Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Albert Pujols today became the 35th man in major-league history to hit four home runs in four consecutive at-bats and the 21st to do it consecutive plate appearances.
Here is the complete list:
Home Runs In Consecutive At-Bats (*= in consecutive plate appearances)
One Game: Carlos Delgado, TOR, Sept. 25, 2003*
Mike Cameron, SEA, May 2, 2002*
Mike Schmidt, PHI, Apr. 17, 1976*
Rocky Colavito, CLE, June 10, 1959*
Lou Gehrig, NYY, June 3, 1932*
Bobby Lowe, BOS May 30, 1894*
Two Games: Albert Pujols, StL, April 16-17, 2006*
Troy Glaus,:ANA, Sept. 15-16, 2002*
Andruw Jones, ATL, Sept. 7-10, 2002
Shawn Green, LA, June 14-15, 2002*
Barry Bonds, SF, May 19-20, 2001
Manny Ramirez, CLE, Sept. 15-16, 1998*
Bob Higginson, DET, June 30-July 1, 1997
Benito Santiago, PHI, Sept. 14-15, 1996
Tuffy Rhodes, CHC, Oct. 3, 1993-Apr. 4, 1994
Bo Jackson, KC, July 17-Aug. 26, 1990*
Larry Herndon, DET, May 16-18, 1982*
Mike Schmidt, PHI, July 6-7, 1979*
Don Baylor, BAL, July 1-2, 1975
Deron Johnson, PHI, July 10-11, 1971*
Mike Epstein, OAK, June 15-16, 1971*
Bobby Murcer, NYY, June 24, 1970 (DH)
Art Shamsky, CIN, Aug. 12-14, 1966*
Stan Musial, STL, July 7-8, 1962
Mickey Mantle, NYY, July 4-6, 1962*
Willie Kirkland, CLE, July 9-13, 1961
Charlie Maxwell, DET, May 3, 1959 (DH)
Ralph Kiner, PIT, Sept. 11-13, 1949*
Ralph Kiner, PIT, Aug. 15-16, 1947
Bill Nicholson, CHC, July 22-23, 1944
Hank Greenberg, DET, Jul 26-27, 1938*
Jimmie Foxx, PHI(AL), June 7-8, 1933*
Three Games: Jeff Manto, BAL, June 8-10, 1995
Johnny Blanchard, NYY, July 21-22-26, 1961*
Four Games: Ted Williams, BOS, Sept. 17-20-21-22, 1957
Some list, eh? Mike Epstein, Jeff Manto, AND Tuffy Rhodes. You'll notice that Schmidt and Kiner are the only two to make the list twice, and Schmitty is the only one to ever do it in consecutive plate appearances twice.
Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to look at the probability of accomplishing such a feat (based on a player's career totals, through 2005). Here are the players with the best odds of hitting four straight homers in any four given at-bats:
Player | HR | AB | TPA | HR-AB Odds | HR-PA Odds |
Mike Jacobs | 11 | 100 | 112 | 0.00014641 | 9.30462E-05 |
Mark McGwire | 583 | 6187 | 7660 | 7.88413E-05 | 3.35551E-05 |
Ted Tappe | 5 | 58 | 72 | 5.52291E-05 | 2.32568E-05 |
Babe Ruth | 714 | 8398 | 10616 | 5.22504E-05 | 2.04621E-05 |
Dave Staton | 9 | 108 | 122 | 4.82253E-05 | 2.96163E-05 |
Barry Bonds | 708 | 9140 | 11636 | 3.60038E-05 | 1.37062E-05 |
Jim Thome | 430 | 5919 | 7281 | 2.78535E-05 | 1.21649E-05 |
Manny Ramirez | 435 | 6126 | 7225 | 2.54243E-05 | 1.31403E-05 |
Ralph Kiner | 369 | 5205 | 6256 | 2.52594E-05 | 1.21037E-05 |
Harmon Killebrew | 573 | 8147 | 9831 | 2.44696E-05 | 1.15406E-05 |
Mike Busch | 7 | 100 | 105 | 0.00002401 | 1.97531E-05 |
Sammy Sosa | 588 | 8401 | 9442 | 2.39986E-05 | 1.50402E-05 |
Adam Dunn | 158 | 2271 | 2783 | 2.34293E-05 | 1.0389E-05 |
Alex Rodriguez | 429 | 6195 | 7100 | 2.29966E-05 | 1.33289E-05 |
Greg Pirkl | 8 | 116 | 120 | 2.26218E-05 | 1.97531E-05 |
Bernardo Brito | 5 | 73 | 76 | 2.20084E-05 | 1.87338E-05 |
Ryan Howard | 24 | 351 | 390 | 2.18583E-05 | 1.43412E-05 |
Ken Griffey | 536 | 7870 | 9072 | 2.15159E-05 | 1.21856E-05 |
Albert Pujols | 201 | 2954 | 3428 | 2.14359E-05 | 1.18201E-05 |
Ted Williams | 521 | 7706 | 9791 | 2.08946E-05 | 8.01757E-06 |
Now, here's the same thing based on four straight plate appearances:
Player | HR | AB | TPA | HR-AB Odds | HR-PA Odds |
Mike Jacobs | 11 | 100 | 112 | 0.00014641 | 9.30462E-05 |
Mark McGwire | 583 | 6187 | 7660 | 7.88413E-05 | 3.35551E-05 |
Dave Staton | 9 | 108 | 122 | 4.82253E-05 | 2.96163E-05 |
Ted Tappe | 5 | 58 | 72 | 5.52291E-05 | 2.32568E-05 |
Babe Ruth | 714 | 8398 | 10616 | 5.22504E-05 | 2.04621E-05 |
Mike Busch | 7 | 100 | 105 | 0.00002401 | 1.97531E-05 |
Greg Pirkl | 8 | 116 | 120 | 2.26218E-05 | 1.97531E-05 |
Bernardo Brito | 5 | 73 | 76 | 2.20084E-05 | 1.87338E-05 |
Dixie Howell | 5 | 74 | 79 | 2.08427E-05 | 1.60462E-05 |
Sammy Sosa | 588 | 8401 | 9442 | 2.39986E-05 | 1.50402E-05 |
Ryan Howard | 24 | 351 | 390 | 2.18583E-05 | 1.43412E-05 |
D.T. Cromer | 7 | 104 | 114 | 2.05238E-05 | 1.42158E-05 |
Luis Medina | 10 | 150 | 163 | 1.97531E-05 | 1.41661E-05 |
Barry Bonds | 708 | 9140 | 11636 | 3.60038E-05 | 1.37062E-05 |
Juan Gonzalez | 434 | 6556 | 7155 | 1.92045E-05 | 1.35369E-05 |
Alex Rodriguez | 429 | 6195 | 7100 | 2.29966E-05 | 1.33289E-05 |
Manny Ramirez | 435 | 6126 | 7225 | 2.54243E-05 | 1.31403E-05 |
Dave Kingman | 442 | 6677 | 7429 | 1.92028E-05 | 1.25305E-05 |
Ken Griffey | 536 | 7870 | 9072 | 2.15159E-05 | 1.21856E-05 |
Jim Thome | 430 | 5919 | 7281 | 2.78535E-05 | 1.21649E-05 |
You'll note that guys who recorded a bunch of homers in a limited set of at-bats/plate appearances do very well in these lists. If you would prefer to examine the expected four-homer streak per player, here are the players you would most expect to accomplish such a feat:
Player | HR | AB | TPA | HR-AB Odds | HR-PA Odds | AB Exp | PA Exp |
Mark McGwire | 583 | 6187 | 7660 | 7.88413E-05 | 3.35551E-05 | 0.488 | 0.257 |
Babe Ruth | 714 | 8398 | 10616 | 5.22504E-05 | 2.04621E-05 | 0.439 | 0.217 |
Barry Bonds | 708 | 9140 | 11636 | 3.60038E-05 | 1.37062E-05 | 0.329 | 0.159 |
Sammy Sosa | 588 | 8401 | 9442 | 2.39986E-05 | 1.50402E-05 | 0.202 | 0.142 |
Harmon Killebrew | 573 | 8147 | 9831 | 2.44696E-05 | 1.15406E-05 | 0.199 | 0.113 |
Hank Aaron | 755 | 12364 | 13940 | 1.39044E-05 | 8.60472E-06 | 0.172 | 0.120 |
Ken Griffey | 536 | 7870 | 9072 | 2.15159E-05 | 1.21856E-05 | 0.169 | 0.111 |
Jim Thome | 430 | 5919 | 7281 | 2.78535E-05 | 1.21649E-05 | 0.165 | 0.089 |
Ted Williams | 521 | 7706 | 9791 | 2.08946E-05 | 8.01757E-06 | 0.161 | 0.078 |
Manny Ramirez | 435 | 6126 | 7225 | 2.54243E-05 | 1.31403E-05 | 0.156 | 0.095 |
Mickey Mantle | 536 | 8102 | 9909 | 1.91554E-05 | 8.5613E-06 | 0.155 | 0.085 |
Mike Schmidt | 548 | 8352 | 10062 | 1.85336E-05 | 8.79802E-06 | 0.155 | 0.088 |
Jimmie Foxx | 534 | 8134 | 9670 | 1.85758E-05 | 9.29949E-06 | 0.151 | 0.090 |
Willie Mays | 660 | 10881 | 12493 | 1.35363E-05 | 7.78949E-06 | 0.147 | 0.097 |
Alex Rodriguez | 429 | 6195 | 7100 | 2.29966E-05 | 1.33289E-05 | 0.142 | 0.095 |
Willie McCovey | 521 | 8197 | 9686 | 1.63204E-05 | 8.37092E-06 | 0.134 | 0.081 |
Ralph Kiner | 369 | 5205 | 6256 | 2.52594E-05 | 1.21037E-05 | 0.131 | 0.076 |
Jose Canseco | 462 | 7057 | 8129 | 1.83691E-05 | 1.04332E-05 | 0.130 | 0.085 |
Dave Kingman | 442 | 6677 | 7429 | 1.92028E-05 | 1.25305E-05 | 0.128 | 0.093 |
Juan Gonzalez | 434 | 6556 | 7155 | 1.92045E-05 | 1.35369E-05 | 0.126 | 0.097 |
Frank Thomas | 448 | 6956 | 8602 | 1.72058E-05 | 7.35723E-06 | 0.120 | 0.063 |
Frank Robinson | 586 | 10006 | 11743 | 1.17638E-05 | 6.20118E-06 | 0.118 | 0.073 |
Lou Gehrig | 493 | 8001 | 9660 | 1.44149E-05 | 6.7839E-06 | 0.115 | 0.066 |
Eddie Mathews | 512 | 8537 | 10101 | 1.29377E-05 | 6.60119E-06 | 0.110 | 0.067 |
Carlos Delgado | 369 | 5529 | 6634 | 1.9839E-05 | 9.57202E-06 | 0.110 | 0.063 |
Albert Belle | 381 | 5853 | 6673 | 1.7955E-05 | 1.06271E-05 | 0.105 | 0.071 |
Reggie Jackson | 563 | 9864 | 11416 | 1.06126E-05 | 5.91531E-06 | 0.105 | 0.068 |
Mike Piazza | 397 | 6203 | 6977 | 1.67786E-05 | 1.0483E-05 | 0.104 | 0.073 |
Willie Stargell | 475 | 7927 | 9026 | 1.28926E-05 | 7.66996E-06 | 0.102 | 0.069 |
McGwire comes in at number one, but never hit four home runs in consecutive at-bats. Then again, one would expect that there would be no more than 15 or 16 players to accomplish it (based on the sum of the expectations for all players). Also, one would expect about 11 to hit four dingers in four straight plate appearances.
Albert Pujols come in at number 51, by the way. Tuffy Rhodes comes in at 1924th among the 3998 players who qualify (i.e., a min of 5 career home runs). I believe he had the worst odds of anyone who actually accomplished the feat. Rhodes' expectation is 0.00014. I think it appropriate to say, "Well, how about that!" and leave it at that.
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