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Sammy's Legacy—So-so or Explosivo?
2006-02-16 21:46
by Mike Carminati

Apparently, Sammy Sosa has reached the end of the line, or so abounding theories would have us believe. He drew his line in the sand and stuck to it, turning down the Nationals' offer since it did not come with a guaranteed starting job.

Lifetime Dodger Jackie Robinson retired instead of playing for the hated Giants. Sosa refuses to spend more time cheering his teammates from the dugout rather than from on the field. At least he's taking a stand, I guess. One man's meat yudda yudda.

The rumor that Alex Rodriguez has been wooing him to platoon with Bernie Williams in the DH spot is now being drowned with rumors that Sosa either has already retired (but just doesn't know it) or will retire when he gets around to it.

Let's assume the rumors are true and Sosa is retiring 12 homers short of being the fifth man in major-league history to amass 600 dingers in his career. So what will his legacy be?

I have to admit that I was very slow to warm to fan-favorite Sammy. I was in the camp who early in his career looked at his inability to draw a base on balls and labeled him a sabermetrically weak player though he had very impressive conventional stats. I think his being awarded the 1998 NL MVP awards was one of the worst decisions by the writers since Pete Rose won the Good Guy Award in 1965.

However, Sosa convinced me that a player could develop at the major-league level. I would call his peak from 1998-2003, extremely impressive and definitely Hall-worthy. The only problem is that the eight-plus years before that peak and the two since have been anything but revelatory.

The prototype for these years was 1997 in my opinion. Sosa hit 36 home runs and drove in 119 but he batted just .251, slugged .480, and got on base just 30% of the time. He stole 22 bases but got caught 64% of the time (12 times). His OPS (.773) was ever so slightly worse than the park-adjusted league average. Oh, and he led the league in strikeouts, 174, while walking just 45 times. He was a sabermetrician's nightmare.

Then he turned his career around in one of the most over-publicized performances of all time. His OBP shot up 77 points, his batting average 57, his slugging 167, and his OPS—get this—244 points. It was now 60% better than the adjusted league average. And, of course, he hit 66 homers, did you hear?

He had a great season by anyone's standard, just not as good a season as Mark McGwire's historic one—his OPS was 117% better than the adjusted league average, for example. But they both saved baseball, as legend has it (Did you hear Abner Doubleday apocryphally invented the game, too). Sosa won the MVP on the strength of his Cubbies qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card after winning a one-game tiebreaker. Never mind that Chicago got swept that postseason. Sosa was so dang cute, smiling and kissing fingers and hugging Mark McGwire and whatnot.

After saving the game, Sosa's legacy seems now as uneven as his career was. He famously got caught with a corked bat. He was ridden out of Chicago on a rail after some non-story about his leaving the clubhouse during the last game of a disappointing 2004 Cubbie season.

Next, he makes history joining Rafael Palmeiro in Baltimore thereby setting a record for career homers by two teammates (and broke it on a regular basis during the year). Not only that, the O's start off the season strong and lead the AL East for a long while. It seemed that his career would witness a rebirth.

So what happens next? The Orioles collapse, Palmeiro gets embroiled in a steroid scandal, and Sammy ends up having his worst season since leaving the South Side of Chicago. The scent of steroid use, true or not, seems to have attached itself to him. And after one season he is dropped by Baltimore and may be forced to retire because he can't find a job to his liking.

So back to his legacy…How will Sammy be remembered? Will it be a corked bat or a finger kiss? Os somewhere in between (a kissed bat)?

Sosa's legacy might be both, the incredible highs and the ignominious lows. At least it will be for me. That alone makes him a remarkable player. I mean, how many players learn how to draw a walk after eight years and then forget it after another six or so?

Well, actually, I studied that and found that there were 25 major-leaguers who had a more dramatic turnaround than Sosa. But few ahead of him on that list were able to turn their careers around as dramatically as Sosa did after "learning" to walk.

I guess the real question is how will his minor peccadilloes affect Sosa's Hall chances. It seemed unthinkable a few years ago, but could Sosa suffer the same fate as his ex-teammate Palmeiro. That is, could his contributions to the game be outweighed by the negatives, at least in the minds of Hall of Fame voters? Only time will tell.

So when all is said and done, where does Sosa rank among the best right fielders of all time? I looked up the players whose primary position was right field or, in the years in which all three outfield spots' fielding stats were lumped together, I took players whose primary position was outfielder and who played the most games in right (we do have the splits by game per outfield position at least).

I took the players that met these criteria and either had 250 or more career Win Shares or were in the Hall of Fame. Hopefully, those two lists will have a bit of overlap. Here are the qualifying right fielders by career Win Shares first:

PlayerWin Shares Bat WS Field WS Pitch WS Tot WS BAOBPSLUGOPSOPS+Hall?
Babe Ruth756 608.8 44.7 102.1 755.3 .342.474.6901.164207Y
Hank Aaron643 573.4 67.2 - 640.5 .305.374.555.928155Y
Mel Ott528 474.1 51.6 - 525.4 .304.414.533.947155Y
Frank Robinson519 468.1 51.0 - 518.8 .294.389.537.926154Y
Sam Crawford446 398.8 48.6 - 447.5 .309.362.452.814144Y
Reggie Jackson444 403.8 40.6 - 444.0 .262.356.490.846139Y
Al Kaline443 382.9 58.5 - 441.6 .297.376.480.855134Y
Paul Waner423 359.8 61.0 - 420.8 .333.404.473.878134Y
Dave Winfield415 373.1 41.0 - 414.5 .283.353.475.827129Y
Tony Gwynn398 353.7 45.0 - 398.5 .338.388.459.847132NA
Roberto Clemente377 316.5 59.4 - 375.8 .317.359.475.834130Y
Gary Sheffield368 328.6 38.6 - 366.9 .297.399.527.925146NA
Rusty Staub358 322.6 35.4 - 358.1 .279.362.431.793124
Harry Heilmann356 325.1 30.9 - 356.1 .342.410.520.930148Y
Dwight Evans347 293.7 51.8 - 345.3 .272.370.470.840127
Andre Dawson340 279.0 62.2 - 341.3 .279.323.482.806119
Bob Caruthers337 90.7 6.0 240.2 336.8 .282.391.400.791135
Willie Keeler333 284.6 48.6 - 333.1 .341.388.415.802127Y
Sam Rice327 268.8 54.0 2.1 325.1 .322.374.427.801112Y
Dave Parker327 281.6 42.8 - 324.5 .290.339.471.810121
Reggie Smith325 274.3 51.9 - 326.1 .287.366.489.855137
Enos Slaughter323 275.6 49.6 - 324.9 .300.382.453.834123Y
Harry Hooper321 268.5 53.1 0.3 321.7 .281.368.387.755114Y
Jack Clark316 289.2 26.5 - 315.3 .267.379.476.854137
Sammy Sosa309 267.8 42.5 - 309.6 .274.345.537.882129NA
Bobby Bonds302 259.2 42.6 - 302.0 .268.353.471.824130
Ken Singleton302 271.4 29.9 - 301.6 .282.388.436.824132
Larry Walker297 246.2 50.5 - 296.4 .313.400.565.965140NA
Kiki Cuyler292 243.1 47.8 - 290.8 .321.386.474.860125Y
Elmer Flick291 257.5 32.5 - 289.9 .313.389.445.834149Y
Dixie Walker278 234.9 44.2 - 279.4 .306.383.437.820121
King Kelly278 225.5 50.6 1.9 278.4 .308.368.438.806138Y
Bobby Murcer277 233.6 41.0 - 274.8 .277.357.445.802124
Manny Ramirez276 248.0 26.7 - 274.8 .314.409.5991.008156NA
Rocky Colavito273 233.9 36.7 1.1 272.0 .266.359.489.848132
Jose Canseco272 253.9 17.8 - 271.6 .266.353.515.867131
Ken Griffey259 226.4 32.6 - 258.8 .296.359.431.790118
Paul O'Neill259 213.6 41.6 - 255.2 .288.363.470.833120
Darryl Strawberry252 226.9 25.3 - 252.3 .259.357.505.862138
Mike Tiernan251 219.5 30.9 - 250.6 .311.392.463.854138
Chuck Klein238208.429.3 - 238.0 .320.379.543.922137Y
Sam Thompson236207.628.4 - 236.0 .331.384.505.888146Y
Ross Youngs206180.825.6 - 206.3 .322.399.441.839130Y
Tommy McCarthy170131.737.7 1.2 170.5 .292.364.376.740102Y

Sosa comes in 25th, behind seven guys who have been found wanting by the Hall voters at least yet far (including Bob Caruthers who might, and probably should, be considered a pitcher, but meets our criteria since he played more games collectively in the outfield than at pitcher). But one might argue the merits of Win Shares. Let's try something else.

The stat of choice today, at least for batters, is OPS. Let's use our set of outfielders and sort them by OPS:

PlayerWin Shares Bat WS Field WS Pitch WS Tot WS BAOBPSLUGOPSOPS+Hall?
Babe Ruth756 608.8 44.7 102.1 755.3 .342.474.6901.164207Y
Manny Ramirez276 248.0 26.7 - 274.8 .314.409.5991.008156NA
Larry Walker297 246.2 50.5 - 296.4 .313.400.565.965140NA
Mel Ott528 474.1 51.6 - 525.4 .304.414.533.947155Y
Harry Heilmann356 325.1 30.9 - 356.1 .342.410.520.930148Y
Hank Aaron643 573.4 67.2 - 640.5 .305.374.555.928155Y
Frank Robinson519 468.1 51.0 - 518.8 .294.389.537.926154Y
Gary Sheffield368 328.6 38.6 - 366.9 .297.399.527.925146NA
Chuck Klein238208.429.3 - 238.0 .320.379.543.922137Y
Sam Thompson236207.628.4 - 236.0 .331.384.505.888146Y
Sammy Sosa309 267.8 42.5 - 309.6 .274.345.537.882129NA
Paul Waner423 359.8 61.0 - 420.8 .333.404.473.878134Y
Jose Canseco272 253.9 17.8 - 271.6 .266.353.515.867131
Darryl Strawberry252 226.9 25.3 - 252.3 .259.357.505.862138
Kiki Cuyler292 243.1 47.8 - 290.8 .321.386.474.860125Y
Al Kaline443 382.9 58.5 - 441.6 .297.376.480.855134Y
Reggie Smith325 274.3 51.9 - 326.1 .287.366.489.855137
Jack Clark316 289.2 26.5 - 315.3 .267.379.476.854137
Mike Tiernan251 219.5 30.9 - 250.6 .311.392.463.854138
Rocky Colavito273 233.9 36.7 1.1 272.0 .266.359.489.848132
Tony Gwynn398 353.7 45.0 - 398.5 .338.388.459.847132NA
Reggie Jackson444 403.8 40.6 - 444.0 .262.356.490.846139Y
Dwight Evans347 293.7 51.8 - 345.3 .272.370.470.840127
Ross Youngs206180.825.6 - 206.3 .322.399.441.839130Y
Enos Slaughter323 275.6 49.6 - 324.9 .300.382.453.834123Y
Roberto Clemente377 316.5 59.4 - 375.8 .317.359.475.834130Y
Elmer Flick291 257.5 32.5 - 289.9 .313.389.445.834149Y
Paul O'Neill259 213.6 41.6 - 255.2 .288.363.470.833120
Dave Winfield415 373.1 41.0 - 414.5 .283.353.475.827129Y
Bobby Bonds302 259.2 42.6 - 302.0 .268.353.471.824130
Ken Singleton302 271.4 29.9 - 301.6 .282.388.436.824132
Dixie Walker278 234.9 44.2 - 279.4 .306.383.437.820121
Sam Crawford446 398.8 48.6 - 447.5 .309.362.452.814144Y
Dave Parker327 281.6 42.8 - 324.5 .290.339.471.810121
King Kelly278 225.5 50.6 1.9 278.4 .308.368.438.806138Y
Andre Dawson340 279.0 62.2 - 341.3 .279.323.482.806119
Willie Keeler333 284.6 48.6 - 333.1 .341.388.415.802127Y
Bobby Murcer277 233.6 41.0 - 274.8 .277.357.445.802124
Sam Rice327 268.8 54.0 2.1 325.1 .322.374.427.801112Y
Rusty Staub358 322.6 35.4 - 358.1 .279.362.431.793124
Bob Caruthers337 90.7 6.0 240.2 336.8 .282.391.400.791135
Ken Griffey259 226.4 32.6 - 258.8 .296.359.431.790118
Harry Hooper321 268.5 53.1 0.3 321.7 .281.368.387.755114Y
Tommy McCarthy170131.737.7 1.2 170.5 .292.364.376.740102Y

Sosa comes in 11th now, behind either players who are in the Hall already or are not yet eligible. However, Sosa also is from a high-OPS era. Let's use Baseball Reference's park-adjusted OPS (or OPS+) to compensate for era and park. Here goes:

PlayerWin Shares Bat WS Field WS Pitch WS BAOBPSLUGOPSOPS+Hall?
Babe Ruth756 608.8 44.7 102.1 .342.474.6901.164207Y
Manny Ramirez276 248.0 26.7 - .314.409.5991.008156NA
Mel Ott528 474.1 51.6 - .304.414.533.947155Y
Hank Aaron643 573.4 67.2 - .305.374.555.928155Y
Frank Robinson519 468.1 51.0 - .294.389.537.926154Y
Elmer Flick291 257.5 32.5 - .313.389.445.834149Y
Harry Heilmann356 325.1 30.9 - .342.410.520.930148Y
Gary Sheffield368 328.6 38.6 - .297.399.527.925146NA
Sam Thompson236207.628.4 - .331.384.505.888146Y
Sam Crawford446 398.8 48.6 - .309.362.452.814144Y
Larry Walker297 246.2 50.5 - .313.400.565.965140NA
Reggie Jackson444 403.8 40.6 - .262.356.490.846139Y
Darryl Strawberry252 226.9 25.3 - .259.357.505.862138
Mike Tiernan251 219.5 30.9 - .311.392.463.854138
King Kelly278 225.5 50.6 1.9 .308.368.438.806138Y
Chuck Klein238208.429.3 - .320.379.543.922137Y
Reggie Smith325 274.3 51.9 - .287.366.489.855137
Jack Clark316 289.2 26.5 - .267.379.476.854137
Bob Caruthers337 90.7 6.0 240.2 .282.391.400.791135
Paul Waner423 359.8 61.0 - .333.404.473.878134Y
Al Kaline443 382.9 58.5 - .297.376.480.855134Y
Rocky Colavito273 233.9 36.7 1.1 .266.359.489.848132
Tony Gwynn398 353.7 45.0 - .338.388.459.847132NA
Ken Singleton302 271.4 29.9 - .282.388.436.824132
Jose Canseco272 253.9 17.8 - .266.353.515.867131
Ross Youngs206180.825.6 - .322.399.441.839130Y
Roberto Clemente377 316.5 59.4 - .317.359.475.834130Y
Bobby Bonds302 259.2 42.6 - .268.353.471.824130
Sammy Sosa309 267.8 42.5 - .274.345.537.882129NA
Dave Winfield415 373.1 41.0 - .283.353.475.827129Y
Dwight Evans347 293.7 51.8 - .272.370.470.840127
Willie Keeler333 284.6 48.6 - .341.388.415.802127Y
Kiki Cuyler292 243.1 47.8 - .321.386.474.860125Y
Bobby Murcer277 233.6 41.0 - .277.357.445.802124
Rusty Staub358 322.6 35.4 - .279.362.431.793124
Enos Slaughter323 275.6 49.6 - .300.382.453.834123Y
Dixie Walker278 234.9 44.2 - .306.383.437.820121
Dave Parker327 281.6 42.8 - .290.339.471.810121
Paul O'Neill259 213.6 41.6 - .288.363.470.833120
Andre Dawson340 279.0 62.2 - .279.323.482.806119
Ken Griffey259 226.4 32.6 - .296.359.431.790118
Harry Hooper321 268.5 53.1 0.3 .281.368.387.755114Y
Sam Rice327 268.8 54.0 2.1 .322.374.427.801112Y
Tommy McCarthy170131.737.7 1.2 .292.364.376.740102Y

That drops Sosa to a virtual tie for 29th, albeit it with Hall-of-Famer Dave Winfield. OK, I'm not sure that told us anything more than we already knew: Sosa's stats look great on paper but are not so sabermetrically sound under the veneer. Well, maybe that's a bit facile. One could make the argument that Sosa is not in the top twenty right fielders of all time based on Win Shares and adjusted OPS. One could argue that that makes him a borderline Hall of Famer even though his Hall fate may depend more on how he was perceived outside of the stats.

Finally, here's the 500-homer club sorted by career Win Shares just for the heck of it. You may note that Sosa comes in last:

PlayerHRRBIWin Shares Bat WS Field WS Pitch WS
Babe Ruth7142217756 608.8 44.7 102.1
Barry Bonds7081853664 611.1 51.3 -
Hank Aaron7552297643 573.4 67.2 -
Willie Mays6601903642 538.1 104.2 -
Ken Griffey5361536598 512.8 86.3 -
Mickey Mantle5361509565 507.0 58.0 -
Ted Williams5211839555 512.3 44.0 0.1
Mel Ott5111860528 474.1 51.6 -
Frank Robinson5861812519 468.1 51.0 -
Mike Schmidt5481595467 378.3 88.0 -
Eddie Mathews5121453450 387.7 58.9 -
Reggie Jackson5631702444 403.8 40.6 -
Eddie Murray5041917437 397.5 37.0 -
Jimmie Foxx5341922435 386.4 46.2 2.1
Willie McCovey5211555408 379.7 27.1 -
Rafael Palmeiro5691835384 347.7 38.2 -
Harmon Killebrew5731584371 337.1 34.8 -
Mark McGwire5831414343 323.3 20.2 -
Ernie Banks5121636332 265.0 67.0 -
Sammy Sosa5881575309 267.8 42.5 -

As someone who's neutral in the Sosa Hall debate, I'll be interested in how Sammy gets handled. It starts with how the first steroid-laden class is perceived next year. If McGwire is kept out because of Andro, then anything can happen to Corkin' Sammy. Who knows, a new set of criteria incorporating personality traits could be adopted. It may be the sort of thing where a modern-day Ty Cobb would be kept out because of his moral turpitude. Whatever happens, it will get interesting and the voters could always use a new way to screw the Hall up.

Comments
2006-02-16 22:19:47
1.   das411
If you had told somebody in 1998 that Bruce Sutter would be a Hall of Famer and Sammy Sosa would not...

...hell, you could've told them that in 2003 and they still would not have believed you!

2006-02-17 07:38:54
2.   Cliff Corcoran
Mike, do you mean 1997 in paragraph 7?
2006-02-17 12:30:29
3.   Chris
I feel like I've seen a lot of guys like that: "peak walkers." Guys who could draw 60+ walks when pitchers were careful with them, but not keen-eyed or patient enough to do it when pitchers started going right after them. Gary Carter & Scott Brosius come to mind.
2006-02-17 12:58:32
4.   Mike Carminati
Cliff,

Oops, pronoun trouble. I did mean 1997.

Chris,

Interesting--like a Brady Anderson of walkers. Sounds like a study.

2006-02-18 09:01:07
5.   Suffering Bruin
1 Continuing with the theme, if you had said in 1998 that Reggie Smith end up statistically comparable to Sammy Sosa, people would've looked at you... well, funny.

Sammy Sosa will break Mark McGwire's record of having the most career homeruns for a player who didn't get in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. It's the writer's revenge for being made fools of in the steroid era.

2006-02-18 21:49:29
6.   das411
Oh btw Mike, is "Explosivo" a Tenacious D reference? I just DLed a few of their songs the other day, "Tribute", "Wonderboy", and a couple others I can't even begin to talk about here.

5 - But SB, do you think either will end up in there at all? Or will the Murray Chasses of the world hold their grudge for the full 15 years?

2006-02-18 22:22:28
7.   Suffering Bruin
6 I should've considered that but I honestly didn't.

Now that I'm a teacher, I might have a weird point of view. For now, I believe that we should honor the great players who got in on their own merits. I do not believe that McGwire or Sosa fit into that category. I think they both injected themselves with steroids and then lied their tails off. They probably are good guys and their rationalizations doubtless sounded good at the time. But I believe--nay, I'm very near to being convinced--that they cheated us and they cheated the game.

I might change my mind about all of this tomorrow. But it's the first time I considered it. If it means I have something in common with Murray Chass I might change my mind in the next half-hour.

2006-02-19 00:46:29
8.   das411
And it may be a little much to consider all at once, but then what do you say about somebody like Barry Bonds? Even if you assume he had a mysterious power spike begin in 2000, by then he was already 400-400 career and winner of 8 Gold Gloves with 3 (could easily have been 5) MVP awards. It could be argued that:

1) Pre-2000 Barry Bonds was already worthy of the HOF

2) his Gretzky-ian 2001-04 seasons put him head and shoulders above McGwire and Sosa who were never able to sustain such an elite level for so long,

3) (Rick Reilley) that all of his numbers could be tainted going back to 1986 and he's a mean SOB so he deserves to stay out

4) He has never denied or admitted taking anything illegal (see: Palmiero), for all we know he has been clean his entire career, and his attitude is understandable given the media (Skip Bayless, etc)'s bias against him, so if anything his accomplishments are even more incredible.

My favorite line from Bond's BBRef page:

HOF Monitor: Batting - 353.0 (6) (Likely HOFer > 100)

I have a feeling whatever the voters decide on McGwire next year could be the ultimate fate of Sosa, Palmiero, and much of the post-1993 generation. If there are any exceptions to that, his name is Barry Bonds.

2006-02-19 00:57:05
9.   das411
To address Mike's final paragraph: How much of this moral picture may change between 2007 when McGwire is eligible and 2011 (at least) when Sosa is? When he retired McGwire looked like a HOF lock, as did Sosa and Palmiero before 2005, now it seems all three may end up on the outside looking in for at least one vote.

But then does a Sosa or Palmiero with 550 career HRs but the "character" cloud become less worthy than a Fred McGriff or Frank Thomas with 450 HRs but every indication of having gotten them cleanly? This is an interesting debate to have, I hope this is kind of what Mike was expecting and not a total hijack!

Finally, there is always the example of the last steroid-suspicious slugger who retired rather than take a lowball offer to play for MTL/WSH, he has made some interesting post-retirement decisions and will be HOF-eligible next year also and I would argue changed the game much more than Sosa did: http://tinyurl.com/7dcjc

2006-02-19 08:35:25
10.   The Real Neal
'The prototype for these years was 1997 in my opinion.'
'He stole 22 bases but got caught 64% of the time '

Huh? That would actually mean he got caught 35% of the time. Even allowing that you meant to say 'successful 64% of the time" you still have a rounding error. In 1997 Sammy had his lowest batting average in 5 years, his lowest OBP in 5 years and his lowest slugging in 4 and his lowest OBP+ in 4 years. In 1996 he was leading the Major Leagues in homers (on pace for 52HR's and 131 RBI's- Caminitti won the MVP with 40 HR's 130 RBI's and a big box of syringes) when he got hit by a pitch which ended his season and the Cubs playoff chances.

To set the record straight,for the 5 years prior to 1998 (one injury shortened and 2 strike shortened) his average line was:
.268 .317 .511 .827 the league OPS over the same time was .762

For a 162 game season his 'counting stats' averaged out to:
2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SB%
26 5 40 117 47 156 31 11 .733

He had a string of 304 consecutive games played when the pitch from Mark Hutton so, so using 162 games as referrence isn't quite wishcasting.

Really the only argument to be presented against him is 'he didn't walk enough'. That's fine, but what do these players all have in common?
Bagwell, Palmeiro, Bonds & Griffey- Sammy Sosa drove in more runs per PA than any of them.

Win Shares... Maybe something is wrong with the formula when it comes up with Brandon Webb, Chad Tracy, Craig Counsel, Tony Clark, Troy Glaus and Louis Gonzalez being more valuable than Chris Carpenter for 2005. Just how many games did the D-backs win?

Mike, because you're so saber-savy could you explain to me how the 1996 Cubs scored essentially the same # of runs as the 1996 Braves even though they were out batted by .019 out OBP'd by .017 and out slugged by .033?

2006-02-20 18:59:24
11.   Rick Houston TX
I think a special "Steroids Wing" should be built in Cooperstown and Hall of Fame voters should decide whether McGwire, Sosa, Bonds and Palmiero should be the first four members of this special wing.
2006-02-22 17:58:01
12.   Mike Carminati
das411,

I almost forget...Yes, that is a JB & KG, that is, Tenacious D, reference. "This is a tribute."

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.