Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Tonight the Yankees closed to within one-half game of the Red Sox with a walkoff homer by Bubba Crosby. The Indians, winners of six straight, amazingly closed to within 2-1/2 games by beating the White Sox, 7-5. If they sweep the Sox, they will end up just a half game out of first, something that seemed impossible for most of the season. Meanwhile Oakland leads the Twins, 5-1 in the seventh and can close to within one and a half games of the Angels.
By tomorrow morning the total gap between all first- and second-place teams in the American League could be four and one-half games. Meanwhile in the NL, all three first-place teams have comfortable leads of at least five games. In total, the NL second-place teams lag by 24.5 games.
That all made me wonder what were the closest and farthest apart a leagues has been based on the total games back for all second-place teams since divisional play started.
I ran the numbers and found that no three-division league has ever been as close as this year's AL and that the 2005 AL would rank tenth all time in total games back:
Yr | Lg | Tot GB | # Divs |
1980 | NL | 2 | 2 |
1985 | AL | 3 | 2 |
1979 | NL | 3.5 | 2 |
1982 | AL | 4 | 2 |
1993 | NL | 4 | 2 |
1982 | NL | 4 | 2 |
2001 | NL | 4 | 2 |
1987 | AL | 4 | 2 |
1978 | NL | 4 | 2 |
1973 | NL | 5 | 2 |
1974 | NL | 5.5 | 2 |
In 1980, the Phils and Astros won their divisions by one game each and then played one of the closest NL Championship Series of all time. With three divisions per league, no league will ever be as close as 1980 again. Given that any lead of less than a full game would require either a one-game playoff (in case of a tie) or that both teams play out their full schedules (in case of a half-game lead) or both, no league's second-place teams now could be closer than three total games back.
So the AL is just 1.5 games over that right now, which begs the question of what was the closest three-division league:
Yr | Lg | Tot GB | # Divs |
2000 | AL | 8 | 3 |
1994 | AL | 8.5 | 3 |
1994 | NL | 10 | 3 |
2004 | AL | 13 | 3 |
2003 | AL | 13 | 3 |
1997 | AL | 14 | 3 |
1996 | NL | 15 | 3 |
1997 | NL | 16 | 3 |
1999 | NL | 22 | 3 |
2000 | NL | 22 | 3 |
The 2000 AL divisions were won by the Yankees (2.5 over the Red Sox), the White Sox (5 over the Indians), and the A's (0.5 over the M's). The A's were never required to play their last game even with the half-game lead since even if they lost, they would win the tie breaker and the Seattle would still be the wild card.
This requires me to amend my previous statement: a three-division league could be as close as the 1980 NL if a) two divisions are won by one game and b) the first two teams in the third division are tied but that the tie breaker declares on the victor and the other the wild card. It seems an unlikely scenario, but it is possible. (The Astros took the 2001 NL Central crown in this fashion from the Cards despite identical records.)
Anyway, the farthest behind that all three divisions within a league have been are:
Yr | Lg | Tot GB | # Divs |
1998 | NL | 40 | 3 |
1995 | AL | 38 | 3 |
2002 | NL | 34.5 | 3 |
1998 | AL | 34 | 3 |
1999 | AL | 33.5 | 3 |
2001 | AL | 33.5 | 3 |
1986 | NL | 31.5 | 2 |
1995 | NL | 31 | 3 |
2002 | AL | 28 | 3 |
1969 | AL | 28 | 2 |
1971 | AL | 28 | 2 |
2003 | NL | 26.5 | 3 |
1975 | NL | 26.5 | 2 |
1983 | AL | 26 | 2 |
2004 | NL | 25 | 3 |
1970 | AL | 24 | 2 |
In 1998, the Braves won the NL East by 18 games, the Astros won the Central by 12.5, and the Padres won the West by 9.5. By the dual thrill of the McGwire-Sosa home run race, which Sosa lost if you forgot, and the Cubs wild card race and subsequent playoff sweep, were sufficient grounds for Sosa to win an NL MVP. You've got to love those baseball writersthey get it right every time.
Right now, the Astros, who trail the Cards by 13.5 while leading the wild card pack, would edge the 1998 Cubs for most game back while still qualifying for the wild card. So what's the worst, which wild card trailed its division winner by the most games?:
Yr | Lg | Tot GB | Team |
1998 | AL | 22 | Boston Red Sox |
2001 | AL | 14 | Oakland Athletics |
2004 | NL | 13 | Houston Astros |
1998 | NL | 12.5 | Chicago Cubs |
2003 | NL | 10 | Florida Marlins |
1997 | NL | 9 | Florida Marlins |
Yeah, the circumstances in the AL East in 1998 (114 wins for the Yankees and 92 for the Sox) will be hard to duplicate.
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