Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Indians today locked up Grady Sizemore, a veteran of a season and a quarter, to a six year contract for a minimum of $23.45 M. The deal includes an option year at $8.5 M or a $500 K buyout (included in the $23.45 M). The Indians have essentially locked up the center fielder until he turns 30
This is the sort of strategy—signing up youngsters to long-term deals—that the Indians employed to perfection in the Nineties, becoming for a time perennial winners. I am surprised that Cleveland rushed to sign Sizemore so quickly, two years before he is arbitration eligible. But really the money that he would be getting each year would be relatively if he remains a serviceable starting position player (ergo the Joe Charboneau reference).
Here's a quick table for each of Sizemore's years until the contract expires with his age and salary (I'll be optimistic and use the non-buyout figure for 2012):
| Yr | Age | Salary |
| 2004 | 21 | NA |
| 2005 | 22 | 318,300 |
| 2006 | 23 | 1,500,000 |
| 2007 | 24 | 750,000 |
| 2008 | 25 | 3,000,000 |
| 2009 | 26 | 4,600,000 |
| 2010 | 27 | 5,600,000 |
| 2011 | 28 | 7,500,000 |
| 2012 | 29 | 8,500,000 |
| Total | 31,768,300 |
Thirty million or so by your thirtieth birthday? Sure, I'd take it.
It made me wonder what was the most any ballplayer made before turning 30. So I looked it up. It turns out that Sizemore won't even make the top ten:
| Player | Salary Under 30 |
| Alex Rodriguez | $126,027,000 |
| Andruw Jones | $ 60,206,500 |
| Derek Jeter | $ 59,230,000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | $ 53,930,000 |
| Ken Griffey | $ 52,272,731 |
| Pedro Martinez | $ 48,220,000 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | $ 46,910,000 |
| Gary Sheffield | $ 41,886,667 |
| Juan Gonzalez | $ 40,937,500 |
| Shawn Green | $ 40,735,501 |
| Edgar Renteria | $ 36,864,500 |
| Scott Rolen | $ 35,109,000 |
| Mike Hampton | $ 34,196,543 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | $ 33,684,000 |
| Javier Vazquez | $ 33,410,000 |
| Troy Glaus | $ 32,052,500 |
| Roberto Alomar | $ 31,323,758 |
| Carlos Beltran | $ 31,046,429 |
| Richard Hidalgo | $ 30,910,000 |
| Kerry Wood | $ 30,185,000 |
| Paul Konerko | $ 29,790,000 |
| Matt Morris | $ 29,200,000 |
| Johnny Damon | $ 28,939,000 |
| Raul Mondesi | $ 28,820,000 |
| Kevin Millwood | $ 28,725,000 |
| John Olerud | $ 28,593,667 |
| Carlos Delgado | $ 28,499,000 |
| Manny Ramirez | $ 28,070,000 |
So, yes, it's a gamble, but at least the Indians haven't mortgaged the farm. Maybe a big gamble is what it takes to win. It worked for them before. At least it'll make things interesting.
By the way, I couldn't resist the Fred G. Sanford reference in the title.
1 - Was the Crawford deal (6 years for $31m) a bad one also? It seems pretty clear that the new ownership had a large part in working both of those out...
- On second look I think the D-Ray deals (Crawford, Baldelli) have a different number of years that would be free agent years so it's a bit like comparing apples and oranges. One of Sizemore's years is league minimum, one of Baldelli's is free agent, so the aprox. $8M difference is realistic.
I think all 3 deals are reasonable if the players perform as they have in the past - the Baldelli deal just seems like a bit higher risk.
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