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Man Bites Dog—They Finally Get a Major Award Right
2005-11-15 08:40
by Mike Carminati

The baseball writers screwed up yesterday and somehow gave the AL MVP award to Alex Rodriguez, the league's most valuable player. Odd.

A-Rod now at least owns two of the four awards that he should have won in his career. Eh? It's progress.

I just wanted to run the numbers for the whole list because there were some players who received votes (Podsednik, Wickman) who wouldn't make the top five for the team's MVP vote and some (Peralta, Crawford) who were overlooked even though they are the types of players that usually garner a good bit of voter attention (i.e., a power-hitting shortstop and a good leadoff hitter). Also, prominent DH's (Hafner and Ortiz) complicated the voting to some extent. How do you weigh their batting against their non-fielding?

Since I was criticized for ranking, not weighting the statistics included, I will include both ranked and weighted stats (even though the comparison between averaged rankings and averaged averages is fundamentally unsound—averaged averages are an issue because they might include different denominators).

The stats I will use are Baseball Prospectus's VORP, Bill James' Batting and Total Win Shares, and Baseball Reference's adjusted OPS+. I know that using the batting stats puts the pitchers involved at a severe disadvantage, but frankly, pitchers have no business being considered in MVP voting, at least pitchers this side of Roger Clemens. I also threw in a few of the better players left off the writers' ballots.

So here goes…The data are broken down in order to fit the display. First, the actual vote totals (rankings are by the final ranking) and VORP:

Player, ClubMVP PointsRkBallotsVORPRk Wt
Alex Rodriguez, NYY33112899.71 1.00
David Ortiz, BOS30722885.82 0.86
Manny Ramirez, BOS15642768.69 0.69
Travis Hafner, CLE15152777.34 0.78
Mark Teixeira, TEX10672673.15 0.73
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA19632872.46 0.73
Brian Roberts, BAL518369.58 0.70
Michael Young, TEX2011760.53 0.61
Gary Sheffield, NYY8481956.514 0.57
Jason Giambi, NYY518258.412 0.59
Richie Sexson, SEA715356.316 0.56
Miguel Tejada, BAL715570.07 0.70
Paul Konerko, CWS12862656.415 0.57
Hideki Matsui, NYY814353.017 0.53
Derek Jeter, NYY2310666.310 0.66
Jhonny Peralta, CLE0058.213 0.58
Grady Sizemore, CLE323253.017 0.53
Johnny Damon, BOS1213549.221 0.49
Victor Martinez, CLE518160.311 0.60
Carl Crawford, TB 0047.223 0.47
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA 0045.025 0.45
Julio Lugo, TB0049.920 0.50
Bartolo Colon, LAA323251.119 0.51
Jason Varitek, BOS421145.624 0.46
Mark Ellis, OAK 0041.927 0.42
Mike Sweeney, KC0042.326 0.42
Melvin Mora, BAL 0041.129 0.41
Chone Figgins, LAA617539.134 0.39
Jorge Cantu, TB127139.331 0.39
Eric Chavez, OAK421335.537 0.36
Joe Mauer, MIN 0040.930 0.41
Jose Contreras, CWS127141.528 0.42
Alfonso Soriano, TEX 0047.822 0.48
Mariano Rivera, NYY5991532.339 0.32
Scott Podsednik, CWS1512413.641 0.14
Huston Street, OAK323133.338 0.33
Bob Wickman, CLE226122.840 0.23

Now, here are the Win Shares and OPS+ data:

Player, ClubBatting WSRk Wt Total WSRk Wt OPS+Rk Wt
Alex Rodriguez, NYY33.31 1.00 371 1.00 1672 0.98
David Ortiz, BOS31.42 0.94 315 0.84 1613 0.95
Manny Ramirez, BOS30.93 0.93 342 0.92 1564 0.92
Travis Hafner, CLE26.86 0.80 277 0.73 1701 1.00
Mark Teixeira, TEX29.15 0.87 324 0.86 1467 0.86
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA24.58 0.74 277 0.73 1564 0.92
Brian Roberts, BAL23.510 0.71 286 0.76 1458 0.85
Michael Young, TEX23.011 0.69 277 0.73 13312 0.78
Gary Sheffield, NYY30.54 0.92 333 0.89 13214 0.78
Jason Giambi, NYY24.58 0.74 2513 0.68 1564 0.92
Richie Sexson, SEA25.47 0.76 277 0.73 1409 0.82
Miguel Tejada, BAL20.015 0.60 2611 0.70 13312 0.78
Paul Konerko, CWS21.513 0.65 2418 0.65 13611 0.80
Hideki Matsui, NYY22.612 0.68 2513 0.68 12517 0.74
Derek Jeter, NYY19.617 0.59 2611 0.70 12122 0.71
Jhonny Peralta, CLE17.025 0.51 2513 0.68 13910 0.82
Grady Sizemore, CLE18.221 0.55 2513 0.68 12517 0.74
Johnny Damon, BOS19.916 0.60 2513 0.68 11323 0.66
Victor Martinez, CLE16.626 0.50 2225 0.59 13214 0.78
Carl Crawford, TB 21.014 0.63 2323 0.62 11125 0.65
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA 19.617 0.59 2418 0.65 10927 0.64
Julio Lugo, TB18.620 0.56 2418 0.65 10530 0.62
Bartolo Colon, LAA0.0 - 1933 0.51 0 -
Jason Varitek, BOS14.632 0.44 1933 0.51 12517 0.74
Mark Ellis, OAK 14.236 0.43 2127 0.57 12517 0.74
Mike Sweeney, KC17.123 0.51 1746 0.46 12716 0.75
Melvin Mora, BAL 15.730 0.47 1933 0.51 12221 0.72
Chone Figgins, LAA16.228 0.49 2225 0.59 10331 0.61
Jorge Cantu, TB17.123 0.51 1840 0.49 11224 0.66
Eric Chavez, OAK16.029 0.48 2127 0.57 10629 0.62
Joe Mauer, MIN 13.742 0.41 2323 0.62 10828 0.64
Jose Contreras, CWS0.0 - 1840 0.49 0 -
Alfonso Soriano, TEX 14.038 0.42 1655 0.43 11026 0.65
Mariano Rivera, NYY0.0 - 1746 0.46 0 -
Scott Podsednik, CWS8.283 0.25 12103 0.32 8632 0.51
Huston Street, OAK0.0 - 1392 0.35 0 -
Bob Wickman, CLE0.0 - 8169 0.22 0 -

Here are the final standings by average rank then weighted average:

Player, Club Avg Rk Avg Wt
Alex Rodriguez, NYY 1.3 1.00
David Ortiz, BOS 3.0 0.90
Manny Ramirez, BOS 4.5 0.86
Travis Hafner, CLE 4.5 0.83
Mark Teixeira, TEX 5.3 0.83
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA 6.3 0.78
Brian Roberts, BAL 8.0 0.75
Michael Young, TEX 8.3 0.70
Gary Sheffield, NYY 8.8 0.79
Jason Giambi, NYY 9.3 0.73
Richie Sexson, SEA 9.8 0.72
Miguel Tejada, BAL 11.3 0.70
Paul Konerko, CWS 14.3 0.66
Hideki Matsui, NYY 14.8 0.66
Derek Jeter, NYY 15.0 0.67
Jhonny Peralta, CLE 15.3 0.65
Grady Sizemore, CLE 17.0 0.62
Johnny Damon, BOS 18.3 0.61
Victor Martinez, CLE 19.0 0.62
Carl Crawford, TB 21.3 0.59
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA 21.8 0.58
Julio Lugo, TB 22.0 0.58
Bartolo Colon, LAA 26.0 0.26
Jason Varitek, BOS 26.5 0.54
Mark Ellis, OAK 26.8 0.54
Mike Sweeney, KC 27.8 0.54
Melvin Mora, BAL 28.3 0.53
Chone Figgins, LAA 29.5 0.52
Jorge Cantu, TB 29.5 0.51
Eric Chavez, OAK 30.5 0.51
Joe Mauer, MIN 30.8 0.52
Jose Contreras, CWS 34.0 0.23
Alfonso Soriano, TEX 35.3 0.49
Mariano Rivera, NYY 42.5 0.20
Scott Podsednik, CWS 64.8 0.30
Huston Street, OAK 65.0 0.17
Bob Wickman, CLE 104.5 0.11

As for which stats correlate best to the final vote, VORP was best (0.712 coefficient for value and weighted value, and 0.556 for rank). Total Win Share edged out Batting Win Shares, and OPS+ came in last).

Podsednik benefited from the good press early in the season, even though no real case could be made for him based on his stats. He was the only player on the list with a below average adjusted OPS (a woeful 86). Meanwhile, Perralta, for whom one could make a decent case for being the best player on a playoff contender, suffered from the "who's that?" syndrome. Why should writers actually get to know the players before they vote?

However, the worst player by far on the list was Bob Wickman, who received one ninth-place vote (2 points), because he was basically the Indians closer and had a decent year (2.47 ERA, 45 saves). He earned 8 Win Shares in total for his efforts, which made me wonder what was the lowest total for a vote-getter in the MVP voting.

So I looked it up, and Wickman doesn't even approach the worst vote-getter. That honor would fall to Earl Torgeson, a good but not great first baseman who played just 25 games for the fourth-place Braves in 1949 and earned a measly three Win Shares. Perhaps the worst to garner a good chunk of votes was Bobby Reeves, a Senators shortstop with a 60 OPS+ in 1927, who finished twelfth in the AL voting, right behind fellow middle infielders Tony Lazzeri (who had one first-place vote but finished 11th) and Joe Sewell.
NameYrLgWSMVP Pts% Max
Earl Torgeson1949NL320.60%
Bobby Malkmus1961NL410.45%
Elston Howard1967AL472.50%
Joe Cronin1943AL430.89%
Johnny Kling1911NL411.56%
Ken Wood1950AL420.60%
Marty McManus1932AL422.50%
Doc Gautreau1925NL522.50%
Elden Auker1941AL510.30%
Frankie Crosetti1944AL520.60%
Granny Hamner1957NL530.89%
Hughie Critz1929NL556.25%
Monte Irvin1952NL551.49%
Phil Todt1927AL511.56%
Al Lopez1945NL620.60%
Bobby Reeves1927AL6710.94%
George Gibson1911NL646.25%
George Stovall1913AL657.81%
Jimmie Wilson1932NL656.25%
Jose Valdivielso1955AL610.30%
Mark Christman1947AL641.19%
Mookie Wilson1989AL610.26%
Rabbit Maranville1933NL61113.75%
Rick Ferrell1942AL682.38%
Rollie Hemsley1944AL641.19%
Sam Agnew1914AL623.13%
Ski Melillo1926AL669.38%

Comments
2005-11-15 16:28:36
1.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
Cool analysis! I approve of the method. ;)
2005-11-15 23:10:25
2.   Cliff Corcoran
Your final chart seems to imply that the voters have gotten smarter over the years. Scary thought.

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