Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Phils are in fact idle tonight as they await a run at tying their team record for the worst start to a season, 1-7. And who's ready and waiting to deliver it? None other than the estimable Corey Lidle.
The goodish news is that one of those 1-7 Phils clubs, the 1987 rendition, finished the season at 80-82, which at this point seems extremely optimistic. Another (1985) finished at 75-87 and the other two (1934 and '38, respectively) finished at a deplorable 56-93 and 45-105. Oh joy!
Overall throughout all teams, 1-7 starts end up with a 70-92, .433 record. Just two of those teams (out of 76) made the postseason ('95 Reds and '74 Pirates).
I've been trying to get my arms around how bad this start is and at what point they reach a tipping point for a descent into hell. This series with the Braves seems to be the ticket. After tomorrow's masterpiece from Msgr. Lidle, salvaging anything from the series will come down to Gavin Floyd, the latest in a long line of promising yet enigmatic Phils pitchers.
If the Phils can keep up the abysmal performance until they arrive in Denver, they can record just their second 1-9 start to a season ever and their first since 1938. Here are the worst starts through ten games for any Phillies club (since 1901):
Yr | W | L | PCT | RS | RA | Exp PCT | W | L | PCT | POS | Postseason |
1938 | 1 | 9 | .100 | 36 | 72 | .220 | 45 | 105 | .300 | 8 | |
1941 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 27 | 59 | .193 | 43 | 111 | .279 | 8 | |
1982 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 24 | 52 | .195 | 89 | 73 | .549 | 2 | |
1985 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 25 | 42 | .279 | 75 | 87 | .463 | 5 | |
1987 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 37 | 62 | .280 | 80 | 82 | .494 | 5 | |
1934 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 36 | 58 | .295 | 56 | 93 | .376 | 7 | |
1904 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 43 | 69 | .296 | 52 | 100 | .342 | 8 | |
1969 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 39 | 60 | .313 | 63 | 99 | .389 | 5 | |
1946 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 33 | 50 | .319 | 69 | 85 | .448 | 5 | |
1935 | 2 | 8 | .200 | 55 | 81 | .330 | 64 | 89 | .418 | 7 | |
1997 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 20 | 42 | .205 | 68 | 94 | .420 | 5 | |
1970 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 20 | 39 | .228 | 73 | 88 | .453 | 5 | |
1942 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 21 | 37 | .262 | 42 | 109 | .278 | 8 | |
1943 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 34 | 57 | .280 | 64 | 90 | .416 | 7 | |
1986 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 36 | 56 | .308 | 86 | 75 | .534 | 2 | |
1903 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 33 | 47 | .344 | 49 | 86 | .363 | 7 | |
1961 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 29 | 39 | .368 | 47 | 107 | .305 | 8 | |
1977 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 36 | 46 | .390 | 101 | 61 | .623 | 1 | Division Champ |
1945 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 37 | 46 | .402 | 46 | 108 | .299 | 8 | |
1988 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 34 | 42 | .405 | 65 | 96 | .404 | 6 | |
1949 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 47 | 58 | .405 | 81 | 73 | .526 | 3 | |
1924 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 47 | 57 | .413 | 55 | 96 | .364 | 7 | |
1971 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 42 | 48 | .439 | 67 | 95 | .414 | 6 | |
1991 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 41 | 44 | .468 | 78 | 84 | .481 | 3 | |
2005 | 1 | 6 | .143 | 24 | 40 | .282 | |||||
Avg | .254 | .318 | 67 | 95 | .414 | 5.67 |
Sparing a three-game win streak, the Phils will join their company. On average these teams ended at 67-95, .414. Given the talent in the NL East that still might be good enough for a distant third-place finish. Given the expected winning percentage from this year, the Phils have not outperformed their lesser antecedents and just fallen on bad luck. Their expected winning percentage is worse than the average for this lot, which makes me think 65-97 is optimistic.
Anyway, my next thought is how long "Can't Stand" Pat Gillick will sit idly by and not get busy marking Charlie "I Need a Friggin'" Manuel as the fall guy for the mess. This sort of slight of hand will become necessary when the locals start pointing out that it was Gillick who traded the newly revitalized Jim Thome (and ate half of his gargantuan contract in the process) and who spent the offseason putzing around with minor notes like Julio Santana and Ryan Franklin when the team's tune needed a whole new arrangement.
I couldn't believe that Manuel, ex-GM's Ed Wade's boy, let's not forget, could survive a 1-9 start. This all made me wonder what was the quickest hook at the start of the season for a manager. Whatever happens, Manuel won't be close to the quickest but I'm proud to say that the honor is owned by a Phils' manager anyway. Here are all the managers fired within ten games and how their teams finally finished the season:
Manager | Yr | Team | G | Mgr W | Mgr L | W | L | Postseason? |
Eddie Sawyer | 1960 | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 95 | N |
Billy Barnie | 1892 | Washington Senators | 2 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 93 | N |
Clyde Sukeforth | 1947 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 94 | 60 | N |
Harry Wheeler | 1884 | Kansas City Cowboys | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 63 | N |
Jack Glasscock | 1892 | St. Louis Browns | 4 | 1 | 3 | 56 | 94 | N |
Jim McCormick | 1882 | Cleveland Blues | 4 | 0 | 4 | 42 | 40 | N |
Lip Pike | 1871 | Troy Haymakers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 15 | N |
Bill Smith | 1873 | Baltimore Marylands | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | N |
Cal Ripken | 1988 | Baltimore Orioles | 6 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 107 | N |
Cy Young | 1907 | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 90 | N |
Phil Garner | 2002 | Detroit Tigers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 55 | 106 | N |
A.M. Thompson | 1884 | St. Paul Apostles | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | N |
Nick Young | 1872 | Washington Olympics | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | N |
Dude Esterbrook | 1889 | Louisville Colonels | 10 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 111 | N |
Fergy Malone | 1873 | Philadelphia Whites | 10 | 8 | 2 | 36 | 17 | N |
Jimmie Wilson | 1944 | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 1 | 9 | 75 | 79 | N |
In order to filter out teams that only played a handful of games in a season in the nineteenth century, I looked at just those who managed from 1900 on:
Manager | Yr | Team | G | Mgr W | Mgr L | W | L | Postseason? |
Eddie Sawyer | 1960 | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 95 | N |
Clyde Sukeforth | 1947 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 94 | 60 | Y |
Cal Ripken | 1988 | Baltimore Orioles | 6 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 107 | N |
Cy Young | 1907 | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 90 | N |
Phil Garner | 2002 | Detroit Tigers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 55 | 106 | N |
Jimmie Wilson | 1944 | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 1 | 9 | 75 | 79 | N |
Doc Gessler | 1914 | Pittsburgh Rebels | 11 | 3 | 8 | 64 | 86 | N |
Preston Gomez | 1972 | San Diego Padres | 11 | 4 | 7 | 58 | 95 | N |
Vedie Himsl | 1961 | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 5 | 6 | 64 | 90 | N |
Nick Leyva | 1991 | Philadelphia Phillies | 13 | 4 | 9 | 78 | 84 | N |
Bob Lemon | 1982 | New York Yankees | 14 | 6 | 8 | 79 | 83 | N |
John McGraw | 1925 | New York Giants | 14 | 10 | 4 | 86 | 66 | N |
Kid Nichols | 1905 | St. Louis Cardinals | 14 | 5 | 9 | 58 | 96 | N |
Larry Rothschild | 2001 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 14 | 4 | 10 | 62 | 100 | N |
Davey Lopes | 2002 | Milwaukee Brewers | 15 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 106 | N |
Lew Fonseca | 1934 | Chicago White Sox | 15 | 4 | 11 | 53 | 99 | N |
Yogi Berra | 1985 | New York Yankees | 16 | 6 | 10 | 97 | 64 | N |
Al Lopez | 1969 | Chicago White Sox | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68 | 94 | N |
Bill Norman | 1959 | Detroit Tigers | 17 | 2 | 15 | 76 | 78 | N |
Charlie Grimm | 1960 | Chicago Cubs | 17 | 6 | 11 | 60 | 94 | N |
Deacon McGuire | 1911 | Cleveland Naps | 17 | 6 | 11 | 80 | 73 | N |
Vern Rapp | 1978 | St. Louis Cardinals | 17 | 6 | 11 | 69 | 93 | N |
Malachi Kittridge | 1904 | Washington Senators | 18 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 113 | N |
Chuck Dressen | 1957 | Washington Senators | 20 | 4 | 16 | 55 | 99 | N |
El Tappe | 1962 | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 103 | N |
Johnny Keane | 1966 | New York Yankees | 20 | 4 | 16 | 70 | 89 | N |
We're headed down a very dismal path here. But there is one bright spot: if the Phils keep it up much longer ol' Charlie Manuel can't be long for this world. Now if someone could fire David Montgomery, then they would headed in the right direction.
So who's it gonna be when they fire Cholly, Mike? My fingers are crossed for Davey Johnson, but it'll never happen....right?
Regardless, it's very possible that Manuel will break Leyva's team record for earliest firing in a season.
Now if they drop the following vs the Rockies and Nationals.. we can crucify Manuel and probably even Gillick
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