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Getting To Number 1 As A Number 2?
2006-01-23 09:40
by Mike Carminati

According to reports Barry Bonds doesn't like the idea of batting in the two hole instead of his typical cleanup spot, an idea floated by manager Felipe Alou in the tedium of the offseason. He might be a bit hasty however.

If Bonds were batting #2, his plate appearances would potentially go up by 5%. This is based on the total number of plate appearances for major-league #2 hitters and #4 hitters for last season (i.e., 22261 vs. 21243 TPA). So 5%, that's it? Big deal! Right?

Well, if we base Barry's performance for 2006 on his last full season, 2004, the results are intriguing. Now, before we delve into them, I will concede that Bonds, a 41-year-old coming off an injury-plagued season, will have great difficulty duplicating his success from two years ago, but the man is from Krypton and I wouldn't put anything past him. If that does not allay your concerns, we'll address them in due time.

Here is Bonds' projection for 2006 based on his 2004 stats with the additional 5% more plate appearances as a number two hitter. Also, are his projected career totals after 2006 as a number 2 and a number 4 hitter this year:

SEASONTEAMGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCS
2004-#2147391135141283471062434361
Career #2287795312213288359280755195925541477512142
Career #4287795132207287759180753195425431475512142

Note the 755 home run total as a number 2 hitter. Hmmm, maybe batting #2 aint so bad after all. Of course, the situations he would face as a number two would be different from those he would see as the cleanup guy, but I would expect certain numbers like RBI to be affected more than homers. I think the additional at-bats with the bases empty would compensate for being pitched around more with the number three hitter behind rather than the number five (especially now that their old #3 hitter, J.T. Snow, is in Boston).

But the naysayers aren't convinced. They are still upset about basing his 2006 season on 2004 data. OK, let's base it on his 2005 numbers (i.e., times ten to reflect a, hopefully, injury-free season):

2005 #21404408412610052105946300
Career #4287095602158286257477758195324011494506141
Career #2287095802162286857477760195824051497506141

This scenario plays out a bit better for Bonds. Either way, he projects to be the home run king by this time next year though he would have an extra two dingers as a number-two guy.

Then again, with 5% more plate appearances mean 5% more times hit by a pitch, and that underscores the real issue with Bonds' 2006: the potential for injury. If I were Felipe Alou, I would do whatever I could to protect the greatest hitter in the game from injury. So if Barry feels more comfortable as a cleanup hitter, let him bat cleanup. Or would you rather have an outfield of Moises Alou, Randy Winn, and Steve Finley?

Comments
2006-01-23 17:52:29
1.   das411
Looks like Barry doesn't want the WBC to take away any of those homers either.
2006-01-23 20:41:07
2.   Mike Carminati
Can't say as I blame him.

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