With new stadiums in Philadelphia and San Diego now one year old, can we expect a fall-off in attendance in 2005? And will that mean tighter payrolls for the Phils and Padres?

Well, here are all of the ballpark changes in the last 25 years (except for the Expos splitting time in San Juan, which doesn’t fit the model):

Note that the average attendance increased 33% after a new stadium was opened. However, you'll also notice that the attendance in the subsequent year fell by 9%.

Here are the numbers for the Phils and Pod People with projections for next year using the figure above (9% decrease):

What will such a decrease mean to these teams bottom line? Here's a conservative estimate using the lowest price of admission from each of their team sites:

Again, this is based on the low price as published on the team sites. The lost revenue may not come from just the cheapy seats. And the teams will probably raise ticket prices for 2005. However, there's a good indication that they will have a significant loss in revenue. I know I would miss four million dollars of I lost it. And keep in mind that this doesn't include the money from parking, concessions, etc. that those lost fans will no longer generate.

If you don’t think these two clubs aren't anticipating a decrease in attendance, than you're fooling yourself. Maybe the Padres can afford it with a young team that promising to keep improving, but the Phils will be taking on more salary just to retain their base as the large contracts they've signed in the last couple of years start to mature. Maybe those crazy Jim Thome-to-the-Bronx rumors I heard aren't too remote after all. The Phils brass would love to replace Thome's salary with Ryan Howard's, and they will have Bill Conlin to sell the idea.