Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
As Mike Piazza passed Carlton Fisk in the farcical catcher home run "record", another much more important milestone was passed and is somehow being marginalized by the Piazza story and Spidey-Gate. The other milestone was Roger Clemens passing lefty Carlton for second all-time on the all-time strikeout list. I know that it's just second, but at least it's a real record.
Clemens is over 1500 K's behind Nolan Ryan for first place so he appears to have achieved his ultimate position on the list. For the record here it is:
Name | First | Last | IP | SO |
Nolan Ryan | 1966 | 1993 | 5386 | 5714 |
Roger Clemens | 1984 | 2004 | 4317 | 4140 |
Steve Carlton | 1965 | 1988 | 5217.333 | 4136 |
Randy Johnson | 1988 | 2004 | 3122.333 | 3922 |
Bert Blyleven | 1970 | 1992 | 4970 | 3701 |
Tom Seaver | 1967 | 1986 | 4782.667 | 3640 |
Don Sutton | 1966 | 1988 | 5282.333 | 3574 |
Gaylord Perry | 1962 | 1983 | 5350.333 | 3534 |
Walter Johnson | 1907 | 1927 | 5914.667 | 3509 |
Phil Niekro | 1964 | 1987 | 5404.333 | 3342 |
Fergie Jenkins | 1965 | 1983 | 4500.667 | 3192 |
Bob Gibson | 1959 | 1975 | 3884.333 | 3117 |
Jim Bunning | 1955 | 1971 | 3760.333 | 2855 |
Mickey Lolich | 1963 | 1979 | 3638.333 | 2832 |
Cy Young | 1890 | 1911 | 7354.667 | 2803 |
Greg Maddux | 1986 | 2004 | 3968.667 | 2791 |
Frank Tanana | 1973 | 1993 | 4188.333 | 2773 |
David Cone | 1986 | 2003 | 2898.667 | 2668 |
Chuck Finley | 1986 | 2002 | 3197.333 | 2610 |
Curt Schilling | 1988 | 2004 | 2586 | 2587 |
Warren Spahn | 1942 | 1965 | 5243.667 | 2583 |
Bob Feller | 1936 | 1956 | 3827 | 2581 |
Tim Keefe | 1880 | 1893 | 5047.667 | 2562 |
Jerry Koosman | 1967 | 1985 | 3839.333 | 2556 |
Christy Mathewson | 1900 | 1916 | 4780.667 | 2502 |
You might notice a few things about that list. For one thing, there are a number of recent pitchers. Critics charge that home run numbers in baseball have gone through the roof. They forgot, however, how many more strikeouts have been introduced by the recent style of play. One other thing is that there are a large number of pitchers, including Clemens and all-time K record holder Nolan Ryan, that pitched a ridiculous long time. That's not a knock on those two who will be remembered as great strikeout pitchers. However, when you see names like Greg Maddux and Frank Tanana, who will be remembered more for finesse than power (besides early in Tanana's career), you start to think that there's a better way to present the all-time power pitchers.
It got me to thinking about a way to compensate for era and career length. What I did was take for a given pitcher in a given year the strikeout-to-innings ratio for the league in which he pitched. Then I multiplied the pitcher's innings pitched by this ratio to get the expected number of strikeouts for the pitcher. I subtracted the expected strikeouts from the actual and recorded the difference. Then I summed that difference over a pitcher's career. Now, here are the top 50 for career strikeouts above expected through 2003 (Sorry, the Lahman database isn't updated dynamically):
Name | First | Last | IP | SO | Exp K | Diff |
Nolan Ryan | 1966 | 1993 | 5386.0 | 5714 | 3177.67 | 2536.327 |
Randy Johnson | 1988 | 2003 | 3122.3 | 3871 | 2166.20 | 1704.797 |
Roger Clemens | 1984 | 2003 | 4278.7 | 4099 | 2819.70 | 1279.305 |
Walter Johnson | 1907 | 1927 | 5914.7 | 3509 | 2317.70 | 1191.298 |
Rube Waddell | 1897 | 1910 | 2961.3 | 2316 | 1200.41 | 1115.587 |
Dazzy Vance | 1915 | 1935 | 2966.7 | 2045 | 959.34 | 1085.663 |
Steve Carlton | 1965 | 1988 | 5217.3 | 4136 | 3155.37 | 980.632 |
Bob Feller | 1936 | 1956 | 3827.0 | 2581 | 1617.34 | 963.664 |
Sandy Koufax | 1955 | 1966 | 2324.3 | 2396 | 1437.43 | 958.571 |
Pedro Martinez | 1992 | 2003 | 2079.0 | 2426 | 1482.38 | 943.623 |
Sam McDowell | 1961 | 1975 | 2492.3 | 2453 | 1586.30 | 866.701 |
Lefty Grove | 1925 | 1941 | 3940.7 | 2266 | 1422.08 | 843.916 |
Bert Blyleven | 1970 | 1992 | 4970.0 | 3701 | 2896.28 | 804.722 |
Tom Seaver | 1967 | 1986 | 4782.7 | 3640 | 2876.45 | 763.550 |
Amos Rusie | 1889 | 1901 | 3769.7 | 1934 | 1183.60 | 750.399 |
David Cone | 1986 | 2003 | 2898.7 | 2668 | 1940.42 | 727.578 |
Bob Gibson | 1959 | 1975 | 3884.3 | 3117 | 2448.68 | 668.322 |
Curt Schilling | 1988 | 2003 | 2586.0 | 2542 | 1883.57 | 658.434 |
Toad Ramsey | 1885 | 1890 | 2100.7 | 1515 | 885.57 | 629.432 |
Tim Keefe | 1880 | 1893 | 5047.7 | 2562 | 1939.18 | 622.815 |
Mickey Lolich | 1963 | 1979 | 3638.3 | 2832 | 2229.63 | 602.373 |
Tommy Bridges | 1930 | 1946 | 2826.3 | 1674 | 1089.86 | 584.139 |
Bobo Newsom | 1929 | 1953 | 3759.3 | 2082 | 1497.91 | 584.089 |
Jim Bunning | 1955 | 1971 | 3760.3 | 2855 | 2276.34 | 578.656 |
J.R. Richard | 1971 | 1980 | 1606.0 | 1493 | 918.04 | 574.965 |
Mark Langston | 1984 | 1999 | 2962.7 | 2464 | 1894.30 | 569.699 |
Christy Mathewson | 1900 | 1916 | 4780.7 | 2502 | 1933.16 | 568.845 |
Hal Newhouser | 1939 | 1955 | 2993.0 | 1796 | 1228.21 | 567.789 |
Fergie Jenkins | 1965 | 1983 | 4500.7 | 3192 | 2653.34 | 538.664 |
Sid Fernandez | 1983 | 1997 | 1866.7 | 1743 | 1222.86 | 520.143 |
Lefty Gomez | 1930 | 1943 | 2503.0 | 1468 | 954.57 | 513.431 |
Dennis Eckersley | 1975 | 1998 | 3285.7 | 2401 | 1893.67 | 507.329 |
Chuck Finley | 1986 | 2002 | 3197.3 | 2610 | 2127.06 | 482.945 |
Hideo Nomo | 1995 | 2003 | 1787.3 | 1802 | 1322.02 | 479.981 |
John Smoltz | 1988 | 2003 | 2618.0 | 2313 | 1837.48 | 475.518 |
Rich Gossage | 1972 | 1994 | 1809.3 | 1502 | 1035.03 | 466.975 |
Van Mungo | 1931 | 1945 | 2113.0 | 1242 | 775.84 | 466.159 |
Johnny Vander Meer | 1937 | 1951 | 2104.7 | 1294 | 833.77 | 460.230 |
Bob Veale | 1962 | 1974 | 1926.0 | 1703 | 1244.75 | 458.246 |
Sam Jones | 1951 | 1964 | 1643.3 | 1376 | 919.68 | 456.319 |
Ron Guidry | 1975 | 1988 | 2392.0 | 1778 | 1322.30 | 455.696 |
Dwight Gooden | 1984 | 2000 | 2800.7 | 2293 | 1843.49 | 449.513 |
Dizzy Dean | 1930 | 1947 | 1967.3 | 1163 | 725.48 | 437.522 |
Tom Gordon | 1988 | 2003 | 1807.0 | 1637 | 1201.01 | 435.988 |
Lee Smith | 1980 | 1997 | 1289.3 | 1251 | 818.73 | 432.265 |
Camilo Pascual | 1954 | 1971 | 2930.7 | 2167 | 1735.35 | 431.653 |
Red Ames | 1903 | 1919 | 3198.0 | 1702 | 1285.47 | 416.532 |
Jim Maloney | 1960 | 1971 | 1849.0 | 1605 | 1191.81 | 413.190 |
Ed Walsh | 1904 | 1917 | 2964.3 | 1736 | 1324.49 | 411.506 |
Mario Soto | 1977 | 1988 | 1730.3 | 1449 | 1041.58 | 407.423 |
That eliminates the era issue. There are a good deal more old-time players on this list. It's interesting to see Toad Ramsey ending up #19. And it's great to see J.R. Richard up there, too.
So Ryan is still number one but Randy Johnson blows past Clemens for #2. And guys like Walter Johnson, Rube Waddell, and Bob Feller climb up the list.
By the same token, this method provides us with a list of the worst strikeout artists of all time, the ones that fell shy of expectations by the most Ks. Here they are:
Name | First | Last | IP | SO | Exp K | Diff |
Lew Burdette | 1950 | 1967 | 3067.333 | 1074 | 1729.92 | -655.92 |
Claude Osteen | 1957 | 1975 | 3460.333 | 1612 | 2184.537 | -572.537 |
Tommy John | 1963 | 1989 | 4710.333 | 2245 | 2801.42 | -556.42 |
Bob Forsch | 1974 | 1989 | 2794.667 | 1133 | 1666.6 | -533.6 |
Pud Galvin | 1875 | 1892 | 6003.333 | 1806 | 2312.49 | -506.49 |
Kirk Rueter | 1993 | 2003 | 1620.333 | 737 | 1209.338 | -472.338 |
Bob Purkey | 1954 | 1966 | 2114.667 | 793 | 1255.483 | -462.483 |
Mike Morgan | 1978 | 2002 | 2772.333 | 1403 | 1847.9 | -444.9 |
Jim Barr | 1971 | 1983 | 2065.333 | 741 | 1185.13 | -444.13 |
Vern Law | 1950 | 1967 | 2672 | 1092 | 1528.15 | -436.15 |
Joe Niekro | 1967 | 1988 | 3584 | 1747 | 2170.455 | -423.455 |
Terry Mulholland | 1986 | 2003 | 2390.333 | 1246 | 1669.074 | -423.074 |
Mel Stottlemyre | 1964 | 1974 | 2661.333 | 1257 | 1676.358 | -419.358 |
Bob Tewksbury | 1986 | 1998 | 1807 | 812 | 1229.537 | -417.537 |
Ted Lyons | 1923 | 1946 | 4161 | 1073 | 1490.353 | -417.353 |
Doyle Alexander | 1971 | 1989 | 3367.667 | 1528 | 1937.417 | -409.417 |
Ross Grimsley | 1971 | 1982 | 2039.333 | 750 | 1159.383 | -409.383 |
Jim Perry | 1959 | 1975 | 3285.667 | 1576 | 1982.313 | -406.313 |
Clyde Wright | 1966 | 1975 | 1728.667 | 667 | 1042.284 | -375.284 |
Mike Caldwell | 1971 | 1984 | 2408.667 | 939 | 1311.167 | -372.167 |
Bill Lee | 1969 | 1982 | 1944.333 | 713 | 1085.143 | -372.143 |
Tom Glavine | 1987 | 2003 | 3528 | 2136 | 2507.083 | -371.083 |
Randy Jones | 1973 | 1982 | 1933 | 735 | 1100.793 | -365.793 |
Lary Sorensen | 1977 | 1988 | 1736.333 | 569 | 934.6785 | -365.679 |
Brian Anderson | 1993 | 2003 | 1350.333 | 636 | 981.9731 | -345.973 |
There are some famously soft tossers on the list, Bob Teksbury for one and Kirk Rueter among the current players.
However, there is still the issue of career length to deal with. If we just add up the figures over the years, pitchers with longer careers get buoyed. So my next idea was to use a ratio of actual strikeouts to expected. This would indicate which pitchers exceeded expectations the most. (I set a minimum cutoff to 500 IP, otherwise OF Mike Anderson would rank among the all-time leaders.) Here are the results for the highest ratio:
Name | First | Last | IP | SO | Exp K | Diff | Ratio |
Cy Seymour | 1896 | 1902 | 1029.0 | 584 | 267.92 | 316.08 | 2.1798 |
Dazzy Vance | 1915 | 1935 | 2966.7 | 2045 | 959.34 | 1085.66 | 2.1317 |
Rube Waddell | 1897 | 1910 | 2961.3 | 2316 | 1200.41 | 1115.59 | 1.9293 |
Herb Score | 1955 | 1962 | 858.3 | 837 | 451.53 | 385.47 | 1.8537 |
Ryne Duren | 1954 | 1965 | 589.3 | 630 | 344.83 | 285.17 | 1.8270 |
Billy Wagner | 1995 | 2003 | 504.3 | 694 | 379.92 | 314.08 | 1.8267 |
Nolan Ryan | 1966 | 1993 | 5386.0 | 5714 | 3177.67 | 2536.33 | 1.7982 |
Armando Benitez | 1994 | 2003 | 584.3 | 764 | 427.23 | 336.77 | 1.7883 |
Mark Clear | 1979 | 1990 | 804.3 | 804 | 449.80 | 354.20 | 1.7875 |
Randy Johnson | 1988 | 2003 | 3122.3 | 3871 | 2166.20 | 1704.80 | 1.7870 |
Troy Percival | 1995 | 2003 | 537.0 | 647 | 374.02 | 272.98 | 1.7299 |
Tom Henke | 1982 | 1995 | 789.7 | 861 | 499.56 | 361.44 | 1.7235 |
Toad Ramsey | 1885 | 1890 | 2100.7 | 1515 | 885.57 | 629.43 | 1.7108 |
Sandy Koufax | 1955 | 1966 | 2324.3 | 2396 | 1437.43 | 958.57 | 1.6669 |
Dick Radatz | 1962 | 1969 | 693.7 | 745 | 448.07 | 296.93 | 1.6627 |
Bill Caudill | 1979 | 1987 | 667.0 | 620 | 376.50 | 243.50 | 1.6467 |
Duane Ward | 1986 | 1995 | 666.7 | 679 | 414.68 | 264.32 | 1.6374 |
Pedro Martinez | 1992 | 2003 | 2079.0 | 2426 | 1482.38 | 943.62 | 1.6366 |
Amos Rusie | 1889 | 1901 | 3769.7 | 1934 | 1183.60 | 750.40 | 1.6340 |
J.R. Richard | 1971 | 1980 | 1606.0 | 1493 | 918.04 | 574.96 | 1.6263 |
Doc McJames | 1895 | 1901 | 1361.3 | 593 | 367.81 | 225.19 | 1.6122 |
Dizzy Dean | 1930 | 1947 | 1967.3 | 1163 | 725.48 | 437.52 | 1.6031 |
Van Mungo | 1931 | 1945 | 2113.0 | 1242 | 775.84 | 466.16 | 1.6008 |
Joe Page | 1944 | 1954 | 790.0 | 519 | 325.14 | 193.86 | 1.5962 |
Bob Feller | 1936 | 1956 | 3827.0 | 2581 | 1617.34 | 963.66 | 1.5958 |
Lefty Grove | 1925 | 1941 | 3940.7 | 2266 | 1422.08 | 843.92 | 1.5934 |
Ugueth Urbina | 1995 | 2003 | 563.7 | 661 | 417.52 | 243.48 | 1.5832 |
Mark Littell | 1973 | 1982 | 532.0 | 466 | 295.53 | 170.47 | 1.5768 |
Jeff Nelson | 1992 | 2003 | 721.7 | 771 | 490.77 | 280.23 | 1.5710 |
Kerry Wood | 1998 | 2003 | 902.7 | 1065 | 680.55 | 384.45 | 1.5649 |
Johnny Vander Meer | 1937 | 1951 | 2104.7 | 1294 | 833.77 | 460.23 | 1.5520 |
Pat Malone | 1928 | 1937 | 1915.0 | 1024 | 660.17 | 363.83 | 1.5511 |
John Wetteland | 1989 | 2000 | 765.0 | 804 | 518.75 | 285.25 | 1.5499 |
Sam McDowell | 1961 | 1975 | 2492.3 | 2453 | 1586.30 | 866.70 | 1.5464 |
Trevor Hoffman | 1993 | 2003 | 710.0 | 808 | 524.00 | 284.00 | 1.5420 |
Tom Hall | 1968 | 1977 | 852.7 | 797 | 517.16 | 279.84 | 1.5411 |
Lefty Gomez | 1930 | 1943 | 2503.0 | 1468 | 954.57 | 513.43 | 1.5379 |
Tommy Bridges | 1930 | 1946 | 2826.3 | 1674 | 1089.86 | 584.14 | 1.5360 |
Jim Kern | 1974 | 1986 | 793.3 | 651 | 425.38 | 225.62 | 1.5304 |
Lee Smith | 1980 | 1997 | 1289.3 | 1251 | 818.73 | 432.27 | 1.5280 |
Orval Overall | 1905 | 1913 | 1535.3 | 935 | 612.59 | 322.41 | 1.5263 |
Jakie May | 1917 | 1932 | 1562.3 | 765 | 503.09 | 261.91 | 1.5206 |
Walter Johnson | 1907 | 1927 | 5914.7 | 3509 | 2317.70 | 1191.30 | 1.5140 |
Joe Wood | 1908 | 1920 | 1436.3 | 989 | 657.11 | 331.89 | 1.5051 |
Now here are the lowest:
Name | First | Last | IP | SO | Exp K | Diff | Ratio |
Ted Wingfield | 1923 | 1927 | 553.3 | 68 | 170.14 | -102.14 | 0.3997 |
Benny Frey | 1929 | 1936 | 1160.0 | 179 | 415.84 | -236.84 | 0.4305 |
Ernie Wingard | 1924 | 1927 | 688.3 | 101 | 210.06 | -109.06 | 0.4808 |
Jim Britt | 1872 | 1873 | 816.7 | 28 | 57.95 | -29.95 | 0.4831 |
Wild Bill Widner | 1887 | 1891 | 522.0 | 110 | 224.23 | -114.23 | 0.4906 |
Jeff Ballard | 1987 | 1994 | 773.3 | 244 | 486.08 | -242.08 | 0.5020 |
John Doherty | 1992 | 1996 | 521.3 | 177 | 336.94 | -159.94 | 0.5253 |
Sandy Consuegra | 1950 | 1957 | 809.3 | 193 | 366.22 | -173.22 | 0.5270 |
Patsy Flaherty | 1899 | 1911 | 1302.7 | 271 | 514.05 | -243.05 | 0.5272 |
Sam Zoldak | 1944 | 1952 | 929.3 | 207 | 391.57 | -184.57 | 0.5286 |
Steve Kline | 1970 | 1977 | 750.3 | 240 | 448.32 | -208.32 | 0.5353 |
Jimmy Anderson | 1999 | 2003 | 559.0 | 235 | 424.45 | -189.45 | 0.5537 |
Johnny Couch | 1917 | 1925 | 643.0 | 112 | 197.90 | -85.90 | 0.5659 |
Harry McCormick | 1879 | 1883 | 884.0 | 157 | 277.07 | -120.07 | 0.5666 |
Bill Reidy | 1896 | 1904 | 601.7 | 109 | 191.21 | -82.21 | 0.5700 |
Jack Russell | 1926 | 1940 | 2050.7 | 418 | 732.37 | -314.37 | 0.5708 |
Bill Hubbell | 1919 | 1925 | 931.0 | 167 | 288.78 | -121.78 | 0.5783 |
Peaches Davis | 1936 | 1939 | 542.0 | 123 | 212.64 | -89.64 | 0.5784 |
Heinie Meine | 1922 | 1934 | 999.3 | 199 | 343.75 | -144.75 | 0.5789 |
Doug Sisk | 1982 | 1991 | 523.3 | 195 | 330.57 | -135.57 | 0.5899 |
Chris Welsh | 1981 | 1986 | 537.7 | 192 | 322.86 | -130.86 | 0.5947 |
Jack Dunn | 1897 | 1904 | 1076.7 | 171 | 286.49 | -115.49 | 0.5969 |
Brian Meadows | 1998 | 2003 | 738.3 | 329 | 547.24 | -218.24 | 0.6012 |
Fernando Arroyo | 1975 | 1986 | 535.7 | 172 | 286.04 | -114.04 | 0.6013 |
John Coleman | 1883 | 1890 | 842.7 | 224 | 371.93 | -147.93 | 0.6023 |
Poor Ted Wingfield. By the way, if you're interested the most average strikeout pitcher all time, the only that best fit the expected strikeout value, was Rich Gale with a ratio of 1.0001 (518 actual, 517.95 expected).
I'll tell you I like both sets of tables, but I'm not pleased with the last set entirely. Either one, however, is preferable to the all-time K list.
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