On September 16, the Mets were forced to announce that they were firing manager Art Howe effective at the end of the season after the decision was leaked to the press, perhaps as a trial balloon in the court of public opinion. The Mets finished with a 71-91 record in fourth place in a rather mediocre NL East.

This came after a promising start for the Metsgoes. On July 7, they beat the division-leading Phils 10-1 to climb to within one game of the lead with one game left in the series. They lost the next game, 5-4, and within two weeks had fallen below .500 to stay.

So will the real New York Mets team please stand up? Is it the one left reeling in the shadows of the crosstown Yankees at the end of the season? Or is it the one that seemed so promising earlier in the season with David Wright still waiting in the wings? Is seems that owner Fred Wilpon thinks it is the latter but he is doing everything he can to spackle over the more egregious holes before the start of next season.

At the end of the season, the Mets hired former Expo GM Omar Minaya, who in turn hired former Yankee coach Willie Randolph as manager a month later. After declining arbitration to a slew of older players, the Mets signed free agent Pedro Martinez in the middle of December. Then they managed even to top the Yankees acquisition of Randy Johnson by swiping budding superstar Carlos Beltran for 7 years, $119 M. Their next target appears to be Blue Jay free agent first baseman Carlos Delgado.

So after potentially three major free agent signings, the Mets have to be top contenders in the NL East, right? After all they have promising young players on the left side of the infield in David Wright and Jose Reyes, arguably the best offensive catcher of all time in Mike Piazza, former Japanese player Kaz Matsui hopefully growing into his new role at second base in his second season in the majors, and a deep, rebuilt pitching staff.

Would a team coming back from a sub-.450 winning percentage or a fourth-place or worse finish in one season to make the playoffs in the next be that rare an event? Well, it's been done 83 times in baseball history. Here are the occurrences over the last 15 years:

If you want to look at a team, like the 2004 Mets, that did both, finished with a sub-.450 record, no higher than fourth, then there are just 17 teams in baseball history, though almost half are from the past 15 seasons:

So have the Mets done what's necessary to join this list? Can they make the playoffs in 2005? It helps that the NL East is a highly mediocre division. Assuming it will take at least 92 wins to nab the division title and/or a wild card spot, have the Mets improved by 21 games with the personnel that they have added? Will Delgado by the final piece to a Mets come back?

Here's a breakdown of the putative 2005 team assuming that they sign Delgado. Listed are the players' 2004 Win Shares for the Mets only, along with a projection for 2005. For most the projection is based on their 2004 WS total projected out to 162-game schedule depending on their expected playing time. This does not take into account improvements for younger players or declines for older ones, nor does it figure in injuries to key players. It just projects the team's 2005 Win Shares based on 2004 totals:

Notes: Delgado's projection based on 2004 WS plus 10% more playing time.
Wright's based on double the playing time.
Floyd's based on 25% more.
Reyes based on 1.5 times more.
Zambrano's based on entire 2004 WS total plus 10% more playing time.
Benson's based on entire 2004 WS.
Galarraga's based on 2003 WS project to 75% of playing time.
Cairo's based on 50% less playing time.
Ginter's and DeJean's based on there times the appearances, and Moreno's twice the appearances.
Valent's and Phillip's based on 75% of the playing time.
Strickland's based on 2003 WS.
Calloway's based on an average of 2003 and 2004.
Cameron's fielding Win Shares were adjusted to the average right fielder (two less).

Adding up all the Win Shares projects to 87 wins for the 2005 Mets. Of course, this is anything but scientific, but it does tell us a couple of things. First, the Mets are vastly improved on paper (surprise!) but are far from division favorites (also surprise!). They do appear to be likely contenders. However, without some improvements over 2004 by a number of key players, they still seem to be short of a division crown.

If youngsters like Wright and Reyes fulfill their potential tags and veterans (Piazza, Delgado, Cameron, Matsui, Floyd) play like they have in years past, the Mets could very easily garner a division crown. However, if either of their top two starters, Martinez and Glavine, both of whom are aging and/or fragile, falter, and their rebuilt pen does not gel, it could be a disappointing season at Shea.

Either way, they'll probably beat the seemingly non-existent Phils this year.