Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
As for the prospective 2007 BBWAA Hall ballot, below are the returning vets followed by the potential newcomers. For each, the Bill James Hall criteria are listed along with the player's career Win Shares (the Hall average is now about 337 WS) and the number of similar players who are in the Hall. Then each player is evaluated by how many of these tests he passed. Then we will look at how each of the players have fared in the Hall voting over the last five seasons and overall. Finally, I'll try to predict each player's Hall fate.
First let's look at the players and how they did with the black and grey ink tests:
| Name | First Year | Yrs Elig Left | Black Ink (Avg 40 P, 27 B) | >HOF Avg | Gray Ink (Avg 185 P, 144 B) | >HOF Avg |
| Albert Belle | 2006 | 14 | 28 | Yes | 137 | No |
| Bert Blyleven | 1999 | 7 | 16 | No | 239 | Yes |
| Dave Concepcion | 1994 | 2 | 0 | No | 25 | No |
| Andre Dawson | 2002 | 10 | 11 | No | 164 | Yes |
| Steve Garvey | 1993 | 1 | 12 | No | 142 | No |
| Rich Gossage | 2000 | 8 | 9 | No | 41 | No |
| Orel Hershiser | 2006 | 14 | 20 | No | 129 | No |
| Tommy John | 1995 | 3 | 8 | No | 137 | No |
| Don Mattingly | 2001 | 9 | 23 | No | 111 | No |
| Jack Morris | 2000 | 8 | 20 | No | 190 | Yes |
| Dale Murphy | 1999 | 7 | 31 | Yes | 147 | Yes |
| Dave Parker | 1997 | 5 | 26 | No | 145 | Yes |
| Jim Rice | 1995 | 3 | 33 | Yes | 176 | Yes |
| Lee Smith | 2003 | 11 | 12 | No | 48 | No |
| Alan Trammell | 2002 | 10 | 0 | No | 48 | No |
| 2001 retirees | First Year | Yrs Elig Left | Black Ink (Avg 40 P, 27 B) | >HOF Avg | Gray Ink (Avg 185 P, 144 B) | >HOF Avg |
| Cal Ripken Jr. | 2007 | 15 | 19 | No | 116 | No |
| Tony Gwynn | 2007 | 15 | 57 | Yes | 155 | Yes |
| Mark McGwire | 2007 | 15 | 36 | Yes | 110 | No |
| Harold Baines | 2007 | 15 | 3 | No | 40 | No |
| Tony Fernandez | 2007 | 15 | 3 | No | 51 | No |
| Jose Canseco | 2007 | 15 | 15 | No | 93 | No |
| Bobby Bonilla | 2007 | 15 | 3 | No | 96 | No |
| Paul O'Neill | 2007 | 15 | 4 | No | 45 | No |
| Wally Joyner | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 16 | No |
| Ken Caminiti | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 28 | No |
| Eric Davis | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 61 | No |
| Devon White | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 41 | No |
| Bret Saberhagen | 2007 | 15 | 20 | No | 124 | No |
| Jay Buhner | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 31 | No |
| Dante Bichette | 2007 | 15 | 19 | No | 81 | No |
| Dave Martinez | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 4 | No |
| Dave Magadan | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 10 | No |
| Stan Javier | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 4 | No |
| Bernard Gilkey | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 17 | No |
| Darryl Hamilton | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 8 | No |
| Kevin Tapani | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 48 | No |
| Charlie Hayes | 2007 | 15 | 2 | No | 10 | No |
| Ken Hill | 2007 | 15 | 5 | No | 53 | No |
| Derek Bell | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 26 | No |
| Scott Brosius | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 0 | No |
| Mike Lansing | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 6 | No |
| Ramon Martinez | 2007 | 15 | 3 | No | 78 | No |
| Bobby Witt | 2007 | 15 | 0 | No | 33 | No |
| Pete Harnisch | 2007 | 15 | 5 | No | 52 | No |
Next are the Hall Standard and Monitor tests and a test for if at least half of the player's similar batters/pitchers are in the Hall:
| Name | HOF Standard (Avg 50) | >HOF Avg | HOF Monitor (Likely >100) | Likely HOF? | Similar in Hall >50% |
| Albert Belle | 36.1 | No | 134.5 | Yes | No |
| Bert Blyleven | 50.0 | Yes | 120.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Dave Concepcion | 29.1 | No | 106.5 | Yes | No |
| Andre Dawson | 43.7 | No | 118.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Steve Garvey | 31.5 | No | 130.5 | Yes | No |
| Rich Gossage | 19.0 | No | 126.0 | Yes | No |
| Orel Hershiser | 34.0 | No | 90.5 | No | No |
| Tommy John | 44.0 | No | 111.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Don Mattingly | 34.1 | No | 133.5 | Yes | No |
| Jack Morris | 39.0 | No | 122.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Dale Murphy | 34.3 | No | 115.5 | Yes | No |
| Dave Parker | 41.1 | No | 125.5 | Yes | No |
| Jim Rice | 42.9 | No | 146.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Lee Smith | 13.0 | No | 136.0 | Yes | No |
| Alan Trammell | 40.4 | No | 118.5 | Yes | No |
| 2001 retirees | HOF Standard (Avg 50) | >HOF Avg | HOF Monitor (Likely >100) | Likely HOF? | Similar in Hall >50% |
| Cal Ripken Jr. | 58.3 | Yes | 236.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Tony Gwynn | 53.9 | Yes | 277.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Mark McGwire | 42.0 | No | 169.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Harold Baines | 43.5 | No | 66.5 | No | No |
| Tony Fernandez | 31.5 | No | 74.0 | No | No |
| Jose Canseco | 38.1 | No | 103.0 | Yes | Yes |
| Bobby Bonilla | 32.0 | No | 64.5 | No | No |
| Paul O'Neill | 36.9 | No | 70.5 | No | No |
| Wally Joyner | 24.9 | No | 27.5 | No | No |
| Ken Caminiti | 24.8 | No | 38.0 | No | No |
| Eric Davis | 26.8 | No | 27.5 | No | No |
| Devon White | 21.3 | No | 34.5 | No | No |
| Bret Saberhagen | 32.0 | No | 70.5 | No | No |
| Jay Buhner | 25.8 | No | 34.5 | No | No |
| Dante Bichette | 30.5 | No | 82.0 | No | No |
| Dave Martinez | 12.7 | No | 5.0 | No | No |
| Dave Magadan | 20.2 | No | 7.5 | No | No |
| Stan Javier | 12.9 | No | 4.0 | No | No |
| Bernard Gilkey | 14.5 | No | 17.5 | No | No |
| Darryl Hamilton | 18.3 | No | 12.0 | No | No |
| Kevin Tapani | 15.0 | No | 15.0 | No | No |
| Charlie Hayes | 11.4 | No | 5.5 | No | No |
| Ken Hill | 5.0 | No | 19.0 | No | No |
| Derek Bell | 15.0 | No | 18.5 | No | No |
| Scott Brosius | 12.6 | No | 19.0 | No | No |
| Mike Lansing | 16.9 | No | 4.0 | No | No |
| Ramon Martinez | 22.0 | No | 30.5 | No | No |
| Bobby Witt | 11.0 | No | 7.0 | No | No |
| Pete Harnisch | 10.0 | No | 10.0 | No | No |
Here are the career Win Shares for each potential candidate, a test for whether it is at least the Hall WS average, and finally the percentage of tests passed for each candidate. As for as % Passed, Hershiser is the only returning candidate with a big goose egg. Of the new candidates, Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire, and Canseco are the only ones to pass any test. Gwynn is the only one to pass all of the tests:
| Name | Win Shares | > HOF Avg (336.89) | % Passed |
| Albert Belle | 243 | No | 33% |
| Bert Blyleven | 339 | Yes | 83% |
| Dave Concepcion | 269 | No | 17% |
| Andre Dawson | 340 | Yes | 67% |
| Steve Garvey | 279 | No | 17% |
| Rich Gossage | 223 | No | 17% |
| Orel Hershiser | 210 | No | 0% |
| Tommy John | 289 | No | 33% |
| Don Mattingly | 263 | No | 17% |
| Jack Morris | 225 | No | 50% |
| Dale Murphy | 294 | No | 50% |
| Dave Parker | 327 | No | 33% |
| Jim Rice | 282 | No | 67% |
| Lee Smith | 198 | No | 17% |
| Alan Trammell | 318 | No | 17% |
| 2001 retirees | Win Shares | > HOF Avg (336.89) | % Passed |
| Cal Ripken Jr. | 427 | Yes | 67% |
| Tony Gwynn | 398 | Yes | 100% |
| Mark McGwire | 343 | Yes | 67% |
| Harold Baines | 307 | No | 0% |
| Tony Fernandez | 280 | No | 0% |
| Jose Canseco | 272 | No | 33% |
| Bobby Bonilla | 267 | No | 0% |
| Paul O'Neill | 259 | No | 0% |
| Wally Joyner | 253 | No | 0% |
| Ken Caminiti | 242 | No | 0% |
| Eric Davis | 224 | No | 0% |
| Devon White | 207 | No | 0% |
| Bret Saberhagen | 193 | No | 0% |
| Jay Buhner | 174 | No | 0% |
| Dante Bichette | 168 | No | 0% |
| Dave Martinez | 147 | No | 0% |
| Dave Magadan | 147 | No | 0% |
| Stan Javier | 137 | No | 0% |
| Bernard Gilkey | 131 | No | 0% |
| Darryl Hamilton | 130 | No | 0% |
| Kevin Tapani | 124 | No | 0% |
| Charlie Hayes | 116 | No | 0% |
| Ken Hill | 112 | No | 0% |
| Derek Bell | 111 | No | 0% |
| Scott Brosius | 111 | No | 0% |
| Mike Lansing | 110 | No | 0% |
| Ramon Martinez | 110 | No | 0% |
| Bobby Witt | 103 | No | 0% |
| Pete Harnisch | 100 | No | 0% |
Here are the voting results for candidates returning for the 2007 ballot:
| Name | 2002 HOF% | 2003 HoF% | 2004 HoF% | 2005 HoF% | 2006 HoF% | High? |
| Albert Belle | 7.69% | 7.69% | ||||
| Bert Blyleven | 26.27 | 29.23 | 35.38% | 40.89% | 53.27% | 53.27% |
| Dave Concepcion | 11.86 | 10.28 | 11.26% | 10.66% | 12.50% | 16.91% |
| Andre Dawson | 45.34 | 50.00 | 50.00% | 52.33% | 60.96% | 60.96% |
| Steve Garvey | 28.39 | 27.82 | 24.31% | 20.54% | 25.96% | 42.61% |
| Rich Gossage | 43.01 | 42.14 | 40.71% | 55.23% | 64.62% | 64.62% |
| Orel Hershiser | 11.15% | 11.15% | ||||
| Tommy John | 26.91 | 23.39 | 21.94% | 23.84% | 29.62% | 29.62% |
| Don Mattingly | 20.34 | 13.71 | 12.85% | 11.43% | 12.31% | 28.16% |
| Jack Morris | 20.55 | 22.78 | 26.28% | 33.33% | 41.15% | 41.15% |
| Dale Murphy | 14.83 | 11.69 | 8.50% | 10.47% | 10.77% | 23.25% |
| Dave Parker | 13.98 | 10.28 | 10.47% | 12.60% | 14.42% | 24.52% |
| Jim Rice | 55.08 | 52.22 | 54.55% | 59.50% | 64.81% | 64.81% |
| Lee Smith | 42.34 | 36.56% | 38.76% | 45.00% | 45.00% | |
| Alan Trammell | 15.68 | 14.11 | 13.83% | 16.86% | 17.69% | 17.69% |
Finally, I attempt to handicap the Hall of Fame prospects for each candidate:
| Name | Verdict |
| Albert Belle | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Bert Blyleven | By 2010 |
| Dave Concepcion | Veterans' Committee |
| Andre Dawson | 2008 or '09 |
| Steve Garvey | Veterans' Committee |
| Rich Gossage | 2008 or '09 |
| Orel Hershiser | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Tommy John | Veterans' Committee |
| Don Mattingly | Veterans' Committee |
| Jack Morris | Maybe by BBWAA, if not, Veterans' Committee |
| Dale Murphy | Veterans' Committee; Dropped by BBWAA by 2008 |
| Dave Parker | Veterans' Committee |
| Jim Rice | 2007 inductee |
| Lee Smith | Maybe by BBWAA, if not, Veterans' Committee |
| Alan Trammell | Veterans' Committee |
| 2001 retirees | Verdict |
| Cal Ripken Jr. | 2007 inductee |
| Tony Gwynn | 2007 inductee |
| Mark McGwire | After does 1-2 years of penance |
| Harold Baines | Remain on Ballot |
| Tony Fernandez | Remain on Ballot |
| Jose Canseco | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Bobby Bonilla | Remain on Ballot |
| Paul O'Neill | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Wally Joyner | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Ken Caminiti | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Eric Davis | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Devon White | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Bret Saberhagen | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Jay Buhner | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Dante Bichette | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Dave Martinez | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Dave Magadan | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Stan Javier | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Bernard Gilkey | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Darryl Hamilton | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Kevin Tapani | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Charlie Hayes | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Ken Hill | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Derek Bell | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Scott Brosius | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Mike Lansing | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Ramon Martinez | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Bobby Witt | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
| Pete Harnisch | Dropped by BBWAA in 2007 |
Without doing any polling or asking around, I'd be willing to bet Paul O'Neill stays on the ballot for at least a year. His numbers aren't obviously un-Hall-worthy, if that makes any sense. He's got the rings, he's a New York fan favorite, he's known as a great guy, and I wonder how many of the writers will vote for him on the basis of O'Neill's being the type of unoffensive ballplayer they wish everyone was.
Also, it kills me that Albert Belle, a guy who was arguably one of the three best hitters in baseball for an eight year period, and had one of the most dynamic seasons anyone's ever had (1995) is so close to being dropped.
No way does Canseco drop off the ballot after one year. He still has some amazing counting stats. Oh, what could have been (thanks to the wonders of modern pharmacology!)
I just don't see the voters going near-unanimous on two certified ICONS of the game, 20+ year careers each with one team, both with 3,000 hits, both with huge feel-good farewell tours in 2001...and then letting a much less impressive player like Rice in also.
I think you may have posted this before but what does the 2008 class look like? Maybe that will be a miscellaneous class like this year was...
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