Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Dontrelle Willis beat Roy Oswalt and the Astros, 2-1, yesterday in an old-fashioned pitchers duel. In the process, Willis ran his record to an incredible 7-0 in seven starts and lowered his major-league leading ERA to 1.08.
Mark Simon at Baseball Tonight found that Willis is just one win shy of the best starts in the last 90 years for pitchers under the age of 24 (Source: Elias Sports Bureau):
Year | Pitcher | Team | Starts |
2005 | Dontrelle Willis | Marlins | 7 |
1981 | Fernando Valenzuela | Dodgers | 8 |
1973 | Roger Moret | Red Sox | 8 |
1945 | Boo Ferriss | Red Sox | 8 |
1917 | Babe Ruth | Red Sox | 8 |
When you look at his projections for the year, it gets even more impressive:
Period | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | HR | BB | SO | K/9 | W | L | WHIP | BAA | ERA |
2005 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 50.0 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 7.20 | 7 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.19 | 1.08 |
2005--Proj | 33 | 33 | 14 | 10 | 238.0 | 162 | 33 | 10 | 48 | 191 | 7.20 | 33 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.19 | 1.08 |
CAREER | 66 | 66 | 7 | 4 | 407.2 | 392 | 167 | 35 | 129 | 321 | 7.09 | 31 | 17 | 1.28 | 0.25 | 3.38 |
It gets all the more impressive when you consider that Willis was 10-11 with a 4.02 ERA last season. Let's say he wins twenty games this year and lowers his ERA by three full points from last season, however improbable that may be, he would be just the fourth man to go from a .500 or worse winning percentage one year to winning 20 the next while lowering his ERA by at least 3 runs. It hasn't been done since 1934:
Name | Yr1 | W | L | ERA | Yr2 | W | L | ERA |
Billy Taylor | 1883 | 4 | 7 | 5.39 | 1884 | 43 | 16 | 2.10 |
George Haddock | 1890 | 9 | 26 | 5.76 | 1891 | 34 | 11 | 2.49 |
Lefty Grove | 1934 | 8 | 8 | 6.50 | 1935 | 20 | 12 | 2.70 |
Given that 1.02 ERA is pretty much out of the question, how many pitchers have gone from .500 or worse to twenty wins while lowering their ERA by 2.50 runs? They have been a couple in recent history:
Name | Yr1 | W | L | ERA | Yr2 | W | L | ERA |
Esteban Loaiza | 2002 | 9 | 10 | 5.71 | 2003 | 21 | 9 | 2.90 |
Darryl Kile | 1999 | 8 | 13 | 6.61 | 2000 | 20 | 9 | 3.91 |
Dave McNally | 1967 | 7 | 7 | 4.54 | 1968 | 22 | 10 | 1.95 |
Dick Ellsworth | 1962 | 9 | 20 | 5.09 | 1963 | 22 | 10 | 2.11 |
Roger Wolff | 1944 | 4 | 15 | 4.99 | 1945 | 20 | 10 | 2.12 |
Lefty Grove | 1934 | 8 | 8 | 6.50 | 1935 | 20 | 12 | 2.70 |
George Haddock | 1890 | 9 | 26 | 5.76 | 1891 | 34 | 11 | 2.49 |
John Healy | 1889 | 2 | 15 | 5.69 | 1890 | 22 | 21 | 2.89 |
Kid Gleason | 1889 | 9 | 15 | 5.58 | 1890 | 38 | 17 | 2.63 |
Billy Taylor | 1883 | 4 | 7 | 5.39 | 1884 | 43 | 16 | 2.10 |
Now, let's look at the even nuttier side to Willis's season. He has won every game that he's pitched: 7-0 in seven starts. The most games a pitcher has won in a season in which he won every game in which pitched was six. So don't be disappointed if he does not go 33-0:
Name | Yr | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA |
Earl Hamilton | 1918 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 54.0 | 0.83 |
Max Lanier | 1946 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 56.0 | 1.93 |
Jim Abbott | 1998 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 31.7 | 4.55 |
Jack Taylor | 1898 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 41.0 | 2.20 |
Ed Cushman | 1884 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 36.0 | 1.00 |
Billy Campbell | 1907 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21.0 | 2.14 |
Ed Walsh | 1915 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 27.0 | 1.33 |
Monty Montgomery | 1971 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21.3 | 2.11 |
George Merritt | 1901 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 24.0 | 4.88 |
Warren McLaughlin | 1902 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26.0 | 2.77 |
So let's say that he instead goes just 30-0. What are the most wins ever recorded by a pitcher in a season without a loss? Survey says 12:
Name | Yr | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA |
Tom Zachary | 1929 | 12 | 0 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 119.7 | 2.48 |
Dennis Lamp | 1985 | 11 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105.7 | 3.32 |
Howie Krist | 1941 | 10 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 114.0 | 4.03 |
Frank DiPino | 1989 | 9 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88.3 | 2.45 |
Joe Pate | 1926 | 9 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 113.0 | 2.71 |
Ken Holtzman | 1967 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 92.7 | 2.53 |
Arthur Rhodes | 2001 | 8 | 0 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 68.0 | 1.72 |
Grant Jackson | 1973 | 8 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80.3 | 1.90 |
Kirk Rueter | 1993 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 85.7 | 2.73 |
Pat Mahomes | 1999 | 8 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63.7 | 3.68 |
Rheal Cormier | 2003 | 8 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84.7 | 1.70 |
Ted Wilks | 1946 | 8 | 0 | 40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 95.0 | 3.41 |
Duster Mails | 1920 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 63.3 | 1.85 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | 1975 | 7 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 87.7 | 3.49 |
Mike Wallace | 1974 | 7 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 60.7 | 2.82 |
Pascual Perez | 1987 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 70.3 | 2.30 |
Pete Smith | 1992 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 79.0 | 2.05 |
Roy Thomas | 1985 | 7 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.7 | 3.36 |
Tim Burke | 1987 | 7 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91.0 | 1.19 |
Tom Burgmeier | 1982 | 7 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102.3 | 2.29 |
Tom Filer | 1985 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 48.7 | 3.88 |
Wes Stock | 1963 | 7 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75.3 | 3.94 |
Next, Willis is on a pace to record 14 complete games, something that has not been done in seven years and that's been just once in 14 years. Here are the only guys to do it in the last twenty years:
Name | Yr | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA |
Curt Schilling | 1998 | 15 | 14 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 2 | 268.7 | 3.25 |
Jack McDowell | 1991 | 17 | 10 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 3 | 253.7 | 3.41 |
Danny Jackson | 1988 | 23 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 260.7 | 2.73 |
Dave Stewart | 1988 | 21 | 12 | 37 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 275.7 | 3.23 |
Orel Hershiser | 1988 | 23 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 15 | 8 | 267.0 | 2.26 |
Roger Clemens | 1988 | 18 | 12 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 8 | 264.0 | 2.93 |
Bret Saberhagen | 1987 | 18 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 257.0 | 3.36 |
Bruce Hurst | 1987 | 15 | 13 | 33 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 238.7 | 4.41 |
Mark Langston | 1987 | 19 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 3 | 272.0 | 3.84 |
Roger Clemens | 1987 | 20 | 9 | 36 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 281.7 | 2.97 |
Teddy Higuera | 1987 | 18 | 10 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 3 | 261.7 | 3.85 |
Bert Blyleven | 1986 | 17 | 14 | 36 | 36 | 16 | 3 | 271.7 | 4.01 |
Fernando Valenzuela | 1986 | 21 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 269.3 | 3.14 |
Jack Morris | 1986 | 21 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 267.0 | 3.27 |
Mike Witt | 1986 | 18 | 10 | 34 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 269.0 | 2.84 |
Teddy Higuera | 1986 | 20 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 248.3 | 2.79 |
Tom Candiotti | 1986 | 16 | 12 | 36 | 34 | 17 | 3 | 252.3 | 3.57 |
Bert Blyleven | 1985 | 17 | 16 | 37 | 37 | 24 | 5 | 293.7 | 3.16 |
Charlie Hough | 1985 | 14 | 16 | 34 | 34 | 14 | 1 | 250.3 | 3.31 |
Dwight Gooden | 1985 | 24 | 4 | 35 | 35 | 16 | 8 | 276.7 | 1.53 |
Fernando Valenzuela | 1985 | 17 | 10 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 272.3 | 2.45 |
John Tudor | 1985 | 21 | 8 | 36 | 36 | 14 | 10 | 275.0 | 1.93 |
Mike Moore | 1985 | 17 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 247.0 | 3.46 |
Finally, Willis is on course to record ten shutouts. Only 29 men have done that before and no one has done it in 19 years. Here they are:
Name | Yr | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA |
John Tudor | 1985 | 21 | 8 | 36 | 36 | 14 | 10 | 275.0 | 1.93 |
Jim Palmer | 1975 | 23 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 25 | 10 | 323.0 | 2.09 |
Bob Gibson | 1968 | 22 | 9 | 34 | 34 | 28 | 13 | 304.7 | 1.12 |
Juan Marichal | 1965 | 22 | 13 | 39 | 37 | 24 | 10 | 295.3 | 2.13 |
Dean Chance | 1964 | 20 | 9 | 46 | 35 | 15 | 11 | 278.3 | 1.65 |
Sandy Koufax | 1963 | 25 | 5 | 40 | 40 | 20 | 11 | 311.0 | 1.88 |
Bob Lemon | 1948 | 20 | 14 | 43 | 37 | 20 | 10 | 293.7 | 2.82 |
Bob Feller | 1946 | 26 | 15 | 48 | 42 | 36 | 10 | 371.3 | 2.18 |
Mort Cooper | 1942 | 22 | 7 | 37 | 35 | 22 | 10 | 278.7 | 1.78 |
Carl Hubbell | 1933 | 23 | 12 | 45 | 33 | 22 | 10 | 308.7 | 1.66 |
Pete Alexander | 1916 | 33 | 12 | 48 | 45 | 38 | 16 | 389.0 | 1.55 |
Dave Davenport | 1915 | 22 | 18 | 55 | 46 | 30 | 10 | 392.7 | 2.20 |
Pete Alexander | 1915 | 31 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 36 | 12 | 376.3 | 1.22 |
Walter Johnson | 1913 | 36 | 7 | 48 | 36 | 29 | 11 | 346.0 | 1.14 |
Joe Wood | 1912 | 34 | 5 | 43 | 38 | 35 | 10 | 344.0 | 1.91 |
Jack Coombs | 1910 | 31 | 9 | 45 | 38 | 35 | 13 | 353.0 | 1.30 |
Christy Mathewson | 1908 | 37 | 11 | 56 | 44 | 34 | 11 | 390.7 | 1.43 |
Ed Walsh | 1908 | 40 | 15 | 66 | 49 | 42 | 11 | 464.0 | 1.42 |
Ed Walsh | 1906 | 17 | 13 | 41 | 31 | 24 | 10 | 278.3 | 1.88 |
Cy Young | 1904 | 26 | 16 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 10 | 380.0 | 1.97 |
Dave Foutz | 1886 | 41 | 16 | 59 | 57 | 55 | 11 | 504.0 | 2.11 |
Ed Morris | 1886 | 41 | 20 | 64 | 63 | 63 | 12 | 555.3 | 2.45 |
John Clarkson | 1885 | 53 | 16 | 70 | 70 | 68 | 10 | 623.0 | 1.85 |
Charley Radbourn | 1884 | 59 | 12 | 75 | 73 | 73 | 11 | 678.7 | 1.38 |
Jim McCormick | 1884 | 40 | 25 | 66 | 65 | 63 | 10 | 569.0 | 2.37 |
Pud Galvin | 1884 | 46 | 22 | 72 | 72 | 71 | 12 | 636.3 | 1.99 |
Tommy Bond | 1879 | 43 | 19 | 64 | 64 | 59 | 11 | 555.3 | 1.96 |
George Bradley | 1876 | 45 | 19 | 64 | 64 | 63 | 16 | 573.0 | 1.23 |
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