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The Year Of Ryan Franklin
2006-01-05 20:51
by Mike Carminati

The Phils today filled their last rotation spot by signing a big-name free-agent pitcher.

Was it the Rocket, Roger Clemens, you ask. Kevin Brown? Wade Miller? Scotty Erickson? Jose Lima? Al Leiter? Jeff Weaver? It aint Wendell Wilkie?

No, it was Ryan Franklin! The sucky pitcher who was suspended for steroid use, you ask? Yes, that's the guy. The Phils are giving him $2.6M for one year's worth of work. I'd be happier if they had signed this Franklin (Roosevelt, that is):

Or even this Franklin.

And I thought Ed Wade hated young players. Pat Gillick have four viable choices amongst the youngsters for the final two rotations spots. They are Ryan Madson, Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito, and Gavin Floyd. Floyd tanked last year in a brief trial gut has been considered a top prospect for years. Brito and Tejeda were non-prospects who pitched well in brief trials. And Madson was the staff savior for about a year and a half (until the Phils over-relied and overused him last year) and deserves a shot at the rotation.

So who does Pat Gillick—a man for whom I have less respect as each day passes—nab to bolster his staff? A guy who was 8-15 with a 5.10 ERA who struck out just 4.39 strikeouts in nine innings and had just 1.5 strikeouts per base on balls (plus the suspension) in 2005. And his 2004 wasn't much better (4-16, 4.90).

But to "(I Can't) Stand" Pat Gillick, Franklin was a "durable" "competitor who pitches deep into ballgames and has been a consistent starter in the American League for the last few years." Consistent? Yeah, consistently execrable.

I wondered how many pitchers lost 15 games or more and had an ERA over 4.50 for two straight years like Franklin has done. And for those pitchers, what have they done the next season (Franklin is only signed for a year) and for the rest of their careers?

I looked it up. There have been 32 pitchers, only five of whom have done it in the last fifty years. Here they are in reverse chronological order with the two years (Yr1 & Yr2) that qualify him for the dubious list, his next season (Yr3), and his career record after the two abysmal years:

PitcherYr1WL ERA Yr2WL ERA Yr3WL ERA Post WPost L ERA
Steve Trachsel1999818 5.56 2000815 4.80 20011113 4.46 5047 3.91
Mike Morgan19861117 4.53 19871217 4.65 198816 5.43 108124 4.02
Neal Heaton19841215 5.21 1985917 4.90 1986715 4.08 4855 4.08
Diego Segui1964817 4.56 1965515 4.64 196637 5.00 6268 3.55
Russ Kemmerer1958615 4.61 1959817 4.50 196065 3.59 1612 4.12
Bobo Newsom19411220 4.60 19421319 4.73 19431313 4.22 6581 3.38
Vern Kennedy1939920 5.80 19401217 5.59 1941311 5.17 2551 4.06
Hugh Mulcahy19381020 4.61 1939916 4.99 19401322 3.60 1629 3.77
Hugh Mulcahy1937818 5.13 19381020 4.61 1939916 4.99 2545 4.22
Jack Knott1936917 7.29 1937818 4.89 1938612 4.19 4349 4.50
Chief Hogsett19361316 5.58 1937619 6.29 193856 6.03 56 5.64
Dolly Gray1930415 6.28 19311124 5.09 1932712 4.53 1416 4.38
Jack Russell1930920 5.45 19311018 5.16 1932614 5.25 4557 4.46
Ray Benge19291115 6.29 19301115 5.70 19311418 3.17 6982 4.04
Ray Benge1928818 4.55 19291115 6.29 19301115 5.70 8097 4.30
Joe Oeschger1922621 5.06 1923515 5.68 192447 4.01 59 4.59
Gus Weyhing18981526 4.51 18991721 4.54 190066 4.47 67 4.70
Red Donahue1896724 5.80 18971035 6.13 18981617 3.55 148115 2.97
Bill Hart18961229 5.12 1897927 6.26 189859 4.82 1220 4.23
Bill Hart18951417 4.75 18961229 5.12 1897927 6.26 2147 5.27
Bill Hutchison18941416 6.06 18951321 4.73 1896 14 6.08
Tom Parrott18941719 5.60 18951118 5.47 189611 6.21 11 6.21
Red Ehret18941921 5.14 1895619 6.02 18961814 3.42 2931 4.25
Al Maul18931221 5.30 18941115 5.94 1895105 2.45 3921 3.21
Pink Hawley1893517 4.60 18941927 4.90 18953122 3.18 137121 3.79
Bill Hutchison18931624 4.75 18941416 6.06 18951321 4.73 1425 4.89
Willie McGill18931718 4.61 1894719 5.84 1895108 5.55 1512 5.46
Bert Cunningham18891619 4.87 18901224 5.63 18911114 4.01 9293 4.05
George Keefe1889818 5.13 1890616 6.52 189103 2.68 03 2.68
Stump Wiedman18861236 4.50 18871716 5.00 188811 3.50 11 3.50
Pete Conway18851017 4.67 18861120 4.95 188789 2.90 4024 2.53
John Coleman18831248 4.87 1884517 4.72 188522 3.43 67 3.84
Avg 11 20 5.17 10 19 5.32 8 11 4.34 3943 4.21

So on average the have gone 8-11 with a 4.34 ERA in their next year and 39-43, 4.21 for the rest of their careers. If the Phils get anything near that I will be overjoyed. Steve Traschel did turn his career around after having two seasons as bad as Fraklin's 2004 & 2005, however.

I guess it doesn't matter since this team is as close to a lock for third in the NL East as you can get. They may as well give Buster Bluth and Franklin, that "one cool [bleep]", a spot in the rotation.

Comments
2006-01-06 07:30:27
1.   FrankMc01
Good points- I've linked to it if you don't mind. I love these puposeful strides to 78 wins or so.

http://frankmcgrath.blogspot.com/2006/01/march-to-77.html

2006-01-06 07:41:23
2.   Mike Carminati
Thanks, Frank. And Mobity Mosley thanks you.

I have no idea if will be 77 or 85 wins, but they will finish behind the Mets and Braves and ahead of the Nats and Marlins. Given how bad the Marlins will be (think Cleveland Spiders bad), the Phils could pick up a number of cheap wins to get above .500. No matter, this is a team with a great deal of fungible talent.

Good points on why Franklin is just the type of pitcher you do not want at Citizens Bank Park: lots of walks and dingers.

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