareer WCareer LCareer ERA
Terry Felton1982013 4.99 19791982016 5.53
Russ Miller1928012 5.42 19271928113 5.40
Steve Gerkin1945012 3.62 19451945012 3.62
Bill Stearns1872011 6.91 187118751264 4.98
Charlie Stecher1890010 10.32 18901890010 10.32
Earl Hamilton191709 3.14 19111924116147 3.16
Edgar Gonzalez200409 9.32 20032005210 8.58
Heathcliff Slocumb199709 5.16 199120002837 4.08
Rod Beck199609 3.34 199120043845 3.30
Stump Wiedman188009 3.40 18801888101156 3.60
Tom Tuckey190909 4.27 19081909312 3.49
Bill Grahame191008 3.56 190819101429 2.90
Ed O'Neil189008 9.26 1890189008 9.26
John Franco199808 3.62 198420059087 2.89
John Malarkey189508 5.99 189419032137 3.64
Milt Wilcox198608 5.50 19701986119113 4.07
Neil Allen198708 5.93 197919895870 3.88
Todd Burns199308 5.08 198819932123 3.47
Al Williams193807 6.94 1937193848 6.24
Bill Dawley198607 3.32 198319892730 3.42
Bob Wells200007 3.65 199420024028 5.03
Brian Reith200107 7.81 20012004412 5.92
Dan McFarlan189507 6.65 18951899825 5.02
Dick Hall195607 4.76 195519719375 3.32
Diego Segui197707 5.69 1962197792111 3.81
Duke Maas195607 6.54 195519614544 4.19
George Witt195907 6.93 195719621116 4.32
Joe Fontenot199807 6.33 1998199807 6.33
Joe Harris190707 3.05 19051907330 3.35
Joe McDermott187207 8.29 1872187207 8.29
Jorge Julio200307 4.38 200120051124 4.20
Ken Holcombe195207 5.30 194519531832 3.98
Mike Henneman199607 5.79 198719965742 3.21
Oscar Streit190207 5.23 1899190217 5.56
Ownie Carroll193007 7.39 192519346490 4.43
Rip Coleman195707 5.93 19551960725 4.58
Robb Nen199507 3.29 199320024542 2.98
Ron Kline195207 5.49 19521970114144 3.75
Ryan Bowen199207 10.96 199119951728 5.30
Snipe Hansen193007 6.72 193019352245 5.01
Stan Spencer199907 9.16 1998200039 5.54
The Only Nolan188307 4.25 187818852352 2.98
Tommy McCarthy188407 4.82 1884189407 4.93
Vic Darensbourg199807 3.68 19982005817 4.96
Whit Wyatt194507 5.26 1929194510695 3.79

Again 0-35 would destroy Terry Felton's 0-13 1982 season. Maybe looking at the most losses in a season all time would be more illustrative of how bad Towers is doing:

NameYrWLPCT ERA
John Coleman18831248.200 4.87
Will White18801842.300 2.14
Larry McKeon18841841.305 3.50
George Bradley18791340.245 2.85
Jim McCormick18792040.333 2.42
Bobby Mathews18752938.433 2.41
George Cobb18921037.213 4.86
Henry Porter18881837.327 4.16
Kid Carsey18911437.275 4.99
Bill Hutchison18923636.500 2.76
Jim Britt18731736.321 3.89
Stump Wiedman18861236.250 4.50
Adonis Terry18841935.352 3.55
Fleury Sullivan18841635.314 4.20
Hardie Henderson18852535.417 3.19
Jim Devlin18763035.462 1.56
Pud Galvin18802035.364 2.71
Red Donahue18971035.222 6.13

So no one has hit 35 losses since 1897 when baseball was still experimenting with three-man rotations. Here are the most losses since 1900:

NameYrWLPCT ERA
Vic Willis19051229.293 3.21
Paul Derringer1933727.206 3.30
George Bell19101027.270 2.64
Dummy Taylor19011827.400 3.18
Happy Townsend1904526.161 3.58
Bob Groom1909726.212 2.87
Gus Dorner1906826.235 3.53
Pete Dowling19011226.316 4.15
Ben Cantwell1935425.138 4.61
Fred Glade1905625.194 2.81
Harry McIntire1905825.242 3.70
Red Ruffing19281025.286 3.89
Patsy Flaherty19031125.306 3.74
Scott Perry19201125.306 3.62
Walter Johnson19091325.342 2.22
Stoney McGlynn19071425.359 2.91
Bugs Raymond19081525.375 2.03
Irv Young19061625.390 2.91
Oscar Jones19041725.405 2.75
Vic Willis19041825.419 2.85

Of course, the one problem in this analysis is that the Blue Jays will never let Towers get close to 35 losses. One would have to expect that if he continues to under-perform, he will be removed from the rotation before the All-Star break. Felton's 0-13 record, however, is in reach given the money the Jays are paying him and will be paying him through next season. That's an awful lot of money to pay to guy especially when he was coming off a career year. Consider as well that Towers owned a 7-8 record 4.60 ERA at the end of July 2005, which was about his career average. His career year was based on his performance in his last 12 starts (6-4, 2.47 ERA).

So maybe Towers won't make history, but maybe the Jays should have reconsidered before giving him a two-year contract based solely on a two-month performance.

Comments
2006-05-10 09:54:20
1.   rbj
How in blazes do you go 8-20 on a winning team?
116/82 K/BB isn't great, but not horrible, neither is a 3.83 ERA or a 1.38 WHIP. He had 15 unearned runs, which is only a part of the story. Did he screw a couple of other players' wives, and so they laid down when he was pitching?
2006-05-10 10:32:43
2.   Mike Carminati
Those were the Billy Ball A's. Eevery starter was expected to complete his games. a 3.83 ERA was actually worse than average back then (3.76 park0-adjusted from Baseball Reference). Without a full analysis of his game logs for the year, I would say that bad luck and complete games did him in. And Tony Armas's 10 errors in right probably didn't help him much either.

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