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The IBB and Flow of the Intentional Walk
2005-09-13 21:45
by Mike Carminati

I can't help but wonder if with Barry Bonds' return will the intentional walk make a comeback. If you hadn't noticed, the majors decided to give a free pass to Bonds whenever and wherever possible even with the bases loaded once or twice.

In the process, Bonds more than doubled the IBB record albeit for a stat that was not kept before 1955.Here are the all-time single-season leaders in intentional walks. You might note a trend:

NameYrIBB
Barry Bonds2004120
Barry Bonds200268
Barry Bonds200361
Willie McCovey196945
Barry Bonds199343
Willie McCovey197040
Sammy Sosa200137
Barry Bonds200135
Barry Bonds199734
Ted Williams195733
John Olerud199333
Vladimir Guerrero200232
Kevin Mitchell198932
Barry Bonds199232
George Brett198531

Bonds appears seven times among the top fifteen seasons. To make the point even clearer, here are the major-league leaders in intentional walks over the last 15 seasons:

YrNameIBB
2005Albert Pujols24
2004Barry Bonds120
2003Barry Bonds61
2002Barry Bonds68
2001Sammy Sosa37
2000Vladimir Guerrero23
1999Mark McGwire21
1998Barry Bonds29
1997Barry Bonds34
1996Barry Bonds30
1995Frank Thomas29
1994Mo Vaughn20
1993Barry Bonds43
1992Barry Bonds32
1991Fred McGriff26
1990Andre Dawson21
1990Eddie Murray21

Bonds earned the IBB crown eight times between 1992 and 2004. This year, Pujols leads with the lowest total for a major-league leader in a non-strike year since 1990 and potentially a third as much as Bonds collected last year.

So Bonds' absence has affected the intentional walks total at the top of the food chain, but what about the majors in general? Have the IBB totals dropped off suddenly without Bonds? Let's see…

Here is a table of total intentional walks and plate appearances across the majors with the ratio of IBBs per PA per year for the last fifteen seasons (2005 totals are through last nights games):

YrIBBPARatio
200510561637630.64%
200413811885190.73%
200313161874370.70%
200214521866060.78%
200113831869610.74%
200012101902420.64%
199911051896750.58%
199810671882570.57%
199711681755130.67%
199613411772420.76%
199511051566910.71%
199410081244720.81%
199314771745460.85%
199213151605160.82%
199112281607300.76%
199013841603010.86%

You may notice that the IBB rate dropped severely this year, but it is identical to 2000's value, and that was the last year before the majors went walk-crazy all over Bonds. Also, the rates even during the height of walk Bonds fever were lower than the rates up to the early Nineties.

To make the breakdown clearer, here are the totals per decade:

DecadeIBBPARatio
1950s 3,631.00 474,502.00 0.77%
1960s 10,399.00 1,209,457.00 0.86%
1970s 13,443.00 1,510,768.00 0.89%
1980s 13,024.00 1,551,695.00 0.84%
1990s 12,198.00 1,667,943.00 0.73%
2000s 7,798.00 1,103,528.00 0.71%
Total 60,493.00 7,517,893.00 0.80%

Free pass totals have been dropping steadily since the Seventies, even with the wacky Bonds totals of late. So what does that mean? Baseball seems to be wising up slowly and steadily to the ills of the intentional walk even as they have been bending the standards for the greatest player in the game.

Consider it another Barry Shift.

Comments
2005-09-14 14:54:19
1.   King of the Hobos
"This year, Pujols leads with the lowest total for a major-league leader in a non-strike year since 1990"

What about 2000 (23) and 1999 (21)? Seems those are both smaller than Pujols' 24

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