Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
John Milton
A wreathed garland of deserved praise,
Of praise deserved, unto Thee I give
George Herbert
Jon Garland won his 16th game yesterday beating the M's, 3-1, and allowing just one run, five hits, and two walks in 7.1 innings. He is just 4-4 in his last eight starts, dating back to June 26, but has lowered his ERA from 3.40 to 3.29 with (with a 3.04 ERA over the period).
Barring any rests the Sox give him down what appears to be a meaningless stretch run, Garland should get ten more starts, which means he could potentially win 26 for the year. Garland appears to be the front runner for the AL Cy Young award, which might help spur the Sox to get all his starts in, especially if he can top 25 wins, however, unlikely.
No pitcher has won 25 since Bob Welch fifteen years ago. He's actually the only pitcher do win that many games in the last 25 years (Steve Stone won 25 in 1980). Given that Garland has gotten a decision in all but one of his starts this year, it is not inconceivable (to quote Vizzini in "The Princess Bride") that he would be able to get a decision in his last ten, and what they hey, why can't they all be wins?
Should he reach 26 wins, he would be just the third pitcher since 1969 to do so. Only 21 have done it in the last 75 years, most of which were played before five-man rotations became de rigueur:
Pitcher | Yr | W | L | PCT | G | ERA |
Bob Welch | 1990 | 27 | 6 | .818 | 35 | 2.95 |
Steve Carlton | 1972 | 27 | 10 | .730 | 41 | 1.97 |
Denny McLain | 1968 | 31 | 6 | .838 | 41 | 1.96 |
Juan Marichal | 1968 | 26 | 9 | .743 | 38 | 2.43 |
Sandy Koufax | 1966 | 27 | 9 | .750 | 41 | 1.73 |
Sandy Koufax | 1965 | 26 | 8 | .765 | 43 | 2.04 |
Don Newcombe | 1956 | 27 | 7 | .794 | 38 | 3.06 |
Robin Roberts | 1952 | 28 | 7 | .800 | 39 | 2.59 |
Bob Feller | 1946 | 26 | 15 | .634 | 48 | 2.18 |
Hal Newhouser | 1946 | 26 | 9 | .743 | 37 | 1.94 |
Hal Newhouser | 1944 | 29 | 9 | .763 | 47 | 2.22 |
Dizzy Trout | 1944 | 27 | 14 | .659 | 49 | 2.12 |
Bob Feller | 1940 | 27 | 11 | .711 | 43 | 2.61 |
Bucky Walters | 1939 | 27 | 11 | .711 | 39 | 2.29 |
Carl Hubbell | 1936 | 26 | 6 | .813 | 42 | 2.31 |
Dizzy Dean | 1935 | 28 | 12 | .700 | 50 | 3.04 |
Lefty Gomez | 1934 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 38 | 2.33 |
Dizzy Dean | 1934 | 30 | 7 | .811 | 50 | 2.66 |
Alvin Crowder | 1932 | 26 | 13 | .667 | 50 | 3.33 |
Lefty Grove | 1931 | 31 | 4 | .886 | 41 | 2.06 |
Of course, Garland's 3.29 ERA, though much lower than his career ERA to start the season 4.68), is a bit hefty for a Cy Young candidate. Should he keep that ERA and still win 26, he would have one of the highest ERAs for anyone who won as many games since the "Modern" era began. Here are the only men since 1900 to win 26 with an ERA of 3.00 or above (by the way, it was common in the nineteenth century with its one- or two-man rotations):
Pitcher | Yr | W | L | PCT | G | ERA |
George Uhle | 1923 | 26 | 16 | .619 | 54 | 3.77 |
Charley Root | 1927 | 26 | 15 | .634 | 48 | 3.76 |
Joe McGinnity | 1901 | 26 | 20 | .565 | 48 | 3.56 |
Urban Shocker | 1921 | 27 | 12 | .692 | 47 | 3.55 |
Jack Coombs | 1911 | 28 | 12 | .700 | 47 | 3.53 |
Alvin Crowder | 1932 | 26 | 13 | .667 | 50 | 3.33 |
Joe Bush | 1922 | 26 | 7 | .788 | 39 | 3.31 |
Eddie Rommel | 1922 | 27 | 13 | .675 | 51 | 3.28 |
Carl Mays | 1920 | 26 | 11 | .703 | 45 | 3.06 |
Don Newcombe | 1956 | 27 | 7 | .794 | 38 | 3.06 |
Carl Mays | 1921 | 27 | 9 | .750 | 49 | 3.05 |
Dizzy Dean | 1935 | 28 | 12 | .700 | 50 | 3.04 |
As for Cy Young winners, here are the only award winners with ERAs of 3.00 or above:
Pitcher | Yr | W | L | PCT | G | ERA | lgID |
La Marr Hoyt | 1983 | 24 | 10 | .706 | 36 | 3.66 | AL |
Rick Sutcliffe | 1984 | 20 | 6 | .769 | 35 | 3.64 | NL |
Roger Clemens | 2001 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 33 | 3.51 | AL |
Jack McDowell | 1993 | 22 | 10 | .688 | 34 | 3.37 | AL |
Pete Vuckovich | 1982 | 18 | 6 | .750 | 30 | 3.34 | AL |
Roy Halladay | 2003 | 22 | 7 | .759 | 36 | 3.25 | AL |
Steve Stone | 1980 | 25 | 7 | .781 | 37 | 3.23 | AL |
Pat Hentgen | 1996 | 20 | 10 | .667 | 35 | 3.22 | AL |
Whitey Ford | 1961 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 39 | 3.21 | ML |
Early Wynn | 1959 | 22 | 10 | .688 | 37 | 3.17 | ML |
Jim Lonborg | 1967 | 22 | 9 | .710 | 39 | 3.16 | AL |
Bob Gibson | 1970 | 23 | 7 | .767 | 34 | 3.12 | NL |
Steve Carlton | 1982 | 23 | 11 | .676 | 38 | 3.10 | NL |
Mike Flanagan | 1979 | 23 | 9 | .719 | 39 | 3.08 | AL |
Vern Law | 1960 | 20 | 9 | .690 | 35 | 3.08 | MLB |
Don Newcombe | 1956 | 27 | 7 | .794 | 38 | 3.06 | MLB |
Jim Perry | 1970 | 24 | 12 | .667 | 40 | 3.04 | AL |
As I said earlier, Garland has had a decision in all but one of his 22 starts this year (95.45%). Should he win his final ten to give him 26 wins, he would also have a decision in 96.88% of starts, a remarkably high amount (and also a good indication of why he probably won't be able to win 26) That would be the highest ratio of decision per game pitched for a 20 game winner since Gaylord Perry's 1972 campaign. Here are all the men over 95% in the last 95 years:
Pitcher | Yr | W | L | PCT | G | ERA | Dec/G |
Ron Guidry | 1983 | 21 | 9 | .700 | 31 | 3.42 | 96.77% |
Dennis Leonard | 1978 | 21 | 17 | .553 | 40 | 3.33 | 95.00% |
Joe Coleman | 1973 | 23 | 15 | .605 | 40 | 3.53 | 95.00% |
Gaylord Perry | 1972 | 24 | 16 | .600 | 41 | 1.92 | 97.56% |
Fergie Jenkins | 1970 | 22 | 16 | .579 | 40 | 3.39 | 95.00% |
Camilo Pascual | 1963 | 21 | 9 | .700 | 31 | 2.46 | 96.77% |
Ned Garver | 1951 | 20 | 12 | .625 | 33 | 3.73 | 96.97% |
Ed Lopat | 1951 | 21 | 9 | .700 | 31 | 2.91 | 96.77% |
Red Ruffing | 1939 | 21 | 7 | .750 | 28 | 2.93 | 100.00% |
Bucky Walters | 1939 | 27 | 11 | .711 | 39 | 2.29 | 97.44% |
Red Ruffing | 1936 | 20 | 12 | .625 | 33 | 3.85 | 96.97% |
Wes Ferrell | 1935 | 25 | 14 | .641 | 41 | 3.52 | 95.12% |
George Uhle | 1926 | 27 | 11 | .711 | 39 | 2.83 | 97.44% |
Dazzy Vance | 1925 | 22 | 9 | .710 | 31 | 3.53 | 100.00% |
Dazzy Vance | 1924 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 35 | 2.16 | 97.14% |
Burleigh Grimes | 1923 | 21 | 18 | .538 | 39 | 3.58 | 100.00% |
Eppa Rixey | 1922 | 25 | 13 | .658 | 40 | 3.53 | 95.00% |
Sam Jones | 1921 | 23 | 16 | .590 | 40 | 3.22 | 97.50% |
Slim Sallee | 1919 | 21 | 7 | .750 | 29 | 2.06 | 96.55% |
Carl Mays | 1918 | 21 | 13 | .618 | 35 | 2.21 | 97.14% |
Pete Alexander | 1917 | 30 | 13 | .698 | 45 | 1.83 | 95.56% |
Walter Johnson | 1911 | 25 | 13 | .658 | 40 | 1.90 | 95.00% |
Finally, Garland entered the season with just 46 wins against 51 defeats in his five seasons in Chicago. If Garland wins at least 25 games this year, he would have one of the lowest career win totals prior to winning 25 ever:
Pitcher | Yr | W | L | PCT | G | ERA | Pre W | Pre L | Pre G |
Russ Ford | 1910 | 26 | 6 | .813 | 36 | 1.65 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Larry Cheney | 1912 | 26 | 10 | .722 | 42 | 2.85 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Bill Donovan | 1901 | 25 | 15 | .625 | 45 | 2.77 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
Bill James | 1914 | 26 | 7 | .788 | 46 | 1.90 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
George McConnell | 1915 | 25 | 10 | .714 | 44 | 2.20 | 12 | 29 | 61 |
Dick Rudolph | 1914 | 26 | 10 | .722 | 42 | 2.35 | 14 | 14 | 37 |
Togie Pittinger | 1902 | 27 | 16 | .628 | 46 | 2.52 | 15 | 25 | 52 |
Tom Seaton | 1913 | 27 | 12 | .692 | 52 | 2.60 | 16 | 12 | 44 |
Ron Guidry | 1978 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 35 | 1.74 | 16 | 8 | 48 |
Mel Parnell | 1949 | 25 | 7 | .781 | 39 | 2.77 | 17 | 11 | 50 |
Charley Root | 1927 | 26 | 15 | .634 | 48 | 3.76 | 18 | 21 | 69 |
Dave Ferriss | 1946 | 25 | 6 | .806 | 40 | 3.25 | 21 | 10 | 35 |
Wes Ferrell | 1930 | 25 | 13 | .658 | 43 | 3.31 | 21 | 12 | 46 |
Eddie Rommel | 1922 | 27 | 13 | .675 | 51 | 3.28 | 23 | 30 | 79 |
Johnny Morrison | 1923 | 25 | 13 | .658 | 42 | 3.49 | 27 | 18 | 68 |
Joe McGinnity | 1900 | 28 | 8 | .778 | 44 | 2.94 | 28 | 16 | 48 |
Jesse Barnes | 1919 | 25 | 9 | .735 | 38 | 2.40 | 28 | 37 | 101 |
Howie Camnitz | 1909 | 25 | 6 | .806 | 41 | 1.62 | 31 | 21 | 81 |
Tom Seaver | 1969 | 25 | 7 | .781 | 36 | 2.21 | 32 | 25 | 71 |
Walter Johnson | 1910 | 25 | 17 | .595 | 45 | 1.36 | 32 | 48 | 90 |
Rube Marquard | 1912 | 26 | 11 | .703 | 43 | 2.57 | 33 | 25 | 88 |
Christy Mathewson | 1903 | 30 | 13 | .698 | 45 | 2.26 | 34 | 37 | 80 |
Hal Newhouser | 1944 | 29 | 9 | .763 | 47 | 2.22 | 34 | 52 | 137 |
Jack Coombs | 1910 | 31 | 9 | .775 | 45 | 1.30 | 35 | 35 | 102 |
Dazzy Vance | 1924 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 35 | 2.16 | 36 | 31 | 84 |
Juan Marichal | 1963 | 25 | 8 | .758 | 41 | 2.41 | 37 | 23 | 77 |
Jeff Tesreau | 1914 | 26 | 10 | .722 | 42 | 2.37 | 39 | 20 | 77 |
Dizzy Dean | 1934 | 30 | 7 | .811 | 50 | 2.66 | 39 | 33 | 95 |
Jack Chesbro | 1902 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 35 | 2.17 | 42 | 32 | 87 |
Jeff Pfeffer | 1916 | 25 | 11 | .694 | 41 | 1.92 | 42 | 27 | 90 |
Mordecai Brown | 1906 | 26 | 6 | .813 | 36 | 1.04 | 42 | 35 | 82 |
Claude Hendrix | 1914 | 29 | 10 | .744 | 49 | 1.69 | 42 | 30 | 103 |
Tom Seaton | 1914 | 25 | 14 | .641 | 44 | 3.03 | 43 | 24 | 96 |
Jack Quinn | 1914 | 26 | 14 | .650 | 46 | 2.60 | 44 | 37 | 124 |
See the next post.
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