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Hitless Wonders, Mach 2
2005-04-23 23:45
by Mike Carminati

The White Sox are ran their record to 14-4, by beating the Royals today, 4-3 in ten innings. Oddly, the Sox were a team that many had written off (including me) after their young pitching prospects failed to develop, for the most part, and they picked up a couple of ex-Yankees (Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras).

They also entered the season with the putative best offensive player Frank Thomas on the DL and Magglio Ordonez left in the offseason as a free agent. If anyone was told that they would have just a .707 team OPS through 18 games and that only two regulars have OPS's over .775, they would shrug and say that this fit their expectations. However, they would also think that the Sox would be more likely to be 4-14 than 14-4. This was a team with a 4.91 team ERA last year, for goodness sake!

The Sox have a rotation with a 2.89 ERA and a staff with a 3.20 ERA. The Sox have not had a team ERA that low since 1972. In their history, in almost third of their seasons (29) they had an ERA lower than 3.20. However, only ten of those 29 seasons have come since World War II. Here are the lowest:

Yr ERA W LPCTPos
1905 1.99 92 60.6052
1910 2.03 68 85.4446
1909 2.05 78 74.5134
1906 2.13 93 58.6161
1917 2.16 100 54.6491
1907 2.22 87 64.5763
1908 2.22 88 64.5793
1904 2.30 89 65.5783
1913 2.33 78 74.5135
1916 2.36 89 65.5782
1915 2.43 93 61.6043
1967 2.45 89 73.5494

Now look at their last ten years:

Yr ERA W LPCTPos
2004 4.91 83 79.5122
2003 4.17 86 76.5312
2002 4.53 81 81.5002
2001 4.55 83 79.5123
2000 4.66 95 67.5861
1999 4.92 75 86.4662
1998 5.24 80 82.4942
1997 4.74 80 81.4972
1996 4.53 85 77.5252
1995 4.85 68 76.4723

So could this sudden turnaround be for real? One really has to wonder when their closer, Shingo Takatsu, has a 9.64 ERA and Dustin Hermanson and Cliff Politte are picking up the slack. A 1.70 one-year turnaround in ERA is pretty rare. There are only 13 teams in major-league history to have done it, and all but the '97 Tigers were from before World War II. Here are the best one-year improvements in staff ERA:

TmYrERAWLPosPrev YrERAWLPosDiff
Pittsburgh Pirates18912.895580818905.97231138-3.08
Troy Haymakers18723.081510518715.5113156-2.43
Cincinnati Reds18781.843723218774.1915426-2.35
Louisville Colonels18902.578844118894.81271118-2.24
Philadelphia Athletics18882.418152318874.5964695-2.18
Brooklyn Bridegrooms18882.338852218874.4760746-2.14
Philadelphia Phillies19314.586688619306.71521028-2.13
Philadelphia Athletics18723.013014218714.952171-1.94
Hartford Dark Blues18751.615428318743.5416377-1.93
St. Louis Cardinals19142.388172319134.2351998-1.85
Detroit Tigers19974.567983319966.38531095-1.82
Boston Beaneaters18882.617064418874.4161605-1.80
Chicago Orphans18982.838565418974.5359739-1.70
St. Louis Browns18984.53391111218976.212910212-1.69
St. Louis Browns18882.099243118873.7795401-1.68
New York Giants18881.968447118873.5768554-1.61
Pittsburgh Pirates19313.667579519305.2480745-1.58
Boston Red Stockings18721.99398118713.5520103-1.57
Pittsburgh Pirates18954.057161718945.6065657-1.55
Philadelphia Quakers18852.395654318843.9339736-1.54
Cincinnati Reds19022.677070419014.1752878-1.50
Chicago Cubs19633.088280719624.54591039-1.46
Pittsburgh Alleghenys18882.676668618874.1255696-1.45
Detroit Tigers19543.816886519535.2560946-1.44
Pittsburgh Alleghenys18852.925655318844.35307811-1.43
You will note, however, that teams that improved their ERA by 1.70 or more improved on average by almost two hundred points in winning percentage (from .361 to .551). The White Sox had a .512 winning percentage in 2004. Right now, it's .778. You do the math.

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