Other entries in the series:

Competitive Balancing Act I—The King James Version: An Overview of the Literature, Scenes I, II, III, and IV
Competitive Balancing Act II—This Is Pop: Redefining Large- and Small-Market by Population, Scenes I, II, III, and IV
Competitive Balancing Act III—Games Back to Where You Once Belonged
Competitive Balancing Act IV—C'mon Freddy, Everyone into the Poo-el: Reviewing the Available Player Pool
Competitive Balancing Act V—Natural Resources: Attendance and Competitive Balance

A false balance is abomination to the Lord: but a just weight is his delight.

—Bible: Hebrew Proverbs 11:1

The study I did on team records split into first and second halves got me to thinking about exploring competitive balance in the game based on the number of teams that are in the playoff hunt throughout the season.

However, how does one quantify that? At what point during the season do you measure this? Well, the All-Star break was the obvious one given the previous study. That is the traditional start to the playoff hunt, but what other dates would make sense? And what about the sixty-odd seasons before the All-Star game was instituted?

Well, I will belay those issues for the time being and take a look at the halves data we have right now. Perhaps, it will help us approach the second issue of quantifying competitive balance.

Here's a table of the number of games back a team was at the end of the first half and its final position at the end of the season, summed across all of the All-Star seasons (1933-2003). Given that the size of leagues/divisions varied across eras, I have summed all positions from fifth to tenth:

You'll notice that though 65% of first place teams at the break finish the season in first, the odds drop off severely from there. The percentage drops to about 10% at five games back at the break. Then they fall of to around 5% until you get to ten games back. Finally, after twelve games back the percentage of division winners drops to zero.

Therefore, we can say that competitive balance can be measured by the number of teams in those ranges. The ones that are in solidly in the playoff hunt are five games back or fewer at the break. Those that are in the hunt but more on the periphery are more than five games back but no more than ten. And teams that are already out by the break are those that are twelve or more games back.

Let's take a look at how these proposed standards did over time:

So clearly there are more teams in the playoff hunt in the last three decades. However, there are also more division crowns available.

To be continued…