Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Well, now we know that the 2005 writers' class will consist of Boggs and Sandberg, but there were a number of interesting developments in the voting. First, here's a quick review of the players on this year's ballot, their voting results for the last four elections, my prediction for each for this election, and the actual result:
Name | First Year | Yrs Elig Left | Win Shares | 2002 HOF% | 2003 HoF% | 2004 HoF% | 2005 HoF% | High | Verdict | Result |
Jim Abbott | 2005 | NA | 86 | 2.52% | 2.52% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Bert Blyleven | 1999 | 8 | 339 | 26.27 | 29.23 | 35.38% | 40.89% | 40.89% | Veterans' Committee unless gathers steam | Remains on ballot |
Wade Boggs | 2005 | NA | 394 | 91.86% | 91.86% | 2005 inductee | 2005 inductee | |||
Tom Candiotti | 2005 | NA | 158 | 0.39% | 0.39% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Dave Concepcion | 1994 | 3 | 269 | 11.86 | 10.28 | 11.26% | 10.66% | 16.91% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot |
Chili Davis | 2005 | NA | 285 | 0.58% | 0.58% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Andre Dawson | 2002 | 11 | 340 | 45.34 | 50.00 | 50.00% | 52.33% | 52.33% | Not in 2005, maybe within 5 years | Remains on ballot |
Steve Garvey | 1993 | 2 | 279 | 28.39 | 27.82 | 24.31% | 20.54% | 42.61% | Veterans' Committee | Veterans' Committee |
Rich Gossage | 2000 | 9 | 223 | 43.01 | 42.14 | 40.71% | 55.23% | 55.23% | Not in 2004, maybe someday but treading water | Remains on ballot |
Tommy John | 1995 | 4 | 289 | 26.91 | 23.39 | 21.94% | 23.84% | 28.35% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot |
Mark Langston | 2005 | NA | 184 | 0.00% | 0.00% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Don Mattingly | 2001 | 10 | 263 | 20.34 | 13.71 | 12.85% | 11.43% | 28.16% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot |
Jack McDowell | 2005 | NA | 122 | 0.78% | 0.78% | 0.78% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | ||
Willie McGee | 2005 | 14 | 224 | 5.04% | 5.04% | Dropped by BBWAA | Remains on ballot | |||
Jeff Montgomery | 2005 | NA | 134 | 0.39% | 0.39% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Jack Morris | 2000 | 9 | 225 | 20.55 | 22.78 | 26.28% | 33.33% | 33.33% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot |
Dale Murphy | 1999 | 8 | 294 | 14.83 | 11.69 | 8.50% | 10.47% | 23.25% | Veterans' Committee; Dropped by BBWAA in 2005 | Remains on ballot |
Otis Nixon | 2005 | NA | 127 | 0.00% | 0.00% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Dave Parker | 1997 | 6 | 327 | 13.98 | 10.28 | 10.47% | 12.60% | 24.52% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot |
Tony Phillips | 2005 | NA | 268 | 0.19% | 0.19% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Jim Rice | 1995 | 4 | 282 | 55.08 | 52.22 | 54.55% | 59.50% | 59.50% | Not in 2005, maybe someday but treading water | Remains on ballot |
Ryne Sandberg | 2003 | NA | 346 | 49.20 | 61.07% | 76.16% | 76.16% | 2005 inductee | 2005 inductee | |
Lee Smith | 2003 | 12 | 198 | 42.34 | 36.56% | 38.76% | 42.34% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot | |
Terry Steinbach | 2005 | NA | 173 | 0.19% | 0.19% | Dropped by BBWAA | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Darryl Strawberry | 2005 | NA | 252 | 1.16% | 1.16% | Will remain on ballot at least one more year | Dropped by BBWAA | |||
Bruce Sutter | 1994 | 3 | 168 | 50.42 | 53.63 | 59.49% | 66.67% | 66.67% | 2005 or '06 inductee | Remains on ballot |
Alan Trammell | 2002 | 11 | 318 | 15.68 | 14.11 | 13.83% | 16.86% | 16.86% | Veterans' Committee | Remains on ballot |
You'll notice that a number of candidates, including Sandberg, reached a personal high in voting percentage this year. Besides the two that reached the magic threshold (75%), four reached the seemingly all-important 50% mark. Of the players no longer on the baseball writers' ballot, only Gil Hodges, whose high was 63.37%, has ever reached 50% without being eventually elected by some Hall body (and he may gain admittance in March when the Vets' vote is announced).
With two-thirds of the vote, Bruce Sutter looks like a good candidate for 2006, but has just three shots left. Rice, Gossage, and Dawson, the other three over 50%, all set personal highs this year. So did Bert Blyleven, whose Hall chances seem to be gaining momentum steadily each year.
Of the other nine players in Hall purgatory, those players that seem stuck on the ballot (Smith, Morris, John, Garvey, Trammell, Parker, Mattingly, Concepcion, and Murphy), only two set personal highs (Trammell and Morris). None seem like good bets for the foreseeable future.
Of the twelve new candidates, Boggs got the required votes, McGee got barely enough votes to remain on the ballot, and the rest went the way of the dodo. I had picked Strawberry as the one other candidate who would stick around at least for a year, but it ended up being McGee. I guess they let the off-field performance outweigh the on-field.
Overall, the short ballot helped a number of the more borderline candidates get extra support but didn't seem to do much for the tailenders. We'll have to wait a year to see if the players will retain and possibly build on the newfound support.
One note: I'm in vacation in Boca Raton. To quote Ferris Beuller, if you have the means I highly recommend it (where else can you see a well-manicured hedge one mile long that probably costs more than the average American family's income each year to maintain). First, I have to report that their burgers are nothing like you find in the store—they'll full of meat. Second, I visited the Sports Immortals museum/memorabilia store. It was an interesting place—the Honus Wagner card, Ray Chapman ball, dirt from Joe Jackson's first field, and keystones and seats from a number of olde tyme stadia. I want to post some photos along with more comments but am ensure whether I will be able to effect this with the various and sundry cocoanut shells et al that I have with me on vacation.
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