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Let Chaos Storm!—Previewing the 2007 Hall of Fame Vote, Part II
2006-01-13 12:04
by Mike Carminati

Part I

As for the prospective 2007 BBWAA Hall ballot, below are the returning vets followed by the potential newcomers. For each, the Bill James Hall criteria are listed along with the player's career Win Shares (the Hall average is now about 337 WS) and the number of similar players who are in the Hall. Then each player is evaluated by how many of these tests he passed. Then we will look at how each of the players have fared in the Hall voting over the last five seasons and overall. Finally, I'll try to predict each player's Hall fate.

First let's look at the players and how they did with the black and grey ink tests:

NameFirst YearYrs Elig LeftBlack Ink (Avg 40 P, 27 B)>HOF AvgGray Ink (Avg 185 P, 144 B)>HOF Avg
Albert Belle20061428Yes137No
Bert Blyleven1999716No239Yes
Dave Concepcion199420No25No
Andre Dawson20021011No164Yes
Steve Garvey1993112No142No
Rich Gossage200089No41No
Orel Hershiser20061420No129No
Tommy John199538No137No
Don Mattingly2001923No111No
Jack Morris2000820No190Yes
Dale Murphy1999731Yes147Yes
Dave Parker1997526No145Yes
Jim Rice1995333Yes176Yes
Lee Smith20031112No48No
Alan Trammell2002100No48No
2001 retireesFirst YearYrs Elig LeftBlack Ink (Avg 40 P, 27 B)>HOF AvgGray Ink (Avg 185 P, 144 B)>HOF Avg
Cal Ripken Jr.20071519No116No
Tony Gwynn20071557Yes155Yes
Mark McGwire20071536Yes110No
Harold Baines2007153No40No
Tony Fernandez2007153No51No
Jose Canseco20071515No93No
Bobby Bonilla2007153No96No
Paul O'Neill2007154No45No
Wally Joyner2007150No16No
Ken Caminiti2007150No28No
Eric Davis2007150No61No
Devon White2007150No41No
Bret Saberhagen20071520No124No
Jay Buhner2007150No31No
Dante Bichette20071519No81No
Dave Martinez2007150No4No
Dave Magadan2007150No10No
Stan Javier2007150No4No
Bernard Gilkey2007150No17No
Darryl Hamilton2007150No8No
Kevin Tapani2007150No48No
Charlie Hayes2007152No10No
Ken Hill2007155No53No
Derek Bell2007150No26No
Scott Brosius2007150No0No
Mike Lansing2007150No6No
Ramon Martinez2007153No78No
Bobby Witt2007150No33No
Pete Harnisch2007155No52No

Next are the Hall Standard and Monitor tests and a test for if at least half of the player's similar batters/pitchers are in the Hall:

NameHOF Standard (Avg 50)>HOF AvgHOF Monitor (Likely >100)Likely HOF? Similar in Hall >50%
Albert Belle36.1No134.5YesNo
Bert Blyleven50.0Yes120.5YesYes
Dave Concepcion29.1No106.5YesNo
Andre Dawson43.7No118.0YesYes
Steve Garvey31.5No130.5YesNo
Rich Gossage19.0No126.0YesNo
Orel Hershiser34.0No90.5NoNo
Tommy John44.0No111.0YesYes
Don Mattingly34.1No133.5YesNo
Jack Morris39.0No122.5YesYes
Dale Murphy34.3No115.5YesNo
Dave Parker41.1No125.5YesNo
Jim Rice42.9No146.5YesYes
Lee Smith13.0No136.0YesNo
Alan Trammell40.4No118.5YesNo
2001 retireesHOF Standard (Avg 50)>HOF AvgHOF Monitor (Likely >100)Likely HOF? Similar in Hall >50%
Cal Ripken Jr.58.3Yes236.0YesYes
Tony Gwynn53.9Yes277.5YesYes
Mark McGwire42.0No169.5YesYes
Harold Baines43.5No66.5NoNo
Tony Fernandez31.5No74.0NoNo
Jose Canseco38.1No103.0YesYes
Bobby Bonilla32.0No64.5NoNo
Paul O'Neill36.9No70.5NoNo
Wally Joyner24.9No27.5NoNo
Ken Caminiti24.8No38.0NoNo
Eric Davis26.8No27.5NoNo
Devon White21.3No34.5NoNo
Bret Saberhagen32.0No70.5NoNo
Jay Buhner25.8No34.5NoNo
Dante Bichette30.5No82.0NoNo
Dave Martinez12.7No5.0NoNo
Dave Magadan20.2No7.5NoNo
Stan Javier12.9No4.0NoNo
Bernard Gilkey14.5No17.5NoNo
Darryl Hamilton18.3No12.0NoNo
Kevin Tapani15.0No15.0NoNo
Charlie Hayes11.4No5.5NoNo
Ken Hill5.0No19.0NoNo
Derek Bell15.0No18.5NoNo
Scott Brosius12.6No19.0NoNo
Mike Lansing16.9No4.0NoNo
Ramon Martinez22.0No30.5NoNo
Bobby Witt11.0No 7.0 NoNo
Pete Harnisch10.0No 10.0 NoNo

Here are the career Win Shares for each potential candidate, a test for whether it is at least the Hall WS average, and finally the percentage of tests passed for each candidate. As for as % Passed, Hershiser is the only returning candidate with a big goose egg. Of the new candidates, Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire, and Canseco are the only ones to pass any test. Gwynn is the only one to pass all of the tests:

NameWin Shares> HOF Avg (336.89)% Passed
Albert Belle243No33%
Bert Blyleven339Yes83%
Dave Concepcion269No17%
Andre Dawson340Yes67%
Steve Garvey279No17%
Rich Gossage223No17%
Orel Hershiser210No0%
Tommy John289No33%
Don Mattingly263No17%
Jack Morris225No50%
Dale Murphy294No50%
Dave Parker327No33%
Jim Rice282No67%
Lee Smith198No17%
Alan Trammell318No17%
2001 retireesWin Shares> HOF Avg (336.89)% Passed
Cal Ripken Jr.427Yes67%
Tony Gwynn398Yes100%
Mark McGwire343Yes67%
Harold Baines307No0%
Tony Fernandez280No0%
Jose Canseco272No33%
Bobby Bonilla267No0%
Paul O'Neill259No0%
Wally Joyner253No0%
Ken Caminiti242No0%
Eric Davis224No0%
Devon White207No0%
Bret Saberhagen193No0%
Jay Buhner174No0%
Dante Bichette168No0%
Dave Martinez147No0%
Dave Magadan147No0%
Stan Javier137No0%
Bernard Gilkey131No0%
Darryl Hamilton130No0%
Kevin Tapani124No0%
Charlie Hayes116No0%
Ken Hill112No0%
Derek Bell111No0%
Scott Brosius111No0%
Mike Lansing110No0%
Ramon Martinez110No0%
Bobby Witt103No0%
Pete Harnisch100No0%

Here are the voting results for candidates returning for the 2007 ballot:

Name2002 HOF%2003 HoF%2004 HoF%2005 HoF%2006 HoF%High?
Albert Belle7.69%7.69%
Bert Blyleven26.2729.2335.38%40.89%53.27%53.27%
Dave Concepcion11.8610.2811.26%10.66%12.50%16.91%
Andre Dawson45.3450.0050.00%52.33%60.96%60.96%
Steve Garvey28.3927.8224.31%20.54%25.96%42.61%
Rich Gossage43.0142.1440.71%55.23%64.62%64.62%
Orel Hershiser11.15%11.15%
Tommy John26.9123.3921.94%23.84%29.62%29.62%
Don Mattingly20.3413.7112.85%11.43%12.31%28.16%
Jack Morris20.5522.7826.28%33.33%41.15%41.15%
Dale Murphy14.8311.698.50%10.47%10.77%23.25%
Dave Parker13.9810.2810.47%12.60%14.42%24.52%
Jim Rice55.0852.2254.55%59.50%64.81%64.81%
Lee Smith42.3436.56%38.76%45.00%45.00%
Alan Trammell15.6814.1113.83%16.86%17.69%17.69%

Finally, I attempt to handicap the Hall of Fame prospects for each candidate:

NameVerdict
Albert BelleDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Bert BlylevenBy 2010
Dave ConcepcionVeterans' Committee
Andre Dawson2008 or '09
Steve GarveyVeterans' Committee
Rich Gossage2008 or '09
Orel HershiserDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Tommy JohnVeterans' Committee
Don MattinglyVeterans' Committee
Jack MorrisMaybe by BBWAA, if not, Veterans' Committee
Dale MurphyVeterans' Committee; Dropped by BBWAA by 2008
Dave ParkerVeterans' Committee
Jim Rice2007 inductee
Lee SmithMaybe by BBWAA, if not, Veterans' Committee
Alan TrammellVeterans' Committee
2001 retireesVerdict
Cal Ripken Jr.2007 inductee
Tony Gwynn2007 inductee
Mark McGwireAfter does 1-2 years of penance
Harold BainesRemain on Ballot
Tony FernandezRemain on Ballot
Jose CansecoDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Bobby BonillaRemain on Ballot
Paul O'NeillDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Wally JoynerDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Ken CaminitiDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Eric DavisDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Devon WhiteDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Bret SaberhagenDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Jay BuhnerDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Dante BichetteDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Dave MartinezDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Dave MagadanDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Stan JavierDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Bernard GilkeyDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Darryl HamiltonDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Kevin TapaniDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Charlie HayesDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Ken HillDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Derek BellDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Scott BrosiusDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Mike LansingDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Ramon MartinezDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Bobby WittDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Pete HarnischDropped by BBWAA in 2007
Comments
2006-01-13 14:39:51
1.   deadteddy8
Just a couple thoughts...

Without doing any polling or asking around, I'd be willing to bet Paul O'Neill stays on the ballot for at least a year. His numbers aren't obviously un-Hall-worthy, if that makes any sense. He's got the rings, he's a New York fan favorite, he's known as a great guy, and I wonder how many of the writers will vote for him on the basis of O'Neill's being the type of unoffensive ballplayer they wish everyone was.

Also, it kills me that Albert Belle, a guy who was arguably one of the three best hitters in baseball for an eight year period, and had one of the most dynamic seasons anyone's ever had (1995) is so close to being dropped.

2006-01-13 16:21:56
2.   misterjohnny
I think you are too generous with the veterans committee. I'm not sure Rice gets in before McGwire, although I do believe McGwire won't get in on his first ballot.

No way does Canseco drop off the ballot after one year. He still has some amazing counting stats. Oh, what could have been (thanks to the wonders of modern pharmacology!)

2006-01-13 18:18:23
3.   das411
And is there any reason why Jim Rice gets so much media love for being "a dominant player during a 6-8 year span" and Albert Belle doesn't, except for rampant East Coast bias?

I just don't see the voters going near-unanimous on two certified ICONS of the game, 20+ year careers each with one team, both with 3,000 hits, both with huge feel-good farewell tours in 2001...and then letting a much less impressive player like Rice in also.

I think you may have posted this before but what does the 2008 class look like? Maybe that will be a miscellaneous class like this year was...

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