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“We Owe You One. We Owe You 1!”
2008-10-26 22:33
by Mike Carminati

The Phils pummeled the Rays tonight 10-2 in game four of the World Series to take a commanding three-games-to-one lead. And the game wasn't even that close as the Phils' inability to score within the red zone continued to handcuff them in the early innings. They left the bases loaded in the first and third innings and left seven men on base in total. Meanwhile the Rays could do little more than hit two solo home runs.

The Phils equaled their run output in games one through three tonight. This has happened just three times when ten or more runs were scored in the fourth game. The most was by, guess who, the '93 Phils who coughed up game four of the World Series 15-14:

YrTmRound1st 3 Gs RG1 RG2 RG3 RG4 RG WG L
1993Philadelphia PhilliesWS145631424
2002Minnesota TwinsALDS117131132
2008Philadelphia PhilliesWS1032510??
1923New York YankeesWS8440842
1981Los Angeles DodgersWS8305842
2003New York YankeesALDS8143831
1941New York YankeesWS7322741
1961New York YankeesWS7223741
1965Los Angeles DodgersWS7214743
1951New York YankeesWS6132642
1917New York GiantsWS5122524
1939Cincinnati RedsWS4103404
1945Detroit TigersWS4040443
1949Brooklyn DodgersWS4013414
2007Arizona DiamondbacksNLCS4121404

If The Phils win behind Cole Hamels tomorrow, it would quite an historic night. Of course, there's the second Phils World Championship in 126 years of existence, which would garner most of the press. But Hamels (as previously mentioned) would become the first pitcher to record five wins in a postseason without a loss. And the Phils would become just the ninth team since the advent of divisional play and the first since 1999 to win a World Series without a postseason loss at home.

Here are all the others:

1999New York Yankees
1989Oakland Athletics
1987Minnesota Twins
1984Detroit Tigers
1978New York Yankees
1976Cincinnati Reds
1971Pittsburgh Pirates
1969New York Mets
1966Baltimore Orioles
1965Los Angeles Dodgers
1963Los Angeles Dodgers
1956New York Yankees
1955Brooklyn Dodgers
1954New York Giants
1953New York Yankees
1950New York Yankees
1939New York Yankees
1938New York Yankees
1937New York Yankees
1933New York Giants
1932New York Yankees
1930Philadelphia Athletics
1928New York Yankees
1927New York Yankees
1922New York Giants
1920Cleveland Indians
1917Chicago White Sox
1916Boston Red Sox
1915Boston Red Sox
1914Boston Braves
1911Philadelphia Athletics
1910Philadelphia Athletics
1907Chicago Cubs
2008-10-27 11:13:19
1.   Xeifrank
61.55% chance the Phillies wrap the W.S. up tonight and an 86.1% chance they win the W.S. If they don't win tonight, those chances drop down to 63.46%. As much as the Phillies are in the drivers seat, the pot would sure get stirred if the series went back to Tampa Bay @ 3-2. The Phillies obviously don't want any part of that. :)
vr, Xei
2008-10-27 18:13:40
2.   Mike Carminati
1 My numbers differ. Teams up 3-1 in 7-game series won the series 84% of the time (57-11 through 2008 so far). I have 3-1 teams winning G4 just 51% of the time (35-33). Oddly, home teams up 3-1 win game 4 just 43% of the time (13-17) while road teams won 58% (22-16). Uh oh.

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