Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Mike's Baseball Rants


10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Sammy and the Nats, II—Goodbye Goldbricker Road
2006-02-14 21:39
by Mike Carminati

After my little Sammy Sosa's study yesterday, I was asked to tailor it a bit more to his career. So here goes. I limited the field to players who were at least 36 years old, had a sub-.700 OPS one year, but also had an OPS that was at least .800 the year prior to that and a .900 OPS two years before. That is a .900 OPS year, an .800 OPS, and then a sub-.700 OPS.

The field is extremely narrow and includes a dude named Estel:

Willie McCovey19763882226.204.283.336.6191977478.280.367.500.867.248
Estel Crabtree19433995254.276.345.346.692194498.286.369.347.716.025
Charlie Gehringer194138127436.220.363.303.666194245.267.365.333.699.033
Hank Aaron197541137465.234.332.355.6871976271.229.315.369.684-.003
John Lowenstein198437105270.237.319.374.693198526.
Average 39109330.234.329.343.6711965184.228.311.325.636-.035

I'm not sure what five players tell us, but a) three are Hall of Famers and b) McCovey is the only one who had much of comeback after his sub-.700 season. On average they declined by 35 points though much of that can be attributed to Lowenstein's demise.

OK, I can't think of another way to slice it. History just isn't on Sosa's side here.

2006-02-15 00:27:48
1.   das411
Isn't there a John Lowenstein in sebadoh?
2006-02-15 05:49:24
2.   Mike Carminati
That's where the term Lo(wenstein)-Fi came from, right?

Lowenstein was one of Earl Weaver's great platoon recreation projects with the likes of Jim Dwyer and Benny Ayala.

As for Sebadoh, I don't know if there's been a Lowenstein in the band, but Harmacy kicks A's.

2006-02-15 11:16:06
3.   Mike from Hoboken
Undoubtedly, this is the first time Estel Crabtree and John Lowenstein have been metioned in the same context.
2006-02-15 13:58:55
4.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
Ah, so now we have a sample size problem, and I still wouldn't look at the average. It's clearly a strange pattern: McCovey- renaissance, Lowenstein-crash, the other three about the same as before.

What this suggests is we've sliced it too thin to come to anything different than what you concluded before. Will Sosa's performance improve (or decline) significantly? Not very likely.

2006-02-15 18:08:22
5.   Mike Carminati
Yeah, but it was fun.

Besides if Sosa remains about the same or declines slightly, that ain't good.

He turned down the Nats. Maybe a part-time DH job with the Yanks is in the offing.

2006-02-16 10:18:25
6.   rbj
That isn't funny. We've already got an old, over the hill DH in Bernie, plus a thin bench (what with 12 pitchers.)
Maybe Sammy can hit #600 while wearing a Devil Rays' uniform.
2006-02-16 21:23:01
7.   das411
Why would Tampa pick up Sosa when they have an OF of Crawford, Baldelli, Gomes, and The Delmon lined up for 2006?

Dump him on the Royals or somethin, geez!

2006-02-17 08:41:40
8.   rbj
Point taken, das411. I was just thinking of exiling Sammy to someplace bad for a reality check. KC works for me.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.