Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
On May 25, 1989, the Montreal Expos did something that would seem very odd today. The Expos were in the process of creeping back to .500. Denny Martinez shut out the Giants in a day game at Candlestick for his fourth win against just one loss (and a 2.69 ERA). They would finish the day only three behind the division-leading Cubs but were in fourth place. None of those things is all that odd.
What was odd was that the Expos decided that they needed to add a veteran in order to gird themselves for a playoff run. That would be odd today. Other than laundering an odd Cliff Floyd on Les Expos, midseason help in Montreal has amounted to Bruce Chen rentals.
But in 1989 the 'Spos had high expectations. In '87, they had contended until the final days of the season. In '88, Montreal was 4.5 out on August 13 after a 32-17 run. They faltered down the stretch falling 20 games out and finishing at 81-81. As of May 25, the Expos had scored the most runs in the league. Unfortunately, they had also allowed the most and were outscored by a large margin though (187-205).
Along with Martinez, there was Kevin Gross who was 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA but had just shut the Giants out the night before, 1-0 on 11 strikeouts. Also, Bryn Smith was 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA. But the Expos couldn't seem to fill out a rotation. Pascual Perez was 0-7 with a 5.04 ERA, but he was getting paid nearly a million dollars in the last year of a two-year deal. 24-year-old Brian Holman had been moved into the rotation but had lost his last two starts (1-2 with a 4.83 ERA). There was one other starter, but I'll get to him in a minute.
The Expos coveted veteran lefty Mark Langston who would be a free agent at the end of the season and, therefore, was the subject of trade rumors ever since his Mariners opened for spring training. Langston was 4-5 with a 3.56 ERA (14% better than the adjusted league average) in ten starts in May 25. In 1988, he was 15-11 with 3.34 ERA (25% better than the adjusted league average).
These were very fine numbers to be sure, but what made Langston special was the overwhelming way he employed his blazing fastball along with a good slider. He led the league in strikeouts per nine innings, usually just under nine, and total strikeouts in 1984, 86, and 87, and were second in 1988. He also ate innings: 272 in 1987 and 261.1 in 1988. His Achilles heel was his frequent wildness. Langston led the league in walks in 1984 and was in the top four from 1986 to '88.
On May 25, the Expos famously acquired Langston for three young pitchers. He would go 12-9 with a 2.39 ERA that was 48% better than the park-adjusted average. Unfortunately, the Expos again finished at .500 and the Lansgton acquisition was soon viewed as a failure. Langston signed with the Angels after the season. However, the Expos still live with the legacy he wrought.
The three pitchers that Montreal sent to Seattle to get Langston were Gene Harris, Brian Holman, and, of course, Randy Johnson. In some ways Johnson's early career paralleled Langston's so well that one has to wonder why the Expos even bothered to make the trade: Johnson was a lefty who threw a great fastball-slider combo, struck out about a man an inning, and was often wild. Eerie, isn’t it?
Johnson led the Southern Association in strikeouts with 163 un 1987, the Florida State League in walks (94) in 1986, and the American Association in balks (20) in 1988. That pretty much epitomizes his minor-league career. However, Johnson had finished 1988 with an 8-7 record, a 3.26 ERA, and 111 strikeouts against "just" 72 walks in 113.1 innings. And in September he had found himself in the Expos rotation, finishing 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts, one a complete game. He also struck out 25 men in 26 innings. He did, however, display his signature wildness. He recorded three wild pitches, seven walks and three homers allowed in those 26 innings. Still his adjusted ERA was 49% better than the park-adjusted league average.
Twenty-five-year-old Randy Johnson started the 1989 season in the Expos rotation. On April 5, he gave up one earned run en route to shutout of the 'Spos by 26-year-old Doug Drabek of the Pirates. He struck out 9 and allowed just three hits but walked eight and picked up his first career loss. His next start lasted just three innings, with four runs, zero strikeouts, 5 hits, one homer run, and two walks in a 7-6 loss to the Phils. His next outing lasted just 1.2 innings: 5 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K. Johnson was then 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA. His next outing lasted at least 5 innings but had similar results: 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K. Johnson and his 0-3, 7.13 record was then sent to the bullpen. After one relief appearance, He got reinserted in the rotation but allows eight earned runs, ten walks (and eleven strikeouts) in the next two starts totaling eleven innings. On May 7, Johnson's record stood at 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA and his September success seemed like ancient history.
Johnson was sent back down to the minors for three starts before the trade. He went 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and struck out 17 while walking nine in 18 innings. He finished the year in Seattle with a 7-9 record, 4.40 ERA, 104 strikeouts and 70 walks in 118 innings.
A little over a week ago Randy Johnson became the fourth pitcher to reach 4000 strikeouts, something that seemed very unlikely early in his career. Johnson was recording his share of strikeouts but with the 100+ walks that accompanied them and ERAs that were slightly better than average, He was viewed more as an oddity than a great pitcher. His gawky 6'10" stature didn’t help. Then Johnson had a breakout season in 1993, winning 19, striking out 308 while walking just 99 in 255.1 innings, recorded a 3.24 ERA (35% better than average), and finished a distant second-place finish in the AL Cy Young vote. Johnson was 29 and he had finally found his muse. He would remain at or above that level as a pitcher until basically today.
Here's a breakdown of the four 4000-strikeout pitchers at various stages of their career that puts Johnson's late blooming on full display:
Name | Age 25 K | Rank | Age 30 K | Rank | Age 35 K | Rank | Age 40 K | Rank | Total K | Rank |
Nolan Ryan | 822 | 50t | 2426 | 2 | 3494 | 1 | 4547 | 1 | 5714 | 1 |
Roger Clemens | 985 | 28 | 2033 | 11 | 3153 | 2 | 4099 | 2 | 4212 | 2 |
Steve Carlton | 779 | 60 | 1916 | 14 | 2969 | 6 | 3920 | 4 | 4136 | 3 |
Randy Johnson | 155 | 1102t | 1330 | 77 | 2693 | 8 | 4010 | 3 | 4010 | 4 |
It becomes even clearer if you look at the interstitial values:
Name | <=25 K | Rank | 26-30 K | Rank | 31-35 | Rank | 36-40 | Rank | 40+ | Rank |
Nolan Ryan | 822 | 50t | 1604 | 1 | 1068 | 6 | 1053 | 2 | 1167 | 1 |
Randy Johnson | 155 | 28 | 1175 | 9 | 1363 | 1 | 1317 | 1 | 0 | N/A |
Roger Clemens | 985 | 60 | 1048 | 19 | 1120 | 5 | 946 | 4 | 113 | 27 |
Steve Carlton | 779 | 1102t | 1137 | 13 | 1053 | 9 | 951 | 3 | 216 | 13 |
Not only does Johnson come into his own in his early thirties, he maintained his level of excellence through his thirties, especially his strikeout totals, which were still coming at an unprecedented rate for a man his age. Witness the top 10 in strikeouts for various ages and Johnson's late but continual ascendency:
Name | Age 25 K |
Amos Rusie | 1679 |
Bert Blyleven | 1546 |
Toad Ramsey | 1515 |
Walter Johnson | 1461 |
Dwight Gooden | 1391 |
Sam McDowell | 1384 |
Fernando Valenzuela | 1274 |
Don Drysdale | 1236 |
Bob Feller | 1233 |
Gus Weyhing | 1208 |
Christy Mathewson | 1208 |
Name | Age 30 K |
Walter Johnson | 2467 |
Nolan Ryan | 2426 |
Sandy Koufax | 2396 |
Sam McDowell | 2391 |
Bert Blyleven | 2357 |
Don Drysdale | 2307 |
Pedro Martinez | 2220 |
Christy Mathewson | 2119 |
Bob Feller | 2108 |
Tom Seaver | 2099 |
Name | Age 35 K |
Nolan Ryan | 3494 |
Roger Clemens | 3153 |
Bert Blyleven | 3090 |
Walter Johnson | 3070 |
Tom Seaver | 2988 |
Steve Carlton | 2969 |
Mickey Lolich | 2799 |
Randy Johnson | 2693 |
Don Sutton | 2652 |
Fergie Jenkins | 2606 |
Name | Age 40 K |
Nolan Ryan | 4547 |
Roger Clemens | 4099 |
Randy Johnson | 4010 |
Steve Carlton | 3920 |
Bert Blyleven | 3631 |
Tom Seaver | 3537 |
Walter Johnson | 3509 |
Don Sutton | 3315 |
Fergie Jenkins | 3192 |
Gaylord Perry | 3141 |
Bob Gibson | 3117 |
Name | Total K |
Nolan Ryan | 5714 |
Roger Clemens | 4212 |
Steve Carlton | 4136 |
Randy Johnson | 4010 |
Bert Blyleven | 3701 |
Tom Seaver | 3640 |
Don Sutton | 3574 |
Gaylord Perry | 3534 |
Walter Johnson | 3509 |
Phil Niekro | 3342 |
Fergie Jenkins | 3192 |
Bob Gibson | 3117 |
Name | 26-30 K |
Nolan Ryan | 1604 |
Sandy Koufax | 1444 |
Tim Keefe | 1408 |
Rube Waddell | 1366 |
Pedro Martinez | 1250 |
Tom Seaver | 1233 |
Charley Radbourn | 1228 |
Mickey Lolich | 1180 |
Randy Johnson | 1175 |
Fergie Jenkins | 1164 |
J.R. Richard | 1163 |
Name | 31-35 K |
Randy Johnson | 1363 |
Curt Schilling | 1229 |
Jim Bunning | 1188 |
Bob Gibson | 1143 |
Roger Clemens | 1120 |
Nolan Ryan | 1068 |
Gaylord Perry | 1060 |
Kevin Brown | 1058 |
Steve Carlton | 1053 |
Mike Scott | 1022 |
Name | 36-40 K |
Randy Johnson | 1317 |
Nolan Ryan | 1053 |
Phil Niekro | 1035 |
Steve Carlton | 951 |
Roger Clemens | 946 |
Cy Young | 873 |
Early Wynn | 858 |
Charlie Hough | 848 |
Gaylord Perry | 847 |
Dazzy Vance | 833 |
Name | 40+ K |
Nolan Ryan | 1167 |
Phil Niekro | 940 |
Charlie Hough | 582 |
Hoyt Wilhelm | 570 |
Gaylord Perry | 393 |
Warren Spahn | 388 |
Cy Young | 372 |
Jack Quinn | 312 |
Satchel Paige | 290 |
Tommy John | 262 |
One last thing, here are the top ten pitchers in strikeouts above expected all-time (through 2003):
Name | K | Exp K | Diff |
Nolan Ryan | 5714 | 3177.67 | 2536.33 |
Randy Johnson | 3871 | 2166.20 | 1704.80 |
Roger Clemens | 4099 | 2819.70 | 1279.30 |
Walter Johnson | 3509 | 2317.70 | 1191.30 |
Rube Waddell | 2316 | 1200.41 | 1115.59 |
Dazzy Vance | 2045 | 959.34 | 1085.66 |
Steve Carlton | 4136 | 3155.37 | 980.63 |
Bob Feller | 2581 | 1617.34 | 963.66 |
Sandy Koufax | 2396 | 1437.43 | 958.57 |
Pedro Martinez | 2426 | 1482.38 | 943.62 |
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