Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Microcosmic
2005-04-18 13:04
by Mike Carminati

The Yankees acquired a big-name, surefire Hall of Famer in the offseason. They picked up the ace from a former World Series winner. And yet through 12 games were just 4-8, and to add insult to injury, they gave up eight runs to a division rival to lose their eighth.

It sounds pretty dire, but of course, that team went on to win the first of two consecutive World Series.

If you thought I'm talking about the 2005 incantation of the Yankees, you'd be wrong.

The big name was Reggie, as in Jackson, if you're nasty. The ace was Don Gullet, late from Big Red Machine, not Randy Johnson. And the year was 1977.

My point is that even though George Steinbrenner is up in arms, there's no reason to think that the Yankees can't pull out of their tailspin. There have been ten teams in baseball history who have made the playoffs after starting 4-8, plus two of the "division winners" in the strike-curtailed 1994 season.

Of course, that is out of 223 teams who started off at 4-8, so winning just four of your first 12 games is not all cream soda and Reggie bars, but it doesn't have to be the end of the world either. The average such team ends up 70- 85 with a .452 winning percentage and a fifth-place finish, however.

By the way, here are the teams that pulled out of this early-season nosedive:

TmYrWLWPRSRATot WTot LPctPosPostseason?
MON1994480.33348607440.6491
BAL1979480.333476310257.6421AL Pennant
ATL2003480.333518610161.6231Division Champ
PIT1925480.33353729558.6211WS Champ
NYY1977480.333415010062.6171WS Champ
ANA2002480.33338609963.6112WS Champ
PIT1979480.33349679864.6051WS Champ
CIN1995480.33365708559.5901Division Champ
OAK1973480.33354689468.5801WS Champ
ARI2001480.33365789270.5681WS Champ
OAK2000480.33362709170.5651Division Champ
LAD1994480.33354485856.5091

Oddly enough, the team that the Yankees faced that year in the Series was the Dodgers and they made the playoffs after starting off 9-2. Guess where the Dodgers are this year?

So for all the Dodger fans, keep in mind that 37 of 65 teams that started the season at 9-2 made the playoffs (since 1901). The average such team was 90-64 with a .583 in second place. That translates into 95 wins in 162-game schedule. If the Dodgers do end up 95-67, who thinks that they will fail to make the playoffs this year?

Here are the other 9-2 starters by winning percentage:

TmYrWLWPRSRATot WTot LPctPosPostseason?
PIT190292.818753110336.7411NL Pennant
CHC190792.818423110745.7041WS Champ
CIN191992.81859289644.6861WS Champ
STL194492.818493010549.6821WS Champ
NYY195392.81843259952.6561WS Champ
DET191592.818603910054.6492
CHW191792.818482010054.6491WS Champ
OAK199092.818593810359.6361AL Pennant
DET196892.818472710359.6361WS Champ
NYY194992.81854349757.6301WS Champ
CHW191992.81867468852.6291AL Pennant
STL194692.81845269858.6281WS Champ
PHA191392.81857469657.6271WS Champ
NYY200392.818713510161.6231AL Pennant
CHW192092.81858279658.6232
NYG192392.81858409558.6211NL Pennant
MLN195792.81849329559.6171WS Champ
BOS190492.81839259559.6171AL Pennant
NYY192292.81858349460.6101AL Pennant
WSH193092.81861469460.6102
NYG192492.81847269360.6081NL Pennant
NYY193392.81868379159.6072
SDP199892.81876479864.6051NL Pennant
BAL199792.81861409864.6051Division Champ
LAD197792.81870429864.6051NL Pennant
NYG192292.81873369361.6041WS Champ
CLE199992.81890509765.5991Division Champ
BOS191892.81841307551.5951WS Champ
PIT199292.81859309666.5931Division Champ
TOR199292.81854369666.5931WS Champ
SFG200292.81854169566.5902NL Pennant
CHW195792.81856339064.5842
STL198192.81861275943.5781
SLB194492.81848298965.5781AL Pennant
ATL196992.81855389369.5741Division Champ
LAD198192.81842196347.5732WS Champ
CHC193492.81862288665.5703
SDP198492.81860439270.5681NL Pennant
KCR197892.81844299270.5681Division Champ
PIT196692.81848399270.5683
PHI196492.81856339270.5682
NYG192592.81851328666.5662
KCR197592.81848299171.5622
CIN199092.81864359171.5621WS Champ
PIT193792.81850298668.5583
MON198192.81858416048.5562Wildcard
SFG197192.81857279072.5561Division Champ
CLE199892.81872578973.5491Division Champ
HOU197292.81867468469.5492
LAD197292.81852218570.5483
BAL199692.81853358874.5432Wildcard
PHI195392.81868418371.5394
CHW198292.81850418775.5373
CLE193592.81862348271.5363
DET197892.81869528676.5315
BRO194392.81851268172.5293
NYY198892.81872488576.5285
MIN200192.81876488577.5252
PHI191192.81864347973.5204
PIT193092.81872508074.5195
BOS195292.81861277678.4946
MON197492.81879527982.4914
BAL199892.81855327983.4884
CLE198892.81858257884.4816
PIT191492.81851296985.4487
Comments
2005-04-18 13:32:09
1.   rbj
Thnaks for the info Mike. Helps to keep my spirits up.
2005-04-18 20:16:05
2.   Mike Carminati
RBJ,

The big inning tonight might help, too.

2005-04-19 05:41:24
3.   rbj
It did, but not Wright's performance. Maybe the Yankees and Braves could trade pitching coaches, Kolb looks like he could use a cutter.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.