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Chasing Ruth
2005-09-21 21:39
by Mike Carminati

Barry Bonds now has four homers in the last four games, one per game. The Giants coincidentally have won five straight, and their playoff hopes are still hanging by the thinnest of threads. They trail the Padres by five games with eleven left to play. If they win all eleven, they would finish above .500 at 82-80, which would be the worst record ever by a division winner in a non-strike year if they overtake San Diego.

Bonds also trails Babe Ruth for number two on the all-time home run list by seven, which at his current pace he would match by next Wednesday in San Diego, of course. Seven home runs in eleven games would seem impossible if this weren't Barry Bonds.

All of which made me wonder how Bonds would have done had he played a full season this year. I projected out his performance so far in 2005 to the 147 games that he played last year. Given that, he would have finished this season with 74 HRs for 777 on his career. But he would also have "just" 99 walks meaning that teams so far are challenging him more than usual expecting him to not be 100%. That wouldn't last long in full season. But the man doesn't seem to have missed a beat after missing 140-odd games.

Here are his numbers since 200 with his projected 2005 totals and the subsequent career numbers:

SEASONGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
20001434801291472844910611777113.306.440.6881.128
20011534761291563227313717793133.328.515.8631.378
2002143403117149312461101984792.370.582.7991.381
200313039011113322145901485870.341.529.7491.278
2004147373129135273451012324161.362.609.8121.421
20058225710465500.318.429.9091.338
Total272491202075273756477707184923071433506141.300.443.6111.054
2005 (proj)1474049212918074110929200
Total (proj)286395022162285958177777195323941520506141

So Bonds would have broken the single-season and career home run record. Not a bad year. Too bad we missed it.

Comments
2005-09-23 10:15:21
1.   rbj
Steroids or not, to be off for eleven months and then be able to hit major league pitching is amazing.

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