Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
After whooping up on the Packers, my Eagles, I am prepared to say,—pardon my momentary foray into football—are the best team in the NFC. After three attempts to get past the NFC championship game, I cannot see anyone getting in their way this year.
I foresee a return to the Super Bowl for the Eagles after a 24-year absence. In the last and only appearance in the Janet Jackson Bowl, the Eagles got lambasted by the wildcard Raiders 27-10 in 1980, even though they beat Oakland 10-6 earlier in the year. The highlight of the Eagles' franchise history, at least in my lifetime, was in the previous game as Wilbert Montgomery led the team past the detested Cowboys 20-7 (Herman Edwards' "Miracle in the Meadowlands" is a close second).
Anyway, I submit that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL right now and should crash Tom Brady and the Patriots' annual party. I am still shocked that the Patsies are anything more than a passable franchise. When I lived around Boston about a dozen years ago, they were easily the fourth-favorite professional franchise in the Boston area, much farther down if you included college football and hockey. They played in a stadium in the middle of nowhere, probably drew as many fans from central Massachusetts as they did from Boston proper, and seemed never to sell out. And they had just gone through a sexual harassment scandal with a female reporter in the locker room. In short, they were an embarrassment. Now, they are the second coming of the old Green Bay Packers.
But is it warranted? Here's a comparison of all the franchises based on Bill James's Pythagorean formula:
Team | W | L | T | Pct | PF | PA |
Eagles | 11 | 1 | 0 | .917 | 340 | 181 |
Patriots | 11 | 1 | 0 | .917 | 330 | 189 |
Steelers | 11 | 1 | 0 | .917 | 273 | 184 |
Colts | 9 | 3 | 0 | .750 | 431 | 263 |
Jets | 9 | 3 | 0 | .750 | 254 | 175 |
Chargers | 9 | 3 | 0 | .750 | 339 | 238 |
Falcons | 9 | 3 | 0 | .750 | 232 | 242 |
Broncos | 7 | 5 | 0 | .583 | 274 | 212 |
Ravens | 7 | 5 | 0 | .583 | 233 | 191 |
Packers | 7 | 5 | 0 | .583 | 318 | 294 |
Vikings | 7 | 5 | 0 | .583 | 305 | 286 |
Seahawks | 6 | 5 | 0 | .545 | 239 | 223 |
Bills | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 | 260 | 224 |
Bengals | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 | 268 | 272 |
Jaguars | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 | 198 | 225 |
Rams | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 | 253 | 305 |
Buccaneers | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 | 233 | 203 |
Panthers | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 | 249 | 257 |
Giants | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 | 209 | 230 |
Bears | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 | 196 | 235 |
Texans | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 | 236 | 289 |
Lions | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 | 218 | 269 |
Cowboys | 4 | 7 | 0 | .364 | 193 | 289 |
Chiefs | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 341 | 326 |
Redskins | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 169 | 201 |
Titans | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 231 | 294 |
Cardinals | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 192 | 253 |
Saints | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 253 | 344 |
Raiders | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 234 | 328 |
Browns | 3 | 9 | 0 | .250 | 240 | 308 |
Dolphins | 2 | 10 | 0 | .167 | 196 | 269 |
49ers | 1 | 11 | 0 | .083 | 198 | 336 |
The Eagles, Patriots, and Steelers are all atop the standings at 11-1. However, I submit that the Eagles are the best of the lot. Here are the expected team records:
Team | Exp PCT | Exp W | Exp L | Diff | Biggest underachiever? |
Eagles | .760 | 9.12 | 2.88 | -.157 | 29 |
Patriots | .735 | 8.82 | 3.18 | -.182 | 30 |
Colts | .712 | 8.54 | 3.46 | -.038 | 21 |
Steelers | .673 | 8.08 | 3.92 | -.244 | 31 |
Jets | .664 | 7.97 | 4.03 | -.086 | 27 |
Chargers | .656 | 7.88 | 4.12 | -.094 | 28 |
Broncos | .615 | 7.38 | 4.62 | .032 | 12 |
Ravens | .590 | 7.08 | 4.92 | .007 | 15 |
Bills | .568 | 6.81 | 5.19 | .068 | 8 |
Buccaneers | .563 | 6.75 | 5.25 | .146 | 4 |
Packers | .536 | 6.43 | 5.57 | -.047 | 23 |
Seahawks | .532 | 5.85 | 5.15 | -.013 | 20 |
Vikings | .529 | 6.35 | 5.65 | -.054 | 24 |
Chiefs | .521 | 6.25 | 5.75 | .188 | 3 |
Bengals | .493 | 5.92 | 6.08 | -.007 | 17 |
Panthers | .486 | 5.83 | 6.17 | .069 | 7 |
Falcons | .481 | 5.77 | 6.23 | -.269 | 32 |
Giants | .456 | 5.48 | 6.52 | .039 | 11 |
Jaguars | .442 | 5.30 | 6.70 | -.058 | 25 |
Redskins | .421 | 5.06 | 6.94 | .088 | 6 |
Bears | .418 | 5.01 | 6.99 | .001 | 16 |
Rams | .415 | 4.98 | 7.02 | -.085 | 26 |
Texans | .408 | 4.90 | 7.10 | -.009 | 18 |
Lions | .405 | 4.86 | 7.14 | -.012 | 19 |
Titans | .391 | 4.70 | 7.30 | .058 | 9 |
Browns | .388 | 4.65 | 7.35 | .138 | 5 |
Cardinals | .376 | 4.52 | 7.48 | .043 | 10 |
Saints | .363 | 4.36 | 7.64 | .030 | 13 |
Dolphins | .359 | 4.31 | 7.69 | .192 | 2 |
Raiders | .350 | 4.20 | 7.80 | .017 | 14 |
Cowboys | .323 | 3.56 | 7.44 | -.041 | 22 |
49ers | .275 | 3.30 | 8.70 | .192 | 1 |
The Eagles are slightly ahead of the Patriots, and it's gratifying to see the Cowboys sink down to just above the lowly 49ers. It also seems that Michael Vick notwithstanding, the Falcons and their 9-3 record are likely a mirage.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.