Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : The Year Of Ryan Franklin

The Year Of Ryan Franklin

2006-01-05 20:51

by Mike Carminati

The Phils today filled their last rotation spot by signing a big-name free-agent pitcher.

Was it the Rocket, Roger Clemens, you ask. Kevin Brown? Wade Miller? Scotty Erickson? Jose Lima? Al Leiter? Jeff Weaver? It aint Wendell Wilkie?

No, it was Ryan Franklin! The sucky pitcher who was suspended for steroid use, you ask? Yes, that's the guy. The Phils are giving him $2.6M for one year's worth of work. I'd be happier if they had signed this Franklin (Roosevelt, that is):

Or even this Franklin.

And I thought Ed Wade hated young players. Pat Gillick have four viable choices amongst the youngsters for the final two rotations spots. They are Ryan Madson, Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito, and Gavin Floyd. Floyd tanked last year in a brief trial gut has been considered a top prospect for years. Brito and Tejeda were non-prospects who pitched well in brief trials. And Madson was the staff savior for about a year and a half (until the Phils over-relied and overused him last year) and deserves a shot at the rotation.

So who does Pat Gillick—a man for whom I have less respect as each day passes—nab to bolster his staff? A guy who was 8-15 with a 5.10 ERA who struck out just 4.39 strikeouts in nine innings and had just 1.5 strikeouts per base on balls (plus the suspension) in 2005. And his 2004 wasn't much better (4-16, 4.90).

But to "(I Can't) Stand" Pat Gillick, Franklin was a "durable" "competitor who pitches deep into ballgames and has been a consistent starter in the American League for the last few years." Consistent? Yeah, consistently execrable.

I wondered how many pitchers lost 15 games or more and had an ERA over 4.50 for two straight years like Franklin has done. And for those pitchers, what have they done the next season (Franklin is only signed for a year) and for the rest of their careers?

I looked it up. There have been 32 pitchers, only five of whom have done it in the last fifty years. Here they are in reverse chronological order with the two years (Yr1 & Yr2) that qualify him for the dubious list, his next season (Yr3), and his career record after the two abysmal years:

Pitcher	Yr1	W	L	ERA	Yr2	W	L	ERA	Yr3	W	L	ERA	Post W	Post L	ERA
Steve Trachsel	1999	8	18	5.56	2000	8	15	4.80	2001	11	13	4.46	50	47	3.91
Mike Morgan	1986	11	17	4.53	1987	12	17	4.65	1988	1	6	5.43	108	124	4.02
Neal Heaton	1984	12	15	5.21	1985	9	17	4.90	1986	7	15	4.08	48	55	4.08
Diego Segui	1964	8	17	4.56	1965	5	15	4.64	1966	3	7	5.00	62	68	3.55
Russ Kemmerer	1958	6	15	4.61	1959	8	17	4.50	1960	6	5	3.59	16	12	4.12
Bobo Newsom	1941	12	20	4.60	1942	13	19	4.73	1943	13	13	4.22	65	81	3.38
Vern Kennedy	1939	9	20	5.80	1940	12	17	5.59	1941	3	11	5.17	25	51	4.06
Hugh Mulcahy	1938	10	20	4.61	1939	9	16	4.99	1940	13	22	3.60	16	29	3.77
Hugh Mulcahy	1937	8	18	5.13	1938	10	20	4.61	1939	9	16	4.99	25	45	4.22
Jack Knott	1936	9	17	7.29	1937	8	18	4.89	1938	6	12	4.19	43	49	4.50
Chief Hogsett	1936	13	16	5.58	1937	6	19	6.29	1938	5	6	6.03	5	6	5.64
Dolly Gray	1930	4	15	6.28	1931	11	24	5.09	1932	7	12	4.53	14	16	4.38
Jack Russell	1930	9	20	5.45	1931	10	18	5.16	1932	6	14	5.25	45	57	4.46
Ray Benge	1929	11	15	6.29	1930	11	15	5.70	1931	14	18	3.17	69	82	4.04
Ray Benge	1928	8	18	4.55	1929	11	15	6.29	1930	11	15	5.70	80	97	4.30
Joe Oeschger	1922	6	21	5.06	1923	5	15	5.68	1924	4	7	4.01	5	9	4.59
Gus Weyhing	1898	15	26	4.51	1899	17	21	4.54	1900	6	6	4.47	6	7	4.70
Red Donahue	1896	7	24	5.80	1897	10	35	6.13	1898	16	17	3.55	148	115	2.97
Bill Hart	1896	12	29	5.12	1897	9	27	6.26	1898	5	9	4.82	12	20	4.23
Bill Hart	1895	14	17	4.75	1896	12	29	5.12	1897	9	27	6.26	21	47	5.27
Bill Hutchison	1894	14	16	6.06	1895	13	21	4.73	1896				1	4	6.08
Tom Parrott	1894	17	19	5.60	1895	11	18	5.47	1896	1	1	6.21	1	1	6.21
Red Ehret	1894	19	21	5.14	1895	6	19	6.02	1896	18	14	3.42	29	31	4.25
Al Maul	1893	12	21	5.30	1894	11	15	5.94	1895	10	5	2.45	39	21	3.21
Pink Hawley	1893	5	17	4.60	1894	19	27	4.90	1895	31	22	3.18	137	121	3.79
Bill Hutchison	1893	16	24	4.75	1894	14	16	6.06	1895	13	21	4.73	14	25	4.89
Willie McGill	1893	17	18	4.61	1894	7	19	5.84	1895	10	8	5.55	15	12	5.46
Bert Cunningham	1889	16	19	4.87	1890	12	24	5.63	1891	11	14	4.01	92	93	4.05
George Keefe	1889	8	18	5.13	1890	6	16	6.52	1891	0	3	2.68	0	3	2.68
Stump Wiedman	1886	12	36	4.50	1887	17	16	5.00	1888	1	1	3.50	1	1	3.50
Pete Conway	1885	10	17	4.67	1886	11	20	4.95	1887	8	9	2.90	40	24	2.53
John Coleman	1883	12	48	4.87	1884	5	17	4.72	1885	2	2	3.43	6	7	3.84
Avg		11	20	5.17		10	19	5.32		8	11	4.34	39	43	4.21

So on average the have gone 8-11 with a 4.34 ERA in their next year and 39-43, 4.21 for the rest of their careers. If the Phils get anything near that I will be overjoyed. Steve Traschel did turn his career around after having two seasons as bad as Fraklin's 2004 & 2005, however.

I guess it doesn't matter since this team is as close to a lock for third in the NL East as you can get. They may as well give Buster Bluth and Franklin, that "one cool [bleep]", a spot in the rotation.

Comments

2006-01-06 07:30:27

1. FrankMc01

Good points- I've linked to it if you don't mind. I love these puposeful strides to 78 wins or so.

http://frankmcgrath.blogspot.com/2006/01/march-to-77.html

2006-01-06 07:41:23

2. Mike Carminati

Thanks, Frank. And Mobity Mosley thanks you.

I have no idea if will be 77 or 85 wins, but they will finish behind the Mets and Braves and ahead of the Nats and Marlins. Given how bad the Marlins will be (think Cleveland Spiders bad), the Phils could pick up a number of cheap wins to get above .500. No matter, this is a team with a great deal of fungible talent.

Good points on why Franklin is just the type of pitcher you do not want at Citizens Bank Park: lots of walks and dingers.