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Home on the Range
2005-05-26 21:58
by Mike Carminati

Since I posted "Road Kill" documenting the Astros' road woes, I've been playing around with the yearly home-road splits to see what else I can beat from that dead horse.

I ran all seasons for all teams to see whether the home or road records correlate to overall success. First, I compared the difference between a team's home and road record to its overall record. Do teams that perform best at home perform best overall? Or the road?

The results were that it just doesn't matter. There's no correlation whatsoever (coffecient of -0.006).

Home and road records correlate about equally well to the overall record (0.898 and 0.897 respectively), which is pretty much intuitive. OK, but how well does a team's home record correlate to its road record? Fairly well, but not great (0.611).

Since that didn't yield that much, let's next look at playoff teams. Do they behave differently than teams overall?

Overall playoff teams had a home winning percentage of .645, a road winning percentage of .570, a home-road difference of .075, and an overall percentage of .605. Again, overall percentage and home-road difference are unrelated (-.013). Home and road records for playoff teams correlate less well to their overall percentage (.726 and .734).

The one big surprise is that home and road winning percentages have almost nothing to do with each (coefficient of .078). Ok, maybe that's not the biggest surprise.

Anyway, here are the most extreme splits among playoff teams. First, biggest home-to-road difference:

TeamYrH PCTR PCTOverall PCTDiff
Philadelphia Athletics1902.767.429.606.339
Minnesota Twins1987.691.358.525.333
New York Yankees1961.802.543.669.259
Montreal Expos1981.679.423.556.255
Cincinnati Reds1975.790.543.667.247
Kansas City Royals1978.691.444.568.247
St. Louis Browns1944.701.455.578.247
San Francisco Giants1962.744.506.624.238
Boston Red Sox1918.700.464.595.236
Philadelphia Phillies1977.741.506.623.235

Next, least home-to-road difference:

TeamYrH PCTR PCTOverall PCTDiff
Kansas City Royals1981.404.554.485-.149
St. Louis Cardinals1928.545.688.617-.143
Cincinnati Reds1972.553.679.617-.127
Oakland Athletics1971.568.688.627-.120
Brooklyn Dodgers1952.577.680.619-.103
Atlanta Braves2001.494.593.543-.099
New York Yankees1976.563.658.610-.096
Washington Senators1933.605.697.647-.092
New York Yankees1994.579.661.619-.082
New York Yankees1923.605.684.645-.079
Comments
2005-05-27 06:19:08
1.   rbj
What, nothing on the 1899 Cleveland Spiders?
2005-05-27 07:07:36
2.   Mike Carminati
Sorry, my data only goes back to 1901.
2005-05-28 18:21:45
3.   Adam B
Mike, the 94 Yankees show up on your list, but seeing as there were no playoffs that year, can those numbers count in the list?
2005-05-31 05:32:53
4.   Mike Carminati
Adam B,

Sorry, I meant playoff teams and division/league champs in years without playoffs (1901, 1902, 1904, 1994).

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