Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
Pretty Singles All Ichiro
2004-08-12 15:23
by Mike Carminati

A single fiber does not make a thread, nor a single tree a forest.

—Ancient Chinese proverb, huh?

Single-mindedness is all very well in cows or baboons; in an animal claiming to belong to the same species as Shakespeare it is simply disgraceful.

—Aldous "Braves New World" Huxley

Mr. Spock: Were I to invoke logic, however, logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

Capt. Kirk: Or the one.

—The first time that Spock died ("I got better!"), in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Mr. Roarke

Steve Bonner's statistical look at Ichiro Suzuki's overreliance on singles that was inspired by my comments in the Joe Morgan chat, inspired me to take an historical look at the subject. Specifically, where does Ichiro fall in the litany of singles hitters? Were the players similar to him productive hitters?

I took the stats that Steve used and tweaked them somewhat. First, I took a look at the players with the highest percentage of hits that were singles. Here are the seasonal highs (based on 250 ABs):

NameYr1BXBH1B%Adj 1B%
Herman Pitz1890470100.00%1.303
Dickey Pearce187474198.67%1.183
Parke Wilson189658296.67%1.242
Morrie Rath191357296.61%1.252
Jimmy McAleer189884396.55%1.198
Bill Hague187555296.49%1.161
Tom Barlow187371395.95%1.148
Mike McGeary187669395.83%1.141
Roy Thomas1900161795.83%1.213
Amos Booth187668395.77%1.140
Jimmy Cooney189243295.56%1.225
Willie Keeler18982061095.37%1.183
Jim Davenport196858395.08%1.277
Willy Miranda195758395.08%1.333
John Humphries188438295.00%1.242
Mike Tresh194357395.00%1.248
Joe Start187272494.74%1.135
Roy Thomas1901140894.59%1.214
Mickey O'Neil192484594.38%1.264
Henry Myers188250394.34%1.232

So where are the players from today? OK (highest since 1990):

NameYr1BXBH1B%Adj 1B%
Joe Girardi199268593.15%1.304
Chad Fonville199582792.13%1.357
Carlos Quintana199368691.89%1.317
Otis Nixon19911081190.76%1.287
Alfredo Griffin199177890.59%1.285
Otis Nixon19981201390.23%1.348
Willie McGee199961789.71%1.350
Walt Weiss199260789.55%1.254
Jorge Fabregas199665889.04%1.321
Brett Butler19911622089.01%1.262
Omar Vizquel199056788.89%1.253
Brett Butler1997861188.66%1.316
Eric Yelding19901151588.46%1.247
Rey Sanchez2003761088.37%1.338
Rafael Belliard199253788.33%1.237
Rey Ordonez199768988.31%1.311
Lenny Harris1992831188.30%1.236
Jason Tyner2001981388.29%1.351
Tom Goodwin19981331888.08%1.316
Otis Nixon19961251788.03%1.306

Not a great group of hitters. So where's Ichiro? He didn't make it:

NameYr1BXBH1B%Adj 1B%
Ichiro Suzuki20011925079.34%1.214
Ichiro Suzuki20021654379.33%1.201
Ichiro Suzuki20031625076.42%1.157

Well, obviously something is lost when you compare across eras. Let's normalize by the seasonal average and re-run the numbers.

Oh, but first, here are the all-time lowest seasonal averages (singles per hits):

NameYr1BXBH1B%Adj 1B%
Barry Bonds20014910731.41%0.481
Matt Williams1989223737.29%0.520
Barry Bonds1999375639.78%0.599
Mark McGwire1999588740.00%0.602
Mark McGwire1998619140.13%0.599
Mark McGwire1995355240.23%0.592
Albert Belle19957010340.46%0.596
Jim Edmonds2003507340.65%0.616
Mark McGwire2001233341.07%0.628
Babe Ruth19218511941.67%0.558
Willie Stargell1973669042.31%0.578
Babe Ruth1920739942.44%0.556
Mark McGwire1997638542.57%0.632
Don Mincher1964293942.65%0.594
Reggie Jackson1969658643.05%0.590
Bob Hamelin1994385043.18%0.642
Dave Kingman1973273543.55%0.595
Willie McCovey1970638044.06%0.617
David Ortiz2003577244.19%0.669
Bobby Estalella2000313944.29%0.675
Mark McGwire1996597344.70%0.663
Carlos Delgado1997617544.85%0.666
Barry Bonds2000668144.90%0.684
Troy Glaus2001668144.90%0.687
Kevin Mitchell1989718744.94%0.626

That's a considerably better group, though definitely not perfect one.

Now, here are the all-time highest adjusted seasonal totals:

NameYr1BXBH1B%Lg 1B%Adj 1B%
Wayne Tolleson198772593.51%67.95%1.376
Chad Fonville199582792.13%67.92%1.357
Jason Tyner2001981388.29%65.36%1.351
Willie McGee199961789.71%66.47%1.350
Otis Nixon19981201390.23%66.95%1.348
Rey Sanchez2003761088.37%66.03%1.338
Luis Castillo20001582287.78%65.64%1.337
Willy Miranda195758395.08%71.32%1.333
Tim Flannery198757690.48%67.95%1.332
Alan Wiggins198764790.14%67.95%1.327
Jorge Fabregas199665889.04%67.38%1.321
Carlos Quintana199368691.89%69.77%1.317
Brett Butler1997861188.66%67.38%1.316
Tom Goodwin19981331888.08%66.95%1.316
Wally Backman198767889.33%67.95%1.315
Dave Roberts2003841386.60%66.03%1.312
Rafael Belliard198857493.44%71.29%1.311
Mike Caruso19991151787.12%66.47%1.311
Jose Valdivielso196053492.98%70.94%1.311
Rey Ordonez199768988.31%67.38%1.311
Homer Bush200055985.94%65.64%1.309
Luis Castillo20021602586.49%66.08%1.309
Pee Wee Reese195769593.24%71.32%1.307
Otis Nixon19961251788.03%67.38%1.306
Wilton Guerrero2000661185.71%65.64%1.306

Oopha, that's a considerably worse list. Any list headed by Wayne Tolleson is truly mining anemic offensive skills across eras well, at least in my book. By the way, the Pee Wee Reese season was his last full one and he registered an adjusted OPS of 46(!).

Yet again Ichiro just missed it.

By the way, here are the adjusted lowest singles to hits seasons:

NameYr1BXBH1B%Lg 1B%Adj 1B%
Barry Bonds20014910731.41%65.36%0.481
Matt Williams1989223737.29%71.74%0.520
Babe Ruth1920739942.44%76.35%0.556
Babe Ruth19218511941.67%74.65%0.558
Willie Stargell1973669042.31%73.20%0.578
Reggie Jackson1969658643.05%72.97%0.590
Mark McGwire1995355240.23%67.92%0.592
Don Mincher1964293942.65%71.84%0.594
Babe Ruth1919647546.04%77.49%0.594
Dave Kingman1973273543.55%73.20%0.595
Albert Belle19957010340.46%67.92%0.596
Barry Bonds1999375639.78%66.47%0.599
Mark McGwire1998619140.13%66.95%0.599
Mark McGwire1999588740.00%66.47%0.602
Jim Edmonds2003507340.65%66.03%0.616
Willie McCovey1970638044.06%71.42%0.617
Babe Ruth1918474849.47%79.85%0.620
Hank Greenberg1946677846.21%74.13%0.623
Lou Gehrig192710111746.33%74.04%0.626
Kevin Mitchell1989718744.94%71.74%0.626
Mark McGwire2001233341.07%65.36%0.628
Mark McGwire1997638542.57%67.38%0.632
Mike Schmidt1975657546.43%73.34%0.633
Rob Deer1992445345.36%71.42%0.635
Babe Ruth1922616747.66%74.62%0.639

Again, I'd say that this list is stronger than the previous one.

Anyway, let's next look at the career singles-to-hits ratios Min. 2000 ABs):

NameAB1BXBHCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Morrie Rath20484744790.98%1.171
Bill Holbert23354384890.12%1.172
Spike Shannon26136106790.10%1.128
Mike McGeary24816156989.91%1.122
Roy Thomas5330138016189.55%1.200
Bobby Mathews24874475788.69%1.141
Mike Tresh31696979188.45%1.202
Al Bridwell416993512987.88%1.121
Maury Wills7588186626887.44%1.211
Dick Harley29016609687.30%1.108
Bob Ganley21294707087.04%1.086
Al Burch21854827287.00%1.094
Ed Hahn20454216386.98%1.089
Otis Nixon5115119918086.95%1.254
Bill Bergen30284486886.82%1.099
Duane Kuiper337979612186.80%1.203
Patsy Donovan7496195529886.77%1.110
Eddie Grant338573011486.49%1.105
Billy Gilbert28166019486.47%1.094
Sandy Alomar Sr.4760101015886.47%1.187
Jimmy Slagle4996115818286.42%1.090
Walter Schmidt24115338686.11%1.133
Miller Huggins5558126920586.09%1.098
Rafael Belliard23014377186.02%1.235
Steve Brady20304557486.01%1.112

That's a pretty bad list—at least the recognizable names are pretty bad. What was saying before about Maury Wills not being a Hall-of-Famer? However, Ichiro is still better than the group (all stats through 2003):

NameAB1BXBHCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Ichiro Suzuki201851914378.40%1.191

By the way here are the lowest career-wise:

NameAB1BXBHCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Mark McGwire618778584148.28%0.705
Carlos Delgado455065863251.01%0.763
Barry Bonds87251327126851.14%0.750
Hank Greenberg519384778152.03%0.715
Babe Ruth83991517135652.80%0.708
Gorman Thomas467755849353.09%0.735
Jim Thome521879369353.36%0.791
Troy Glaus275537232453.45%0.809
Lance Berkman213934729554.05%0.820
Pat Burrell205528123854.14%0.823
Rob Deer388146239154.16%0.771
Albert Belle585393579154.17%0.791
Jeromy Burnitz425258048654.41%0.814
Mike Schmidt83521219101554.57%0.759
Darryl Strawberry541877262955.10%0.795
Dave Kingman667786870755.11%0.763
Greg Vaughn610381366255.12%0.812
Steve Balboni312039531955.32%0.782
Geoff Jenkins234837029355.81%0.844
Jay Buhner501371156255.85%0.817
Manny Ramirez500488769855.96%0.837
Matt Stairs306045535855.97%0.833
Juan Gonzalez6428106483755.97%0.824
Richie Sexson297545435755.98%0.845
Henry Rodriguez303143934555.99%0.832

Now let's look at the adjusted career averages:

NameAB1BXBHCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Juan Pierre207753510383.86%1.275
Luis Castillo334482615184.54%1.273
Otis Nixon5115119918086.95%1.254
Rafael Belliard23014377186.02%1.235
Felix Fermin276761710185.93%1.234
Rey Sanchez4522101522082.19%1.219
Tom Goodwin374182818082.14%1.218
Maury Wills7588186626887.44%1.211
Alan Wiggins22474968585.37%1.207
Duane Kuiper337979612186.80%1.203
Mike Tresh31696979188.45%1.202
Roy Thomas5330138016189.55%1.200
Rey Ordonez305460315479.66%1.200
Jose Vizcaino4692103723981.27%1.197
Bob Lillis23284698085.43%1.195
Wayne Tolleson23224738684.62%1.193
Eric Owens235349312879.39%1.193
Al Newman21074007684.03%1.193
Ichiro Suzuki201851914378.40%1.191
Sandy Alomar Sr.4760101015886.47%1.187
Rodney Scott21324327285.71%1.185
Darren Lewis408182020180.31%1.184
Jose Oquendo320267914282.70%1.179
Ricky Gutierrez352974420178.73%1.177
Jerry Remy4455104118584.91%1.176

Ah, we have an Ichiro sighting, along with a pretty putrid batch of hitters. Here are the adjusted lows for comparison's sake:

NameAB1BXBHCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Mark McGwire618778584148.28%0.705
Babe Ruth83991517135652.80%0.708
Hank Greenberg519384778152.03%0.715
Gorman Thomas467755849353.09%0.735
Barry Bonds87251327126851.14%0.750
Mike Schmidt83521219101554.57%0.759
Carlos Delgado455065863251.01%0.763
Dave Kingman667786870755.11%0.763
Rob Deer388146239154.16%0.771
Lou Gehrig80011531119056.27%0.773
Steve Balboni312039531955.32%0.782
Ralph Kiner520582762457.00%0.788
Willie Stargell7927127995357.30%0.790
Albert Belle585393579154.17%0.791
Jim Thome521879369353.36%0.791
Gavvy Cravath395170043461.73%0.792
Jimmie Foxx81341529111757.79%0.793
Darryl Strawberry541877262955.10%0.795
Harmon Killebrew8147119988757.48%0.795
Ted Williams77061537111757.91%0.804
Ron Kittle270836927956.94%0.805
Willie McCovey8197129192058.39%0.806
Nate Colbert342249433959.30%0.808
Troy Glaus275537232453.45%0.809
Reggie Jackson98641509107558.40%0.810

So Ichiro is historically speaking extremely dependent on getting singles. However, I think there's one thing missing. Ichiro also is extremely reluctant to take a walk, a horrific combination. What if we took the portion of each player's on-base percentage represented by singles and compared it to the portion represented by everything else (extra base hits, walks, and times hit by a pitch)?

Well, here are the career worst according to that stat:

NameAB1Bnon-1BCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Mike McGeary24816159586.62%1.185
Andy Leonard239559914880.19%1.053
Bill Holbert233543810980.07%1.279
John Peters299770017580.00%1.287
Dave Eggler254658216478.02%1.137
Chick Fulmer244052815077.88%1.123
Jim McCormick209339911577.63%1.263
Bobby Mathews248744713077.47%1.191
Tom Carey391587227775.89%1.346
Cal McVey251368221775.86%0.989
Joe Start4747118939375.16%1.124
Bob Ferguson347178626374.93%1.125
Bill Bergen302844815674.17%1.262
Hick Carpenter463799534774.14%1.233
George Bradley227041414673.93%1.181
Davy Force425189132573.27%1.099
Emil Verban291166724473.22%1.422
Ned Cuthbert211343816472.76%1.048
Pud Galvin274842916372.47%1.229
Jack Burdock491599838272.32%1.144
Steve Brady203045517771.99%1.124
Pop Snyder364468126771.84%1.185
Hal Lanier370370427971.62%1.382
Don Mueller4364105142171.40%1.426

Again, this is peopled by lots of ye olde tyme players. Let's adjust for the era, but first the all-time best:

NameAB1Bnon-1BCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Mark McGwire6187785223326.01%0.535
Barry Bonds87251327342227.94%0.577
Jim Thome5218793184730.04%0.629
Babe Ruth83991517346130.47%0.549
Carlos Delgado4550658149930.51%0.645
Gene Tenace4390660147530.91%0.595
Mickey Tettleton4698661145031.31%0.630
Gorman Thomas4677558120831.60%0.608
Rob Deer388146299831.64%0.630
Mike Schmidt83521219260131.91%0.618
Troy Glaus275537278432.18%0.689
Harmon Killebrew81471199249432.47%0.633
Ted Williams77061537317732.61%0.643
Ralph Kiner5205827165933.27%0.662
Lance Berkman213934769633.27%0.716
Jeromy Burnitz4252580115333.47%0.707
Jay Buhner5013711141033.52%0.690
Wes Westrum232234067133.63%0.672
Hank Greenberg5193847164933.93%0.640
Pat Burrell205528154534.02%0.732
Greg Vaughn6103813156434.20%0.710
Darryl Strawberry5418772148334.24%0.692
Darren Daulton3630532101234.46%0.694
Jeff Bagwell71251233231034.80%0.729

The adjusted career averages:

NameAB1Bnon-1BCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Juan Pierre207753526866.63%1.433
Rey Sanchez4522101547168.30%1.430
Don Mueller4364105142171.40%1.426
Emil Verban291166724473.22%1.422
Ozzie Guillen6686139261869.25%1.417
Bob Lillis232846919270.95%1.385
Hal Lanier370370427971.62%1.382
Alvaro Espinoza247849422868.42%1.376
Jesus Alou434598839671.39%1.375
Felix Fermin276761729167.95%1.369
Ichiro Suzuki201851929663.68%1.361
Doug Flynn385375731370.75%1.360
Mario Guerrero225148019870.80%1.355
Rey Ordonez305460335163.21%1.347
Bobby Richardson5386116553668.49%1.347
Doug Glanville380281347463.17%1.346
Glenn Beckert5208122452869.86%1.346
Tom Carey391587227775.89%1.346
Maury Wills7588186683669.06%1.343
Luis Sojo257152028864.36%1.339
Matty Alou5789146066468.74%1.331
Jose Vizcaino4692103758164.09%1.331
Andres Thomas210337118466.85%1.329
Neifi Perez380975545862.24%1.327
Lance Johnson5379123968564.40%1.321

Now, that's a monumentally wretched list. Extra props to Neifi Perez for making it while playing the bulk of his career in cavernous Coors Field. That's giving 110%!

Next, the all-time best and then some final comments:

NameAB1Bnon-1BCareer 1B%Career Adj 1B%
Mark McGwire6187785223326.01%0.535
Babe Ruth83991517346130.47%0.549
Barry Bonds87251327342227.94%0.577
Gene Tenace4390660147530.91%0.595
Gorman Thomas4677558120831.60%0.608
Mike Schmidt83521219260131.91%0.618
Jim Thome5218793184730.04%0.629
Mickey Tettleton4698661145031.31%0.630
Rob Deer388146299831.64%0.630
Harmon Killebrew81471199249432.47%0.633
Hank Greenberg5193847164933.93%0.640
Bill Joyce3304642115435.75%0.643
Ted Williams77061537317732.61%0.643
Carlos Delgado4550658149930.51%0.645
Lou Gehrig80011531274335.82%0.661
Ralph Kiner5205827165933.27%0.662
Wes Westrum232234067133.63%0.672
Charlie Keller3790658122135.02%0.680
Dolph Camilli5353896156136.47%0.684
Willie McCovey81971291233435.61%0.688
Mickey Mantle81021463269835.16%0.689
Troy Glaus275537278432.18%0.689
Jay Buhner5013711141033.52%0.690
Yank Robinson342861894639.51%0.691
Max Bishop4494904149637.67%0.691

By the way, Bill Joyce was a power hitter at the turn of the last century, and Yank Robinson and Max Bishop were walk artists from years gone by.

OK, back to the previous list. Ichiro is 11th all-time. That means that only ten other men had substantial careers in the game and hit fewer extra base hits and walks (and HBP). Ichiro has cobbled together a career with singles, steals, and a great arm in right and basically nothing else. He has been just above water for most of the season. Should he lose any one of those skills as he ages, he is going to have a hard time keeping his job. Then again, he could always return to the Japanese leagues if they are still around.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.