Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Twins reliever Juan Rincon tested positive for steroid use, and while I don't want to caste aspersions on his career, I think that upon reviewing his stats, one has to wonder if steroids were an integral part of his renaissance last season.
Take a look at his career record, and a few things leap out at you. First, he was a pitcher whose strikeouts per nine innings were consistently in the mid-6.00's to mid-7.00's throughout his seven-year minor-league career and in his first few major-league seasons. Then in 2004, he hit almost 12 strikeouts per nine innings and remained close to that this year. He also recorded his first strikeouts to walks ratios over three in his professional career. His Walks plus Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP) was significantly lower than his minor-league numbers.
Year | Team | Lg | Age | Lvl | ERA | IP | K per 9 IP | K: BB | WHIP |
1997 | GCL Twins | GCL | 18 | Rk | 2.95 | 58 | 7.14 | 1.92 | 1.36 |
1997 | Elizabethton | App | 18 | Rk | 3.86 | 9.1 | 6.75 | 2.33 | 1.5 |
1998 | Fort Wayne | Midw | 19 | A | 3.83 | 96.1 | 6.91 | 1.37 | 1.43 |
1999 | Quad City | Midw | 20 | A | 2.92 | 163 | 8.43 | 2.32 | 1.3 |
2000 | Fort Myers | FSL | 21 | A | 2.13 | 76 | 6.51 | 2.39 | 1.18 |
2000 | New Britain | East | 21 | AA | 4.65 | 89 | 7.99 | 2.03 | 1.52 |
2001 | New Britain | East | 22 | AA | 2.88 | 153 | 7.81 | 2.33 | 1.22 |
2001 | Minnesota | AL | 22 | MLB | 6.35 | 5.2 | 6.35 | 0.8 | 2.25 |
2002 | Edmonton | PCL | 23 | AAA | 4.78 | 101 | 6.64 | 2.14 | 1.44 |
2002 | Minnesota | AL | 23 | MLB | 6.28 | 28.2 | 6.59 | 2.33 | 1.85 |
2003 | Rochester | IL | 24 | AAA | 7.56 | 8.1 | 8.64 | 1.6 | 2.04 |
2003 | Minnesota | AL | 24 | MLB | 3.68 | 85.2 | 6.62 | 1.66 | 1.31 |
2004 | Minnesota | AL | 25 | MLB | 2.63 | 82 | 11.63 | 3.31 | 1.02 |
2005 | Minnesota | AL | 26 | MLB | 2.25 | 12 | 11.25 | 3 | 1.17 |
7 yrs | Minors | 3.47 | 755 | 7.51 | 2.06 | 1.35 | |||
5 yrs | Majors | 3.62 | 214 | 8.69 | 2.35 | 1.29 |
But maybe Rincon was just maturing and steroid use had nothing to do with it. How many times has a pitcher had a one-year turnaround in K per 9IP like Rincon had last year? Let's see (min. 50 innings each year):
Name | Yr1 | Kper9IP | Yr2 | Kper9IP2 | Ratio |
Ron Davis | 1980 | 4.47 | 1981 | 10.23 | 2.29 |
Sandy Koufax | 1956 | 4.60 | 1957 | 10.52 | 2.29 |
Jeff Russell | 1988 | 4.20 | 1989 | 9.54 | 2.27 |
Dave LaRoche | 1974 | 4.79 | 1975 | 10.28 | 2.14 |
John D'Acquisto | 1976 | 4.50 | 1977 | 9.29 | 2.06 |
Bobby Ayala | 1993 | 5.97 | 1994 | 12.07 | 2.02 |
Rich Gossage | 1976 | 5.42 | 1977 | 10.22 | 1.88 |
Bill Caudill | 1981 | 5.70 | 1982 | 10.44 | 1.83 |
Tom Hall | 1969 | 5.89 | 1970 | 10.66 | 1.81 |
Mark Langston | 1985 | 5.12 | 1986 | 9.21 | 1.80 |
Mike Scott | 1985 | 5.56 | 1986 | 10.00 | 1.80 |
Jeff Nelson | 1992 | 5.11 | 1993 | 9.15 | 1.79 |
Brandon Duckworth | 2001 | 5.22 | 2002 | 9.22 | 1.77 |
Juan Rincon | 2003 | 6.62 | 2004 | 11.63 | 1.76 |
Jose Mesa | 1999 | 5.50 | 2000 | 9.37 | 1.70 |
Brian Williams | 1994 | 5.63 | 1995 | 9.38 | 1.67 |
Jay Witasick | 2000 | 7.26 | 2001 | 12.08 | 1.66 |
Scott Garrelts | 1986 | 6.48 | 1987 | 10.75 | 1.66 |
Norm Charlton | 1988 | 5.72 | 1989 | 9.25 | 1.62 |
Eric Gagne | 2001 | 7.71 | 2002 | 12.46 | 1.62 |
Mark Davis | 1984 | 6.39 | 1985 | 10.31 | 1.61 |
Bryan Harvey | 1988 | 7.93 | 1989 | 12.76 | 1.61 |
Mariano Rivera | 1995 | 6.85 | 1996 | 10.87 | 1.59 |
Mark Davis | 1992 | 5.77 | 1993 | 9.04 | 1.57 |
Ben Sheets | 2003 | 6.40 | 2004 | 10.03 | 1.57 |
OK, there are a lot of young pitchers who were just maturing in their big turnaround year. Rincon's up there, but it's not as if he's out of place, right?
Well, Rincon had already pitched a hundred innings in his major-league career before 2004. How many pitchers who have pitched a hundred innings can all of a sudden increase their strikeouts from well under one per inning to well over one per inning?
Let's see There are 36:
Name | Yr | K per 9 IP | K per 9 IP after | %Improved |
Kyle Farnsworth | 2000 | 4.85 | 10.25 | 2.11 |
Jim Duckworth | 1964 | 4.92 | 9.47 | 1.92 |
Joe Nathan | 2002 | 5.64 | 10.10 | 1.79 |
Juan Rincon | 2004 | 6.60 | 11.63 | 1.76 |
Sandy Koufax | 1957 | 5.38 | 9.45 | 1.76 |
Bob Meyer | 1970 | 5.84 | 9.82 | 1.68 |
Mike Remlinger | 1997 | 5.68 | 9.37 | 1.65 |
Johan Santana | 2002 | 6.39 | 10.39 | 1.63 |
Tom Hall | 1970 | 5.81 | 9.06 | 1.56 |
Randy Johnson | 1990 | 7.47 | 11.33 | 1.52 |
Eric Gagne | 2001 | 7.47 | 11.17 | 1.50 |
Jeff Nelson | 1994 | 6.83 | 10.22 | 1.50 |
Mark Wohlers | 1994 | 6.55 | 9.63 | 1.47 |
Johnny Ruffin | 1995 | 6.19 | 9.07 | 1.47 |
Scot Shields | 2004 | 6.39 | 9.31 | 1.46 |
Bobby Ayala | 1994 | 6.24 | 9.08 | 1.46 |
Francisco Cordero | 2003 | 6.88 | 9.86 | 1.43 |
Duane Ward | 1989 | 7.00 | 9.75 | 1.39 |
Ugueth Urbina | 1997 | 8.06 | 11.13 | 1.38 |
Gary Kroll | 1966 | 7.09 | 9.44 | 1.33 |
Robb Nen | 1995 | 7.82 | 10.39 | 1.33 |
Arthur Rhodes | 1993 | 6.91 | 9.12 | 1.32 |
Britt Reames | 2002 | 7.76 | 10.00 | 1.29 |
Lee Smith | 1983 | 7.28 | 9.01 | 1.24 |
Jake Peavy | 2004 | 7.57 | 9.36 | 1.24 |
Juan Cruz | 2003 | 7.61 | 9.14 | 1.20 |
Tom Henke | 1986 | 8.37 | 10.02 | 1.20 |
Jorge Julio | 2004 | 7.69 | 9.13 | 1.19 |
Paul Shuey | 1998 | 8.56 | 9.82 | 1.15 |
John Wetteland | 1990 | 8.42 | 9.62 | 1.14 |
Scott Sauerbeck | 2001 | 8.67 | 9.84 | 1.14 |
Tom Davey | 2002 | 7.94 | 9.00 | 1.13 |
Mark Clear | 1980 | 8.09 | 9.14 | 1.13 |
Jeff Zimmerman | 2001 | 8.07 | 9.08 | 1.13 |
Scott Service | 1997 | 8.77 | 9.01 | 1.03 |
Paul Spoljaric | 1998 | 8.92 | 9.09 | 1.02 |
There's Rincon in fourth place, right ahead of Sandy Koufax. That seems pretty rare to me.
It seems all this time the media has been keying on the one-year, Brady Anderson-like increases in home run totals as the main affects of steroid use. Congress seemed ready to break out asterisks for every home run hit after Jim Bunning retired. However, given Rincon's suspension and Tom House's recent admission, one has to wonder if the should have been scouring the strikeout, not the home run, totalsexcept Alex Sanchez's.
From just glancing at your 100 inning k increases, many of them, at an early point in their careers, were starters. Just a quick glance at a Hall of Fame example of a starter being converted to a closer/reliever shows a marked increase: 1986 - 6.13 then 1987 - 8.79 [% improved - 1.43].
Maybe Rincon doesn't necessarily fall into this category because he was a starter in the minor leagues, and only started 3 games in the majors, but it would seem to me to be at least somewhat relevant, that a starter when being converted to a reliever (seems) to majorly increase his k/9.
i don't know much about steroids or the MLB drug policy, but is it conclusive that rincon tested positive for steroid use? might there be some other chemical that triggered the positive test? all the news releases don't get more specific than "performance-enhancing drug". and again, repeating that i know next to nothing about the effects of steroid use or pitching for that matter, but it seems to me especially risky for pitchers to take steroids, because isn't pitching less about muscle mass than about ligament and joint strength and the ability to rotate one's arm very quickly? considering that steroid use has a reputation for increasing susceptibility to injury, and that pitchers are quite susceptible anyway, the possible benefit to pitchers seems hardly worth the risk, at least so it seems in my thought exercise.
You are right Vishal, we don't know what Rincon took, it isn't completely fair to tar him with a steroids brush unless we know what he took.
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