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Sarge's BB Surge
2005-06-23 16:36
by Mike Carminati
Walking is the very best exercise. Habituate yourself to walk...
— Thomas "Reggie" Jefferson

A walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more.

—William "Author" Shakespeare as quoted by Geddy Lee upon the gilded stage.

There's an email chain going around the SABR mailing list about statistical variations, one-year outliers in certain players' careers. Most of it is mental dross about Brady Anderson's 50-homer season, but the other day there was one entry about ex-Phil Gary "Sarge" Matthews 103-walk season in 1984 (with just two intentional walks). Matthews never had another season in his other 15 before and after 1984 in which he amassed more than 75 bases on balls.

So what's the deal? Did Sarge, who by the way had one of the best right-handed batting stances ever, suddenly learn how to be more selective in 1984 and then promptly forget it the next season? Could some strange statistical phenomenon have occurred in 1984 in which walks in general just went through the roof , affecting Sarge's stats?

Maybe a close look at his stats are in order. I took a look at Matthews' walks and walks per plate appearance for each year. Then I compared them to the league walks per plate appearance average to derive his expected walk total (based on the league average and his plate appearances). Then I compared his actual and expected walk totals to derive two stats: his walks above expectation and his actual-to-expected walk ratio. Here are the results (Note: IBB are removed from the walk totals in all calculations.):

YrTmLgBBIBBPAAdj TPABB/PALg BB/PAExp BBDiffBB Ratio
1972SFNNL7271697.25%7.50%5.18-0.1897%
1973SFNNL5876055988.53%7.61%45.495.51112%
1974SFNNL70563863310.27%8.09%51.2113.79127%
1975SFNNL65549448912.27%8.02%39.2120.79153%
1976SFNNL75367166810.78%7.62%50.8821.12142%
1977ATLNL67362762410.26%7.73%48.2515.75133%
1978ATLNL61254254010.93%7.50%40.5018.50146%
1979ATLNL6056956907.97%7.34%50.664.34109%
1980ATLNL4226196176.48%7.07%43.63-3.6392%
1981PHINL59242842613.38%7.43%31.6325.37180%
1982PHINL6616906899.43%7.05%48.5616.44134%
1983PHINL69352652312.62%7.68%40.1525.85164%
1984CHNNL103260860616.67%7.46%45.1855.82224%
1985CHNNL59236236015.83%7.65%27.5529.45207%
1986CHNNL60143243113.69%7.87%33.9025.10174%
1987CHNNL4146456.67%7.86%3.54-0.5485%
1987SEAAL15013513511.11%8.41%11.353.65132%
Total940468189814310.98%7.64%616.88277.12142%

First, the league average did not increase in 1984. In fact they went down slightly.

You'll note that 1984 was Matthews' career year for walks, but it was not completely out of line with what he did the previous year, what he would do the next year, or with his career in general. He was, after all, 42% better than the league average at acquiring a free base.

The biggest anomaly I do see is his dearth of walks when he was on the Braves. In 1980 he had a career low 42 walks, about three fewer than one would expect for the league average batter. He walked just 6.48 percent of the time. After being traded to the Phils for 1981, he doubled his walk rate to 13.38%. What's doubly odd is that Matthews had walked at about that rate the year before being sent from San Francisco to Atlanta (12.27% in 1975). His walk rate started to drop in his last season with the Giants and just continued to plummet when he was in Atlanta.

Another oddity in Matthews' career is that he is one of five men to ever steal twenty bases and yet ground into more double plays than bases stolen:

NameYrSBGIDP
Jackie Jensen19542232
Gary Matthews19822123
Julio Franco19892127
Ivan Rodriguez19992531
Torii Hunter20042123

But I digress. So how good was Matthews at drawing a walk from an historical standpoint? Is he among the best ever? What about his 1984 season: is it among the best ever? And what about the walk king of the recent years, Barry Bonds? How history are his walks when you ignore intentional walks?

Here are the all-time leaders in career walks above league expectations per plate appearance (min. 400 PA):

NameBBIBBPA Exp BB BB Above Exp Per PA
Max Bishop1153 5776 500.05 652.95 11.30%
Babe Ruth2062 10617 898.25 1,163.75 10.96%
Ted Williams2021869791 941.28 993.72 10.24%
Ed Hogan87 526 34.56 52.44 9.97%
Eddie Stanky996 5435 491.00 505.00 9.29%
Frank Fernandez1649902 72.73 82.27 9.21%
Gene Tenace984585525 423.18 502.82 9.20%
John McGraw836 4926 390.72 445.28 9.04%
Randy Milligan447102594 206.25 230.75 8.93%
Bill Joyce718 4149 348.76 369.24 8.90%
Roy Thomas1042 6575 459.45 582.55 8.86%
Johnny Schulte76 461 35.48 40.52 8.79%
Jack Crooks610 3466 306.55 303.45 8.75%
Mike Fiore1247688 57.56 59.44 8.73%
Roy Cullenbine853 4787 440.53 412.47 8.62%
Yank Robinson664 4167 308.64 355.36 8.53%
Dick Dietz381302244 162.87 188.13 8.50%
Joe Morgan18657611329 835.02 953.98 8.48%
Marty Hopkins85 480 44.55 40.45 8.43%
Bill Salkeld182 1048 95.05 86.95 8.30%
Goat Anderson80 510 37.72 42.28 8.29%
Topsy Hartsel837 5793 367.63 469.37 8.10%
Ferris Fain90434904 505.80 395.20 8.06%
Ken Phelps390282287 180.69 181.31 8.03%
Wes Westrum48992849 253.76 226.24 7.97%
Willie McGill101 587 54.55 46.45 7.91%
Jack Hiatt224181387 97.68 108.32 7.91%
Rickey Henderson21906113346 1,079.61 1,049.39 7.90%
Olaf Henriksen97 598 50.31 46.69 7.81%
Rasty Wright81 480 43.56 37.44 7.80%

Max "Camera Eye" Bishop? Ahead of Babe Ruth and Ted Williams? Bishop, the leadoff hitter in the great Philly A's teams, twice walked eight times in a doubleheader (the record) and drew five walks in a game twice. His career walk total is almost three times his strikeout total (1153 to 452). His on-base percentage was 152 point higher than his batting average. Even though he played in an era in which intentional walks were not tallied, his numbers were not padded due to pitcher avoidance—his career .366 slugging average, 57 points below the adjusted league average, did not intimidate the opposition's pitcher. On the contrary, with Al Simmons and Jimmie Foxx hitting behind him, pitchers would do whatever they could to keep him off the bases.

So where's Barry Bonds, the career walks record holder? He's at number 33. So one could claim bias in the stats due to IBBs. Matthews does fairly well. He's number 430 out of 5159 batters who qualify.

Willie McGill was a pitcher and yet he finishes two spots of Rickey Henderson, the one-time walk king. His odd career line goes like this: .202/.344/.250. He had more walks (101) than hits (97) for his career. It's too bad that he gave as good as he got. He had 701 walks against 510 strikeouts in his pitching career.

Here are the men who earned the most walks above league expectations for their career, and it's a pretty good list:

NameBBIBBPA Exp BB BB Above Exp Per PA
Babe Ruth2062 10617 898.25 1,163.75 10.96%
Rickey Henderson21906113346 1,079.61 1,049.39 7.90%
Ted Williams2021869791 941.28 993.72 10.24%
Joe Morgan18657611329 835.02 953.98 8.48%
Barry Bonds230260411584 858.40 839.60 7.65%
Mel Ott1708 11337 875.09 832.91 7.35%
Mickey Mantle17331269909 849.50 757.50 7.74%
Eddie Yost1614159175 885.82 713.18 7.79%
Max Bishop1153 5776 500.05 652.95 11.30%
Darrell Evans160514110737 814.18 649.82 6.13%
Lou Gehrig1508 9660 869.98 638.02 6.60%
Harmon Killebrew15591609831 785.07 613.93 6.35%
Frank Thomas14501628478 702.91 585.09 7.04%
Roy Thomas1042 6575 459.45 582.55 8.86%
Eddie Mathews144410710101 757.12 579.88 5.80%
Billy Hamilton1187 7584 613.99 573.01 7.56%
Jimmie Foxx1452 9670 887.03 564.97 5.84%
Jimmy Wynn1224848010 575.28 564.72 7.12%
Mike Schmidt150720110062 746.59 559.41 5.67%
Carl Yastrzemski184519013991 1,095.96 559.04 4.05%

Now for the worst at drawing a walk. First, the worst based on walks above expectations per plate appearance, excluding pitchers:

NameBBIBBPA Exp BB BB Above ExpPer PA
Virgil Stallcup51 2131 197.27 -146.27-6.86%
John Leary15 790 68.19 -53.19-6.73%
George Washington11 405 38.20 -27.20-6.72%
Robert Perez110516 44.46 -33.46-6.49%
Garry Hancock125595 45.24 -38.24-6.48%
Jiggs Parrott37 1352 124.54 -87.54-6.48%
Rob Picciolo2511720 134.41 -110.41-6.42%
Bobby Sturgeon34 1279 114.76 -80.76-6.31%
Johnny Walker9 476 38.55 -29.55-6.21%
Kim Batiste145684 50.94 -41.94-6.18%
Dee Miles50 1541 144.89 -94.89-6.16%
Angel Salazar191932 75.04 -57.04-6.13%
Bob Hale263670 61.94 -38.94-5.84%
Herman Reich14 412 37.94 -23.94-5.81%
Bob Talbot16 460 42.40 -26.40-5.74%
Whitey Alperman30 1758 130.80 -100.80-5.73%
Jack McGeachy57 2530 200.85 -143.85-5.69%
Jay Kirke35 1226 104.28 -69.28-5.65%
Don Kolloway189 4244 428.80 -239.80-5.65%
Tuck Stainback64 2383 198.43 -134.43-5.64%
Deivi Cruz121114100 339.82 -229.82-5.62%
Julio Becquer41111029 87.08 -57.08-5.61%
Oscar Azocar122460 35.59 -25.59-5.59%
Tom Carey66 1608 155.47 -89.47-5.56%
Mike Caruso3501140 98.31 -63.31-5.55%
Emil Verban108 3110 279.32 -171.32-5.51%
John Grim85 2797 239.04 -154.04-5.51%
Alvaro Espinoza7612659 219.84 -144.84-5.45%
Gus Getz24 1172 87.83 -63.83-5.45%
Gus Polidor120456 36.51 -24.51-5.37%

Kim Batiste, ah yes, I remember him well. He's right behind the inappropriately named Johnny Walker. You've got to love that Oscar Azocar, the converted pitcher, made the list. Rob Picciolo, Gary Hancock, Angel Salazar, Devi Cruz, Gus Polidor—now them's some bad players, truly offensive. Stallcup, by the way, once drew nine walks in a 589-plate appearance season. His OPS was just 58% of the park-adjusted league average. Ouch!

Now here are the career worst at meeting the league walk expectation:

NameBBIBBPA Exp BB BB Above ExpPer PA
Bill Buckner45011110033 761.73 -422.73-4.26%
Ozzie Guillen239257133 593.61 -379.61-5.34%
Garry Templeton3751448208 603.22 -372.22-4.62%
Willie Davis418759822 705.10 -362.10-3.71%
Doc Cramer572 9933 928.70 -356.70-3.59%
Andre Dawson58914310769 802.26 -356.26-3.35%
Tommy Corcoran382 9368 734.49 -352.49-3.76%
Steve Garvey4791139466 708.65 -342.65-3.66%
Gee Walker330 7211 669.01 -339.01-4.70%
Al Oliver5351199778 744.39 -328.39-3.40%
Shawon Dunston203446276 484.21 -325.21-5.22%
Stuffy McInnis380 8623 690.09 -310.09-3.60%
Joe Carter527869154 748.52 -307.52-3.39%
Vic Power279266461 558.73 -305.73-4.75%
Garret Anderson280676246 518.27 -305.27-4.94%
Everett Scott243 6373 531.53 -288.53-4.53%
Hal Chase276 7939 560.88 -284.88-3.59%
Frank White412278467 668.21 -283.21-3.36%
Manny Sanguillen223965380 407.59 -280.59-5.31%
George Sisler472 9013 748.56 -276.56-3.07%
Aurelio Rodriguez324377078 560.44 -273.44-3.88%
Kirby Puckett450857831 636.41 -271.41-3.50%
Alfredo Griffin338377330 569.24 -268.24-3.68%
Roberto Clemente62116710212 722.00 -268.00-2.67%
Tim Foli265296573 497.73 -261.73-4.00%
Tommy Davis381667739 575.36 -260.36-3.39%
Buck Weaver183 5292 442.20 -259.20-4.90%
Willie Wilson425278317 656.76 -258.76-3.12%
Ivan Rodriguez400547215 604.38 -258.38-3.61%
Larry Bowa474459103 687.25 -258.25-2.85%

Shame on those Dodgers. It seems like they should have been more aggressive drawing a walk with their home park. Especially Bill Buck, whose career OBP was just 32 point higher than his batting average and who averaged just 29 walks per every 162 games.

Of course there's Roberto "You Can't Walk Off The Island" Clemente as well as a number of manager's pet (Ozzie Guillen and Shawon Dunston). And of course, I had to leave off with the Phils one-time leadoff hitter and offensive albatross, Larry Bowa.

Comments
2005-06-24 06:38:54
1.   Lefty
I always lumped Matthews' 1984 BB surge together with Willie Mays v.1971 and Toby Harrah v.1986. Good players with slowing bats laying off pitches they can no longer hit, getting respect from the men in blue. Followed by a precipitous offensive decline.
2005-06-30 08:00:16
2.   PhillyJ
I beg to differ with Lefty...

He had a far superior offensive season in '84 than '83 and simply does not support the "slowing bat" theory whatsoever. And since when did the men in blue give breaks to the Cubbies? And its not like Sarge was McCovey, Mays or even Al Oliver in terms of earning "respect" from the men in blue.

It certainly is an anamoly...my first thought was that he probably had better protection in the lineup in Philadelphia nad got better pitches to hit...however it seems that we can cut through all the "slowing bat" and "respect from men in blue" and attribute it the the fact that he simply had a better offensive season in 1984 with the Cubs than he had in '83 with the Phils.

It is counterintuitive it seems to attribute the increase in walks to the team. In Philly in '83, he typically hit 5th or 6th (after Sixto Lezcano and before whoever the CF was - Gross, Dernier, Maddox)...little protection. In Chicago, he hit third (if front of some combination of Durham, Moreland and Cey). One would think that he would get better pitches to hit in Chicago than Philly and fewer walks.

So, why the walks? Could it be that he just had a better year and was pitched more carefully in '84 when the entire Cubs team had career years? Not sure but it seems more logical than the "slowing bat/respect" theory.

I did learn that he had he highest batting average of any regular on the '83 Phils team at .258. Could that be the lowest leading b.a of any League champion in history?

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