Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : Oh, K Correl.

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Oh, K Correl.

2005-04-13 21:58

by Mike Carminati

Last week Toaster-mate Will Carroll posed to the group the musical question:

"I was thinking ... they showed the all-time K leaders on tonight's game and all of them were modern era, all playing into the 80s. There's probably a simple answer to this. In context and era-adjusted, how much are Clemens and Johnson's K stats 'inflated', like most think modern home run stats are.

"Better, is there any connect between climbing K rates and HR rates?"

Never one to back down from a challenge, when it doesn't require me to get up off my duff and turn off the TV, I investigated.

Sure enough, there are more than two times as many strikeouts per plate appearance today than in 1920 (actually 2.15 times in the AL and 2.23 in the NL). Also, homers per plate appearance correlate to many strikeouts per plate appearance surprisingly well when compared to other statistics (with a coefficient of .779).

Here it is compared to other ratios (based on per-league data) correlated to strikeouts per plate appearance. The higher the correlation, the better. A correlation of 1.000 (like BA) would be perfect. A negative correlation means that the statistic correlates inversely, i.e., goes up when strikeouts go down and vice versa:

Lg BA	Lg OBP	Lg SLUG	Lg OPS	Tot HR	HRperPA	BBperPA
-0.485	-0.037	0.328	0.201	0.810	0.779	0.442

I guess it's not much of a surprise that batting average and on-base percentage are negatively impacted by high strikeout totals. However, it might be surprising that walks though not correlated to K's all that well, do increase as strikeouts increase. Also, though homers correlate the best to K's, slugging percentage does not, indicating that the other components of slugging are not affected positively by the big swing that might lead to a K.

One other correlation of note, home runs and walks (per plate appearance) have a coefficient of .577. Yes, it's better than the ratios, but not by much (especially when one considers that most of them top out at around 1.000). However, it does indicate that even though there might be years with big swings for the fences, it doesn't mean that it leads to fewer walks.

For you completists in the crowd—you know who you are—here is a table for all seasons all-time:

Yr	Lg	Lg BA	Lg OBP	Lg SLUG	Lg OPS	HRperPA	BBperPA	KperPA
1871	NA	.287	.312	.384	.695	.004	0.035	.016
1872	NA	.286	.297	.347	.644	.002	0.016	.016
1873	NA	.290	.303	.355	.659	.003	0.019	.014
1874	NA	.274	.282	.333	.616	.002	0.012	.000
1875	NA	.254	.261	.310	.571	.002	0.009	.000
1876	NL	.265	.277	.321	.598	.002	0.016	.029
1877	NL	.271	.289	.338	.627	.002	0.025	.052
1878	NL	.259	.279	.319	.598	.002	0.026	.077
1879	NL	.255	.271	.329	.599	.002	0.021	.075
1880	NL	.245	.267	.320	.587	.002	0.030	.080
1881	NL	.260	.290	.338	.628	.003	0.041	.070
1882	AA	.244	.271	.312	.582	.003	0.036	.068
1882	NL	.251	.279	.342	.622	.005	0.037	.084
1883	AA	.252	.282	.331	.613	.004	0.040	.081
1883	NL	.262	.290	.360	.650	.004	0.037	.095
1884	AA	.240	.278	.326	.604	.005	0.041	.112
1884	NL	.247	.287	.340	.626	.009	0.053	.126
1884	UA	.245	.272	.316	.588	.004	0.036	.153
1885	AA	.246	.292	.328	.620	.004	0.050	.100
1885	NL	.241	.284	.322	.606	.005	0.056	.101
1886	AA	.243	.305	.323	.628	.004	0.075	.112
1886	NL	.251	.300	.342	.641	.007	0.065	.117
1887	AA	.273	.337	.367	.704	.005	0.078	.072
1887	NL	.269	.326	.381	.707	.010	0.070	.073
1888	AA	.238	.297	.315	.612	.005	0.064	.103
1888	NL	.239	.285	.325	.609	.008	0.052	.100
1889	AA	.262	.333	.354	.687	.007	0.086	.097
1889	NL	.264	.334	.359	.693	.009	0.087	.084
1890	AA	.253	.330	.332	.662	.005	0.091	.103
1890	NL	.254	.329	.342	.671	.006	0.090	.086
1890	PL	.274	.351	.378	.729	.007	0.097	.069
1891	AA	.255	.338	.344	.682	.007	0.097	.092
1891	NL	.252	.325	.342	.667	.007	0.088	.084
1892	NL	.245	.317	.327	.644	.006	0.087	.084
1893	NL	.280	.356	.379	.736	.007	0.096	.052
1894	NL	.309	.379	.435	.814	.010	0.091	.052
1895	NL	.296	.361	.400	.761	.008	0.081	.057
1896	NL	.290	.354	.387	.741	.006	0.078	.057
1897	NL	.292	.354	.386	.741	.006	0.075	.059
1898	NL	.271	.334	.347	.681	.004	0.073	.061
1899	NL	.282	.343	.366	.710	.005	0.071	.055
1900	NL	.279	.339	.366	.705	.006	0.070	.062
1901	AL	.277	.333	.371	.704	.005	0.066	.065
1901	NL	.267	.321	.348	.669	.005	0.063	.099
1902	AL	.275	.331	.369	.700	.006	0.067	.065
1902	NL	.259	.313	.319	.631	.002	0.062	.093
1903	AL	.255	.303	.344	.648	.004	0.055	.102
1903	NL	.269	.331	.349	.679	.004	0.073
1904	AL	.244	.295	.321	.616	.003	0.057	.110
1904	NL	.249	.306	.322	.628	.004	0.065
1905	AL	.241	.299	.314	.613	.003	0.066
1905	NL	.255	.315	.332	.647	.004	0.070
1906	AL	.249	.303	.318	.621	.003	0.062
1906	NL	.244	.310	.310	.620	.003	0.075
1907	AL	.247	.302	.309	.611	.002	0.062
1907	NL	.243	.308	.309	.616	.003	0.074
1908	AL	.239	.294	.304	.598	.003	0.062
1908	NL	.239	.299	.306	.605	.003	0.068
1909	AL	.244	.303	.309	.611	.002	0.065
1909	NL	.244	.310	.314	.624	.003	0.078
1910	AL	.243	.308	.313	.621	.003	0.073
1910	NL	.256	.328	.338	.666	.005	0.086	.095
1911	AL	.273	.338	.358	.696	.004	0.076
1911	NL	.260	.335	.356	.691	.007	0.091	.102
1912	AL	.265	.333	.348	.681	.003	0.082
1912	NL	.272	.340	.369	.710	.006	0.083	.099
1913	AL	.256	.325	.336	.661	.004	0.082	.103
1913	NL	.262	.325	.354	.679	.007	0.076	.099
1914	AL	.248	.319	.323	.642	.003	0.084	.110
1914	FL	.263	.328	.355	.682	.006	0.078	.112
1914	NL	.251	.317	.334	.651	.006	0.078	.101
1915	AL	.248	.325	.326	.651	.003	0.091	.105
1915	FL	.255	.320	.340	.661	.005	0.079	.100
1915	NL	.248	.309	.331	.640	.005	0.071	.103
1916	AL	.248	.321	.324	.645	.003	0.087	.101
1916	NL	.247	.303	.328	.632	.005	0.066	.106
1917	AL	.248	.318	.320	.638	.003	0.083	.090
1917	NL	.249	.305	.328	.633	.004	0.066	.097
1918	AL	.254	.323	.322	.646	.003	0.084	.079
1918	NL	.254	.311	.328	.638	.004	0.067	.077
1919	AL	.268	.333	.359	.692	.006	0.079	.084
1919	NL	.258	.311	.337	.648	.005	0.063	.079
1920	AL	.283	.347	.387	.734	.008	0.080	.077
1920	NL	.270	.322	.357	.679	.006	0.064	.077
1921	AL	.292	.356	.408	.765	.010	0.081	.074
1921	NL	.289	.338	.397	.736	.010	0.062	.072
1922	AL	.285	.348	.398	.746	.011	0.079	.074
1922	NL	.292	.348	.404	.753	.011	0.072	.070
1923	AL	.283	.351	.388	.739	.009	0.085	.075
1923	NL	.286	.343	.395	.737	.011	0.073	.071
1924	AL	.290	.358	.397	.755	.008	0.086	.067
1924	NL	.283	.337	.392	.729	.011	0.068	.072
1925	AL	.292	.360	.408	.768	.011	0.088	.068
1925	NL	.292	.348	.414	.762	.013	0.073	.071
1926	AL	.281	.351	.392	.743	.009	0.088	.072
1926	NL	.280	.338	.386	.724	.009	0.074	.071
1927	AL	.286	.352	.399	.751	.009	0.084	.070
1927	NL	.282	.339	.386	.725	.010	0.072	.073
1928	AL	.281	.344	.397	.741	.010	0.080	.078
1928	NL	.281	.344	.397	.741	.013	0.080	.071
1929	AL	.284	.349	.407	.756	.012	0.084	.075
1929	NL	.294	.357	.426	.783	.016	0.082	.071
1930	AL	.288	.351	.421	.772	.014	0.082	.085
1930	NL	.303	.360	.448	.808	.018	0.075	.079
1931	AL	.278	.344	.396	.740	.012	0.086	.083
1931	NL	.277	.334	.387	.721	.010	0.074	.081
1932	AL	.277	.346	.404	.750	.015	0.090	.083
1932	NL	.276	.328	.396	.724	.014	0.066	.081
1933	AL	.273	.342	.390	.732	.013	0.091	.081
1933	NL	.266	.317	.362	.679	.010	0.064	.076
1934	AL	.279	.351	.399	.750	.014	0.095	.088
1934	NL	.279	.333	.394	.727	.014	0.069	.088
1935	AL	.280	.351	.402	.753	.014	0.094	.081
1935	NL	.277	.331	.391	.722	.014	0.069	.085
1936	AL	.289	.363	.421	.784	.015	0.098	.081
1936	NL	.278	.335	.386	.722	.013	0.074	.087
1937	AL	.281	.355	.415	.770	.016	0.098	.091
1937	NL	.272	.332	.382	.714	.013	0.078	.096
1938	AL	.281	.358	.415	.773	.018	0.102	.088
1938	NL	.267	.329	.376	.705	.013	0.079	.087
1939	AL	.279	.352	.407	.759	.016	0.096	.089
1939	NL	.272	.335	.386	.721	.014	0.081	.088
1940	AL	.271	.342	.407	.750	.018	0.093	.098
1940	NL	.264	.326	.376	.702	.014	0.079	.091
1941	AL	.266	.341	.389	.730	.015	0.097	.091
1941	NL	.258	.326	.361	.688	.012	0.087	.092
1942	AL	.257	.329	.357	.686	.011	0.092	.088
1942	NL	.249	.318	.343	.661	.011	0.087	.089
1943	AL	.249	.322	.341	.663	.010	0.091	.095
1943	NL	.258	.324	.347	.672	.009	0.085	.085
1944	AL	.260	.325	.353	.678	.010	0.083	.089
1944	NL	.261	.326	.363	.689	.012	0.083	.082
1945	AL	.255	.325	.346	.671	.009	0.089	.090
1945	NL	.265	.333	.364	.696	.012	0.086	.080
1946	AL	.256	.328	.364	.692	.014	0.093	.110
1946	NL	.256	.329	.355	.684	.012	0.093	.094
1947	AL	.256	.333	.364	.698	.014	0.100	.097
1947	NL	.265	.338	.390	.729	.019	0.094	.095
1948	AL	.266	.349	.382	.731	.015	0.108	.089
1948	NL	.261	.333	.383	.715	.018	0.093	.100
1949	AL	.263	.353	.379	.732	.016	0.117	.091
1949	NL	.262	.334	.389	.723	.019	0.092	.096
1950	AL	.271	.356	.402	.759	.020	0.111	.094
1950	NL	.261	.336	.401	.737	.023	0.095	.105
1951	AL	.262	.342	.381	.723	.017	0.102	.096
1951	NL	.260	.331	.390	.721	.021	0.091	.099
1952	AL	.253	.330	.365	.695	.017	0.097	.108
1952	NL	.253	.323	.374	.697	.019	0.088	.112
1953	AL	.262	.336	.383	.720	.018	0.093	.103
1953	NL	.266	.335	.411	.747	.025	0.089	.111
1954	AL	.257	.331	.373	.704	.017	0.097	.107
1954	NL	.265	.335	.407	.742	.023	0.092	.107
1955	AL	.258	.336	.381	.717	.020	0.100	.113
1955	NL	.259	.328	.407	.735	.027	0.090	.115
1956	AL	.260	.341	.394	.735	.022	0.104	.121
1956	NL	.256	.321	.401	.722	.026	0.085	.121
1957	AL	.255	.326	.382	.708	.022	0.091	.122
1957	NL	.260	.322	.400	.722	.025	0.081	.128
1958	AL	.254	.322	.383	.705	.023	0.087	.129
1958	NL	.262	.328	.405	.733	.025	0.086	.131
1959	AL	.253	.323	.384	.707	.023	0.089	.128
1959	NL	.260	.325	.400	.725	.024	0.084	.138
1960	AL	.255	.328	.388	.716	.023	0.093	.126
1960	NL	.255	.319	.388	.707	.022	0.083	.145
1961	AL	.256	.329	.395	.724	.025	0.095	.134
1961	NL	.262	.327	.405	.732	.025	0.085	.140
1962	AL	.255	.325	.394	.719	.025	0.091	.137
1962	NL	.261	.327	.393	.720	.023	0.085	.145
1963	AL	.247	.312	.380	.692	.024	0.082	.150
1963	NL	.245	.306	.364	.669	.020	0.075	.157
1964	AL	.247	.315	.382	.696	.025	0.085	.161
1964	NL	.254	.311	.374	.685	.020	0.072	.151
1965	AL	.242	.311	.369	.680	.022	0.087	.158
1965	NL	.249	.311	.374	.685	.021	0.077	.157
1966	AL	.240	.306	.369	.674	.023	0.082	.157
1966	NL	.256	.313	.384	.697	.022	0.072	.152
1967	AL	.236	.303	.351	.654	.020	0.082	.164
1967	NL	.249	.310	.363	.673	.018	0.076	.155
1968	AL	.230	.297	.339	.637	.018	0.081	.160
1968	NL	.243	.300	.341	.641	.015	0.070	.156
1969	AL	.246	.321	.369	.690	.022	0.095	.146
1969	NL	.250	.319	.369	.688	.020	0.087	.157
1970	AL	.250	.322	.379	.701	.024	0.092	.148
1970	NL	.258	.329	.392	.721	.022	0.092	.152
1971	AL	.247	.317	.364	.681	.020	0.089	.143
1971	NL	.252	.316	.366	.683	.019	0.082	.143
1972	AL	.239	.306	.343	.649	.017	0.083	.147
1972	NL	.248	.315	.365	.680	.019	0.085	.149
1973	AL	.259	.328	.381	.710	.021	0.089	.132
1973	NL	.254	.322	.376	.698	.021	0.087	.141
1974	AL	.258	.323	.371	.694	.019	0.083	.129
1974	NL	.255	.326	.367	.693	.017	0.091	.133
1975	AL	.258	.328	.379	.707	.020	0.090	.129
1975	NL	.257	.327	.369	.696	.016	0.090	.131
1976	AL	.256	.320	.361	.681	.015	0.083	.124
1976	NL	.255	.320	.361	.681	.015	0.085	.130
1977	AL	.266	.330	.405	.735	.023	0.084	.130
1977	NL	.262	.328	.396	.724	.022	0.087	.140
1978	AL	.261	.326	.385	.711	.020	0.085	.118
1978	NL	.254	.320	.372	.692	.017	0.086	.135
1979	AL	.270	.334	.408	.743	.023	0.086	.117
1979	NL	.261	.325	.385	.709	.019	0.084	.134
1980	AL	.269	.331	.399	.731	.021	0.083	.119
1980	NL	.259	.320	.374	.695	.017	0.081	.133
1981	AL	.256	.321	.373	.693	.019	0.084	.121
1981	NL	.255	.319	.364	.683	.015	0.084	.129
1982	AL	.264	.328	.402	.730	.024	0.084	.126
1982	NL	.258	.319	.373	.692	.018	0.080	.139
1983	AL	.266	.328	.401	.728	.022	0.082	.127
1983	NL	.255	.322	.376	.698	.019	0.087	.145
1984	AL	.264	.326	.398	.724	.023	0.083	.133
1984	NL	.255	.319	.369	.688	.017	0.083	.148
1985	AL	.261	.327	.406	.733	.025	0.086	.136
1985	NL	.252	.319	.374	.692	.019	0.086	.145
1986	AL	.262	.330	.408	.737	.026	0.088	.150
1986	NL	.253	.322	.380	.702	.021	0.089	.157
1987	AL	.265	.333	.425	.759	.030	0.089	.154
1987	NL	.261	.328	.404	.732	.024	0.088	.156
1988	AL	.259	.324	.391	.715	.022	0.084	.143
1988	NL	.248	.310	.363	.673	.017	0.079	.151
1989	AL	.261	.326	.384	.709	.020	0.084	.143
1989	NL	.246	.312	.365	.678	.018	0.085	.154
1990	AL	.259	.327	.388	.715	.021	0.088	.147
1990	NL	.256	.321	.383	.704	.021	0.084	.151
1991	AL	.260	.329	.395	.724	.022	0.089	.148
1991	NL	.250	.317	.373	.689	.019	0.085	.156
1992	AL	.259	.328	.385	.713	.020	0.089	.140
1992	NL	.252	.315	.368	.684	.017	0.081	.154
1993	AL	.267	.337	.408	.745	.024	0.091	.148
1993	NL	.264	.327	.399	.726	.022	0.082	.154
1994	AL	.273	.345	.434	.779	.028	0.095	.154
1994	NL	.267	.333	.415	.747	.025	0.084	.164
1995	AL	.270	.344	.427	.771	.027	0.096	.154
1995	NL	.263	.331	.408	.739	.025	0.086	.171
1996	AL	.277	.350	.445	.795	.031	0.096	.157
1996	NL	.262	.330	.408	.738	.025	0.086	.174
1997	AL	.271	.340	.428	.768	.028	0.090	.166
1997	NL	.263	.333	.410	.744	.025	0.088	.175
1998	AL	.271	.340	.432	.771	.028	0.088	.164
1998	NL	.262	.331	.410	.741	.026	0.087	.174
1999	AL	.275	.347	.439	.786	.030	0.094	.158
1999	NL	.268	.342	.429	.771	.029	0.095	.169
2000	AL	.276	.349	.443	.792	.030	0.096	.157
2000	NL	.266	.342	.432	.773	.030	0.096	.171
2001	AL	.267	.334	.428	.762	.029	0.083	.166
2001	NL	.261	.331	.425	.756	.030	0.086	.180
2002	AL	.264	.331	.424	.755	.028	0.084	.163
2002	NL	.259	.331	.410	.741	.026	0.090	.173
2003	AL	.267	.333	.428	.761	.029	0.082	.158
2003	NL	.262	.332	.417	.749	.027	0.087	.170
2004	AL	.270	.338	.433	.771	.029	0.085	.164
2004	NL	.263	.333	.423	.756	.028	0.087	.173

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