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Pujol-y Cow
2006-04-17 22:29
by Mike Carminati

Albert Pujols today became the 35th man in major-league history to hit four home runs in four consecutive at-bats and the 21st to do it consecutive plate appearances.

Here is the complete list:

Home Runs In Consecutive At-Bats (*= in consecutive plate appearances)

One Game: Carlos Delgado, TOR, Sept. 25, 2003*
Mike Cameron, SEA, May 2, 2002*
Mike Schmidt, PHI, Apr. 17, 1976*
Rocky Colavito, CLE, June 10, 1959*
Lou Gehrig, NYY, June 3, 1932*
Bobby Lowe, BOS May 30, 1894*
Two Games: Albert Pujols, StL, April 16-17, 2006*
Troy Glaus,:ANA, Sept. 15-16, 2002*
Andruw Jones, ATL, Sept. 7-10, 2002
Shawn Green, LA, June 14-15, 2002*
Barry Bonds, SF, May 19-20, 2001
Manny Ramirez, CLE, Sept. 15-16, 1998*
Bob Higginson, DET, June 30-July 1, 1997
Benito Santiago, PHI, Sept. 14-15, 1996
Tuffy Rhodes, CHC, Oct. 3, 1993-Apr. 4, 1994
Bo Jackson, KC, July 17-Aug. 26, 1990*
Larry Herndon, DET, May 16-18, 1982*
Mike Schmidt, PHI, July 6-7, 1979*
Don Baylor, BAL, July 1-2, 1975
Deron Johnson, PHI, July 10-11, 1971*
Mike Epstein, OAK, June 15-16, 1971*
Bobby Murcer, NYY, June 24, 1970 (DH)
Art Shamsky, CIN, Aug. 12-14, 1966*
Stan Musial, STL, July 7-8, 1962
Mickey Mantle, NYY, July 4-6, 1962*
Willie Kirkland, CLE, July 9-13, 1961
Charlie Maxwell, DET, May 3, 1959 (DH)
Ralph Kiner, PIT, Sept. 11-13, 1949*
Ralph Kiner, PIT, Aug. 15-16, 1947
Bill Nicholson, CHC, July 22-23, 1944
Hank Greenberg, DET, Jul 26-27, 1938*
Jimmie Foxx, PHI(AL), June 7-8, 1933*
Three Games: Jeff Manto, BAL, June 8-10, 1995
Johnny Blanchard, NYY, July 21-22-26, 1961*
Four Games: Ted Williams, BOS, Sept. 17-20-21-22, 1957

Some list, eh? Mike Epstein, Jeff Manto, AND Tuffy Rhodes. You'll notice that Schmidt and Kiner are the only two to make the list twice, and Schmitty is the only one to ever do it in consecutive plate appearances twice.

Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to look at the probability of accomplishing such a feat (based on a player's career totals, through 2005). Here are the players with the best odds of hitting four straight homers in any four given at-bats:

PlayerHRABTPAHR-AB OddsHR-PA Odds
Mike Jacobs111001120.000146419.30462E-05
Mark McGwire583618776607.88413E-053.35551E-05
Ted Tappe558725.52291E-052.32568E-05
Babe Ruth7148398106165.22504E-052.04621E-05
Dave Staton91081224.82253E-052.96163E-05
Barry Bonds7089140116363.60038E-051.37062E-05
Jim Thome430591972812.78535E-051.21649E-05
Manny Ramirez435612672252.54243E-051.31403E-05
Ralph Kiner369520562562.52594E-051.21037E-05
Harmon Killebrew573814798312.44696E-051.15406E-05
Mike Busch71001050.000024011.97531E-05
Sammy Sosa588840194422.39986E-051.50402E-05
Adam Dunn158227127832.34293E-051.0389E-05
Alex Rodriguez429619571002.29966E-051.33289E-05
Greg Pirkl81161202.26218E-051.97531E-05
Bernardo Brito573762.20084E-051.87338E-05
Ryan Howard243513902.18583E-051.43412E-05
Ken Griffey536787090722.15159E-051.21856E-05
Albert Pujols201295434282.14359E-051.18201E-05
Ted Williams521770697912.08946E-058.01757E-06

Now, here's the same thing based on four straight plate appearances:

PlayerHRABTPAHR-AB OddsHR-PA Odds
Mike Jacobs111001120.000146419.30462E-05
Mark McGwire583618776607.88413E-053.35551E-05
Dave Staton91081224.82253E-052.96163E-05
Ted Tappe558725.52291E-052.32568E-05
Babe Ruth7148398106165.22504E-052.04621E-05
Mike Busch71001050.000024011.97531E-05
Greg Pirkl81161202.26218E-051.97531E-05
Bernardo Brito573762.20084E-051.87338E-05
Dixie Howell574792.08427E-051.60462E-05
Sammy Sosa588840194422.39986E-051.50402E-05
Ryan Howard243513902.18583E-051.43412E-05
D.T. Cromer71041142.05238E-051.42158E-05
Luis Medina101501631.97531E-051.41661E-05
Barry Bonds7089140116363.60038E-051.37062E-05
Juan Gonzalez434655671551.92045E-051.35369E-05
Alex Rodriguez429619571002.29966E-051.33289E-05
Manny Ramirez435612672252.54243E-051.31403E-05
Dave Kingman442667774291.92028E-051.25305E-05
Ken Griffey536787090722.15159E-051.21856E-05
Jim Thome430591972812.78535E-051.21649E-05

You'll note that guys who recorded a bunch of homers in a limited set of at-bats/plate appearances do very well in these lists. If you would prefer to examine the expected four-homer streak per player, here are the players you would most expect to accomplish such a feat:

PlayerHRABTPAHR-AB OddsHR-PA Odds AB Exp PA Exp
Mark McGwire583618776607.88413E-053.35551E-05 0.488 0.257
Babe Ruth7148398106165.22504E-052.04621E-05 0.439 0.217
Barry Bonds7089140116363.60038E-051.37062E-05 0.329 0.159
Sammy Sosa588840194422.39986E-051.50402E-05 0.202 0.142
Harmon Killebrew573814798312.44696E-051.15406E-05 0.199 0.113
Hank Aaron75512364139401.39044E-058.60472E-06 0.172 0.120
Ken Griffey536787090722.15159E-051.21856E-05 0.169 0.111
Jim Thome430591972812.78535E-051.21649E-05 0.165 0.089
Ted Williams521770697912.08946E-058.01757E-06 0.161 0.078
Manny Ramirez435612672252.54243E-051.31403E-05 0.156 0.095
Mickey Mantle536810299091.91554E-058.5613E-06 0.155 0.085
Mike Schmidt5488352100621.85336E-058.79802E-06 0.155 0.088
Jimmie Foxx534813496701.85758E-059.29949E-06 0.151 0.090
Willie Mays66010881124931.35363E-057.78949E-06 0.147 0.097
Alex Rodriguez429619571002.29966E-051.33289E-05 0.142 0.095
Willie McCovey521819796861.63204E-058.37092E-06 0.134 0.081
Ralph Kiner369520562562.52594E-051.21037E-05 0.131 0.076
Jose Canseco462705781291.83691E-051.04332E-05 0.130 0.085
Dave Kingman442667774291.92028E-051.25305E-05 0.128 0.093
Juan Gonzalez434655671551.92045E-051.35369E-05 0.126 0.097
Frank Thomas448695686021.72058E-057.35723E-06 0.120 0.063
Frank Robinson58610006117431.17638E-056.20118E-06 0.118 0.073
Lou Gehrig493800196601.44149E-056.7839E-06 0.115 0.066
Eddie Mathews5128537101011.29377E-056.60119E-06 0.110 0.067
Carlos Delgado369552966341.9839E-059.57202E-06 0.110 0.063
Albert Belle381585366731.7955E-051.06271E-05 0.105 0.071
Reggie Jackson5639864114161.06126E-055.91531E-06 0.105 0.068
Mike Piazza397620369771.67786E-051.0483E-05 0.104 0.073
Willie Stargell475792790261.28926E-057.66996E-06 0.102 0.069

McGwire comes in at number one, but never hit four home runs in consecutive at-bats. Then again, one would expect that there would be no more than 15 or 16 players to accomplish it (based on the sum of the expectations for all players). Also, one would expect about 11 to hit four dingers in four straight plate appearances.

Albert Pujols come in at number 51, by the way. Tuffy Rhodes comes in at 1924th among the 3998 players who qualify (i.e., a min of 5 career home runs). I believe he had the worst odds of anyone who actually accomplished the feat. Rhodes' expectation is 0.00014. I think it appropriate to say, "Well, how about that!" and leave it at that.

Comments
2006-04-18 09:17:22
1.   jonnystrongleg
Also, Reggie did it in games 5 & 6 of the 1977 World Series. HR last AB of game 5, then BB, HR, HR, HR. If I recall, it was 4 swings, as he did not offer during the walk nor in any of the other AB's.
2006-04-18 11:10:15
2.   rbj
I fully expect Pujols to move up that list by the end of his career. I also think he's the best threat for the triple crown right now.
2006-04-18 13:40:23
3.   das411
...who's to say Mike Jacobs won't hit 66 home runs this season??

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