Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Of a thousand shavers, two do not shave so much alike as not to be distinguished.
Samuel Johnson
The other day I looked at Craig Biggio's run at the "modern" hit by a pitch record and which batters exceed HBP expectations the most. Next, I'd like to look at the other side of the equation: which pitchers like to shave batters the closest.
Using each pitcher's career HBP totals and the his career batters faced pitching (or innings pitched for the years in which BFP were not kept), I calculated the difference between each pitcher's actual and expected HBP totals. Here are the ones that exceeded expectations the most:
Name | First | Last | Act HBP | IP | Exp HBP | Diff | Act-to-Exp |
Charlie Hough | 1970 | 1994 | 174 | 3,801.33 | 86.97 | 87.03 | 200% |
Don Drysdale | 1956 | 1969 | 154 | 3,432.00 | 78.32 | 75.68 | 197% |
Jim Bunning | 1955 | 1971 | 160 | 3,760.33 | 88.17 | 71.83 | 181% |
Ed Doheny | 1895 | 1903 | 132 | 1,392.67 | 62.53 | 69.47 | 211% |
Dave Stieb | 1979 | 1998 | 129 | 2,895.33 | 64.22 | 64.78 | 201% |
Jack Warhop | 1908 | 1915 | 114 | 1,412.67 | 51.22 | 62.78 | 223% |
Howard Ehmke | 1915 | 1930 | 137 | 2,820.67 | 75.42 | 61.58 | 182% |
Tommy Byrne | 1943 | 1957 | 85 | 1,362.00 | 29.09 | 55.91 | 292% |
Jakie May | 1917 | 1932 | 88 | 1,562.33 | 33.16 | 54.84 | 265% |
Jack Billingham | 1968 | 1980 | 98 | 2,230.67 | 47.05 | 50.95 | 208% |
Chan Ho Park | 1994 | 2004 | 106 | 1,454.67 | 55.90 | 50.10 | 190% |
Jim Lonborg | 1965 | 1979 | 105 | 2,464.33 | 55.68 | 49.32 | 189% |
Randy Johnson | 1988 | 2004 | 156 | 3,368.00 | 107.32 | 48.68 | 145% |
Don Cardwell | 1957 | 1970 | 98 | 2,122.67 | 50.32 | 47.68 | 195% |
Tim Wakefield | 1992 | 2004 | 125 | 2,066.67 | 77.36 | 47.64 | 162% |
Bert Blyleven | 1970 | 1992 | 155 | 4,970.00 | 108.58 | 46.42 | 143% |
Frank Lary | 1954 | 1965 | 97 | 2,162.33 | 50.58 | 46.42 | 192% |
Jamey Wright | 1996 | 2004 | 89 | 1,134.33 | 44.42 | 44.58 | 200% |
Nolan Ryan | 1966 | 1993 | 158 | 5,386.00 | 113.69 | 44.31 | 139% |
Darryl Kile | 1991 | 2002 | 117 | 2,165.33 | 73.56 | 43.44 | 159% |
Mike Smithson | 1982 | 1989 | 73 | 1,356.33 | 30.86 | 42.14 | 237% |
Jeff Pfeffer | 1911 | 1924 | 105 | 2,407.33 | 62.90 | 42.10 | 167% |
Cy Morgan | 1903 | 1913 | 95 | 1,445.33 | 54.25 | 40.75 | 175% |
Orel Hershiser | 1983 | 2000 | 117 | 3,130.33 | 76.68 | 40.32 | 153% |
Chief Hogsett | 1929 | 1944 | 60 | 1,222.00 | 20.18 | 39.82 | 297% |
Ed Willett | 1906 | 1915 | 106 | 1,773.33 | 66.78 | 39.22 | 159% |
Pedro Astacio | 1992 | 2004 | 108 | 1,979.67 | 69.09 | 38.91 | 156% |
Harry McIntire | 1905 | 1913 | 96 | 1,650.00 | 57.51 | 38.49 | 167% |
George Uhle | 1919 | 1936 | 113 | 3,119.67 | 74.68 | 38.32 | 151% |
Kerry Wood | 1998 | 2004 | 78 | 1,043.00 | 40.16 | 37.84 | 194% |
Mike Boddicker | 1980 | 1993 | 87 | 2,123.67 | 50.75 | 36.25 | 171% |
Mark Leiter | 1990 | 2001 | 75 | 1,184.33 | 39.25 | 35.75 | 191% |
Will White | 1877 | 1886 | 68 | 3,542.67 | 32.33 | 35.67 | 210% |
Roy Parmelee | 1929 | 1939 | 55 | 1,120.33 | 20.36 | 34.64 | 270% |
Pedro Martinez | 1992 | 2004 | 115 | 2,296.00 | 80.52 | 34.48 | 143% |
Otto Hess | 1902 | 1915 | 83 | 1,418.00 | 48.77 | 34.23 | 170% |
Jeff Weaver | 1999 | 2004 | 82 | 1,172.00 | 48.11 | 33.89 | 170% |
By the way, though Mike Piazza may beg to differ, Roger Clemens ranks only 189th out of 1073 qualifiers. Here's his line:
Name | First | Last | Act HBP | IP | Exp HBP | Diff | Act-to-Exp |
Roger Clemens | 1984 | 2004 | 147 | 4493 | 137.06 | 9.93 | 107.25% |
Oddly, Sal Maglie is three men behind him, but he did have a much shorter career:
Name | First | Last | Act HBP | IP | Exp HBP | Diff | Act-to-Exp |
Sal Maglie | 1945 | 1958 | 44 | 1723 | 34.18 | 9.824 | 128.75% |
Now, here are the pitchers with the least HBP as compared with expected:
Name | First | Last | Act HBP | IP | Exp HBP | Diff | Act-to-Exp |
Cy Young | 1890 | 1911 | 163 | 7,354.67 | 1,101.26 | -938.26 | 15% |
Kid Nichols | 1890 | 1906 | 133 | 5,056.33 | 893.37 | -760.37 | 15% |
Joe McGinnity | 1899 | 1908 | 182 | 3,441.33 | 515.13 | -333.13 | 35% |
Jack Chesbro | 1899 | 1909 | 113 | 2,896.67 | 362.56 | -249.56 | 31% |
Bill Donovan | 1898 | 1918 | 91 | 2,964.67 | 296.57 | -205.57 | 31% |
Rube Waddell | 1897 | 1910 | 117 | 2,961.33 | 315.41 | -198.41 | 37% |
Christy Mathewson | 1900 | 1916 | 59 | 4,780.67 | 212.69 | -153.69 | 28% |
Al Orth | 1895 | 1909 | 79 | 3,354.67 | 187.80 | -108.80 | 42% |
Jack Powell | 1897 | 1912 | 121 | 4,389.00 | 227.21 | -106.21 | 53% |
George Mullin | 1902 | 1915 | 131 | 3,686.67 | 223.23 | -92.23 | 59% |
Addie Joss | 1902 | 1910 | 60 | 2,327.00 | 151.86 | -91.86 | 40% |
Bill Dineen | 1898 | 1909 | 77 | 3,074.67 | 168.85 | -91.85 | 46% |
Ed Walsh | 1904 | 1917 | 54 | 2,964.33 | 144.56 | -90.56 | 37% |
Harry Howell | 1898 | 1910 | 97 | 2,567.67 | 179.21 | -82.21 | 54% |
Deacon Phillippe | 1899 | 1911 | 60 | 2,607.00 | 141.60 | -81.60 | 42% |
Noodles Hahn | 1899 | 1906 | 52 | 2,029.33 | 130.81 | -78.81 | 40% |
Jack Taylor | 1898 | 1907 | 92 | 2,617.00 | 156.47 | -64.47 | 59% |
Eddie Plank | 1901 | 1917 | 196 | 4,495.67 | 259.48 | -63.48 | 76% |
Tom Glavine | 1987 | 2004 | 52 | 3,740.33 | 115.36 | -63.36 | 45% |
Warren Spahn | 1942 | 1965 | 42 | 5,243.67 | 104.09 | -62.09 | 40% |
Mike Mussina | 1991 | 2004 | 36 | 2,833.33 | 97.14 | -61.14 | 37% |
Red Donahue | 1893 | 1906 | 101 | 2,975.33 | 159.41 | -58.41 | 63% |
Pete Alexander | 1911 | 1930 | 70 | 5,190.00 | 127.80 | -57.80 | 55% |
Mike Cuellar | 1959 | 1977 | 12 | 2,808.00 | 65.34 | -53.34 | 18% |
Brickyard Kennedy | 1892 | 1903 | 31 | 3,021.00 | 82.69 | -51.69 | 37% |
Stan Coveleski | 1912 | 1928 | 30 | 3,082.00 | 81.21 | -51.21 | 37% |
Eddie Cicotte | 1905 | 1920 | 49 | 3,223.33 | 99.96 | -50.96 | 49% |
Herb Pennock | 1912 | 1934 | 36 | 3,571.67 | 86.86 | -50.86 | 41% |
Rube Marquard | 1908 | 1925 | 39 | 3,306.67 | 89.83 | -50.83 | 43% |
Vic Willis | 1898 | 1910 | 157 | 3,996.00 | 206.99 | -49.99 | 76% |
Steve Carlton | 1965 | 1988 | 53 | 5,217.33 | 101.89 | -48.89 | 52% |
Curt Schilling | 1988 | 2004 | 44 | 2,812.67 | 92.46 | -48.46 | 48% |
Bill Bernhard | 1899 | 1907 | 28 | 1,792.00 | 75.58 | -47.58 | 37% |
Jim Palmer | 1965 | 1984 | 38 | 3,948.00 | 85.33 | -47.33 | 45% |
George Winter | 1901 | 1908 | 44 | 1,656.00 | 90.36 | -46.36 | 49% |
Vida Blue | 1969 | 1986 | 23 | 3,343.33 | 67.93 | -44.93 | 34% |
Ted Lyons | 1923 | 1946 | 31 | 4,161.00 | 74.31 | -43.31 | 42% |
Whitey Ford | 1950 | 1967 | 28 | 3,170.33 | 70.49 | -42.49 | 40% |
Kirk Rueter | 1993 | 2004 | 24 | 1,810.67 | 66.38 | -42.38 | 36% |
Billy Pierce | 1945 | 1964 | 30 | 3,306.67 | 72.16 | -42.16 | 42% |
Mordecai Brown | 1903 | 1916 | 63 | 3,172.33 | 104.57 | -41.57 | 60% |
Greg Swindell | 1986 | 2002 | 21 | 2,233.33 | 62.54 | -41.54 | 34% |
Juan Marichal | 1960 | 1975 | 40 | 3,507.33 | 80.66 | -40.66 | 50% |
Dolf Luque | 1914 | 1935 | 26 | 3,220.33 | 66.55 | -40.55 | 39% |
Robin Roberts | 1948 | 1966 | 54 | 4,688.67 | 94.09 | -40.09 | 57% |
Andy Pettitte | 1995 | 2004 | 31 | 1,875.67 | 70.56 | -39.56 | 44% |
If we look at team totals, we can see how much entire staffs exceed league expectations for HBP. That is, which teams plunked others the most? The 2004 Red Sox are in the top ten for exceeding the expected team HBP. They also have a number of recent teams near the top. Then again, the D Rays have three teams in the top ten, so who's to say if it's due more to incompetence than malice:
Yr | Team | Act HBP | Act BFP | IP | Exp HBP | Diff |
1922 | Detroit Tigers | 84 | 6148 | 1,391.00 | 42.84 | 41.16 |
1884 | Cincinnati Red Stockings | 78 | 4175 | 983.67 | 40.18 | 37.82 |
1899 | Cleveland Spiders | 109 | 0 | 1,264.00 | 72.51 | 36.49 |
1996 | California Angels | 84 | 6461 | 1,439.00 | 51.91 | 32.09 |
2002 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 94 | 6424 | 1,440.33 | 63.59 | 30.41 |
2003 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 95 | 6340 | 1,436.67 | 64.69 | 30.31 |
1885 | Cincinnati Red Stockings | 72 | 4273 | 999.33 | 42.30 | 29.70 |
2004 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 93 | 6261 | 1,417.00 | 64.11 | 28.89 |
2004 | Boston Red Sox | 92 | 6222 | 1,451.33 | 63.71 | 28.29 |
1903 | Philadelphia Athletics | 71 | 4987 | 1,207.00 | 43.25 | 27.75 |
1977 | Seattle Mariners | 61 | 6282 | 1,433.00 | 33.43 | 27.57 |
1971 | Houston Astros | 60 | 6121 | 1,471.33 | 32.78 | 27.22 |
1899 | New York Giants | 100 | 0 | 1,278.33 | 73.33 | 26.67 |
1998 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 81 | 6269 | 1,443.00 | 54.42 | 26.58 |
1996 | Detroit Tigers | 80 | 6713 | 1,432.67 | 53.94 | 26.06 |
1923 | Boston Red Sox | 68 | 5994 | 1,372.00 | 42.01 | 25.99 |
2001 | Boston Red Sox | 93 | 6272 | 1,448.00 | 67.14 | 25.86 |
1911 | Philadelphia Athletics | 81 | 5672 | 1,375.67 | 55.97 | 25.03 |
1966 | Philadelphia Phillies | 61 | 6132 | 1,459.67 | 36.33 | 24.67 |
1975 | Milwaukee Brewers | 58 | 6316 | 1,431.67 | 33.73 | 24.27 |
2002 | Boston Red Sox | 84 | 6049 | 1,446.00 | 59.88 | 24.12 |
1920 | St. Louis Cardinals | 58 | 6100 | 1,426.67 | 33.96 | 24.04 |
1914 | Detroit Tigers | 65 | 5734 | 1,412.00 | 41.85 | 23.15 |
2003 | Colorado Rockies | 84 | 6364 | 1,420.00 | 60.89 | 23.11 |
1953 | Philadelphia Athletics | 57 | 6186 | 1,409.00 | 34.06 | 22.94 |
Here are the lowest though they are all from the high-HBP early years:
Yr | Team | Act HBP | Act BFP | IP | Exp HBP | Diff |
1898 | Cleveland Spiders | 57 | 1554 | 1,334.00 | 309.03 | -252.03 |
1898 | Boston Beaneaters | 66 | 1572 | 1,340.00 | 311.75 | -245.75 |
1897 | Boston Beaneaters | 45 | 1516 | 1,194.33 | 273.51 | -228.51 |
1897 | Cleveland Spiders | 45 | 1423 | 1,118.67 | 257.24 | -212.24 |
1899 | St. Louis Perfectos | 54 | 1541 | 1,340.67 | 257.70 | -203.70 |
1897 | Brooklyn Bridegrooms | 52 | 1283 | 1,194.67 | 243.26 | -191.26 |
1899 | Baltimore Orioles | 71 | 1573 | 1,304.33 | 259.99 | -188.99 |
1898 | Louisville Colonels | 94 | 1333 | 1,334.00 | 276.78 | -182.78 |
1899 | Boston Beaneaters | 69 | 1404 | 1,348.00 | 241.66 | -172.66 |
1900 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 67 | 1812 | 1,229.00 | 205.38 | -138.38 |
1900 | St. Louis Cardinals | 43 | 1325 | 1,217.33 | 166.81 | -123.81 |
1900 | Brooklyn Superbas | 72 | 1645 | 1,225.67 | 193.00 | -121.00 |
1899 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68 | 781 | 1,364.00 | 170.55 | -102.55 |
1906 | New York Highlanders | 45 | 3630 | 1,357.67 | 136.92 | -91.92 |
1899 | Louisville Colonels | 66 | 659 | 1,351.67 | 155.31 | -89.31 |
1901 | Baltimore Orioles | 48 | 3024 | 1,158.00 | 136.99 | -88.99 |
1900 | Boston Beaneaters | 52 | 962 | 1,240.33 | 140.49 | -88.49 |
1897 | Louisville Colonels | 88 | 818 | 1,138.00 | 176.21 | -88.21 |
1901 | Boston Americans | 42 | 2739 | 1,217.00 | 129.73 | -87.73 |
1901 | Boston Beaneaters | 38 | 5115 | 1,263.00 | 122.99 | -84.99 |
1898 | Washington Senators | 80 | 509 | 1,307.00 | 150.91 | -70.91 |
1901 | Philadelphia Athletics | 59 | 2604 | 1,200.67 | 127.10 | -68.10 |
1905 | Detroit Tigers | 51 | 2896 | 1,348.00 | 118.25 | -67.25 |
1898 | Brooklyn Bridegrooms | 57 | 293 | 1,298.67 | 117.27 | -60.27 |
1905 | New York Highlanders | 44 | 2233 | 1,353.67 | 103.10 | -59.10 |
Do the Rays and Bosox get into beanball wars against each other because they're both the types of teams that would be on this list, or did they get on this list because they got into a beanball war with each other?
Johnson, Walter not Samuel, actually holds the career record for hit batsmen at 203. He comes in at #60, exceeding expectations by 24.76 hit batsmen.
Ken,
That needs some further investigation: spec. how many HBP occurred in Red Sox-D Ray games. Going on anecdotal evidence (Jeter and Soriano comes to mind), the bulk of the HBP did not come in their mutual contests.
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