Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The night after the Brewers bullpen lost their first lead of the season, the Brewers—specifically, former Phil Johnny Estrada—forced newly minted closer Brett Myers to blow his first save in eight tries (i.e., four saves and three holds previously). Luckily for the Phils, they were able to pull out a victory on a Carlos Ruiz walkoff home run. What a way for the rookie catcher to rebut the Phils not resigning veteran Estrada in the offseason.
The Brewers entered the series with a 21-0 record when leading after six innings and were making a run at the all-time "record" 55-0 by the '97 Reds. Consider that the Brew Crew was 27th last season by keeping 43 leads and losing just 12 (78.2%) when leading after six.
In 2006 the average lead retention rate over the last three innings was 85.2%. The Mets lead all teams retaining 94.4% of all leads (67 of 71). The Royals were the worst (surprise!) with just a 71.4% retention rate (40 of 56).
Here are all the lead retention rates for last season, from best to worst:
| Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS |
| New York Mets | 67 | 4 | 94.4% | 97 | 65 | .599 | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 64 | 4 | 94.1% | 96 | 66 | .593 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 55 | 4 | 93.2% | 88 | 74 | .543 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 64 | 5 | 92.8% | 89 | 73 | .549 | 2 |
| Chicago White Sox | 65 | 6 | 91.5% | 90 | 72 | .556 | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 52 | 5 | 91.2% | 78 | 84 | .481 | 4 |
| Texas Rangers | 57 | 7 | 89.1% | 80 | 82 | .494 | 3 |
| New York Yankees | 68 | 9 | 88.3% | 97 | 65 | .599 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 65 | 9 | 87.8% | 87 | 75 | .537 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 50 | 7 | 87.7% | 80 | 82 | .494 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 57 | 8 | 87.7% | 88 | 74 | .543 | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 71 | 10 | 87.7% | 95 | 67 | .586 | 2 |
| Oakland Athletics | 63 | 9 | 87.5% | 93 | 69 | .574 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 56 | 8 | 87.5% | 85 | 77 | .525 | 2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 52 | 9 | 85.2% | 79 | 83 | .488 | 3 |
| Houston Astros | 57 | 10 | 85.1% | 82 | 80 | .506 | 2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 49 | 9 | 84.5% | 70 | 92 | .432 | 4 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 64 | 12 | 84.2% | 83 | 78 | .516 | 1 |
| Chicago Cubs | 48 | 9 | 84.2% | 66 | 96 | .407 | 6 |
| San Francisco Giants | 53 | 10 | 84.1% | 76 | 85 | .472 | 3 |
| Florida Marlins | 58 | 11 | 84.1% | 78 | 84 | .481 | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 59 | 13 | 81.9% | 86 | 76 | .531 | 3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 53 | 12 | 81.5% | 76 | 86 | .469 | 4 |
| Colorado Rockies | 55 | 14 | 79.7% | 76 | 86 | .469 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 43 | 11 | 79.6% | 67 | 95 | .414 | 5 |
| Cleveland Indians | 58 | 16 | 78.4% | 78 | 84 | .481 | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 43 | 12 | 78.2% | 75 | 87 | .463 | 4 |
| Washington Nationals | 42 | 16 | 72.4% | 71 | 91 | .438 | 5 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 38 | 15 | 71.7% | 61 | 101 | .377 | 5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 40 | 16 | 71.4% | 62 | 100 | .383 | 5 |
As for the best teams at retaining leads (since 1901):
| Year | Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS | Won Div? | WC? | Won Lg? | Won WS? |
| 1997 | Cincinnati Reds | 55 | 0 | 100.0% | 76 | 86 | .469 | 3 | N | N | N | N |
| 1954 | Cleveland Indians | 76 | 1 | 98.7% | 111 | 43 | .721 | 1 | Y | N | ||
| 1952 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 59 | 1 | 98.3% | 96 | 57 | .627 | 1 | Y | N | ||
| 1940 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 55 | 1 | 98.2% | 88 | 65 | .575 | 2 | N | N | ||
| 1942 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 76 | 2 | 97.4% | 104 | 50 | .675 | 2 | N | N | ||
| 1942 | St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 2 | 97.4% | 106 | 48 | .688 | 1 | Y | Y | ||
| 2001 | St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 2 | 97.4% | 93 | 69 | .574 | 2 | N | Y | N | N |
| 1935 | New York Giants | 65 | 2 | 97.0% | 91 | 62 | .595 | 3 | N | N | ||
| 1946 | New York Yankees | 65 | 2 | 97.0% | 87 | 67 | .565 | 3 | N | N | ||
| 1901 | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 1 | 97.0% | 52 | 87 | .374 | 8 | N | |||
| 1969 | New York Mets | 63 | 2 | 96.9% | 100 | 62 | .617 | 1 | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1973 | Detroit Tigers | 58 | 2 | 96.7% | 85 | 77 | .525 | 3 | N | N | N | |
| 1980 | New York Yankees | 72 | 3 | 96.0% | 103 | 59 | .636 | 1 | Y | N | N |
The worst are lead, of course, by the abysmal '62 Mets whose best reliever was probably their alleged number-one starter, Roger Craig:
| Year | Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS | Won Div? | WC? | Won Lg? | Won WS? |
| 1962 | New York Mets | 20 | 14 | 58.8% | 40 | 120 | .250 | 10 | N | N | ||
| 1950 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 35 | 19 | 64.8% | 57 | 96 | .373 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1928 | Philadelphia Phillies | 23 | 12 | 65.7% | 43 | 109 | .283 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1949 | Washington Senators | 27 | 14 | 65.9% | 50 | 104 | .325 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1938 | St. Louis Browns | 33 | 17 | 66.0% | 55 | 97 | .362 | 7 | N | N | ||
| 1985 | San Francisco Giants | 33 | 16 | 67.3% | 62 | 100 | .383 | 6 | N | N | N | |
| 2004 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 16 | 67.3% | 51 | 111 | .315 | 5 | N | N | N | N |
| 1948 | Chicago White Sox | 27 | 13 | 67.5% | 51 | 101 | .336 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1994 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 34 | 16 | 68.0% | 58 | 56 | .509 | 1 | ||||
| 1931 | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 15 | 68.1% | 58 | 96 | .377 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1939 | Philadelphia Athletics | 28 | 13 | 68.3% | 55 | 97 | .362 | 7 | N | N | ||
| 1945 | Philadelphia Athletics | 26 | 12 | 68.4% | 52 | 98 | .347 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1981 | Chicago Cubs | 26 | 12 | 68.4% | 38 | 65 | .369 | 6 | N | N | N | |
| 1979 | San Diego Padres | 37 | 17 | 68.5% | 68 | 93 | .422 | 5 | N | N | N | |
| 1922 | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 14 | 68.9% | 57 | 96 | .373 | 7 | N | N | ||
| 1993 | New York Mets | 40 | 18 | 69.0% | 59 | 103 | .364 | 7 | N | N | N |
Now for the most leads retained led by the Kerry Lightenberg-era Braves:
| Year | Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS | Won Div? | WC? | Won Lg? | Won WS? |
| 1998 | Atlanta Braves | 85 | 12 | 87.6% | 106 | 56 | .654 | 1 | Y | N | N | N |
| 2001 | Seattle Mariners | 84 | 4 | 95.5% | 116 | 46 | .716 | 1 | Y | N | N | N |
| 1998 | New York Yankees | 84 | 7 | 92.3% | 114 | 48 | .704 | 1 | Y | N | Y | Y |
| 1993 | San Francisco Giants | 80 | 5 | 94.1% | 103 | 59 | .636 | 2 | N | N | N | |
| 1944 | St. Louis Cardinals | 79 | 5 | 94.0% | 105 | 49 | .682 | 1 | Y | Y | ||
| 1954 | New York Yankees | 79 | 6 | 92.9% | 103 | 51 | .669 | 2 | N | N | ||
| 1986 | New York Mets | 78 | 4 | 95.1% | 108 | 54 | .667 | 1 | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1989 | Oakland Athletics | 78 | 4 | 95.1% | 99 | 63 | .611 | 1 | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1984 | Detroit Tigers | 77 | 5 | 93.9% | 104 | 58 | .642 | 1 | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1975 | Cincinnati Reds | 77 | 6 | 92.8% | 108 | 54 | .667 | 1 | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1942 | New York Yankees | 77 | 8 | 90.6% | 103 | 51 | .669 | 1 | Y | N | ||
| 1936 | New York Yankees | 77 | 9 | 89.5% | 102 | 51 | .667 | 1 | Y | Y | ||
| 1948 | Cleveland Indians | 77 | 11 | 87.5% | 97 | 58 | .626 | 1 | Y | Y | ||
| 2003 | New York Yankees | 77 | 11 | 87.5% | 101 | 61 | .623 | 1 | Y | N | Y | N |
And the '62 Mets retain the lead in least leads kept after six but those awful Phils teams of the past pepper the list:
| Year | Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS | Won Div? | WC? | Won Lg? | Won WS? |
| 1962 | New York Mets | 20 | 14 | 58.8% | 40 | 120 | .250 | 10 | N | N | ||
| 1911 | Boston Rustlers | 22 | 7 | 75.9% | 44 | 107 | .291 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1981 | New York Mets | 22 | 5 | 81.5% | 41 | 62 | .398 | 5 | N | N | N | |
| 1928 | Philadelphia Phillies | 23 | 12 | 65.7% | 43 | 109 | .283 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1952 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 10 | 70.6% | 42 | 112 | .273 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1953 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 10 | 70.6% | 50 | 104 | .325 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1904 | Washington Senators | 24 | 7 | 77.4% | 38 | 113 | .252 | 8 | N | |||
| 1909 | Boston Doves | 25 | 8 | 75.8% | 45 | 108 | .294 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1938 | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 7 | 78.1% | 45 | 105 | .300 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1939 | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 6 | 80.6% | 45 | 106 | .298 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1942 | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 3 | 89.3% | 42 | 109 | .278 | 8 | N | N |
As for the least leads lost, 14 lost tow or fewer. Remarkably, the 52-87 1901 Reds were able to retain all but one of their leads after six. I guess not leading that many games helps especially with a team with no saves:
| Year | Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS | Won Div? | WC? | Won Lg? | Won WS? |
| 1997 | Cincinnati Reds | 55 | 0 | 100.0% | 76 | 86 | .469 | 3 | N | N | N | N |
| 1954 | Cleveland Indians | 76 | 1 | 98.7% | 111 | 43 | .721 | 1 | Y | N | ||
| 1952 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 59 | 1 | 98.3% | 96 | 57 | .627 | 1 | Y | N | ||
| 1940 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 55 | 1 | 98.2% | 88 | 65 | .575 | 2 | N | N | ||
| 1901 | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 1 | 97.0% | 52 | 87 | .374 | 8 | N | |||
| 1942 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 76 | 2 | 97.4% | 104 | 50 | .675 | 2 | N | N | ||
| 1942 | St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 2 | 97.4% | 106 | 48 | .688 | 1 | Y | Y | ||
| 2001 | St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 2 | 97.4% | 93 | 69 | .574 | 2 | N | Y | N | N |
| 1935 | New York Giants | 65 | 2 | 97.0% | 91 | 62 | .595 | 3 | N | N | ||
| 1946 | New York Yankees | 65 | 2 | 97.0% | 87 | 67 | .565 | 3 | N | N | ||
| 1969 | New York Mets | 63 | 2 | 96.9% | 100 | 62 | .617 | 1 | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1973 | Detroit Tigers | 58 | 2 | 96.7% | 85 | 77 | .525 | 3 | N | N | N | |
| 1981 | St. Louis Cardinals | 44 | 2 | 95.7% | 59 | 43 | .578 | 1 | N | N | N | |
| 1981 | Toronto Blue Jays | 26 | 2 | 92.9% | 37 | 69 | .349 | 7 | N | N | N |
As for the most leads lost, there are some pretty good teams on the list (like the 2004 A's and '75 Dodgers). I guess lots of leads and some problems in the bullpen (like Octavio Dotel as your closer) will do that:
| Year | Team | Leads Kept | Leads Lost | % | W | L | PCT | POS | Won Div? | WC? | Won Lg? | Won WS? |
| 1950 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 35 | 19 | 64.8% | 57 | 96 | .373 | 8 | N | N | ||
| 1973 | Milwaukee Brewers | 47 | 19 | 71.2% | 74 | 88 | .457 | 5 | N | N | N | |
| 1939 | Detroit Tigers | 56 | 19 | 74.7% | 81 | 73 | .526 | 5 | N | N | ||
| 1993 | New York Mets | 40 | 18 | 69.0% | 59 | 103 | .364 | 7 | N | N | N | |
| 1954 | Cincinnati Redlegs | 52 | 18 | 74.3% | 74 | 80 | .481 | 5 | N | N | ||
| 1986 | Minnesota Twins | 53 | 18 | 74.6% | 71 | 91 | .438 | 6 | N | N | N | |
| 2004 | Oakland Athletics | 56 | 18 | 75.7% | 91 | 71 | .562 | 2 | N | N | N | N |
| 1975 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61 | 18 | 77.2% | 88 | 74 | .543 | 2 | N | N | N | |
| 1938 | St. Louis Browns | 33 | 17 | 66.0% | 55 | 97 | .362 | 7 | N | N | ||
| 1979 | San Diego Padres | 37 | 17 | 68.5% | 68 | 93 | .422 | 5 | N | N | N | |
| 1999 | Chicago Cubs | 41 | 17 | 70.7% | 67 | 95 | .414 | 6 | N | N | N | N |
| 2004 | Colorado Rockies | 46 | 17 | 73.0% | 68 | 94 | .420 | 4 | N | N | N | N |
| 1940 | Boston Red Sox | 49 | 17 | 74.2% | 82 | 72 | .532 | 5 | N | N |
So what does a team's lead retention rate tell you about their overall success? Well, not all that much it turns out. There is a slight correlation between lead retention rate after six and its winning percentage (coefficient of 0.600). Actually, winning percentage correlates a whole lot better to the number of leads retained after six (.867 coefficient), which makes sense—you have to have leads late in game, even if you blow some, to win ballgames. The number of leads lost have absolutely no correlation (-0.192) to overall winning percentage.
And finally, to totally beat this dead horse, winning percentage does correlate slightly better to leads retained after six (.867) than to total leads held, whether they were lost or retained (0.813). So it may be better to have lead and lost than to have never lead, but lead's labour's lost can bite you in A's.
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