Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Pitching BP
2005-09-06 09:35
by Mike Carminati

Will Carroll and I have a piece over at Baseball Prospectus (login required) today on whether swinging and missing, free swingers being free swingers, actually matters. Guess what? It doesn't. Enjoy.

Comments
2005-09-06 09:59:04
1.   Eric Enders
I would love to read this, but alas, not for 40 bucks.
2005-09-06 10:16:58
2.   TFD
Mike: Congrats, TFD
2005-09-06 10:39:33
3.   Mike Carminati
Eric, it's easily worth it. To quote John Winger, "Chicks in New York are paying top dollar for this stuff."

TFD, thanks.

2005-09-06 13:14:36
4.   Ken Arneson
I have a little quibble with the "overall" scope of the article.

There's a difference between swinging and missing with 0 or 1 strike, and swinging and missing with 2 strikes. There's a difference between swinging and missing with nobody on base and two outs and swinging and missing with a runner on third and nobody out.

On the whole, I'm sure you're right. But I suspect that if you break down the swinging and missing by context, you'll find that the "take your cuts" conclusion is not always correct. I'm sure there are some contexts when a "put the ball in play" approach will produce more runs, and more wins, for the team as a whole, even if it hurts the individual player's OPS.

2005-09-06 19:23:27
5.   Mike Carminati
Ken,

Give me the data and I'll analyze it. If I had my druthers, I'd not only look at pitch count, I'd look at game situation (men on, outs, score, etc.). I'd rather see the glass half full than half empty.

2005-09-07 10:17:04
6.   Todd S
Well done! It's exactly this kind of analysis that makes the $40/year ($35 if you sign up for two) a bargain. I love the articles that examine conventional wisdom to see if they hold up to the light of reason.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.