Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The NL East is getting mighty crowded. With all five teams within 5.5 games of each other, the fifth place team, Florida (at least for the time being), is closer to first than all but two of the other division's second-place teams.
Any of the five teams could and for a time have gotten hot and made a run. It seemed that the Nationals could mount a commanding lead, but the smart money's now on Atlanta, who have finally taken a half-game division lead. I thought the Marlins would give the Braves some trouble, but they now seem set to play the seller—witness the A.J. Burnett sweepstakes—at the trade deadline. The Phils and Mets don't seem good enough to win it but no one else is good enough to put them away, and theories abound as to what the role they will play as the trade deadline nears.
Tonight the Nats got whacked by Roger Clemens and the suddenly hot Astros, 14-1, falling a half-game behind the Braves. The Braves just tied D-Backs in the top of the ninth. The Phils beat the Padres, 8-6, in eleven innings. The Mets lost 6-5 to the Dodgers, and Florida is losing 8-5 to the Giants in San Fran. By tomorrow the could be between 4.5 and 6.5 games apart, but this is how they look right now:
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | L10 |
| Atlanta | 54 | 42 | .563 | - | Won 1 | 5-5 |
| Washington | 54 | 43 | .557 | 0.5 | Lost 3 | 2-8 |
| Philadelphia | 50 | 47 | .515 | 4.5 | Won 1 | 6-4 |
| NY Mets | 49 | 47 | .510 | 5 | Lost 1 | 6-4 |
| Florida | 47 | 46 | .505 | 5.5 | Won 2 | 3-7 |
All of this got me thinking about what the closest a last-place team had ever been to first when the season ended, but I already looked at that. So then I thought, with all of the NL East teams over .500, what are the best records for last-place teams. Here they are:
| Tm | Yr | Lg | Div | W | L | PCT | Pos | GB |
| California Angels | 1991 | AL | W | 81 | 81 | .500 | 7 | 14 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1982 | AL | E | 78 | 84 | .481 | 7 | 17 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1987 | NL | E | 76 | 85 | .472 | 6 | 19 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1997 | AL | E | 76 | 86 | .469 | 5 | 22 |
| San Diego Padres | 1997 | NL | W | 76 | 86 | .469 | 4 | 14 |
| San Diego Padres | 2000 | NL | W | 76 | 86 | .469 | 5 | 21 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1996 | AL | C | 75 | 86 | .466 | 5 | 24 |
| New York Mets | 2002 | NL | E | 75 | 86 | .466 | 5 | 27 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1995 | NL | W | 67 | 77 | .465 | 4 | 11 |
| Oakland Athletics | 1995 | AL | W | 67 | 77 | .465 | 4 | 12 |
| California Angels | 1987 | AL | W | 75 | 87 | .463 | 7 | 10 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1975 | NL | E | 75 | 87 | .463 | 6 | 18 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1984 | NL | E | 75 | 87 | .463 | 6 | 22 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1994 | AL | C | 53 | 62 | .461 | 5 | 15 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1994 | AL | E | 53 | 62 | .461 | 5 | 18 |
Well, they are a lot of last-place teams on that list after the three-division gerrymandering of 1994. What about just looking at fifth-place teams to get a better comparison? Here are all the fifth-place teams that were .500 or better:
| Tm | Yr | Lg | Div | W | L | PCT | Pos | GB |
| Boston Red Sox | 1981 | AL | E | 59 | 49 | .546 | 5 | 2.5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1983 | AL | E | 87 | 75 | .537 | 5 | 11 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1978 | AL | E | 86 | 76 | .531 | 5 | 14 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1979 | AL | E | 85 | 76 | .528 | 5 | 18 |
| New York Yankees | 1988 | AL | E | 85 | 76 | .528 | 5 | 3.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1984 | AL | E | 85 | 77 | .525 | 5 | 19 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1986 | AL | E | 84 | 78 | .519 | 5 | 12 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1980 | AL | E | 84 | 78 | .519 | 5 | 19 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1991 | AL | W | 83 | 79 | .512 | 5 | 12 |
| Houston Astros | 1988 | NL | W | 82 | 80 | .506 | 5 | 13 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1985 | AL | E | 81 | 81 | .500 | 5 | 19 |
| Houston Astros | 1969 | NL | W | 81 | 81 | .500 | 5 | 12 |
Ok, on a related topic, you may have noticed that parity abounds with so many teams in contention in both leagues. Ten teams in the AL and nine in the NL are at .500 or better. That's 19 of the 30 teams in the majors. I wondered how that ranks historically. Here are the leagues with the largest percentage of .500 or better teams. The AL in 2005 would be sixth:
| Yr | Lg | >=.500 | <.500 | % |
| 1991 | AL | 11 | 3 | 78.57% |
| 1895 | NL | 9 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 1926 | AL | 6 | 2 | 75.00% |
| 1969 | NL | 9 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 1979 | AL | 10 | 4 | 71.43% |
| 2005 | AL | 10 | 4 | 71.43% |
| 1962 | NL | 7 | 3 | 70.00% |
| 1963 | NL | 7 | 3 | 70.00% |
| 1982 | NL | 8 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 1981 | AL | 9 | 5 | 64.29% |
And here are the years with the highest percentage for all teams. 2005 would have the highest percentage in 110 years:
| Yr | >=.500 | <.500 | % |
| 1895 | 9 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 2005 | 19 | 11 | 63.33% |
| 1879 | 5 | 3 | 62.50% |
| 1883 | 10 | 6 | 62.50% |
| 1926 | 10 | 6 | 62.50% |
| 1937 | 10 | 6 | 62.50% |
| 1939 | 10 | 6 | 62.50% |
| 1948 | 10 | 6 | 62.50% |
| 1969 | 15 | 9 | 62.50% |
| 1979 | 16 | 10 | 61.54% |
| 1981 | 16 | 10 | 61.54% |
| 1991 | 16 | 10 | 61.54% |
Finally, here are the percentages per decade. The decade, though just 5.5 years in, has the highest percentage of .500 or better clubs:
| Decade | >=.500 | <.500 | % |
| 1870s | 37 | 41 | 47.44% |
| 1880s | 78 | 81 | 49.06% |
| 1890s | 72 | 66 | 52.17% |
| 1900s | 76 | 76 | 50.00% |
| 1910s | 86 | 90 | 48.86% |
| 1920s | 84 | 76 | 52.50% |
| 1930s | 86 | 74 | 53.75% |
| 1940s | 79 | 81 | 49.38% |
| 1950s | 79 | 81 | 49.38% |
| 1960s | 107 | 91 | 54.04% |
| 1970s | 129 | 117 | 52.44% |
| 1980s | 138 | 122 | 53.08% |
| 1990s | 131 | 147 | 47.12% |
| 2000s | 99 | 81 | 55.00% |
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