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Marlins Off the Hook
2005-04-14 11:58
by Mike Carminati

I swear if the Phils an Marlins played an entire season against each other, the Marlins would finish 162-0 and the Phillies, 0-162. At least that's how it seems in the roller coaster world which is to be the 2005 Phils season.

Yesterday, Dontrelle Willis D-railed—are we sick of this yet?—the Phils offense, shutting them out, 4-0, on only three hits (all singles) and a walk while striking out seven. This was an offense that entered the game with the most runs in baseball. It was Willis's second straight shutout to start the season.

It was the fourth shutout and fourth complete game for the Marlins in nine games (though one shutout was a team shutout, not a complete game). I am of two minds on this: First, I thought that if the Marlins could get their young starters to gel, they would be the team to beat in the NL East. Second, I think "Don't Call Me Trader" Jack McKeon is going to Billy Ball the arms off the starters by the All-Star game.

He makes Dusty Baker look like a pitcher coddler. The Marlins starters have racked up 63.1 innings in nine starts. That's a hair over seven innings a start, and this is just April when managers usually go easy on the rotation. They've also thrown 896 pitches, which is just a hair under one hundred per game. So maybe it's not so bad if they are typically held to a reasonable total.

We'll just have to see if this is all an early-season aberration or if the workload of the starters becomes an issue as the season progresses. It does make them more interesting, at least, in my book.

Anyway, for fun, let's assume that the Marlins can keep it up, shutout and complete games at the 44% clip they are doing now. How unusual would that be?

No team has ever shutout the opposition more than 25% of the time, and no team in the expansion era have eclipsed 20%. Here are the all-time team leaders:

TeamYrLgGSHOCGCG%SHO% ERA WLPCT
Milwaukee Brewers1884UA12312100%25% 2.25 84.667
St. Louis Brown Stockings1876NL64166398%25% 1.22 4519.703
Chicago White Sox1906AL1543211776%21% 2.13 9358.616
Chicago Cubs1909NL1553211172%21% 1.75 10449.680
Chicago Cubs1907NL1553211474%21% 1.73 10745.704
Boston Red Sox1918AL1262610583%21% 2.31 7551.595
Chicago Cubs1906NL1553012581%19% 1.75 11636.763
St. Louis Cardinals1968NL162306339%19% 2.49 9765.599
Chicago Cubs1908NL1582910868%18% 2.14 9955.643
Philadelphia Athletics1907AL1502710671%18% 2.35 8857.607
Philadelphia Athletics1909AL1532711072%18% 1.93 9558.621
Cincinnati Reds1981NL108192523%18% 3.73 6642.611
Chicago Cubs1918NL131239270%18% 2.18 8445.651
Pittsburgh Pirates1906NL1542711675%18% 2.21 9360.608
New York Mets1969NL162285131%17% 2.99 10062.617
Los Angeles Angels1964AL162283019%17% 2.91 8280.506
Los Angeles Dodgers1981NL110192624%17% 3.01 6347.573
Cleveland Naps1906AL1572713385%17% 2.09 8964.582
Philadelphia Athletics1904AL1552613688%17% 2.35 8170.536
Chicago White Sox1904AL1562613486%17% 2.30 8965.578
Cleveland Indians1948AL156266642%17% 3.22 9758.626
St. Louis Cardinals1944NL157268957%17% 2.67 10549.682
Cincinnati Reds1919NL140238964%16% 2.23 9644.686
Chicago White Sox1909AL1592611572%16% 2.05 7874.513
Philadelphia Phillies1916NL154259763%16% 2.36 9162.595
Chicago Cubs1910NL1542510065%16% 2.51 10450.675

Here are the teams with the highest shutout rates in the expansion era:

TeamYrLgGSHOCGCG%SHO% ERA WLPCT
St. Louis Cardinals1968NL162306339%19% 2.49 9765.599
Cincinnati Reds1981NL108192523%18% 3.73 6642.611
New York Mets1969NL162285131%17% 2.99 10062.617
Los Angeles Angels1964AL162283019%17% 2.91 8280.506
Los Angeles Dodgers1981NL110192624%17% 3.01 6347.573
New York Mets1968NL163254528%15% 2.72 7389.451
Los Angeles Dodgers1972NL155235032%15% 2.78 8570.548
Oakland Athletics1972AL155234227%15% 2.58 9362.600
Chicago White Sox1967AL162243622%15% 2.45 8973.549
Los Angeles Dodgers1988NL162243220%15% 2.96 9467.584
Atlanta Braves1992NL162242616%15% 3.14 9864.605
Los Angeles Dodgers1963NL163245131%15% 2.85 9963.611

As for the complete games, their rate is extremely unusual today, but in baseball's primordial past—I'm talking about when the Royals were good—, many teams had starters complete most if not all their games. Here are the teams with the highest percentage of complete games pitched by their starters in the expansion era:

TeamYrLgGSHOCGCG%SHO% ERA WLPCT
Oakland Athletics1980AL16299458%6% 3.46 8379.512
Oakland Athletics1981AL109136055%12% 3.30 6445.587
San Francisco Giants1968NL163207747%12% 2.71 8874.543
Chicago Cubs1971NL162177546%10% 3.61 8379.512
Baltimore Orioles1971AL158157145%9% 2.99 10157.639
California Angels1973AL162137244%8% 3.53 7983.488
Baltimore Orioles1975AL159197044%12% 3.17 9069.566
San Francisco Giants1969NL162157144%9% 3.26 9072.556
Boston Red Sox1974AL162127144%7% 3.72 8478.519
New York Yankees1975AL160117044%7% 3.29 8377.519
Boston Red Sox1973AL162106741%6% 3.65 8973.549
Baltimore Orioles1973AL162146741%9% 3.07 9765.599
New York Yankees1971AL162156741%9% 3.43 8280.506
St. Louis Cardinals1972NL156136441%8% 3.42 7581.481
Baltimore Orioles1978AL161166540%10% 3.56 9071.559
Baltimore Orioles1977AL161116540%7% 3.74 9764.602
Baltimore Orioles1972AL154206240%13% 2.53 8074.519
California Angels1976AL162156440%9% 3.36 7686.469
San Francisco Giants1967NL162176440%10% 2.92 9171.562
California Angels1974AL163136439%8% 3.52 6894.420

The Marlins would have the highest rate in 24 years, but the Billy Ball-era A's put them to shame.

Finally, the Marlins have a team 1.36 ERA (1.42 for the starters, 1.19 for the relievers, both tops in the majors). There is only one team in baseball history with a lower ERA, the 1876 St. Louis Brown Stockings, no relation to the team that was the forerunner to today's Cardinals, whose 1.22 ERA is almost forty points better than the number-two team. The lowest ERA in the "modern" era was 1.73 by the 1907 Cubs. The lowest in the expansion era was 2.45 by the 89-73 1967 Chicago White Sox. Hera er the lowest all time:

TeamYrLgGSHOCGCG%SHO% ERA WLPCT
St. Louis Brown Stockings1876NL64166398%25% 1.22 4519.703
Hartford Dark Blues1875NA86138397%15% 1.61 5428.659
Providence Grays1884NL1141610794%14% 1.61 8428.750
Providence Grays1880NL87137586%15% 1.64 5232.619
Cincinnati Red Stockings1882AA80117796%14% 1.65 5525.688
Hartford Dark Blues1876NL691169100%16% 1.67 4721.691
Louisville Grays1876NL6956797%7% 1.69 3036.455
Boston Red Stockings1875NA82106073%12% 1.70 718.899
New York Giants1885NL1121610997%14% 1.72 8527.759
Chicago Cubs1907NL1553211474%21% 1.73 10745.704
Chicago Cubs1909NL1553211172%21% 1.75 10449.680
Chicago Cubs1906NL1553012581%19% 1.75 11636.763
Chicago White Stockings1876NL6695989%14% 1.76 5214.788
Philadelphia Athletics1910AL1552412379%15% 1.79 10248.680
Cincinnati Reds1878NL61661100%10% 1.84 3723.617
Cleveland Blues1880NL8578398%8% 1.90 4737.560
Philadelphia Athletics1909AL1532711072%18% 1.93 9558.621
Chicago White Stockings1880NL8688093%9% 1.93 6717.798
St. Louis Maroons1884UA114810491%7% 1.96 9419.832
New York Giants1888NL1382013396%14% 1.96 8447.641
Chicago White Sox1905AL1581513183%9% 1.99 9260.605
Boston Red Stockings1872NA4834185%6% 1.99 398.830

By the way, the Rockies have a 7.64 team ERA, the Nationals own a 5.81 ERA—Natty dread!—, and the Rangers a 5.79 ERA. Five others have team ERAs over 5.00. The Rockies, if they could possible continue at that pace, wouldn't even own the record. Here are all the teams with ERAs over 5.75. Note that the dreadful '96 Tigers and '30 Phils make the top four. Another Washington Nationals team is number two:

TeamYrLgGSHOCGCG%SHO% ERA WLPCT
Baltimore Marylands1873NA606100%0% 8.00 06.000
Washington Nationals1872NA11011100%0% 6.91 011.000
Philadelphia Phillies1930NL15635435%2% 6.71 52102.338
Detroit Tigers1996AL1624106%2% 6.38 53109.327
Washington Olympics1872NA909100%0% 6.38 27.222
Cleveland Spiders1899NL154013890%0% 6.37 20134.130
St. Louis Browns1936AL15535435%2% 6.24 5795.375
St. Louis Browns1897NL132110983%1% 6.21 29102.221
Philadelphia Phillies1929NL15454529%3% 6.13 7182.464
Buffalo Bisons1890PL134212593%1% 6.11 3696.273
Philadelphia Athletics1936AL15436844%2% 6.08 53100.346
Colorado Rockies1999NL1622127%1% 6.02 7290.444
St. Louis Browns1939AL15635636%2% 6.01 43111.279
St. Louis Browns1937AL15625535%1% 6.00 46108.299
Cincinnati Reds1894NL132411083%3% 5.99 5575.423
Middletown Mansfields1872NA2402292%0% 5.97 519.208
Pittsburgh Alleghenys1890NL138311986%2% 5.97 23113.169
Louisville Colonels1895NL133310478%2% 5.90 3596.267
Louisville Colonels1893NL126411390%3% 5.90 5075.400
St. Louis Browns1938AL15637146%2% 5.80 5597.362
Philadelphia Athletics1939AL15365033%4% 5.79 5597.362
St. Louis Browns1895NL135110578%1% 5.76 3992.298
Minnesota Twins1995AL144275%1% 5.76 5688.389

Finally, even among this early-season induced ridiculousness, What Willis has done still stands out. Could he go a whole season shutout out the opposition while throwing a complete game? I think the odds are better that he doesn't throw another shutout this year. However, I'm feeling indulgent. What are the best individual "records" for the stats we've just discussed (min. 50 IP)?

Here are the pitchers with the highest percentage of shutouts all time:

NameYrWLGSHOCGSHO%CG% ERA
Tex Neuer19074273643%86% 2.17
Bob Gibson196822934132838%82% 1.12
Pedro Astacio199255114436%36% 1.98
Jesse Stovall19035162633%100% 2.52
Max Lanier19466062633%100% 2.53
Pete Alexander1916331248163833%79% 2.48
Ed Killian19033493733%78% 2.05
Al Grabowski19293262433%67% 1.93
Art Nehf191554124633%50% 1.55
Fernando Valenzuela19811372581132%44% 2.48
Howie Pollet1943841651231%75% 1.75
Pete Alexander191916113092030%67% 1.72
Jack Coombs191031945133529%78% 1.30
Joe Borden18752472729%100% 2.23
Dana Fillingim1918761441029%71% 1.45
Hippo Vaughn19135172529%71% 1.64
Johnny Humphries194142144429%29% 1.84
John Tudor198521836101428%39% 1.93
Sandy Koufax196325540112028%50% 1.88
Don Sutton19721993391827%55% 2.08
Mort Cooper194222737102227%59% 1.78
Sadie McMahon18951041541527%100% 2.94
Addie Joss19062193492826%82% 1.72
Bob Porterfield195322103492426%71% 3.35
Luis Tiant19682193491926%56% 1.60
Ben Sanders188819103182826%90% 1.90
Ed Walsh190915113182026%65% 2.15
Don Drysdale196814123181226%39% 1.41
Ron Guidry19782533591626%46% 1.74
Jim Palmer1975231139102526%64% 2.09
Juan Marichal1965221339102426%62% 2.13

The highest percentage of complete games in the expansion era:

NameYrWLGSHOCGSHO%CG% ERA
Bob Gibson196822934132838%82% 1.12
Bob Gibson196920133542811%80% 2.18
Rick Langford19801912352286%80% 3.26
Juan Marichal19682693853013%79% 2.43
Mark Fidrych19761993142413%77% 2.34
Catfish Hunter197523143973018%77% 2.58
Fergie Jenkins19712413393308%77% 2.77
Gaylord Perry197421133742811%76% 2.51
Rick Langford19811210242188%75% 2.99
Steve Carlton197227104183020%73% 1.97
Juan Marichal196921113782722%73% 2.10
Mike Norris1980229331243%73% 2.53
Steve McCatty19811472241618%73% 2.33
Wilbur Wood19764371514%71% 2.24
Fergie Jenkins197425124162915%71% 2.82
Gaylord Perry197224164152912%71% 1.92
Gaylord Perry197319194172917%71% 3.38
Juan Marichal19671410262188%69% 2.76
Denny McLain19683164162815%68% 1.96
Ron Guidry19832193132110%68% 3.42
Bob Gibson1970237343239%68% 3.12
Bob Gibson197219113442312%68% 2.46
Frank Tanana19761910342236%68% 2.43
Gaylord Perry197518173752514%68% 3.24
Juan Marichal19662563742511%68% 2.23
Juan Marichal19642183342212%67% 2.48
Warren Spahn19632373372221%67% 2.60

The lowest ERA, expansion era:

NameYrWLGSHOCGSHO%CG% ERA
Dennis Eckersley19904263000%0% 0.61
Rob Murphy19866034000%0% 0.72
Bill Henry19642237000%0% 0.87
Chris Hammond20027263000%0% 0.95
Dale Murray19741132000%0% 1.03
Rollie Fingers19816347000%0% 1.04
Bob Veale19635234236%9% 1.04
John Smoltz20030262000%0% 1.12
Bob Gibson196822934132838%82% 1.12
Jose Mesa19953062000%0% 1.13
Tim Burke19877055000%0% 1.19
Eric Gagne20032377000%0% 1.20
Frank Williams19863136000%0% 1.20
Jim Brewer19728751000%0% 1.26
Ted Abernathy19676370000%0% 1.27
Armando Benitez20042264000%0% 1.29
Ugueth Urbina19986364000%0% 1.30

The lowest ERA, expansion era, starters only:

NameYrWLGSHOCGSHO%CG% ERA
Bob Gibson196822934132838%82% 1.12
Dwight Gooden19852443581623%46% 1.53
Steve Rogers1973105173718%41% 1.54
Greg Maddux19941662531012%40% 1.56
Luis Tiant19682193491926%56% 1.60
Greg Maddux19951922831011%36% 1.63
Dean Chance196420946111524%33% 1.65
Nolan Ryan1981115213514%24% 1.69
Sandy Koufax19662794152712%66% 1.73
Sandy Koufax19641952971524%52% 1.74
Pedro Martinez2000186294714%24% 1.74
Ron Guidry19782533591626%46% 1.74
Dick Bosman19673171214%29% 1.75
Tom Seaver197120103642111%58% 1.76
Cal Eldred199211214127%14% 1.79
Sam McDowell19681514383118%29% 1.81
Vida Blue19712483982421%62% 1.82
Joe Horlen196413932296%28% 1.88
Sandy Koufax196325540112028%50% 1.88
Kevin Brown1996171132359%16% 1.89
J.R. Richard1980104174424%24% 1.90
Pedro Martinez19971783141313%42% 1.90
Wilbur Wood197122134472216%50% 1.91
Gaylord Perry197224164152912%71% 1.92
Comments
2005-04-15 10:53:31
1.   rbj
Subtracting out Gibson's 13 shutouts, he was only 9-9. Yet his ERA in those games was 1.82. I know 68 was a nadir of hitting, but a .500 record with an ERA under two? Was the wind blowing in every game or did his team only want to get him one run game? Yeesh.

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