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In the Bag? Well...
2006-03-27 22:44
With Jeff Bagwell's career apparently in jeopardy, I am left wondering how many teams have had two Hall of Famers retire on them. Last year's Astros could be the last team for two future Hall of Famers, Bagwell and Roger Clemens. No team has ever had more than two Hall of Famers play their last game in their lineup. There have actually been 16 instances in which two HoF players have retired from the same team. The last time was 34 years ago when Maz and Clemente played their last games for the Pirates (and yes, I know, Clemente didn't "retire"let it go). Here is the full list. Note that both St. Louis teams had two future HoFers up and quit on them in 1937:
Oh, so you may have noticed that I skimmed over the part where I assumed Bagwell is a Hall of Famer (and don't embarrass yourself by arguing that Clemens may not be one). Yes, my basic assumption is that Bagwell is not only a Hall of Famer, he's a better than average for HoF first basemen. Let's test that theory. I ran a query for all HoF first sackers and took their average for various stats (Note: Banks and Carew qualify since the played more games at first than any other position):
(And yes, George Kelly is one of the worst Hall of Famers at there.) OK, Bagwell exceeds those numbers (i.e., the averages) in all stats but at-bats, hits, and batting average. Putting Bagwell in the Hall will improve the average stats for players at his position. If that's not a definition for a first-ballot Hall of Famer, I don't know what is (and I don't). I'll even offer that there is plenty of talent at first that is not in the Hall. What if you took all first baseman with at least 300 Win Shares who are not in the Hall, would their averages for the various statistical categories be better than the averages for those in the Hall? Let's see:
It's pretty close. If Olerud had had an extra trip to the DL in his career, the non-Hall group would trounce the Hall guys. So what's the point? Bagwell is arguably the best first baseman not in the Hall even without a number of flashy Hall-worthy numbers (500 homers, 3000 hits, three major felonies, etc.). With Palmeiro and possibly McGwire facing steroid backlash, Bagwell's case looks even better. And who knows? Maybe somebody they will let that Dick/Richie Allen in at some point.
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Hmm, I wonder if in 100 years the names Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Todd Helton, etc will be as obscure as George Kelly, Jake Beckley, Roger Connor, and Dan Brouthers are today...
You could also go have a chat with Biggio, see if you can get him to retire, and then you'd have your first 3-retirement team.
And I agree that Bagwell should be a HOF lock.
But Bagwell is even better. I rate him as 3rd-best 1st baseman, after Gehrig and Foxx. Bagwell was 3 times the best player in baseball: in 1999, 1996, and 1994. Even with 3 subpar yrs at the end, he finished with an EqA (according to BP) of .321, with 1660 EqR. Those are tremendous numbers. Defensively, he was above-average, with a Rate of 103. And almost 400 career WS. And 4 yrs with at least 30 WS.
If Bagwell is obscure 100 yrs from now, it will be because baseball itself is (God forbid) obscure.
Even if you do give credit to Bagwell for being the best player in MLB 3 times, you can very seriously argue Pujols that Pujols has been up there in each of his 5 seasons already. The older 1Bs may not match Bagwell's all-around #s but Thome will almost certainly finish with more HRs and Helton with higher counting stats. While it remains to be seen what the younger generation will do, one wonders what sort of astronomical (no pun intended) statistics they will finish up with, not having to play half of their career in an Astrodome, Old Yankee Stadium (Gehrig) or (Pujols) Busch.
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