Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Everyone is talking about Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox as the surprise team so far this season. The ChiSox's success sure seems startlingOK, enough sibilance. However, the more precedent bending surprise has to be the reborn Arizona Diamondbacksget it? Reborn Phoenix?
The Diamondbacks were atrocious last year. They tied the second-year Mets (1962) for the 31st worst record in the "Modern" era (51-111 for a .315 winning percentage). In the expansion era (1961 to today), there have been just four teams with a worse record:
Team | Yr | W | L | PCT |
New York Mets | 1962 | 40 | 120 | .250 |
Detroit Tigers | 2003 | 43 | 119 | .265 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 1961 | 47 | 107 | .305 |
New York Mets | 1965 | 50 | 112 | .309 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 2004 | 51 | 111 | .315 |
New York Mets | 1963 | 51 | 111 | .315 |
San Diego Padres | 1969 | 52 | 110 | .321 |
Montreal Expos | 1969 | 52 | 110 | .321 |
New York Mets | 1964 | 53 | 109 | .327 |
Detroit Tigers | 1996 | 53 | 109 | .327 |
Now the Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West, a half game ahead of the Padres. No one gave them a chance to finish much higher than fourth at the start of the season (I had them third). I still think that the Padres will win the division (they were my preseason pick). But the D-backs rush back to respectability could be unprecedented at least in the last 115 years.
Arizona's current record is 27-18 or exactly a .600 winning percentage. That translates into about 97 wins over the course of a 162-game schedule. Only three teams have improved to at least .600 after registering a season with a winning percentage no better than .315, and the last one was in 1890. Actually, the biggest one-season improvement in the last hundred years for a team with a .600 or better winning percentage was byyou guessed itthe D-Backs in their second season, 1999:
Worst to .600+ | Yr | W | L | PCT | Pos | Prev Yr | W | L | PCT | Pos |
Louisville Colonels | 1890 | 88 | 44 | .667 | 1 | 1889 | 27 | 111 | .196 | 8 |
Cincinnati Reds | 1878 | 37 | 23 | .617 | 2 | 1877 | 15 | 42 | .263 | 6 |
Hartford Dark Blues | 1875 | 54 | 28 | .659 | 3 | 1874 | 16 | 37 | .302 | 7 |
Columbus Buckeyes | 1884 | 69 | 39 | .639 | 2 | 1883 | 32 | 65 | .330 | 6 |
New York Giants | 1903 | 84 | 55 | .604 | 2 | 1902 | 48 | 88 | .353 | 8 |
Brooklyn Superbas | 1899 | 101 | 47 | .682 | 1 | 1898 | 54 | 91 | .372 | 10 |
Detroit Wolverines | 1886 | 87 | 36 | .707 | 2 | 1885 | 41 | 67 | .380 | 6 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 1999 | 100 | 62 | .617 | 1 | 1998 | 65 | 97 | .401 | 5 |
Cincinnati Reds | 1961 | 93 | 61 | .604 | 1 | 1960 | 67 | 87 | .435 | 6 |
Philadelphia Athletics | 1909 | 95 | 58 | .621 | 2 | 1908 | 68 | 85 | .444 | 6 |
San Francisco Giants | 1993 | 103 | 59 | .636 | 2 | 1992 | 72 | 90 | .444 | 5 |
Brooklyn Grooms | 1892 | 95 | 59 | .617 | 3 | 1891 | 61 | 76 | .445 | 6 |
Brooklyn Bridegrooms | 1888 | 88 | 52 | .629 | 2 | 1887 | 60 | 74 | .448 | 6 |
New York Mets | 1969 | 100 | 62 | .617 | 1 | 1968 | 73 | 89 | .451 | 9 |
Chicago White Sox | 1915 | 93 | 61 | .604 | 3 | 1914 | 70 | 84 | .455 | 7 |
New York Giants | 1954 | 97 | 57 | .630 | 1 | 1953 | 70 | 84 | .455 | 5 |
Boston Braves | 1914 | 94 | 59 | .614 | 1 | 1913 | 69 | 82 | .457 | 5 |
Chicago White Sox | 1919 | 88 | 52 | .629 | 1 | 1918 | 57 | 67 | .460 | 6 |
Boston Red Sox | 1946 | 104 | 50 | .675 | 1 | 1945 | 71 | 83 | .461 | 7 |
Detroit Tigers | 1961 | 101 | 61 | .623 | 2 | 1960 | 71 | 83 | .461 | 6 |
Baltimore Orioles | 1894 | 89 | 39 | .695 | 1 | 1893 | 60 | 70 | .462 | 8 |
St. Louis Browns | 1883 | 65 | 33 | .663 | 2 | 1882 | 37 | 43 | .463 | 5 |
Anaheim Angels | 2002 | 99 | 63 | .611 | 2 | 2001 | 75 | 87 | .463 | 3 |
Troy Haymakers | 1872 | 15 | 10 | .600 | 5 | 1871 | 13 | 15 | .464 | 6 |
Washington Senators | 1930 | 94 | 60 | .610 | 2 | 1929 | 71 | 81 | .467 | 5 |
Arizona has almost doubled its winning percentage in one season (90.4% improvement). If they can keep that up for an entire season, they would have the tenth best single-season improvement of all time and the best since 1898:
Team | Yr | W | L | PCT | Pos | Prev Yr | W | L | PCT | Pos | Ratio |
Louisville Colonels | 1890 | 88 | 44 | .667 | 1 | 1889 | 27 | 111 | .196 | 8 | 3.407 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 1891 | 55 | 80 | .407 | 8 | 1890 | 23 | 113 | .169 | 8 | 2.409 |
Cincinnati Reds | 1878 | 37 | 23 | .617 | 2 | 1877 | 15 | 42 | .263 | 6 | 2.343 |
Hartford Dark Blues | 1875 | 54 | 28 | .659 | 3 | 1874 | 16 | 37 | .302 | 7 | 2.181 |
St. Louis Perfectos | 1899 | 84 | 67 | .556 | 5 | 1898 | 39 | 111 | .260 | 12 | 2.140 |
Baltimore Orioles | 1884 | 63 | 43 | .594 | 6 | 1883 | 28 | 68 | .292 | 8 | 2.038 |
Philadelphia Quakers | 1884 | 39 | 73 | .348 | 6 | 1883 | 17 | 81 | .173 | 8 | 2.007 |
Troy Trojans | 1880 | 41 | 42 | .494 | 4 | 1879 | 19 | 56 | .253 | 8 | 1.950 |
Columbus Buckeyes | 1884 | 69 | 39 | .639 | 2 | 1883 | 32 | 65 | .330 | 6 | 1.937 |
Cincinnati Reds | 1877 | 15 | 42 | .263 | 6 | 1876 | 9 | 56 | .138 | 8 | 1.901 |
Detroit Wolverines | 1886 | 87 | 36 | .707 | 2 | 1885 | 41 | 67 | .380 | 6 | 1.863 |
Boston Bees | 1936 | 71 | 83 | .461 | 6 | 1935 | 38 | 115 | .248 | 8 | 1.856 |
All this may be enough to say that the D-Backs continuing to play at such a high level is a long shot at best. But I feel vindicated for saying in the offseason that they may have one of the fastest bounces back to respectability ever. Now, if could just justify picking the Indians second the White Sox fourth
Thanks.
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