Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
After my little Sammy Sosa's study yesterday, I was asked to tailor it a bit more to his career. So here goes. I limited the field to players who were at least 36 years old, had a sub-.700 OPS one year, but also had an OPS that was at least .800 the year prior to that and a .900 OPS two years before. That is a .900 OPS year, an .800 OPS, and then a sub-.700 OPS.
The field is extremely narrow and includes a dude named Estel:
Name | Yr1 | Age | G | AB | BA | OBP | SLUG | OPS | Yr2 | AB | BA | OBP | SLUG | OPS | OPS change |
Willie McCovey | 1976 | 38 | 82 | 226 | .204 | .283 | .336 | .619 | 1977 | 478 | .280 | .367 | .500 | .867 | .248 |
Estel Crabtree | 1943 | 39 | 95 | 254 | .276 | .345 | .346 | .692 | 1944 | 98 | .286 | .369 | .347 | .716 | .025 |
Charlie Gehringer | 1941 | 38 | 127 | 436 | .220 | .363 | .303 | .666 | 1942 | 45 | .267 | .365 | .333 | .699 | .033 |
Hank Aaron | 1975 | 41 | 137 | 465 | .234 | .332 | .355 | .687 | 1976 | 271 | .229 | .315 | .369 | .684 | -.003 |
John Lowenstein | 1984 | 37 | 105 | 270 | .237 | .319 | .374 | .693 | 1985 | 26 | .077 | .138 | .077 | .215 | -.478 |
Average | 39 | 109 | 330 | .234 | .329 | .343 | .671 | 1965 | 184 | .228 | .311 | .325 | .636 | -.035 |
I'm not sure what five players tell us, but a) three are Hall of Famers and b) McCovey is the only one who had much of comeback after his sub-.700 season. On average they declined by 35 points though much of that can be attributed to Lowenstein's demise.
OK, I can't think of another way to slice it. History just isn't on Sosa's side here.
Lowenstein was one of Earl Weaver's great platoon recreation projects with the likes of Jim Dwyer and Benny Ayala.
As for Sebadoh, I don't know if there's been a Lowenstein in the band, but Harmacy kicks A's.
What this suggests is we've sliced it too thin to come to anything different than what you concluded before. Will Sosa's performance improve (or decline) significantly? Not very likely.
Besides if Sosa remains about the same or declines slightly, that ain't good.
He turned down the Nats. Maybe a part-time DH job with the Yanks is in the offing.
That isn't funny. We've already got an old, over the hill DH in Bernie, plus a thin bench (what with 12 pitchers.)
Maybe Sammy can hit #600 while wearing a Devil Rays' uniform.
Dump him on the Royals or somethin, geez!
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