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Learning to Walk III
2005-07-04 22:00
by Mike Carminati

So finally I would like to look into whether batters can actually learn how to become more patient and draw more walks after they have reached the majors. I looked at all batters who were below expectations for their careers prior to a given year and were still below expectations for that year but who were above expectations the next year and for their career beyond.

There were 1081 instances in baseball history. Here are the largest turnarounds:

NameAgeYrPreTPA PrePostTPA PostDiff
Eddie Collins221909-0.1424061.008116311.150
Jack Clark231979-0.02112591.06369661.084
Johnny Evers261908-0.10627310.97244791.077
Carl Yastrzemski231963-0.02013620.936126290.956
Dick Wakefield231944-0.0997040.81818010.917
Harry Davis321906-0.04141000.79332790.834
Harry Davis251899-0.03013540.78360250.813
Toby Harrah261975-0.07520060.73467600.809
Early Wynn371957-0.57713970.2035060.781
Gary Sheffield221991-0.01310410.73576780.748
Gary Sheffield241993-0.00918620.73068570.739
Boog Powell211963-0.1004540.63873560.739
Ed Reulbach281911-0.2565500.4754310.731
Frank Robinson221958-0.00413450.717103980.721
Hank Greenberg241935-0.08111660.60749300.688
Tris Speaker221910-0.0447510.641112370.686
Luke Appling271934-0.10315580.57986850.681
Rance Mulliniks241980-0.0555110.62535780.680
Steve O'Neill251917-0.11916480.55939120.678
Tim McCarver311973-0.27348120.40213940.675
Rance Mulliniks261982-0.0526190.62234700.674
Cy Williams281916-0.0309140.62468060.654
Cy Williams341922-0.01340620.60736580.620
Richie Ashburn251952-0.01326400.60570960.619
Billy Nash221887-0.0227220.56659970.588

Eddie Collins went from a better than average second baseman to one of the best all time at age 22 when he started to draw walks.

There are still a couple of issues with this list: 1) 22-year-olds may just be developing. We should limit the actual late walk bloomers by age or previous career plate appearance or both. 2) Some players appear multiple times. For example, Harry Davis age 25 and age 32 both are listed. Did Davis forget suddenly how to draw a walk at age 28 and then remember? Clearly, for someone to qualify, they would need to make the list just once, when they turned a corner in their career and never looked back.

We'll use those criteria to get down to just those batters who qualify next. Then we'll know if it's possible to learn to be more patient as a major-leaguer and what it means for one's career.

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