Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Mike's Baseball Rants


10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Shy Sox?
2005-05-23 20:50
by Mike Carminati

The White Sox are now officially so publicly underrated that they are overrated. Watching the Jeannie Zelasko, who was great in "Team America" by the way, interview Ozzie Guillen over the weekend made me pine for heaping mounds of Pat O'Brien and Dr. Phil.

I am still surprised that the Sox have sustained their high level of play. I was highly suspicious. They have now won 31 of 44 ballgames, slightly over one quarter of a season. So what does a quarter of a season mean in the long run?

Here are all the teams that started the season 31-13 or better since 1901 (in reverse chronological order). Also, listed is how well they fared over the entire season and their playoff result if any:

TmStartDateEndDateWLWPRSRAWPTot WTotLWPRnkPostseason
ATL3/31/20035/18/20033113.705246202.58910161.6231Division Champ
SEA4/2/20015/22/20013212.727254188.63411646.7161Division Champ
CLE4/6/19995/25/19993113.705311223.6489765.5991Division Champ
NYY4/1/19985/25/19983410.773288187.68811448.7041WS Champ
ATL3/31/19985/17/19983113.705245160.68610656.6541Division Champ
ATL4/1/19975/20/19973113.705221137.70610161.6231Division Champ
CLE4/27/19956/14/19953311.750267184.66410044.6941AL Pennant
PHI4/5/19935/25/19933113.705225177.6089765.5991NL Pennant
CIN4/9/19906/2/19903212.727213137.6929171.5621WS Champ
NYM4/4/19885/26/19883113.705213151.65210060.6251Division Champ
NYM4/8/19866/1/19863113.705212160.62610854.6671WS Champ
DET4/3/19845/28/1984368.818251144.73410458.6421WS Champ
LAD4/9/19815/27/19813113.705182113.7056347.5732WS Champ
LAD4/7/19775/27/19773311.750250169.6729864.6051NL Pennant
PHI4/10/19766/3/19763212.727252160.69710161.6231Division Champ
LAD4/5/19745/24/19743113.705250148.72310260.6301NL Pennant
OAK4/15/19726/7/19723113.705180136.6259362.6001WS Champ
SFG4/6/19715/25/19713113.705202140.6629072.5561Division Champ
BAL4/7/19705/26/19703113.705220151.66610854.6671WS Champ
MIN4/7/19705/31/19703113.705243170.6589864.6051Division Champ
CIN4/6/19705/25/19703212.727226158.65810260.6301NL Pennant
BAL4/8/19695/24/19693113.705216129.72010953.6731AL Pennant
NYY4/15/19586/7/19583212.727216133.7089262.5971WS Champ
BRO4/13/19556/1/19553311.750261178.6689855.6411WS Champ
NYY4/13/19556/1/19553113.705247154.7049658.6231AL Pennant
NYY4/14/19536/7/19533311.750265170.6939952.6561WS Champ
BRO4/15/19526/7/19523211.744230163.6539657.6271NL Pennant
NYY4/18/19506/7/19503113.705271203.6299856.6361WS Champ
CLE4/20/19486/12/19483113.705260165.6979758.6261WS Champ
BOS4/16/19466/4/1946359.795249154.70710450.6751AL Pennant
NYY4/14/19426/4/19423311.750226138.71210351.6691AL Pennant
BRO4/15/19416/2/19413113.705236166.65610054.6491NL Pennant
NYY4/20/19396/8/1939359.795292153.76510645.7021WS Champ
PHA4/14/19316/7/19313311.750253165.68610745.7041AL Pennant
PHA4/17/19296/7/19293311.750303175.73210446.6931WS Champ
NYY4/11/19286/3/1928368.818283174.70910153.6561WS Champ
NYY4/13/19266/2/19263212.727291206.6539163.5911AL Pennant
NYG4/17/19236/5/19233311.750286197.6649558.6211NL Pennant
CHC4/16/19186/12/19183113.705190120.6998445.6511NL Pennant
PHA4/10/19136/6/19133410.773246171.6609657.6271WS Champ
NYG4/11/19126/11/1912358.814298151.77610348.6821NL Pennant
PIT4/14/19096/11/19093212.727196142.64311042.7241WS Champ
CHC4/11/19076/9/1907359.795173110.69610745.7041WS Champ
NYG4/14/19056/5/19053410.773249106.82710548.6861WS Champ
PIT4/17/19026/12/1902349.791264126.79510336.7411NL Pennant

On average, those teams (56 in total) registered a .635 winning percentage for the season. That's slightly under 103 wins. Also, 45 of 55 who were playoff-eligible (i.e., all but the '94 Yanks) made the playoffs. That's 82%. As a matter of fact, there are only two teams in the last 43 years who did not make the playoffs after starting the season as well as the White Sox (2002 Red Sox and 1972 Mets).

Let's say that the Sox's odds of making the postseason are 82%. Am I crazy in thinking that the Twins can still win the division? Or maybe the wild card will come out of the AL Central for the first time ever.

2005-05-24 09:05:27
1.   TFD
Mike: Great stuff. It's what I've been talking about with Scott (that GFWS writer at the Toaster ;-)). Basically the GFWS have to only play .500 or .550 the rest of the way to win the division; and that's not a stretch by any means.

Ergo, yes the Twins are playing for the Wild Card, a feat of which is not too far fetched. The Yanks won't win 95/97, so it's basically the Twins v. BoSox. The way I see it, the edge right now goes with the Sox by about 2 games. The Twins young hitters are just not capable of producing enough runs (yet). That is unless Sweet Cheeks can ever get anywhere near .285/.290 again with some power.

2005-05-24 18:22:31
2.   Mike Carminati

Seems like a fair assessment. I think the Sox may have trouble because of age and the Twins may improve as their youngsters mature. Then again, I don;t really like the Red Sox, so I might be biased.

By the way, is Sweet a brother of Mo?

2005-05-25 14:29:29
3.   TFD
Nah....Sweet is a much better defensive player, though.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.