Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The baseball writers screwed up yesterday and somehow gave the AL MVP award to Alex Rodriguez, the league's most valuable player. Odd.
A-Rod now at least owns two of the four awards that he should have won in his career. Eh? It's progress.
I just wanted to run the numbers for the whole list because there were some players who received votes (Podsednik, Wickman) who wouldn't make the top five for the team's MVP vote and some (Peralta, Crawford) who were overlooked even though they are the types of players that usually garner a good bit of voter attention (i.e., a power-hitting shortstop and a good leadoff hitter). Also, prominent DH's (Hafner and Ortiz) complicated the voting to some extent. How do you weigh their batting against their non-fielding?
Since I was criticized for ranking, not weighting the statistics included, I will include both ranked and weighted stats (even though the comparison between averaged rankings and averaged averages is fundamentally unsoundaveraged averages are an issue because they might include different denominators).
The stats I will use are Baseball Prospectus's VORP, Bill James' Batting and Total Win Shares, and Baseball Reference's adjusted OPS+. I know that using the batting stats puts the pitchers involved at a severe disadvantage, but frankly, pitchers have no business being considered in MVP voting, at least pitchers this side of Roger Clemens. I also threw in a few of the better players left off the writers' ballots.
So here goes The data are broken down in order to fit the display. First, the actual vote totals (rankings are by the final ranking) and VORP:
Player, Club | MVP Points | Rk | Ballots | VORP | Rk | Wt |
Alex Rodriguez, NYY | 331 | 1 | 28 | 99.7 | 1 | 1.00 |
David Ortiz, BOS | 307 | 2 | 28 | 85.8 | 2 | 0.86 |
Manny Ramirez, BOS | 156 | 4 | 27 | 68.6 | 9 | 0.69 |
Travis Hafner, CLE | 151 | 5 | 27 | 77.3 | 4 | 0.78 |
Mark Teixeira, TEX | 106 | 7 | 26 | 73.1 | 5 | 0.73 |
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA | 196 | 3 | 28 | 72.4 | 6 | 0.73 |
Brian Roberts, BAL | 5 | 18 | 3 | 69.5 | 8 | 0.70 |
Michael Young, TEX | 20 | 11 | 7 | 60.5 | 3 | 0.61 |
Gary Sheffield, NYY | 84 | 8 | 19 | 56.5 | 14 | 0.57 |
Jason Giambi, NYY | 5 | 18 | 2 | 58.4 | 12 | 0.59 |
Richie Sexson, SEA | 7 | 15 | 3 | 56.3 | 16 | 0.56 |
Miguel Tejada, BAL | 7 | 15 | 5 | 70.0 | 7 | 0.70 |
Paul Konerko, CWS | 128 | 6 | 26 | 56.4 | 15 | 0.57 |
Hideki Matsui, NYY | 8 | 14 | 3 | 53.0 | 17 | 0.53 |
Derek Jeter, NYY | 23 | 10 | 6 | 66.3 | 10 | 0.66 |
Jhonny Peralta, CLE | 0 | 0 | 58.2 | 13 | 0.58 | |
Grady Sizemore, CLE | 3 | 23 | 2 | 53.0 | 17 | 0.53 |
Johnny Damon, BOS | 12 | 13 | 5 | 49.2 | 21 | 0.49 |
Victor Martinez, CLE | 5 | 18 | 1 | 60.3 | 11 | 0.60 |
Carl Crawford, TB | 0 | 0 | 47.2 | 23 | 0.47 | |
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA | 0 | 0 | 45.0 | 25 | 0.45 | |
Julio Lugo, TB | 0 | 0 | 49.9 | 20 | 0.50 | |
Bartolo Colon, LAA | 3 | 23 | 2 | 51.1 | 19 | 0.51 |
Jason Varitek, BOS | 4 | 21 | 1 | 45.6 | 24 | 0.46 |
Mark Ellis, OAK | 0 | 0 | 41.9 | 27 | 0.42 | |
Mike Sweeney, KC | 0 | 0 | 42.3 | 26 | 0.42 | |
Melvin Mora, BAL | 0 | 0 | 41.1 | 29 | 0.41 | |
Chone Figgins, LAA | 6 | 17 | 5 | 39.1 | 34 | 0.39 |
Jorge Cantu, TB | 1 | 27 | 1 | 39.3 | 31 | 0.39 |
Eric Chavez, OAK | 4 | 21 | 3 | 35.5 | 37 | 0.36 |
Joe Mauer, MIN | 0 | 0 | 40.9 | 30 | 0.41 | |
Jose Contreras, CWS | 1 | 27 | 1 | 41.5 | 28 | 0.42 |
Alfonso Soriano, TEX | 0 | 0 | 47.8 | 22 | 0.48 | |
Mariano Rivera, NYY | 59 | 9 | 15 | 32.3 | 39 | 0.32 |
Scott Podsednik, CWS | 15 | 12 | 4 | 13.6 | 41 | 0.14 |
Huston Street, OAK | 3 | 23 | 1 | 33.3 | 38 | 0.33 |
Bob Wickman, CLE | 2 | 26 | 1 | 22.8 | 40 | 0.23 |
Now, here are the Win Shares and OPS+ data:
Player, Club | Batting WS | Rk | Wt | Total WS | Rk | Wt | OPS+ | Rk | Wt |
Alex Rodriguez, NYY | 33.3 | 1 | 1.00 | 37 | 1 | 1.00 | 167 | 2 | 0.98 |
David Ortiz, BOS | 31.4 | 2 | 0.94 | 31 | 5 | 0.84 | 161 | 3 | 0.95 |
Manny Ramirez, BOS | 30.9 | 3 | 0.93 | 34 | 2 | 0.92 | 156 | 4 | 0.92 |
Travis Hafner, CLE | 26.8 | 6 | 0.80 | 27 | 7 | 0.73 | 170 | 1 | 1.00 |
Mark Teixeira, TEX | 29.1 | 5 | 0.87 | 32 | 4 | 0.86 | 146 | 7 | 0.86 |
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA | 24.5 | 8 | 0.74 | 27 | 7 | 0.73 | 156 | 4 | 0.92 |
Brian Roberts, BAL | 23.5 | 10 | 0.71 | 28 | 6 | 0.76 | 145 | 8 | 0.85 |
Michael Young, TEX | 23.0 | 11 | 0.69 | 27 | 7 | 0.73 | 133 | 12 | 0.78 |
Gary Sheffield, NYY | 30.5 | 4 | 0.92 | 33 | 3 | 0.89 | 132 | 14 | 0.78 |
Jason Giambi, NYY | 24.5 | 8 | 0.74 | 25 | 13 | 0.68 | 156 | 4 | 0.92 |
Richie Sexson, SEA | 25.4 | 7 | 0.76 | 27 | 7 | 0.73 | 140 | 9 | 0.82 |
Miguel Tejada, BAL | 20.0 | 15 | 0.60 | 26 | 11 | 0.70 | 133 | 12 | 0.78 |
Paul Konerko, CWS | 21.5 | 13 | 0.65 | 24 | 18 | 0.65 | 136 | 11 | 0.80 |
Hideki Matsui, NYY | 22.6 | 12 | 0.68 | 25 | 13 | 0.68 | 125 | 17 | 0.74 |
Derek Jeter, NYY | 19.6 | 17 | 0.59 | 26 | 11 | 0.70 | 121 | 22 | 0.71 |
Jhonny Peralta, CLE | 17.0 | 25 | 0.51 | 25 | 13 | 0.68 | 139 | 10 | 0.82 |
Grady Sizemore, CLE | 18.2 | 21 | 0.55 | 25 | 13 | 0.68 | 125 | 17 | 0.74 |
Johnny Damon, BOS | 19.9 | 16 | 0.60 | 25 | 13 | 0.68 | 113 | 23 | 0.66 |
Victor Martinez, CLE | 16.6 | 26 | 0.50 | 22 | 25 | 0.59 | 132 | 14 | 0.78 |
Carl Crawford, TB | 21.0 | 14 | 0.63 | 23 | 23 | 0.62 | 111 | 25 | 0.65 |
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA | 19.6 | 17 | 0.59 | 24 | 18 | 0.65 | 109 | 27 | 0.64 |
Julio Lugo, TB | 18.6 | 20 | 0.56 | 24 | 18 | 0.65 | 105 | 30 | 0.62 |
Bartolo Colon, LAA | 0.0 | - | 19 | 33 | 0.51 | 0 | - | ||
Jason Varitek, BOS | 14.6 | 32 | 0.44 | 19 | 33 | 0.51 | 125 | 17 | 0.74 |
Mark Ellis, OAK | 14.2 | 36 | 0.43 | 21 | 27 | 0.57 | 125 | 17 | 0.74 |
Mike Sweeney, KC | 17.1 | 23 | 0.51 | 17 | 46 | 0.46 | 127 | 16 | 0.75 |
Melvin Mora, BAL | 15.7 | 30 | 0.47 | 19 | 33 | 0.51 | 122 | 21 | 0.72 |
Chone Figgins, LAA | 16.2 | 28 | 0.49 | 22 | 25 | 0.59 | 103 | 31 | 0.61 |
Jorge Cantu, TB | 17.1 | 23 | 0.51 | 18 | 40 | 0.49 | 112 | 24 | 0.66 |
Eric Chavez, OAK | 16.0 | 29 | 0.48 | 21 | 27 | 0.57 | 106 | 29 | 0.62 |
Joe Mauer, MIN | 13.7 | 42 | 0.41 | 23 | 23 | 0.62 | 108 | 28 | 0.64 |
Jose Contreras, CWS | 0.0 | - | 18 | 40 | 0.49 | 0 | - | ||
Alfonso Soriano, TEX | 14.0 | 38 | 0.42 | 16 | 55 | 0.43 | 110 | 26 | 0.65 |
Mariano Rivera, NYY | 0.0 | - | 17 | 46 | 0.46 | 0 | - | ||
Scott Podsednik, CWS | 8.2 | 83 | 0.25 | 12 | 103 | 0.32 | 86 | 32 | 0.51 |
Huston Street, OAK | 0.0 | - | 13 | 92 | 0.35 | 0 | - | ||
Bob Wickman, CLE | 0.0 | - | 8 | 169 | 0.22 | 0 | - |
Here are the final standings by average rank then weighted average:
Player, Club | Avg Rk | Avg Wt |
Alex Rodriguez, NYY | 1.3 | 1.00 |
David Ortiz, BOS | 3.0 | 0.90 |
Manny Ramirez, BOS | 4.5 | 0.86 |
Travis Hafner, CLE | 4.5 | 0.83 |
Mark Teixeira, TEX | 5.3 | 0.83 |
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA | 6.3 | 0.78 |
Brian Roberts, BAL | 8.0 | 0.75 |
Michael Young, TEX | 8.3 | 0.70 |
Gary Sheffield, NYY | 8.8 | 0.79 |
Jason Giambi, NYY | 9.3 | 0.73 |
Richie Sexson, SEA | 9.8 | 0.72 |
Miguel Tejada, BAL | 11.3 | 0.70 |
Paul Konerko, CWS | 14.3 | 0.66 |
Hideki Matsui, NYY | 14.8 | 0.66 |
Derek Jeter, NYY | 15.0 | 0.67 |
Jhonny Peralta, CLE | 15.3 | 0.65 |
Grady Sizemore, CLE | 17.0 | 0.62 |
Johnny Damon, BOS | 18.3 | 0.61 |
Victor Martinez, CLE | 19.0 | 0.62 |
Carl Crawford, TB | 21.3 | 0.59 |
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA | 21.8 | 0.58 |
Julio Lugo, TB | 22.0 | 0.58 |
Bartolo Colon, LAA | 26.0 | 0.26 |
Jason Varitek, BOS | 26.5 | 0.54 |
Mark Ellis, OAK | 26.8 | 0.54 |
Mike Sweeney, KC | 27.8 | 0.54 |
Melvin Mora, BAL | 28.3 | 0.53 |
Chone Figgins, LAA | 29.5 | 0.52 |
Jorge Cantu, TB | 29.5 | 0.51 |
Eric Chavez, OAK | 30.5 | 0.51 |
Joe Mauer, MIN | 30.8 | 0.52 |
Jose Contreras, CWS | 34.0 | 0.23 |
Alfonso Soriano, TEX | 35.3 | 0.49 |
Mariano Rivera, NYY | 42.5 | 0.20 |
Scott Podsednik, CWS | 64.8 | 0.30 |
Huston Street, OAK | 65.0 | 0.17 |
Bob Wickman, CLE | 104.5 | 0.11 |
As for which stats correlate best to the final vote, VORP was best (0.712 coefficient for value and weighted value, and 0.556 for rank). Total Win Share edged out Batting Win Shares, and OPS+ came in last).
Podsednik benefited from the good press early in the season, even though no real case could be made for him based on his stats. He was the only player on the list with a below average adjusted OPS (a woeful 86). Meanwhile, Perralta, for whom one could make a decent case for being the best player on a playoff contender, suffered from the "who's that?" syndrome. Why should writers actually get to know the players before they vote?
However, the worst player by far on the list was Bob Wickman, who received one ninth-place vote (2 points), because he was basically the Indians closer and had a decent year (2.47 ERA, 45 saves). He earned 8 Win Shares in total for his efforts, which made me wonder what was the lowest total for a vote-getter in the MVP voting.
So I looked it up, and Wickman doesn't even approach the worst vote-getter. That honor would fall to Earl Torgeson, a good but not great first baseman who played just 25 games for the fourth-place Braves in 1949 and earned a measly three Win Shares. Perhaps the worst to garner a good chunk of votes was Bobby Reeves, a Senators shortstop with a 60 OPS+ in 1927, who finished twelfth in the AL voting, right behind fellow middle infielders Tony Lazzeri (who had one first-place vote but finished 11th) and Joe Sewell.
Name | Yr | Lg | WS | MVP Pts | % Max |
Earl Torgeson | 1949 | NL | 3 | 2 | 0.60% |
Bobby Malkmus | 1961 | NL | 4 | 1 | 0.45% |
Elston Howard | 1967 | AL | 4 | 7 | 2.50% |
Joe Cronin | 1943 | AL | 4 | 3 | 0.89% |
Johnny Kling | 1911 | NL | 4 | 1 | 1.56% |
Ken Wood | 1950 | AL | 4 | 2 | 0.60% |
Marty McManus | 1932 | AL | 4 | 2 | 2.50% |
Doc Gautreau | 1925 | NL | 5 | 2 | 2.50% |
Elden Auker | 1941 | AL | 5 | 1 | 0.30% |
Frankie Crosetti | 1944 | AL | 5 | 2 | 0.60% |
Granny Hamner | 1957 | NL | 5 | 3 | 0.89% |
Hughie Critz | 1929 | NL | 5 | 5 | 6.25% |
Monte Irvin | 1952 | NL | 5 | 5 | 1.49% |
Phil Todt | 1927 | AL | 5 | 1 | 1.56% |
Al Lopez | 1945 | NL | 6 | 2 | 0.60% |
Bobby Reeves | 1927 | AL | 6 | 7 | 10.94% |
George Gibson | 1911 | NL | 6 | 4 | 6.25% |
George Stovall | 1913 | AL | 6 | 5 | 7.81% |
Jimmie Wilson | 1932 | NL | 6 | 5 | 6.25% |
Jose Valdivielso | 1955 | AL | 6 | 1 | 0.30% |
Mark Christman | 1947 | AL | 6 | 4 | 1.19% |
Mookie Wilson | 1989 | AL | 6 | 1 | 0.26% |
Rabbit Maranville | 1933 | NL | 6 | 11 | 13.75% |
Rick Ferrell | 1942 | AL | 6 | 8 | 2.38% |
Rollie Hemsley | 1944 | AL | 6 | 4 | 1.19% |
Sam Agnew | 1914 | AL | 6 | 2 | 3.13% |
Ski Melillo | 1926 | AL | 6 | 6 | 9.38% |
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