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Dusty Tautology?—The Fourth Cut Is The Deepest
2005-07-12 17:51
by Mike Carminati

My Toaster-mate Derek Smart sent me the following email the other day:

I ran across this quote from Dusty Baker in the Daily Herald:

"I'm a firm believer that your fourth year is about your toughest year as a hitter," Baker said. "Your first year or two, you're going on natural ability. They don't know you. One team thinks you're a high-ball hitter. One team thinks you're a low-ball hitter. By the fourth year, everybody knows what you can and cannot hit. Everybody's pitching him now about the same way."

That looks like a statement (fourth year being the toughest for hitters) that begs for some sort of fact-related rebuttal, and naturally, I thought of you. I don't know if the question interests you, but I thought I should toss it your way just in case (I just don't have the brain cells right now).

Well, I didn't have the brain cells either, but, like the Scarecrow, I have an honorary degree of ThD, Doctor in Thinkology. I did some thin'in' like El Kabong and a bunch of fancy ciphering like Jethro Bodine, and I ended up with a pain in the Gulliver, my droogies.

Dusty was just finding a way to either beat up on or find an excuse for the mercurial enigma that is Corey Patterson, the Cubs' sometime starting center fielder. After I started looking into Dusty's oratory, Patterson was actually sent down in the latest twist in Chicago's on-again off-again love affair with the rapidly aging 25-year-old player. It reminds me of the Phils' gaslighting of Marlon Byrd over the past three seasons.

But back to the data. The problem was that unlike Dusty, I can't refer to same fantasy world in which anything is possible. I would be reminded by Lil Joe Morgan that that way leads only to Enron. I have to define my terms, but what's a first year, let alone a fourth year? Very few players begin their careers with 400 plate appearances in their first year. What about a guy who has 250? And what about a guy who misses half a season in his "third" year, whatever that is? It's all so confusing.

I opted for the major-league definition of a rookie, 130 plate appearances. I took batters only (i.e., more plate appearances than innings pitched) and found the season in which they crossed MLB's Mason-Dixon line for rookies. It may have been their first season; it may have been their fifth. But whatever season they attained the number of appearances necessary to no longer be considered a rookie in subsequent seasons, that was their rookie year. The next season was their second year, the next their third, etc. Unscientific perhaps, but whaddya gonna do?

I then took the players' ratios and averaged them (I know) per decade (based on the decade in which their rookie year took place). I found the average ratios for each in the second year, third year, and so.

Below is the rather lengthy table that was the result of the slooshy through the malenky. Come, viddy:

YrDecade TPA BA%ChangeOBP%ChangeSLUG%ChangeOPS%Change
R1870s 194.75 .260.274.324.598
R1880s 268.36 .231.268.304.572
R1890s 315.59 .261.327.348.676
R1900s 334.44 .240.293.305.598
R1910s 299.60 .239.305.311.616
R1920s 322.15 .275.332.375.707
R1930s 327.40 .268.326.377.703
R1940s 325.62 .253.317.344.661
R1950s 305.15 .249.316.365.681
R1960s 308.32 .239.304.351.654
R1970s 288.13 .245.308.344.652
R1980s 274.19 .246.304.358.663
R1990s 268.30 .252.315.378.692
R2000s 272.53 .252.313.388.701
21870s 207.61 .2600.04%.274-0.02%.321-1.03%.594-0.57%
21880s 285.58 .230-0.39%.2742.29%.3071.00%.5811.60%
21890s 318.83 .253-3.12%.321-1.83%.333-4.37%.654-3.14%
21900s 369.07 .235-2.02%.2930.07%.300-1.70%.593-0.83%
21910s 299.72 .2400.16%.3091.28%.3120.34%.6210.81%
21920s 364.94 .2791.55%.3371.69%.3862.98%.7242.38%
21930s 354.27 .253-5.44%.318-2.39%.360-4.60%.678-3.58%
21940s 327.06 .247-2.32%.314-0.88%.341-0.85%.656-0.87%
21950s 299.77 .236-5.22%.302-4.45%.351-3.84%.653-4.12%
21960s 316.65 .234-1.79%.299-1.63%.342-2.41%.641-2.05%
21970s 313.12 .242-1.50%.305-0.98%.339-1.53%.644-1.27%
21980s 312.16 .241-1.93%.303-0.58%.352-1.79%.655-1.23%
21990s 293.75 .245-2.41%.310-1.39%.370-1.89%.681-1.66%
22000s 325.26 .245-3.03%.309-1.29%.382-1.54%.691-1.43%
31870s 228.39 .2641.60%.2792.06%.3292.44%.6082.27%
31880s 290.06 .2373.04%.2885.37%.3173.24%.6054.24%
31890s 312.30 .2592.12%.319-0.74%.3391.62%.6570.46%
31900s 324.38 .231-1.87%.285-2.72%.296-1.23%.581-1.96%
31910s 287.85 .2400.12%.302-2.07%.3181.77%.620-0.14%
31920s 346.71 .275-1.58%.333-1.37%.380-1.72%.713-1.56%
31930s 346.29 .249-1.80%.313-1.47%.350-2.82%.663-2.19%
31940s 316.61 .245-0.92%.309-1.59%.341-0.16%.650-0.85%
31950s 291.25 .2360.00%.3092.33%.3540.92%.6631.57%
31960s 316.29 .230-1.74%.295-1.08%.335-2.15%.630-1.65%
31970s 322.24 .2430.55%.3070.82%.3462.07%.6531.47%
31980s 320.12 .238-1.24%.299-1.23%.350-0.69%.648-0.94%
31990s 311.00 .2481.06%.3141.26%.3823.24%.6972.34%
32000s 322.83 .242-1.00%.305-1.50%.377-1.39%.682-1.44%
41870s 241.55 .255-3.43%.271-2.81%.316-3.82%.587-3.36%
41880s 300.97 .2380.28%.2942.10%.3170.07%.6121.03%
41890s 326.82 .2652.42%.3241.56%.3523.86%.6752.75%
41900s 313.51 .2310.28%.2901.54%.2970.23%.5860.87%
41910s 269.57 .232-3.21%.293-3.05%.304-4.40%.597-3.74%
41920s 306.75 .262-4.64%.320-3.98%.363-4.36%.683-4.18%
41930s 300.81 .249-0.11%.309-1.29%.343-2.00%.652-1.67%
41940s 282.31 .235-3.95%.303-1.90%.329-3.35%.633-2.66%
41950s 293.07 .235-0.34%.302-2.14%.349-1.61%.651-1.86%
41960s 301.84 .223-3.07%.288-2.36%.321-4.18%.609-3.33%
41970s 316.81 .239-1.69%.301-2.10%.341-1.40%.642-1.73%
41980s 315.29 .236-1.08%.296-0.80%.347-0.77%.643-0.78%
41990s 312.88 .246-0.92%.312-0.70%.3850.75%.6970.10%
42000s 342.19 .2451.27%.3081.09%.3800.79%.6880.92%
51870s 250.88 .2570.84%.2741.02%.3232.35%.5981.74%
51880s 316.28 .234-1.60%.2950.05%.313-1.25%.608-0.62%
51890s 335.50 .259-2.34%.316-2.46%.345-1.88%.661-2.16%
51900s 328.52 .2361.95%.2941.39%.3073.56%.6012.49%
51910s 277.86 .2330.37%.289-1.29%.3060.75%.595-0.25%
51920s 306.86 .252-3.71%.309-3.18%.345-4.89%.655-4.09%
51930s 293.21 .243-2.37%.300-2.95%.332-2.96%.633-2.96%
51940s 276.27 .233-0.96%.299-1.34%.328-0.50%.627-0.90%
51950s 283.69 .221-6.11%.287-4.93%.332-4.80%.619-4.86%
51960s 293.33 .216-3.48%.279-3.39%.311-3.23%.589-3.31%
51970s 315.10 .238-0.42%.301-0.04%.341-0.02%.642-0.03%
51980s 315.19 .233-1.08%.295-0.52%.344-0.87%.639-0.71%
51990s 310.82 .245-0.44%.309-0.81%.383-0.54%.693-0.66%
52000s 317.76 .239-2.55%.298-3.28%.376-1.00%.674-2.02%

If you were daring enough to Ed Wade through those tulips, you'll notice that not only has the fourth season, not the worst, players actually improved the most generally speaking in their fourth season. The fifth and the second seem the worst. But I won't let facts get in the way of Baker incentivizing and/or chastising a player.

Comments
2005-07-13 10:06:45
1.   Todd S
Thanks for running the numbers. Sometimes I wish I could live in Dusty's fantasy world.

The statement is laughable on its face. Even if it were true at one time, with modern scouting and information systems, there's no way it's taking pitchers 3 major league seasons to figure out how to pitch a guy.

The media loves Baker, and my best explanation is that it's because he makes their jobs so much easier. Need a quote? Go talk to Dusty! He's not in? Head south a bit and put a microphone in front of Ozzie!

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