Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Yankees acquired a big-name, surefire Hall of Famer in the offseason. They picked up the ace from a former World Series winner. And yet through 12 games were just 4-8, and to add insult to injury, they gave up eight runs to a division rival to lose their eighth.
It sounds pretty dire, but of course, that team went on to win the first of two consecutive World Series.
If you thought I'm talking about the 2005 incantation of the Yankees, you'd be wrong.
The big name was Reggie, as in Jackson, if you're nasty. The ace was Don Gullet, late from Big Red Machine, not Randy Johnson. And the year was 1977.
My point is that even though George Steinbrenner is up in arms, there's no reason to think that the Yankees can't pull out of their tailspin. There have been ten teams in baseball history who have made the playoffs after starting 4-8, plus two of the "division winners" in the strike-curtailed 1994 season.
Of course, that is out of 223 teams who started off at 4-8, so winning just four of your first 12 games is not all cream soda and Reggie bars, but it doesn't have to be the end of the world either. The average such team ends up 70- 85 with a .452 winning percentage and a fifth-place finish, however.
By the way, here are the teams that pulled out of this early-season nosedive:
Tm | Yr | W | L | WP | RS | RA | Tot W | Tot L | Pct | Pos | Postseason? |
MON | 1994 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 48 | 60 | 74 | 40 | .649 | 1 | |
BAL | 1979 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 47 | 63 | 102 | 57 | .642 | 1 | AL Pennant |
ATL | 2003 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 51 | 86 | 101 | 61 | .623 | 1 | Division Champ |
PIT | 1925 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 53 | 72 | 95 | 58 | .621 | 1 | WS Champ |
NYY | 1977 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 41 | 50 | 100 | 62 | .617 | 1 | WS Champ |
ANA | 2002 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 38 | 60 | 99 | 63 | .611 | 2 | WS Champ |
PIT | 1979 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 49 | 67 | 98 | 64 | .605 | 1 | WS Champ |
CIN | 1995 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 65 | 70 | 85 | 59 | .590 | 1 | Division Champ |
OAK | 1973 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 54 | 68 | 94 | 68 | .580 | 1 | WS Champ |
ARI | 2001 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 65 | 78 | 92 | 70 | .568 | 1 | WS Champ |
OAK | 2000 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 62 | 70 | 91 | 70 | .565 | 1 | Division Champ |
LAD | 1994 | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 54 | 48 | 58 | 56 | .509 | 1 |
Oddly enough, the team that the Yankees faced that year in the Series was the Dodgers and they made the playoffs after starting off 9-2. Guess where the Dodgers are this year?
So for all the Dodger fans, keep in mind that 37 of 65 teams that started the season at 9-2 made the playoffs (since 1901). The average such team was 90-64 with a .583 in second place. That translates into 95 wins in 162-game schedule. If the Dodgers do end up 95-67, who thinks that they will fail to make the playoffs this year?
Here are the other 9-2 starters by winning percentage:
Tm | Yr | W | L | WP | RS | RA | Tot W | Tot L | Pct | Pos | Postseason? |
PIT | 1902 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 75 | 31 | 103 | 36 | .741 | 1 | NL Pennant |
CHC | 1907 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 42 | 31 | 107 | 45 | .704 | 1 | WS Champ |
CIN | 1919 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 59 | 28 | 96 | 44 | .686 | 1 | WS Champ |
STL | 1944 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 49 | 30 | 105 | 49 | .682 | 1 | WS Champ |
NYY | 1953 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 43 | 25 | 99 | 52 | .656 | 1 | WS Champ |
DET | 1915 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 60 | 39 | 100 | 54 | .649 | 2 | |
CHW | 1917 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 48 | 20 | 100 | 54 | .649 | 1 | WS Champ |
OAK | 1990 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 59 | 38 | 103 | 59 | .636 | 1 | AL Pennant |
DET | 1968 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 47 | 27 | 103 | 59 | .636 | 1 | WS Champ |
NYY | 1949 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 54 | 34 | 97 | 57 | .630 | 1 | WS Champ |
CHW | 1919 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 67 | 46 | 88 | 52 | .629 | 1 | AL Pennant |
STL | 1946 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 45 | 26 | 98 | 58 | .628 | 1 | WS Champ |
PHA | 1913 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 57 | 46 | 96 | 57 | .627 | 1 | WS Champ |
NYY | 2003 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 71 | 35 | 101 | 61 | .623 | 1 | AL Pennant |
CHW | 1920 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 58 | 27 | 96 | 58 | .623 | 2 | |
NYG | 1923 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 58 | 40 | 95 | 58 | .621 | 1 | NL Pennant |
MLN | 1957 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 49 | 32 | 95 | 59 | .617 | 1 | WS Champ |
BOS | 1904 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 39 | 25 | 95 | 59 | .617 | 1 | AL Pennant |
NYY | 1922 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 58 | 34 | 94 | 60 | .610 | 1 | AL Pennant |
WSH | 1930 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 61 | 46 | 94 | 60 | .610 | 2 | |
NYG | 1924 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 47 | 26 | 93 | 60 | .608 | 1 | NL Pennant |
NYY | 1933 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 68 | 37 | 91 | 59 | .607 | 2 | |
SDP | 1998 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 76 | 47 | 98 | 64 | .605 | 1 | NL Pennant |
BAL | 1997 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 61 | 40 | 98 | 64 | .605 | 1 | Division Champ |
LAD | 1977 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 70 | 42 | 98 | 64 | .605 | 1 | NL Pennant |
NYG | 1922 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 73 | 36 | 93 | 61 | .604 | 1 | WS Champ |
CLE | 1999 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 90 | 50 | 97 | 65 | .599 | 1 | Division Champ |
BOS | 1918 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 41 | 30 | 75 | 51 | .595 | 1 | WS Champ |
PIT | 1992 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 59 | 30 | 96 | 66 | .593 | 1 | Division Champ |
TOR | 1992 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 54 | 36 | 96 | 66 | .593 | 1 | WS Champ |
SFG | 2002 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 54 | 16 | 95 | 66 | .590 | 2 | NL Pennant |
CHW | 1957 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 56 | 33 | 90 | 64 | .584 | 2 | |
STL | 1981 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 61 | 27 | 59 | 43 | .578 | 1 | |
SLB | 1944 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 48 | 29 | 89 | 65 | .578 | 1 | AL Pennant |
ATL | 1969 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 55 | 38 | 93 | 69 | .574 | 1 | Division Champ |
LAD | 1981 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 42 | 19 | 63 | 47 | .573 | 2 | WS Champ |
CHC | 1934 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 62 | 28 | 86 | 65 | .570 | 3 | |
SDP | 1984 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 60 | 43 | 92 | 70 | .568 | 1 | NL Pennant |
KCR | 1978 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 44 | 29 | 92 | 70 | .568 | 1 | Division Champ |
PIT | 1966 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 48 | 39 | 92 | 70 | .568 | 3 | |
PHI | 1964 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 56 | 33 | 92 | 70 | .568 | 2 | |
NYG | 1925 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 51 | 32 | 86 | 66 | .566 | 2 | |
KCR | 1975 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 48 | 29 | 91 | 71 | .562 | 2 | |
CIN | 1990 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 64 | 35 | 91 | 71 | .562 | 1 | WS Champ |
PIT | 1937 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 50 | 29 | 86 | 68 | .558 | 3 | |
MON | 1981 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 58 | 41 | 60 | 48 | .556 | 2 | Wildcard |
SFG | 1971 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 57 | 27 | 90 | 72 | .556 | 1 | Division Champ |
CLE | 1998 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 72 | 57 | 89 | 73 | .549 | 1 | Division Champ |
HOU | 1972 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 67 | 46 | 84 | 69 | .549 | 2 | |
LAD | 1972 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 52 | 21 | 85 | 70 | .548 | 3 | |
BAL | 1996 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 53 | 35 | 88 | 74 | .543 | 2 | Wildcard |
PHI | 1953 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 68 | 41 | 83 | 71 | .539 | 4 | |
CHW | 1982 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 50 | 41 | 87 | 75 | .537 | 3 | |
CLE | 1935 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 62 | 34 | 82 | 71 | .536 | 3 | |
DET | 1978 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 69 | 52 | 86 | 76 | .531 | 5 | |
BRO | 1943 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 51 | 26 | 81 | 72 | .529 | 3 | |
NYY | 1988 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 72 | 48 | 85 | 76 | .528 | 5 | |
MIN | 2001 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 76 | 48 | 85 | 77 | .525 | 2 | |
PHI | 1911 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 64 | 34 | 79 | 73 | .520 | 4 | |
PIT | 1930 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 72 | 50 | 80 | 74 | .519 | 5 | |
BOS | 1952 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 61 | 27 | 76 | 78 | .494 | 6 | |
MON | 1974 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 79 | 52 | 79 | 82 | .491 | 4 | |
BAL | 1998 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 55 | 32 | 79 | 83 | .488 | 4 | |
CLE | 1988 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 58 | 25 | 78 | 84 | .481 | 6 | |
PIT | 1914 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 51 | 29 | 69 | 85 | .448 | 7 |
The big inning tonight might help, too.
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