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Are You Experienced? Have You Ever Been Experienced?
2004-09-22 00:56
by Mike Carminati

Earlier today, I took a look at the number of rookies per team throughout baseball history to see if it had anything to do with that team's record. I found that the percentage of rookies on a team correlated poorly to team success (.335 correlation coefficient). However, I said that a more thorough investigation based on team experience was in order. So here goes…

The first hurdle was to determine what team experience meant. I mean, a team may have a wily old veteran on the bench mentoring a rookie at the same position in the starting lineup. If you average the two, you would end up somewhere in between, even though the veteran may only play a third as much as the rook.

My solution was to weight each player's experience by the number of games played and then normalize by the total number of team games. The idea is to represent the experience for the team on the field on a given day. I know that this treats a pinch-hitter like a starter who plays a full game and that it under-represents modern starting pitchers, but I'm OK with that. I know Baseball Reference weights by games and at-bats, but then you separate pitchers and position players. Also, it under-represents Barry Bonds (because of the walks). I like the idea of the "team on the field" as the basis

Anyway, I ran the numbers for experience as well as player age (weighted in a similar fashion). Here are the most experienced teams in baseball history:

TeamLgYrTot ## RookiesVetsAvg Wt ExpAvg Wt AgeAge-ExpW PCT
Baltimore OriolesAL19984893910.24532.85622.611.488
California AngelsAL1982373349.67031.77222.102.574
Detroit TigersAL1973395349.59431.11421.520.525
Philadelphia PhilliesNL1983448369.35531.55022.195.556
Detroit TigersAL1988374339.09531.70722.612.543
Baltimore OriolesAL1999436379.09332.51323.420.481
New York YankeesAL1981395349.04630.57821.532.551
Seattle MarinersAL2000373349.03230.98321.951.562
California AngelsAL1986388309.01431.52822.514.568
Baltimore OriolesAL20005011398.86731.76822.902.457
California AngelsAL1983394358.81831.13022.313.432
California AngelsAL1984374338.80031.29822.497.500
New York YankeesAL1982475428.72930.19021.461.488
Seattle MarinersAL2003375328.67531.76923.094.574
New York YankeesAL1983404368.66430.43321.769.562
California AngelsAL19854110318.66431.22722.564.556
Philadelphia PhilliesNL1979382368.64730.51221.865.519
Detroit TigersAL19724410348.59730.26521.668.551
Philadelphia PhilliesNL1982374338.57830.93822.360.549
Cleveland IndiansAL2001445398.56430.65222.088.562
Philadelphia PhilliesNL1981363338.54931.00822.459.551
New York YankeesAL1988413388.50930.50621.996.528
San Francisco GiantsNL2003469378.49031.73123.242.621
New York YankeesAL1979478398.45230.12921.677.556
Chicago White SoxAL1960392378.44031.41822.979.565

Hmm, I thought that we were told that players today are rushed to the majors. It seems like there are a bunch of old dolts in the majors today. Let's check age next:

TeamLgYrTot ## RookiesVetsAvg Wt ExpAvg Wt AgeAge-ExpW PCT
Baltimore OriolesAL19984893910.24532.85622.611.488
Baltimore OriolesAL1999436379.09332.51323.420.481
Detroit TigersAL1945378295.93132.08526.154.575
California AngelsAL1982373349.67031.77222.102.574
Seattle MarinersAL2003375328.67531.76923.094.574
Baltimore OriolesAL20005011398.86731.76822.902.457
San Francisco GiantsNL2003469378.49031.73123.242.621
Detroit TigersAL1988374339.09531.70722.612.543
San Francisco GiantsNL2002382367.99831.66923.672.590
Philadelphia PhilliesNL1983448369.35531.55022.195.556
Arizona DiamondbacksNL2002422407.66631.53523.869.605
California AngelsAL1986388309.01431.52822.514.568
Detroit TigersAL1944327255.46731.44825.981.571
Chicago White SoxAL1945272255.10731.44026.333.477
Chicago White SoxAL1960392378.44031.41822.979.565
Chicago CubsNL2003424387.97231.35623.384.543
Chicago White SoxAL1908243217.72331.31623.593.579
California AngelsAL1984374338.80031.29822.497.500
California AngelsAL19854110318.66431.22722.564.556
San Francisco GiantsNL2001415367.36131.22323.862.556
Seattle MarinersAL2001354318.19231.19122.999.716
Boston PilgrimsAL1905279187.37231.14923.777.513
New York YankeesAL2000465417.82931.13923.310.540
California AngelsAL1983394358.81831.13022.313.432
Arizona DiamondbacksNL20014710377.81631.12123.304.568

The problem is that neither correlates well to winning (0.3490 for team experience and 0.2157 for age). The next thing that occurred to me is to look at age minus experience, that is the debut age (in theory) of the players. One would expect that the younger a player debuts the better he is:

TeamLgYrTot ## RookiesVetsAvg Wt ExpAvg Wt AgeAge-ExpW PCT
New York MetropolitansAA188313492.39128.85626.465.563
Chicago White SoxAL1945272255.10731.44026.333.477
Detroit TigersAL1945378295.93132.08526.154.575
New York MutualsNA1871111100.00026.09426.094.485
Boston Red SoxAL19453710274.23930.30526.066.461
Philadelphia AthleticsNA1871131300.00025.99625.996.750
Detroit TigersAL1944327255.46731.44825.981.571
Kansas City PackersFL19142413111.98827.93525.947.444
Chicago White SoxAL1944294254.42430.36025.936.461
Buffalo BuffedsFL1914319222.66728.59325.926.530
Kansas City PackersFL1915222203.72829.65325.926.529
Pittsburgh RebelsFL1914319223.07828.97025.892.427
Philadelphia AthleticsAL19543815232.74228.61625.874.331
Baltimore TerrapinsFL19142810184.19430.02825.834.545
Rochester BroncosAA1890207132.47528.25325.778.500
Philadelphia AthleticsAL1945378293.55729.31425.757.347
New York YankeesAL19443211213.81929.45425.635.539
New York MetropolitansAA1885193163.88429.51025.626.407
Philadelphia Blue JaysNL19444014262.59528.21925.624.399
New York MetropolitansAA1884153123.15528.72625.570.701
Boston Red SoxAL1930347272.87428.41825.544.338
Philadelphia PhilliesNL19454615314.44329.98225.540.299
Philadelphia AthleticsAL19434422223.38528.92325.538.318
New York YankeesAL1945323294.70130.23725.536.533
Cleveland BluesAL19013515202.92828.43825.510.397

Well, that's an odd mix. There are a lot of teams from World War II. Anyway, the correlation coefficient is not much better than for age (-0.2179) though teams with players who debut younger do do slightly better.

Finally the completist in me wants to show you the other end of the spectrum for each category. Here are the least experienced teams (ignoring the 1871 NA teams, the first major-league teams):

TeamLgYrTot ## RookiesVetsAvg Wt ExpAvg Wt AgeAge-ExpW PCT
Middletown MansfieldsNA1872121110.02821.07821.050.208
St. Paul ApostlesUA1884111010.11023.56723.457.250
Milwaukee BrewersUA1884121020.13823.36723.229.667
Altoona Mountain CityUA1884171610.14222.76122.620.240
Brooklyn AtlanticsNA1872221840.15921.27121.112.243
Brooklyn EckfordsNA1872262060.25024.78624.536.103
Baltimore MarylandsNA1873191540.37022.50022.130.000
St. Louis Red StockingsNA1875121110.43922.77322.334.211
Washington NationalsNA187214950.44421.71221.268.000
Syracuse StarsNL1879181260.46723.59423.127.314
Washington NationalsUA18845138130.47024.78824.318.190
Wilmington QuickstepsUA1884201550.48425.43924.956.111
Washington NationalsAA1884251870.49723.53223.035.420
Kansas City CowboysUA18845039110.49923.81623.316.203
Indianapolis HoosiersAA18843525100.54223.51022.968.271
Baltimore OriolesAA1882231760.55626.05525.500.260
Toledo Blue StockingsAA1884211380.57224.13023.559.442
New Haven Elm CitysNA1875251870.71022.67921.970.149
New York MutualsNA187211380.71024.93424.223.630
Louisville EclipseAA1882211740.72524.42723.702.525
Elizabeth ResolutesNA187316970.76124.73223.971.087
Troy HaymakersNA187212390.83125.58224.751.600
Philadelphia KeystonesUA18842918110.84723.18522.339.313
Washington OlympicsNA1872133100.86623.82722.961.222
Cleveland Forest CitysNA1872122100.88423.90423.020.273

The youngest teams:

TeamLgYrTot ## RookiesVetsAvg Wt ExpAvg Wt AgeAge-ExpW PCT
Middletown MansfieldsNA1872121110.02821.07821.050.208
Brooklyn AtlanticsNA1872221840.15921.27121.112.243
Fort Wayne KekiongasNA1871181800.00021.34021.340.368
Washington NationalsNA187214950.44421.71221.268.000
Washington Blue LegsNA187315691.23121.93120.700.205
Richmond VirginiansAA1884191540.89221.93221.040.286
Cleveland Forest CitysNA1871131300.00021.98921.989.345
Rockford Forest CitysNA1871111100.00022.08422.084.160
Baltimore MarylandsNA1873191540.37022.50022.130.000
New Haven Elm CitysNA1875251870.71022.67921.970.149
Altoona Mountain CityUA1884171610.14222.76122.620.240
St. Louis Red StockingsNA1875121110.43922.77322.334.211
Troy HaymakersNA1871121200.00023.10723.107.464
Philadelphia KeystonesUA18842918110.84723.18522.339.313
Worcester Ruby LegsNL1880197120.89823.21122.314.482
Milwaukee BrewersUA1884121020.13823.36723.229.667
Cleveland BluesNL187916971.59323.40321.810.329
Indianapolis BluesNL187813581.73923.46221.723.400
Indianapolis HoosiersAA18843525100.54223.51022.968.271
Cleveland BluesNL1880142121.74023.52621.786.560
Washington NationalsAA1884251870.49723.53223.035.420
St. Paul ApostlesUA1884111010.11023.56723.457.250
Syracuse StarsNL1879181260.46723.59423.127.314
Milwaukee GraysNL187815691.19223.61222.420.250
Chicago White StockingsNL188013492.50223.61521.113.798

Now the youngest debut teams:

TeamLgYrTot ## RookiesVetsAvg Wt ExpAvg Wt AgeAge-ExpW PCT
Boston Red CapsNL1878100105.45026.12820.678.683
Washington Blue LegsNA187315691.23121.93120.700.205
New York GiantsNL1892234196.99927.73620.737.470
New York GiantsNL1893284246.31927.08120.762.515
Cincinnati RedsNL187914593.85824.68620.828.538
Cincinnati RedsNL187811293.27624.11120.835.617
Pittsburgh PiratesNL1893223195.62726.47320.847.628
Chicago White StockingsNL1885192176.30027.14820.848.777
Chicago White StockingsNL1883111104.88125.75520.874.602
New York GiantsNL1894172155.93226.83320.900.667
Chicago White StockingsNL1884217145.40726.32120.914.554
Philadelphia AthleticsAL19143910294.76625.68220.917.651
Boston Red SoxAL1919302286.38127.32420.944.482
Providence GraysNL1878164124.88225.83420.952.550
Philadelphia PhilliesNL1897287215.82426.77620.953.417
Cleveland IndiansAL19224616307.92228.89520.973.506
Chicago White StockingsNL1886152136.61827.60620.988.726
St. Louis CardinalsNL1976408326.03427.03020.996.444
Philadelphia AthleticsAL19155635214.80625.82221.016.283
Pittsburgh AlleghenysNL1888227154.77325.80421.031.493
Richmond VirginiansAA1884191540.89221.93221.040.286
Pittsburgh PiratesNL1891233205.24326.29021.046.407
Middletown MansfieldsNA1872121110.02821.07821.050.208
New York MetsNL1972347276.22727.28821.061.532
Houston AstrosNL1971367295.16926.23621.067.488

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