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Wilbert Montgomery, Where Art Thou?
2004-12-07 00:50
by Mike Carminati

After whooping up on the Packers, my Eagles, I am prepared to say,—pardon my momentary foray into football—are the best team in the NFC. After three attempts to get past the NFC championship game, I cannot see anyone getting in their way this year.

I foresee a return to the Super Bowl for the Eagles after a 24-year absence. In the last and only appearance in the Janet Jackson Bowl, the Eagles got lambasted by the wildcard Raiders 27-10 in 1980, even though they beat Oakland 10-6 earlier in the year. The highlight of the Eagles' franchise history, at least in my lifetime, was in the previous game as Wilbert Montgomery led the team past the detested Cowboys 20-7 (Herman Edwards' "Miracle in the Meadowlands" is a close second).

Anyway, I submit that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL right now and should crash Tom Brady and the Patriots' annual party. I am still shocked that the Patsies are anything more than a passable franchise. When I lived around Boston about a dozen years ago, they were easily the fourth-favorite professional franchise in the Boston area, much farther down if you included college football and hockey. They played in a stadium in the middle of nowhere, probably drew as many fans from central Massachusetts as they did from Boston proper, and seemed never to sell out. And they had just gone through a sexual harassment scandal with a female reporter in the locker room. In short, they were an embarrassment. Now, they are the second coming of the old Green Bay Packers.

But is it warranted? Here's a comparison of all the franchises based on Bill James's Pythagorean formula:

TeamWLTPctPFPA
Eagles1110.917340181
Patriots1110.917330189
Steelers1110.917273184
Colts930.750431263
Jets930.750254175
Chargers930.750339238
Falcons930.750232242
Broncos750.583274212
Ravens750.583233191
Packers750.583318294
Vikings750.583305286
Seahawks650.545239223
Bills660.500260224
Bengals660.500268272
Jaguars660.500198225
Rams660.500253305
Buccaneers570.417233203
Panthers570.417249257
Giants570.417209230
Bears570.417196235
Texans570.417236289
Lions570.417218269
Cowboys470.364193289
Chiefs480.333341326
Redskins480.333169201
Titans480.333231294
Cardinals480.333192253
Saints480.333253344
Raiders480.333234328
Browns390.250240308
Dolphins2100.167196269
49ers1110.083198336

The Eagles, Patriots, and Steelers are all atop the standings at 11-1. However, I submit that the Eagles are the best of the lot. Here are the expected team records:

TeamExp PCTExp WExp LDiffBiggest underachiever?
Eagles.7609.122.88-.15729
Patriots.7358.823.18-.18230
Colts.7128.543.46-.03821
Steelers.6738.083.92-.24431
Jets.6647.974.03-.08627
Chargers.6567.884.12-.09428
Broncos.6157.384.62.03212
Ravens.5907.084.92.00715
Bills.5686.815.19.0688
Buccaneers.5636.755.25.1464
Packers.5366.435.57-.04723
Seahawks.5325.855.15-.01320
Vikings.5296.355.65-.05424
Chiefs.5216.255.75.1883
Bengals.4935.926.08-.00717
Panthers.4865.836.17.0697
Falcons.4815.776.23-.26932
Giants.4565.486.52.03911
Jaguars.4425.306.70-.05825
Redskins.4215.066.94.0886
Bears.4185.016.99.00116
Rams.4154.987.02-.08526
Texans.4084.907.10-.00918
Lions.4054.867.14-.01219
Titans.3914.707.30.0589
Browns.3884.657.35.1385
Cardinals.3764.527.48.04310
Saints.3634.367.64.03013
Dolphins.3594.317.69.1922
Raiders.3504.207.80.01714
Cowboys.3233.567.44-.04122
49ers.2753.308.70.1921

The Eagles are slightly ahead of the Patriots, and it's gratifying to see the Cowboys sink down to just above the lowly 49ers. It also seems that Michael Vick notwithstanding, the Falcons and their 9-3 record are likely a mirage.

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