Even though the relocated Washington Nationals lost to the Braves tonight, 2-1, after giving up two runs on a Cristian Guzman error in the ninth, they remain in first place in the NL East, tied with the Florida Marlins at 9-7. Neither team has ever won the division in any full season.

The Nats are trying to complete the dual task of going from last to first while switching homes from Montreal to DC in the process. One has to wonder if shuffling off the baggage with which they'd been laden north of the border, not to mention their alter ego as the San Juan Expos, is enough to buoy this team into a pennant race. Or maybe it was losing Omar Minaya, who seemed more concerned with pleasing his former employers, the other owners, than in constructing a viable team in Montreal.

The Nats/Expos were 67-95 for a .414 winning percentage last year. They trailed the Braves by 29 games. Very few people picked them better than fourth this year in the East.

Is this just an early season fluke or can the Nats really contend? How have past relocated teams fared?

Well, here are all the teams that switched cities in the past with their record in the final year as the old team and in the first year as the new team:

The average relocated team improved their winning percentage by 47 points. For the Nats, if that holds true, it would mean a .461 winning percentage this year, or about a 75-87 record. That seems about right, or at least it did before the season.

Their current winning percentage (.563) is almost a 150 point improvement over 2004. Three teams did record an improvement at least that good. They are the Milwaukee/St. Louis Browns, Baltimore Orioles/NY Highlanders (cum Yankees), and Boston/Milwaukee Braves. When one considers that a .563 winning percentage will probably not be enough to win the division and may not be enough to secure a wild card spot and that even maintaining such a high winning percentage after a poor season last year, one has to question if they can even pull off becoming a real contender for the better part of the season.

Consider that in the expansion era only 22 clubs have had an improvement at least as good as the Expos have witnessed yet far this year over the course of a full season. That doesn't bode well. Here are those clubs:

Does any of this have any direct affect on the Nats' season this year? Absolutely not. However, if they do contend, it would be quite a story. It would also be a great way to launch a team in DC.