Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Earlier today, I took a look at the number of rookies per team throughout baseball history to see if it had anything to do with that team's record. I found that the percentage of rookies on a team correlated poorly to team success (.335 correlation coefficient). However, I said that a more thorough investigation based on team experience was in order. So here goes…
The first hurdle was to determine what team experience meant. I mean, a team may have a wily old veteran on the bench mentoring a rookie at the same position in the starting lineup. If you average the two, you would end up somewhere in between, even though the veteran may only play a third as much as the rook.
My solution was to weight each player's experience by the number of games played and then normalize by the total number of team games. The idea is to represent the experience for the team on the field on a given day. I know that this treats a pinch-hitter like a starter who plays a full game and that it under-represents modern starting pitchers, but I'm OK with that. I know Baseball Reference weights by games and at-bats, but then you separate pitchers and position players. Also, it under-represents Barry Bonds (because of the walks). I like the idea of the "team on the field" as the basis
Anyway, I ran the numbers for experience as well as player age (weighted in a similar fashion). Here are the most experienced teams in baseball history:
Team | Lg | Yr | Tot # | # Rookies | Vets | Avg Wt Exp | Avg Wt Age | Age-Exp | W PCT |
Baltimore Orioles | AL | 1998 | 48 | 9 | 39 | 10.245 | 32.856 | 22.611 | .488 |
California Angels | AL | 1982 | 37 | 3 | 34 | 9.670 | 31.772 | 22.102 | .574 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1973 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 9.594 | 31.114 | 21.520 | .525 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1983 | 44 | 8 | 36 | 9.355 | 31.550 | 22.195 | .556 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1988 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 9.095 | 31.707 | 22.612 | .543 |
Baltimore Orioles | AL | 1999 | 43 | 6 | 37 | 9.093 | 32.513 | 23.420 | .481 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1981 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 9.046 | 30.578 | 21.532 | .551 |
Seattle Mariners | AL | 2000 | 37 | 3 | 34 | 9.032 | 30.983 | 21.951 | .562 |
California Angels | AL | 1986 | 38 | 8 | 30 | 9.014 | 31.528 | 22.514 | .568 |
Baltimore Orioles | AL | 2000 | 50 | 11 | 39 | 8.867 | 31.768 | 22.902 | .457 |
California Angels | AL | 1983 | 39 | 4 | 35 | 8.818 | 31.130 | 22.313 | .432 |
California Angels | AL | 1984 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 8.800 | 31.298 | 22.497 | .500 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1982 | 47 | 5 | 42 | 8.729 | 30.190 | 21.461 | .488 |
Seattle Mariners | AL | 2003 | 37 | 5 | 32 | 8.675 | 31.769 | 23.094 | .574 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1983 | 40 | 4 | 36 | 8.664 | 30.433 | 21.769 | .562 |
California Angels | AL | 1985 | 41 | 10 | 31 | 8.664 | 31.227 | 22.564 | .556 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1979 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 8.647 | 30.512 | 21.865 | .519 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1972 | 44 | 10 | 34 | 8.597 | 30.265 | 21.668 | .551 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1982 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 8.578 | 30.938 | 22.360 | .549 |
Cleveland Indians | AL | 2001 | 44 | 5 | 39 | 8.564 | 30.652 | 22.088 | .562 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1981 | 36 | 3 | 33 | 8.549 | 31.008 | 22.459 | .551 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1988 | 41 | 3 | 38 | 8.509 | 30.506 | 21.996 | .528 |
San Francisco Giants | NL | 2003 | 46 | 9 | 37 | 8.490 | 31.731 | 23.242 | .621 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1979 | 47 | 8 | 39 | 8.452 | 30.129 | 21.677 | .556 |
Chicago White Sox | AL | 1960 | 39 | 2 | 37 | 8.440 | 31.418 | 22.979 | .565 |
Hmm, I thought that we were told that players today are rushed to the majors. It seems like there are a bunch of old dolts in the majors today. Let's check age next:
Team | Lg | Yr | Tot # | # Rookies | Vets | Avg Wt Exp | Avg Wt Age | Age-Exp | W PCT |
Baltimore Orioles | AL | 1998 | 48 | 9 | 39 | 10.245 | 32.856 | 22.611 | .488 |
Baltimore Orioles | AL | 1999 | 43 | 6 | 37 | 9.093 | 32.513 | 23.420 | .481 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1945 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 5.931 | 32.085 | 26.154 | .575 |
California Angels | AL | 1982 | 37 | 3 | 34 | 9.670 | 31.772 | 22.102 | .574 |
Seattle Mariners | AL | 2003 | 37 | 5 | 32 | 8.675 | 31.769 | 23.094 | .574 |
Baltimore Orioles | AL | 2000 | 50 | 11 | 39 | 8.867 | 31.768 | 22.902 | .457 |
San Francisco Giants | NL | 2003 | 46 | 9 | 37 | 8.490 | 31.731 | 23.242 | .621 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1988 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 9.095 | 31.707 | 22.612 | .543 |
San Francisco Giants | NL | 2002 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 7.998 | 31.669 | 23.672 | .590 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1983 | 44 | 8 | 36 | 9.355 | 31.550 | 22.195 | .556 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | 2002 | 42 | 2 | 40 | 7.666 | 31.535 | 23.869 | .605 |
California Angels | AL | 1986 | 38 | 8 | 30 | 9.014 | 31.528 | 22.514 | .568 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1944 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 5.467 | 31.448 | 25.981 | .571 |
Chicago White Sox | AL | 1945 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 5.107 | 31.440 | 26.333 | .477 |
Chicago White Sox | AL | 1960 | 39 | 2 | 37 | 8.440 | 31.418 | 22.979 | .565 |
Chicago Cubs | NL | 2003 | 42 | 4 | 38 | 7.972 | 31.356 | 23.384 | .543 |
Chicago White Sox | AL | 1908 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 7.723 | 31.316 | 23.593 | .579 |
California Angels | AL | 1984 | 37 | 4 | 33 | 8.800 | 31.298 | 22.497 | .500 |
California Angels | AL | 1985 | 41 | 10 | 31 | 8.664 | 31.227 | 22.564 | .556 |
San Francisco Giants | NL | 2001 | 41 | 5 | 36 | 7.361 | 31.223 | 23.862 | .556 |
Seattle Mariners | AL | 2001 | 35 | 4 | 31 | 8.192 | 31.191 | 22.999 | .716 |
Boston Pilgrims | AL | 1905 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 7.372 | 31.149 | 23.777 | .513 |
New York Yankees | AL | 2000 | 46 | 5 | 41 | 7.829 | 31.139 | 23.310 | .540 |
California Angels | AL | 1983 | 39 | 4 | 35 | 8.818 | 31.130 | 22.313 | .432 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | 2001 | 47 | 10 | 37 | 7.816 | 31.121 | 23.304 | .568 |
The problem is that neither correlates well to winning (0.3490 for team experience and 0.2157 for age). The next thing that occurred to me is to look at age minus experience, that is the debut age (in theory) of the players. One would expect that the younger a player debuts the better he is:
Team | Lg | Yr | Tot # | # Rookies | Vets | Avg Wt Exp | Avg Wt Age | Age-Exp | W PCT |
New York Metropolitans | AA | 1883 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 2.391 | 28.856 | 26.465 | .563 |
Chicago White Sox | AL | 1945 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 5.107 | 31.440 | 26.333 | .477 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1945 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 5.931 | 32.085 | 26.154 | .575 |
New York Mutuals | NA | 1871 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.000 | 26.094 | 26.094 | .485 |
Boston Red Sox | AL | 1945 | 37 | 10 | 27 | 4.239 | 30.305 | 26.066 | .461 |
Philadelphia Athletics | NA | 1871 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.000 | 25.996 | 25.996 | .750 |
Detroit Tigers | AL | 1944 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 5.467 | 31.448 | 25.981 | .571 |
Kansas City Packers | FL | 1914 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 1.988 | 27.935 | 25.947 | .444 |
Chicago White Sox | AL | 1944 | 29 | 4 | 25 | 4.424 | 30.360 | 25.936 | .461 |
Buffalo Buffeds | FL | 1914 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 2.667 | 28.593 | 25.926 | .530 |
Kansas City Packers | FL | 1915 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 3.728 | 29.653 | 25.926 | .529 |
Pittsburgh Rebels | FL | 1914 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 3.078 | 28.970 | 25.892 | .427 |
Philadelphia Athletics | AL | 1954 | 38 | 15 | 23 | 2.742 | 28.616 | 25.874 | .331 |
Baltimore Terrapins | FL | 1914 | 28 | 10 | 18 | 4.194 | 30.028 | 25.834 | .545 |
Rochester Broncos | AA | 1890 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 2.475 | 28.253 | 25.778 | .500 |
Philadelphia Athletics | AL | 1945 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 3.557 | 29.314 | 25.757 | .347 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1944 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 3.819 | 29.454 | 25.635 | .539 |
New York Metropolitans | AA | 1885 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 3.884 | 29.510 | 25.626 | .407 |
Philadelphia Blue Jays | NL | 1944 | 40 | 14 | 26 | 2.595 | 28.219 | 25.624 | .399 |
New York Metropolitans | AA | 1884 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 3.155 | 28.726 | 25.570 | .701 |
Boston Red Sox | AL | 1930 | 34 | 7 | 27 | 2.874 | 28.418 | 25.544 | .338 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1945 | 46 | 15 | 31 | 4.443 | 29.982 | 25.540 | .299 |
Philadelphia Athletics | AL | 1943 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 3.385 | 28.923 | 25.538 | .318 |
New York Yankees | AL | 1945 | 32 | 3 | 29 | 4.701 | 30.237 | 25.536 | .533 |
Cleveland Blues | AL | 1901 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 2.928 | 28.438 | 25.510 | .397 |
Well, that's an odd mix. There are a lot of teams from World War II. Anyway, the correlation coefficient is not much better than for age (-0.2179) though teams with players who debut younger do do slightly better.
Finally the completist in me wants to show you the other end of the spectrum for each category. Here are the least experienced teams (ignoring the 1871 NA teams, the first major-league teams):
Team | Lg | Yr | Tot # | # Rookies | Vets | Avg Wt Exp | Avg Wt Age | Age-Exp | W PCT |
Middletown Mansfields | NA | 1872 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.028 | 21.078 | 21.050 | .208 |
St. Paul Apostles | UA | 1884 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0.110 | 23.567 | 23.457 | .250 |
Milwaukee Brewers | UA | 1884 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0.138 | 23.367 | 23.229 | .667 |
Altoona Mountain City | UA | 1884 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 0.142 | 22.761 | 22.620 | .240 |
Brooklyn Atlantics | NA | 1872 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 0.159 | 21.271 | 21.112 | .243 |
Brooklyn Eckfords | NA | 1872 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 0.250 | 24.786 | 24.536 | .103 |
Baltimore Marylands | NA | 1873 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 0.370 | 22.500 | 22.130 | .000 |
St. Louis Red Stockings | NA | 1875 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.439 | 22.773 | 22.334 | .211 |
Washington Nationals | NA | 1872 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0.444 | 21.712 | 21.268 | .000 |
Syracuse Stars | NL | 1879 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 0.467 | 23.594 | 23.127 | .314 |
Washington Nationals | UA | 1884 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 0.470 | 24.788 | 24.318 | .190 |
Wilmington Quicksteps | UA | 1884 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0.484 | 25.439 | 24.956 | .111 |
Washington Nationals | AA | 1884 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 0.497 | 23.532 | 23.035 | .420 |
Kansas City Cowboys | UA | 1884 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 0.499 | 23.816 | 23.316 | .203 |
Indianapolis Hoosiers | AA | 1884 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 0.542 | 23.510 | 22.968 | .271 |
Baltimore Orioles | AA | 1882 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 0.556 | 26.055 | 25.500 | .260 |
Toledo Blue Stockings | AA | 1884 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 0.572 | 24.130 | 23.559 | .442 |
New Haven Elm Citys | NA | 1875 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 0.710 | 22.679 | 21.970 | .149 |
New York Mutuals | NA | 1872 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0.710 | 24.934 | 24.223 | .630 |
Louisville Eclipse | AA | 1882 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 0.725 | 24.427 | 23.702 | .525 |
Elizabeth Resolutes | NA | 1873 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0.761 | 24.732 | 23.971 | .087 |
Troy Haymakers | NA | 1872 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 0.831 | 25.582 | 24.751 | .600 |
Philadelphia Keystones | UA | 1884 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 0.847 | 23.185 | 22.339 | .313 |
Washington Olympics | NA | 1872 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 0.866 | 23.827 | 22.961 | .222 |
Cleveland Forest Citys | NA | 1872 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 0.884 | 23.904 | 23.020 | .273 |
The youngest teams:
Team | Lg | Yr | Tot # | # Rookies | Vets | Avg Wt Exp | Avg Wt Age | Age-Exp | W PCT |
Middletown Mansfields | NA | 1872 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.028 | 21.078 | 21.050 | .208 |
Brooklyn Atlantics | NA | 1872 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 0.159 | 21.271 | 21.112 | .243 |
Fort Wayne Kekiongas | NA | 1871 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0.000 | 21.340 | 21.340 | .368 |
Washington Nationals | NA | 1872 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0.444 | 21.712 | 21.268 | .000 |
Washington Blue Legs | NA | 1873 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1.231 | 21.931 | 20.700 | .205 |
Richmond Virginians | AA | 1884 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 0.892 | 21.932 | 21.040 | .286 |
Cleveland Forest Citys | NA | 1871 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.000 | 21.989 | 21.989 | .345 |
Rockford Forest Citys | NA | 1871 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.000 | 22.084 | 22.084 | .160 |
Baltimore Marylands | NA | 1873 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 0.370 | 22.500 | 22.130 | .000 |
New Haven Elm Citys | NA | 1875 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 0.710 | 22.679 | 21.970 | .149 |
Altoona Mountain City | UA | 1884 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 0.142 | 22.761 | 22.620 | .240 |
St. Louis Red Stockings | NA | 1875 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.439 | 22.773 | 22.334 | .211 |
Troy Haymakers | NA | 1871 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.000 | 23.107 | 23.107 | .464 |
Philadelphia Keystones | UA | 1884 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 0.847 | 23.185 | 22.339 | .313 |
Worcester Ruby Legs | NL | 1880 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 0.898 | 23.211 | 22.314 | .482 |
Milwaukee Brewers | UA | 1884 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0.138 | 23.367 | 23.229 | .667 |
Cleveland Blues | NL | 1879 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 1.593 | 23.403 | 21.810 | .329 |
Indianapolis Blues | NL | 1878 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 1.739 | 23.462 | 21.723 | .400 |
Indianapolis Hoosiers | AA | 1884 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 0.542 | 23.510 | 22.968 | .271 |
Cleveland Blues | NL | 1880 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 1.740 | 23.526 | 21.786 | .560 |
Washington Nationals | AA | 1884 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 0.497 | 23.532 | 23.035 | .420 |
St. Paul Apostles | UA | 1884 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0.110 | 23.567 | 23.457 | .250 |
Syracuse Stars | NL | 1879 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 0.467 | 23.594 | 23.127 | .314 |
Milwaukee Grays | NL | 1878 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1.192 | 23.612 | 22.420 | .250 |
Chicago White Stockings | NL | 1880 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 2.502 | 23.615 | 21.113 | .798 |
Now the youngest debut teams:
Team | Lg | Yr | Tot # | # Rookies | Vets | Avg Wt Exp | Avg Wt Age | Age-Exp | W PCT |
Boston Red Caps | NL | 1878 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 5.450 | 26.128 | 20.678 | .683 |
Washington Blue Legs | NA | 1873 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1.231 | 21.931 | 20.700 | .205 |
New York Giants | NL | 1892 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 6.999 | 27.736 | 20.737 | .470 |
New York Giants | NL | 1893 | 28 | 4 | 24 | 6.319 | 27.081 | 20.762 | .515 |
Cincinnati Reds | NL | 1879 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 3.858 | 24.686 | 20.828 | .538 |
Cincinnati Reds | NL | 1878 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3.276 | 24.111 | 20.835 | .617 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | 1893 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 5.627 | 26.473 | 20.847 | .628 |
Chicago White Stockings | NL | 1885 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 6.300 | 27.148 | 20.848 | .777 |
Chicago White Stockings | NL | 1883 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 4.881 | 25.755 | 20.874 | .602 |
New York Giants | NL | 1894 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 5.932 | 26.833 | 20.900 | .667 |
Chicago White Stockings | NL | 1884 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 5.407 | 26.321 | 20.914 | .554 |
Philadelphia Athletics | AL | 1914 | 39 | 10 | 29 | 4.766 | 25.682 | 20.917 | .651 |
Boston Red Sox | AL | 1919 | 30 | 2 | 28 | 6.381 | 27.324 | 20.944 | .482 |
Providence Grays | NL | 1878 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 4.882 | 25.834 | 20.952 | .550 |
Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 1897 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 5.824 | 26.776 | 20.953 | .417 |
Cleveland Indians | AL | 1922 | 46 | 16 | 30 | 7.922 | 28.895 | 20.973 | .506 |
Chicago White Stockings | NL | 1886 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 6.618 | 27.606 | 20.988 | .726 |
St. Louis Cardinals | NL | 1976 | 40 | 8 | 32 | 6.034 | 27.030 | 20.996 | .444 |
Philadelphia Athletics | AL | 1915 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 4.806 | 25.822 | 21.016 | .283 |
Pittsburgh Alleghenys | NL | 1888 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 4.773 | 25.804 | 21.031 | .493 |
Richmond Virginians | AA | 1884 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 0.892 | 21.932 | 21.040 | .286 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | 1891 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 5.243 | 26.290 | 21.046 | .407 |
Middletown Mansfields | NA | 1872 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.028 | 21.078 | 21.050 | .208 |
New York Mets | NL | 1972 | 34 | 7 | 27 | 6.227 | 27.288 | 21.061 | .532 |
Houston Astros | NL | 1971 | 36 | 7 | 29 | 5.169 | 26.236 | 21.067 | .488 |
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