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Gross American Product
2004-07-29 23:15
by Mike Carminati

By Gregor Gross

Since Mike showed us which team stats really count when it comes to winning, I thought it was about time to see who really belongs at the top of the Power Rankings. We learned, I thought, how different statistics correlate to winning percentages, so why not rank the teams after the stats they have accumulated in 2004 so far and see who'll come out on top?

So I took four popular stats for pitching and batting and ranked all teams. Then I multiplied their ranking in that statistic with its correlation, did that for all stats and added those figures together. In the end, the lowest figure should show the best team.

I took these stats and their correlations for pitching and batting:



Since I am a young German, and the new generation over here is famous for its laziness, I said let's do this only for the American League today. For the National League, I said, tomorrow would be fine. But before we go for the pitching rankings, I just want to say to you that this will make no more sense than anything Buster Olney over there at ESPN has to say:

TeamERA-RankCorrel. * RankWHIP-RankCorrel. * Rank
NY Yankees57,6429,997
Boston Red Sox39,16839,228
Toronto Blue Jays76,112113,076
TB Devil Rays94,584103,845
Baltimore Orioles131,528140,769
Minnesota Twins29,932110,766
Chicago White Sox85,34866,921
Cleveland Indians113,056122,307
Detroit Tigers122,29285,383
KC Royals140,764131,538
Oakland As110,69657,69
Anaheim Angels48,40448,459
Texas Rangers66,87676,152
Seattle Mariners103,8294,614

TeamK/BB-RankCorrel. * RankK/9IP-RankCorrel. * Rank
NY Yankees27,87883,101
Boston Red Sox37,27216,202
Toronto Blue Jays112,424102,215
TB Devil Rays140,606130,886
Baltimore Orioles131,21254,43
Minnesota Twins18,48444,873
Chicago White Sox56,06121,329
Cleveland Indians84,24235,316
Detroit Tigers93,63692,658
KC Royals121,818140,443
Oakland As65,45463,987
Anaheim Angels46,66625,759
Texas Rangers74,848111,772
Seattle Mariners103,0373,544

TeamSum PitchingSuper Rank Pitching
NY Yankees28,6164
Boston Red Sox31,872
Toronto Blue Jays13,82711
TB Devil Rays9,92112
Baltimore Orioles7,93913
Minnesota Twins34,0551
Chicago White Sox19,6586
Cleveland Indians14,9219
Detroit Tigers13,96910
KC Royals4,56314
Oakland As27,8275
Anaheim Angels29,2883
Texas Rangers19,6487
Seattle Mariners15,0088

And batting?

TeamBA-RankCorrel. * RankOBP-RankCorrel. * Rank
NY Yankees102,7438,364
Boston Red Sox36,57619,758
Toronto Blue Jays93,288103,485
TB Devil Rays131,096131,394
Baltimore Orioles55,4866,273
Minnesota Twins112,192112,788
Chicago White Sox83,83675,576
Cleveland Indians46,02829,061
Detroit Tigers27,12447,667
KC Royals140,548140,697
Oakland As64,93256,97
Anaheim Angels17,67284,879
Texas Rangers74,38494,182
Seattle Mariners121,644122,091

TeamSLG-RankCorrel. * RankOPS-RankCorrel. * Rank
NY Yankees46,33628,346
Boston Red Sox27,48818,988
Toronto Blue Jays121,728112,568
TB Devil Rays112,304121,926
Baltimore Orioles93,45693,852
Minnesota Twins102,88103,21
Chicago White Sox36,91237,704
Cleveland Indians65,18465,778
Detroit Tigers55,7656,42
KC Royals131,152140,642
Oakland As74,60875,136
Anaheim Angels84,03284,494
Texas Rangers18,06447,062
Seattle Mariners140,576131,284

TeamSum BattingSuper Rank Batting
NY Yankees25,7864
Boston Red Sox32,811
Toronto Blue Jays11,06911
TB Devil Rays6,7212
Baltimore Orioles19,0619
Minnesota Twins11,0710
Chicago White Sox24,0285
Cleveland Indians26,0513
Detroit Tigers26,9712
KC Royals3,03914
Oakland As21,6467
Anaheim Angels21,0778
Texas Rangers23,6926
Seattle Mariners5,59513

So what do we learn from this? We see why the Twins outperform their Exp. W%. They pitch so well. We see that the Red Sox can hit while the Royals can't. We also see that when BP told us that Johan Santana in 2004 might win a Cy Young because he faces the Tigers and Indians so often, they quite underestimated how tough it is to pitch against those offenses. We also see, by the way, how good it is to be a Tribe fan after all. But I'm straying a bit here.

So on to the overall rankings, which basically is pitching and batting together:

TeamSuper Duper SumSuper Duper Rank
NY Yankees27,2012
Boston Red Sox32,341
Toronto Blue Jays12,44811
TB Devil Rays8,320513
Baltimore Orioles13,510
Minnesota Twins22,56255
Chicago White Sox21,8436
Cleveland Indians20,4868
Detroit Tigers20,479
KC Royals3,80114
Oakland As24,73654
Anaheim Angels25,18253
Texas Rangers21,677
Seattle Mariners10,301512

Isn't this a terrifying scientific work? Before you hit the streets telling everyone the Indians are the eighth best team in the American League because some German fellow told you so on a Phillies fan's website that you read daily, please note, however, that all these rankings are for today only. It could look a bit different tomorrow. As with Buster Olneys b(aseballb)urps, it comes with a big grain of salt. Who tells me what it is gets lots of smooches!

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