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Monthly archives: July 2004
I'm Not Going To Take It Anymore
2004-07-30 21:42
We owe you one. We owe you…ONE [holding up finger] —Dr. J., Julius Erving, presenting the 76ers promise to the Philly fans in a TV commercial after Sixers loss to the Trailblazers in the 1976-77 NBA Finals Yes We Can —Team rallying cry coined by second baseman Dave Cash in 1974, before leaving for Montreal as a free agent Corrales a pennant —1982 Phils slogan referring to manager Pat Corrales who was fired before they went to the Series the next season thereby never "corralling" a single thing for the team You Gotta Believe —Slogan Phils copped from Mets for the 1980 World Series by Tug McGraw, who then turned around and told New York that they could "take this championship and shove it." Now is the Time —2004 Phillies slogan, a team whose only in-season roster change so far during the season has been to sign 36-year-old journeyman and Devil Ray-rejectee Paul Abbott (currently 1-5 with a 6.23 ERA in 9 starts) Well, I'll tell you what happened: I just ran out of BS… All I know is, you've got to get mad…I want you to get mad. I don't want you to protest, I don't want you to riot, I don't want you to write to your congressman…All I know is that first... You've got to get mad. I want you to go to the window, open it, stick your head out and yell: "I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore." —Peter Finch in "Network" What the f' happened to the Delta I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer... —Senator John "Bluto" Blutarsky, "Animal House" F' Casper Gomez and F' the F'ing Diaz brothers. F'em all. I bury those cock-a-roaches. —Tony Montana Skip: You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry! Larry: Lollygaggers! Skip: Lollygaggers. (shaking head in shame) —"Bull Durham" Today [actually yesterday] is a day that will live in infamy —Franklin D. Roosevelt named for the FDR Drive That's it man. Game over, man! Game over!… In case you haven't been paying attention to current events, we just got our asses kicked, pal! —Bill Paxton as Hudson in "Aliens" We should be embarrassed. I’m the manager. I’m not even playing and I’m embarrassed. —Phils manager Larry Bowa after their 12th straight loss in Miami I know it was you Fredo. You broke my heart. You broke my heart! —Michael Corleone Looks like I've picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue. —Lloyd "Quien es mas macho?" Bridges in Airplane On June 17, 1992 the Philadelphia 76ers traded their best player and seven-year veteran Charles Barkley to the Phoenix Suns for Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry, and Andrew Lang. Barkley would earn MVP honors as he led the Suns to the finals. The Sixers saying that Barkley would not fit in then-new coach Doug Moe's offensive scheme, proceeded to draft Clarence Weatherspoon from Southern Mississippi in the first round of the NBA draft. Weatherspoon was nicknamed the "Baby Barkley" for the way his game resembled that of Sir Charles. Doug Moe lasted less than a season and was fired with a 19-37 record. The team finished no higher than sixth in their division every season until 19976-98. 1995-96 was the sixth straight season in which their losses increased (they were 18-64). The Sixers wouldn't make the playoffs again until 1998-99, led by Allen Iverson. I officially dropped my allegiance to the team when they duplicitously drafted Weatherspoon after dropping Barkley. I vowed never to follow the team until owner Harold Katz sold the team. In 1996 he did: he sold the Sixers to Comcast and Pat Croce, the team's former physical therapist, was named president. When I dropped my 76er alliance, I decided to follow Sir Charles, my favorite player at the time, to the Suns. I became a Suns fan but was mostly a Barkley fan. However, when he went from Phoenix to Houston, a team I never much cared for, and the Sixers changed ownership, I returned to the fold, reluctantly but triumphantly. I got to experience a team being rebuilt into the best team in the East, and it was quite enjoyable. The Sixers were again a one-star team (Iverson), as they had been (at most) since their 1982-83 championship team, which was led by two, Dr. J and Moses Malone. That star, Iverson, again was a bad boy type who spoke his mind and had unpopular opinions (like Barkley). Given that the team faded after their sole appearance in the finals and especially after former coach Larry Brown led the Pistons to an NBA championship, it became imperative, according to the majority of fans and members of the media, that Iverson go since he reportedly did not fit into future…Everything old is new again. Philadelphia is a second-tier sports city. Its mediocrity bespeaks its inferiority complex due to its close proximity to New York. No Philadelphia team has won a championship since the Jim Mora-led Philadelphia Stars of the USFL won the league championship in 1984. They moved to Baltimore in 1985 and won the last USFL championship that year. The Sixers last won a championship in the 1982-83 season. The Phillies won the only championship in their 121-year history in 1980. The Flyers last won the Stanley Cup in the 1974-75 season and have lost in the finals five times since. The Eagles have not won an NFL championship since the advent of the Super Bowl, their last championship coming in 1960. They have lost the last three National Football Conference Championships, the last step before the Super Bowl, in a row. They made one appearance in a Super Bowl losing 27-10 to Oakland, a team they beaten handily earlier in the season, in Super Bowl XV (1980). As far as Philly dynasties, the Flyers won two Stanley Cups in 1973-74 and 1974-75 and the Eagles won two NFL championships in a row 1948-49. Then there are the A's who won in 1910-11 and 1929-30, but in between they were historically bad and they have since left for greener pastures. That's it. No other Philadelphia franchise has ever won two championships in a row. How pathetic is that? Baseball teams in Boston and Chicago claim to be cursed. The New England Patriots just won their second Super Bowl in three years. The Celtics were a basketball dynasty for decades. Chicago saw Michael Jordan lead their Bulls to six NBA championships. Their Bears are one of the more storied teams in the NFL. Chicago and Boston fans are a bunch of mewling pansies. Do you want to know what a curse is? I'll tell you. It's living in a city whose sports champions in recent memory can be counted on one hand. That's what. In the last 25 years, Philadelphia has one World Series champion, one NBA champion, and one USFL champion. That's it. In the last twenty, they have none. The Phillies best known team, the Whiz Kids, lost the World Series in four straight. That team would not finish above fourth place again until 1964, the year they were 6-1/2 games ahead with twelve games to play but lost ten games in a row to fall out of first into a tie for second, one game back, one of the greatest collapses in baseball history. "Ooh, a fan interfered with a ball and then we lost the seventh game of the league championship series." "Oh, my star pitcher stayed in the ballgame too long and we lost the seventh game of the ALCS". "Oh, boo hoo." They couldn't take one season steeped in the Steve Jeltz-laden abyss that is the Philly sports world. So what am I yammering on about? Yesterday, the Phils lost their 14th straight road game in a row against their NL East rivals and current World Series champs, the Marlins. They now stand two games over .500, 3-1/2 games behind division-leading Atlanta. The way that they lost the last game speaks volumes about this team: 10-1 with their sole mid-season acquisition Paul Abbott giving up eight runs in three innings and taking the loss. The only run in the game came when on hits by two utility players (Tomas Perez and Todd Pratt). They were outscored 32-9 in the four-game series. Abbott's 10-1 game four loss and flailing erstwhile number one starter, Millwood's 11-3 loss in game one book-ended the series nicely. This series opened a 13-game road trip for the Phils. They don’t play another divisional rival until the Braves come to town on August 31. After the series, the media were circling the clubhouse awaiting manager Larry Bowa's dismissal. Bowa has been on the hot seat all season. Rumors of the Phils acquiring center fielder Steve Finley and pitcher Kris Benson have cooled as the trade "deadline" approaches this weekend. [Benson has since been traded to the Mets.] Repeat After Me…The Phils have arguably the worst manager in baseball, they haven't had a credible center fielder since Bowa gaslighted Marlon Byrd out of Philadelphia, and their starting rotation, which was a collection of number two and three starters with potential, has become the sum of its liabilities and is devolving into chaos. And yet none of those is the Phils' biggest problem. The Phils entered the season as the popular favorites to win the division. Phils management, which had historically, to quote Johnny Sack on The Sopranos, treated nickels like manhole covers, had finally opened the coffers as they prepared to move into the new stadium. They acquired Jim Thome, David Bell, Kevin Millwood, Billy Wagner, and Eric Milton and re-signed Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell to big contracts. That was great. Then they opened the stadium, the fans came, and management went back in their holes. They've made their money and obviously don't care whether the Phils remain competitive or not, as long as it doesn't affect their bottom line. So what can we do as average fans? We can affect their bottom line. Boycott the team. Don't buy tickets to future games at the new ballpark. If you already have tickets, don’t use them, don't show up at the park. Don't eat at their concession stands or park in their parking lots. I love Harry Kalas, but I'm saying that we should not even watch them on TV. Just ignore them. Until they comply with our demands. What demands? First, enough is enough: Bowa should go. That's basically a given. However, that's no the be-all end-all. I thought Joe Kerrigan would be a great addition when he was hired as pitching coach, but his tenure has been as total and complete failure and the situation in each of the last two seasons has rapidly deteriorated. His welcome is well worn out. Bye bye. Management has to get the players they need. They need a starting pitcher and a center fielder minimum. They have some completely superfluous players that are still valuable. Ryan Howard is languishing in the minors. It is highly unlikely that he will even be a useful player to this team. Trade him. They have two competent second basemen, Placido Polanco and Chase Utley. Utley is younger and has more power and potential. I like Polanco, but he's completely unnecessary. Get rid of him. Until and unless they make all of these moves, this team won't compete. That's fine, but we don't have go along for the ride. This team has too much talent not to win this division. The Braves on paper should not win this division. But they don't play the games on paper. The Braves still have the infrastructure that helped them win eleven division crowns. If you gave John Schuerholz, Bobby Cox, and Leo Mazzone this team, they would be ten games up right now.
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Gross American Product
2004-07-29 23:15
By Gregor Gross Since Mike showed us which team stats really count when it comes to winning, I thought it was about time to see who really belongs at the top of the Power Rankings. We learned, I thought, how different statistics correlate to winning percentages, so why not rank the teams after the stats they have accumulated in 2004 so far and see who'll come out on top? So I took four popular stats for pitching and batting and ranked all teams. Then I multiplied their ranking in that statistic with its correlation, did that for all stats and added those figures together. In the end, the lowest figure should show the best team. I took these stats and their correlations for pitching and batting:
Since I am a young German, and the new generation over here is famous for its laziness, I said let's do this only for the American League today. For the National League, I said, tomorrow would be fine. But before we go for the pitching rankings, I just want to say to you that this will make no more sense than anything Buster Olney over there at ESPN has to say:
And batting?
So what do we learn from this? We see why the Twins outperform their Exp. W%. They pitch so well. We see that the Red Sox can hit while the Royals can't. We also see that when BP told us that Johan Santana in 2004 might win a Cy Young because he faces the Tigers and Indians so often, they quite underestimated how tough it is to pitch against those offenses. We also see, by the way, how good it is to be a Tribe fan after all. But I'm straying a bit here. So on to the overall rankings, which basically is pitching and batting together:
Isn't this a terrifying scientific work? Before you hit the streets telling everyone the Indians are the eighth best team in the American League because some German fellow told you so on a Phillies fan's website that you read daily, please note, however, that all these rankings are for today only. It could look a bit different tomorrow. As with Buster Olneys b(aseballb)urps, it comes with a big grain of salt. Who tells me what it is gets lots of smooches!
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Joe Morgan Chat Da(y) Ali G Show, Part II
2004-07-28 21:53
Some of yous asked, right, for a way to translate like wot I iz bangin' on about. I guess yous Americans don't recognize like da main bitch's English. Anyway, in da house's a glossary, like dem had in dat book "A Chocolate Orange", as well as a translata or two from english to ali g bang. Just fa wicked, in da house's a website translata into me lingo. Aiii. Da Wicked (Bad) (continued like)Darren Chicago: What seems to be the deal with Sammy Sosa? Could he still be trying to find his rhythm after the time on the DL? Or is it possible that his skills and career are beginning to decline? The Sosa I see now is the Sosa of 96-97 who struck out ALOT... Is this a phase?
Anyway, the geeza isn't strikin' out more. 'E's strikin out less dan last year and walkin more. In da house's a table of 'is strikeouts, walks (excludin' intentional), and westside runs pa plate appearance fa each season and fa 'is carea. Checkit:
'Is 2004 season isn't far accordin' to dose ratios from is 2000 season. 'Is average is just fifty points lowa' and 'e's missed more time. But da geeza is 35 now, wot do yous expect, every playa to be Barry Bonds? Dieter - sf: Joe - what's your take on the Zambrano situation earlier this week? He complains that Edmonds got cocky, yet, Zambrano is constantly jumping around on the mound after K's, pointing fingers, etc. Should Dusty do somehting here?
As far as wot Edmond did to provoke da plunkin, afta he was 'it da first time, he trotted down to first wiv no incident, no stares, no apparent comments. Afta 'is 'oma in da fourf, he simply ran da bases: he didn't celebrate or gloat at all. Checkit. Scott (New Lenox, IL): Joe: Have you and Ryne Sandberg finally put aside your differences?
I think Bill Mazeroski is the best defensive 2B I ever saw.—Natta about your non-sequitor. Obviously, Sandberg was known more fa is offense than is defense. innit da discussion, and obviously, Maz's and Sandberg's offense wuzn't comparable. Me would dig da little "Mingin 'Arry" turn at da end. Is yous a bit paranoid or wot, Joe? Katie (DC): Page2 has a you on their poll of best batting stances, who do you think has teh best stance?
Jason (Madison): Craig counsell...no contest
One problem wiv Counsell's bein da wickedest stance, all da udders bein discussed actually could 'it. Hank (NYC): Mr. Morgan -- Always a pleasure to hear you announce. Especially when you sit down with Barry as you did during the All-Star game. Thanks. Now -- for probably the umpteenth time today -- with Prior going down last night, do you think the Cubs should forgo the middle man (Boston and Nomar) and deal directly with the D-Backs in order to get Randy as a replacement and send their young pitching prospects to Arizona?
Deebo (Fairview, NJ): Hey Joe! My question involves the current marketing situation in baseball. I was in Montreal for the first time two weeks ago and one of my priorities was to see the Expos before they are possibly relocated. I knew that they were playing the Blue Jays, and the schedule said they were playing in Montreal. To my major disappointment it turned out the teams were playing in Puerto Rico! I understand that both Montreal and Toronto are lousy, and fan interest is at an all-time low, but certianly they could have produced at least 2-3 times the gate of a normal Expos game, considering the rivalry. My question is, whose bright idea was it from MLB was it to have the two Canadian teams playing somewhere other than Canada??? This to me was a bad job by Major League Baseball.
Maybe yous should ave looked at da expos sex life [trans. "schedule"] before yous went to check them. Of course, it is silly to 'ave da two canadian crews play in Puerto Rico, but dat is a mina issue compared to da opun sore dat da expos story 'as bin fa years. Chicago Guy: Hi Joe! Have you seen the White Sox ad campaign Us vs. Them? What do you think about it? Some are saying it is a low blow by the South Side marketing team.
My one question is who's "dem." If it's da twins and da chill of da AL Central, wicked. If it's da cubs, thun da sox ave missed da point. Donnie (St Louis, MO: Hey Joe, what do you think about our red hot Cardinals? Are they going to try to enter the Randy Johnson sweepstakes or be happy with what they have? Are there any other moves you think they'll make?
Eric, Chicago: Joe, from a former player....why do you think baseball is the absolute greatest sport there is?
Katie (Cheyenne, Wyoming): Hi Joe! What ballpark gimmick do you think is the worst: (a) the pool in Arizona, (b) the hill in the outfield in Houston, (c) Johnny Damon's hair, or (d) none of the above.
David (Chicago): Is the hill in Houston really that much worse than the flagpole on the warning track at old Tiger Stadium?
John:Omaha: What do you think is the best ballpark in the league?
Jason (New Orleans via Maryland): A best stadium question and no nod to Camden Yards? I know you don't get there that often, but it has to top Safeco on name alone.
Peter (boston): should they tear down fenway?
Maybe it's a fluke that Fenway and Wrigley survived when so many other old stadiums were replaced. But now they are the only two left. Couldn't that be part of those two franchise's appeal and mightn't help to draw fans? Look at how well the Canadiens did after they got rid of the forum. Innit one way to stop da red sox fans from whining all da time? Maybe it's a fluke dat Fenway and Wrigley survived whun so many udda batty [old] stadiums went da way of da Dido. But now dey is da only two left. Couldn't dat be part of those two franchise's appeal and mightn't it 'elp to attract fans? Check at 'ow well da Canadiens did afta dey got rid of da Forum. Da Mingin (Ugly)Scott (Sacramento, CA): Joe, I thought that Griffey had finally shaken those injuries bugs away and was having a great season. Why is he so unlucky these days? Will we ever see Junior of old? Should he move back to the AL and become a DH?
Will we ever see Junior of old? No, 'im ain't been the Junior of batty since about 1997. 'Im iz a well wicked playa, but an .862 OPS in a 'itter's park? 'E did 'aven't 'ad a maximum season wiv an OPS dat low since 1990, and thun it was whole diff'rent ballgame. Concerned Baseball Fan: Joe: Has the baseball world forgotten about the ugly steriod cloud hanging over its head. Especially with players like Giambi losing 20 pounds and all of his power. What happens if and when these allegations are proven, or is baseball going to sweep this under the rug like it tries to do with everything controversial?
I guess barry bonds no longa be da posta child fa steroid use since he is still as wicked as eva at age 40. Cole (Dallas): Everyone is talking about how the midseason MVP is Vlad or Pudge but shouldn't Michael Young, Hank Blalock, or Fransisco Cordero be considered too?
I think Michael Young should be considered. Blalock is also having a great year. But Pudge is first and Vlad is second. I don't usually vote at the halfway point but if I did vote, it would be Pudge.
As fa da MVP, why is pudge bein' mentioned whun da tigers is not contenders? I thought dat was a maja criterion like fa Joe. And if Rodriguez be mentioned, why not Guillun? And why not Manny Ramirez or Sheffield? Besides, maybe Young as a decent shot at MVP, but Blalock and for real Cordero ain't got all dat much to recommend dem. If a crew as three MVP candidates, maybe innit a wicked indication dat dey don't evun 'ave one. Brent (Simsbury, CT): Mr. Morgan, Going back to your comments above on the steroids issue -- didn't you and everyone else notice how smaller the waistlines were of the participants in the HR derby? It was clearly evident for anyone who watches baseball year in & year out.
Yes, I did notice guys seemed smaller overall, bulk-wise. I would like for all of you to read my column this week, at the end I talk about steroids for a bit and how I feel. I've noticed a lot of things but I try not to make up my mind on things until I have proof on things. It's a devastating situation. If you accuse a guy for something he didn't do, he may never get over it.
Let us check out dat article: I turned 40 on Sept. 19, 1983 when I was with Philadelphia Phillies. On that team, I was reunited with Pete Rose and Tony Perez. We had been teammates on Cincinnati's Big Red Machine team that won back-to-back World Series in 1975 and '76. Dis is da first public acknowledgement by Joe dat 'e played fa da Phils. And 'e 'as to like qualify it: it was OK coz he played wiv two teammates from da Massiv Red Machine. If Bonds really wants to, I believe he can break Hank Aaron's all-time record of 755 home runs. Bonds has 682 home runs now. If he hits 18 more homers this season, he'd have an even 700. The math is simple from there. If he plays three more seasons and averages just 20 home runs per season, Bonds would finish with 760. So da gezza gonna 'it 18 westside runs in less dun 'alf a season, but all 'e's gonna 'it next year is 20. 'E projects to just 14 more on da year by da way. Maybe if 'e 'its 39-40 dis season, 'e will 'it about 30 next season and 25 da year afta to tie da record. Innit more of a natural decline dat way. Maybe he as a betta shot to it more westside runs if 'e starts to decline soon since 'e will get fewa walks and more at-bats. And fanks, Joe, fa 'elpin us wiv da maf. I failed dat in scool and did 'ave no idea dat three times twenty be sixty. There's been talk about Bonds being the best defensive left fielder ever. That's tough to gauge for me, because I didn't see players from previous eras. But I'd say he's among the top three left fielders of all time. So 'e does not know about dem old gezzars, but 'e would say Bonds is in da top five. Yous know there is dat fin' called baseball analysis dat can be used to gauge dese fings propaly. Otherwise, comparin' playas across eras iz like a intellectually stiff end. Maybe as a baseball analyst, yous might dig to try it sometime, Joe. "When someone's reputation and livelihood are at stake, it seems that they're at least entitled to some of the same protections we give an accused criminal." I agree with that 100 percent. Those are great quotes and great thoughts for all of us to live by -- because, whether the topic is baseball or the Olympics, we're Americans first and steroid hunters second. 'Ow patriotic. Fanks fa acknowledgin' the like Bill of Riots. Einstein: If everyone was tested for steroids before and during the season, and those who tested positive were banned for life wouldn't steroids be a non issue (practically) with the next generation ?
To quote Carl Speckla, "Correct me if me is wrong, but if I kill all da golfers they'll lock me up and throw away da key." But we can continue to spread rumors of steroid use throughout da season, "We don't evun need a reason." By da way, I think da geeza askin da question is puttin yous on, Joe. 'Is name might be a tipoff. Nick (Quakertown, PA): Why does Vlad get all the triple crown hype, and there's none for manny when manny is leading him in all three categories?
By da way, "both catergories", dere's three of dem categories in da Triple Clown. Nathan (san antonio, tx): When was the last time you spoke to Pete Rose. Do you think that charade he pulled with the book has cost him his last chance to be in the Hall?
Ben (TN): Why won't the Reds spend any money to go out and get players, it seems as if the front office is no longer interested in winning?
Nate (KS): Hey Joe! The other day I was watching ESPN Classic (best invention ever!) and there was a Yankees/Tigers game on, I think. The year was 1976, and during the broadcast they showed the all-star balloting from that year. It was pretty much yourself and your Reds teammates vs the American League. Were people crying foul in 76 because of the Reds dominance and all-star presence like folks seem to do in present day with the Yankees pretty much representing the AL in the all-star game? Or does everyone outside of NY just hate the yankees?
Jeff (NYC): Joe, Randy Johnson is basically dictating that he be traded to the Yankees, in what would basically amount to a salary dump, since the Yanks have no prospects the D-Backs want. Is there any chance that Bud Selig, realizing that this is an absolute travesty, would veto the trade? Please, please, please say yes!!!
Tim (Springfield, MA): Joe, You've said that you don't care for home-field advantage to be determined by the results of an exhibition, and that it should go back to alternating between the leagues. Isn't that just as arbitrary? You said that the farther we stray from tradition, the more the game suffers, but wouldn't you agree that the game is much better than it was 70 years ago?
By da way, alternatin' 'omefield is not arbitrary. In da house's da definition of arbitrary, "Based on or determined by main man preference or convenience ratha than by necessity or da intrinsic nature of somethin'." I don't think tradition was part of the game 70 years ago.—Youse navy, Joe. Dem batty geezas bem bangin' on about da yufes despoilin' da sport since before da first maja league. Wot, youse thought u wuz da first? Nathan; Dallas: Joe-- Heard a rumor that you were on a comeback tour to save the Astros? Any truth, or is ESPN taking good care of you!
John (Durham, NC): Why wouldn't you just give home field advantage to the team with the best record instead of alternating leagues?
And wot iz youse bangin' on about Detroit? Wuz dey in da like playoffs last year? Sean (Pompano, Florida): Hey Joe! Could you handicap the NL East for us? Have you ever seen such a close race, 4 teams within 1 game?
Sorry I mentioned dem since dey beat youse wicked Massiv Red Machine in da playoffs. Dere is a lot of parity dis year, but a) innit wot a salary tommy (cap) will do and b) wuzn't it just a year or two ago whun we wuz bein told by maja league baseball dat mostest crews could not evun compete anymore? Maybe it be just cyclical like. Matt (Ranger, Texas): Joe, I am a huge Houston Astros fan and I was wondering how you think the Astros will in the 2nd half under Phil Garner.
Brian (Longview,TX): Joe, how about an insight on the AL West race.... where do you see it playing out?... A's need a legitimate closer and a bat, the Angels need a starting pitcher to replace the Colon fiasco, and the Rangers need a little more starting pitching as well?... who do you give the edge to?
Maybe youse should mention dat da A's picked up a closa (Dotel) and dat da Rangas are to a geeza playin ova deir heads. James, Arlington, VA: Joe, thanks for talking to us die hard baseball fans; in my opinion baseball fans are the greatest out there...it takes real fans to follow 162 games plus the playoffs. Question, will the Phillies make any deals before the 30th and if so, what do you think they can get? Right now they are an average team at best...Thanks
As fa as homey field advantage in Philly, da Phils score as many runs on da road. Dey just 'it fewa westside runs. I 'ave no clue wot youse iz sayin' about Millwood and Colon. Josh NY: Speaking of parity, it appears that all major sports are going through this parity situation, what do you feel it is attributed too? I mean look at the NFL so many teams at 9-7 and 8-8 then there was the Pats, in my opinion they won the Mediocre bowl
Keep it real and much respek.
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Maddux Redux
2004-07-28 13:21
As Greg Maddux flies under the radar in his quest for 300 wins, hopefully it will revive the discussions from five to ten years ago as to who is the greatest pitcher of the current era, Maddux or Clemens. I personally prefer Clemens but am open to the debate. The Rocket's foray into New York and ensuing media circuses (circi?) from his pursuit of 300 as well as the FOX-favorite beaning of/bat-tossing at Mike Piazza, have helped to cement Clemens as the favorite. It seems that Maddux has lagged behind Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez in the court of public opinion over the last few years. Maddux was once the thinking fan's favorite pitcher and the darling of all the TV analysts and baseball cognoscenti. Even though he has had slow starts over the last few years his only sub-par season, for him, was last year: 3.96 ERA, only 5% better than the park-adjusted league average, and a 16-11 record. With the Yankees Clemens registered one season with an ERA worse than average (1999-3% worse) and one about average (1% better in 2002). Maddux actually leads Clemens in career adjusted ERA: 143 to 140. I guess it's easy to overlook a pitcher who hasn't won twenty games in eleven seasons. One thing that intrigues me about Maddux's career are the consistently low walk totals and the resulting low WHIPs. I was surprised when I looked it up that Maddux is just 35th in career WHIP (1.13), just ahead of some dude named Cy Young. Here are the top 20 in career WHIP (to three decimal places, min. 1000 IP):
Or in other words, Pedro Martinez, Sandy Koufax, and a bunch of old guys. If you want a complete list, B-R.com has it here (based on walks plus hits per nine inning). I didn't feel that this list was in actuality representative of the quality of the pitchers involved, but rather was a result of the era in which a pitcher pitched. Therefore, I set about to study a version of WHIP that was adjusted per league and era. I calculated the pitcher's actual walks and hits totals and then the expected walks/hits total based on the league's average WHIP for that season multiplied by the pitcher's innings. If one sums that across a pitcher's career, a more complete picture of how much better than average of the course of his career the pitcher actually was (at least at allowing walks and hits). Maddux improves to ninth. Here are the top 25 (ranked by career walks and hits below expected, "BB+H B Exp"; Note: data through 2003, min. 1000 IP):
That's a much better group of pitchers. However, the ceding is affected by how many innings a pitcher threw, since the totals are cumulative. Of course, ye olde-tyme pitchers threw many more innings per year. So I broke down the data based walks and hits below expectation per inning. Here are the results:
Maddux is in a virtual tie for eighth all-time (with the legendary Tiny Bonham). He is, however, ahead of Clemens, but it is dang close. Of course, there are a number of modern players near the top, but they may drop as they age. Pedro Martinez is ridiculously ahead of the pack. It will be interesting to see how he ages and what it will do to his stats (and also if he decides to ever toss Don Zimmer again). By the way, for those of you who don't remember Tiny Bonham except as maybe a name Bart Simpson used to prank Moe's Tavern, Bonham was a Yankee pitcher who was highly successful during World War II. He was one of the first to use a forkball successfully, wasn't tiny at all (6'2" 215), had chronic back problems that hurt his career more than the troops returning to the baseball field, and died from complications from an appendectomy only two weeks after his last game while with the Pirates (Thanks to Baseball-Library.com for the details). He was also a two-time All-Star who finished with an ERA 20 points better than the park-adjusted league average. By the way, here are the worst pitchers of all time based on total walks plus hits above expected:
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Zeile-lot, II
2004-07-28 13:20
The following is from the comments section of the original post. I thought it was too good to get lost in the comments: Any pitchers with a career ERA of infinity (i.e. pitched once or so, gave up a run and no outs) ? —Robert It was done 13 times by the following men: Lou Bauer Davalillo is the last person to do it and he's the only one to pitch in two games. He faced four batters, two of which walked and two got hits. The most runs allowed without registering an out was 6 by Bill Childers (2 H, 6 BB, 3 WP) in 1895 and Doc Hamann (3 H, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 1 WP) in 1922. There are also 15 pitchers with unresolved ERAs, meaning that they allowed no runs and did not retire a batter. Among them is Stan Musial, who faced one batter in 1952. Musial started his minor-league career as a pitcher but was forced to switch to a position player after an injury. Here's the account of the game from Baseball-Library.com: September 29, 1952: Stan Musial makes his only ML pitching appearance. With his 6th batting title wrapped up, he takes the mound against the Cubs Frank Baumholtz, the runner-up in the batting race. Baumholtz, batting righthanded, reaches base on an error, and Harvey Haddix relieves Musial. The Cubs win 3-0 behind Paul Minner. By the way, Musial and Larry Yount (Robin's brother) are the only two men to appear in a game as a pitcher without registering an out or giving up a hit, walk, or hit batsman. Yount actually never faced a batter. From Baseball Library: September 15, 1971: At Houston, the Braves win, 4–2, as Aaron belts his 44th homer of the year. The RBI is his 1,954th, tying him with Ty Cobb for 3rd place on the all-time list. In the 9th inning, Larry Yount is announced as the new pitcher for Houston. While taking his warmup pitches, Yount injures his arm and must be replaced in what proves to be his only ML appearance. Larry's brother Robin Yount will begin a more successful ML career in 1974. Joe "Fire" Cleary holds the highest career ERA for a pitcher who registered an out: 189.00 from 1/3 inning of work with the 1945 Senators in which he allowed 7 earned runs on five hits, 3 BBs, and one wild pitch. The league park-adjusted average ERA was 2.70 that year. His adjusted ERA is a 1.
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Zeile-lot
2004-07-28 00:04
Todd Zeile pitched for the second time in his career yesterday, mopping up for the Mets in their 19-10 loss to the Expos. He gave up five earned runs on four hits and two walks in one inning to up his career ERA from 0.00 to 22.50. Given that Zeile is 38 and his two appearances were flukes to begin with, we may have seen the last of Todd Zeile the pitcher. However, Zeile's is not the worst performance ever for a cup-of-coffee pitcher. There eighteen worse (min. 2 appearances and 2 innings pitched), and some of them were actual pitchers. Here they are:
It's good to see that Craig Reynolds and Keith Osik could lend their hand to sucking at multiple positions, one of which was pitcher. By the way, the worst on the list David Moraga was a pitcher by trade for the Expos and Rockies. His Expos ERA was 37.80, and his Rockie ERA was 45.00. The odd thing about Zeile is that his Rockie ERA was 0.00 and he recorded his only strikeout as a Rockie.
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Jeriome Choked In the Jake Today
2004-07-27 23:51
The Indians have designated Jeriome Robertson for reassignment today after his ERA rose to 12.21 for the season. As if that weren't enough opponents are batting .349 against him with five homers, and he has a 2.21 WHIP, a 3.86 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 0.67 strikeouts-to-walk ratio in his scant 14 innings of work. He has given up thirteen runs in his last three appearances comprising 4.1 total innings. Last year, Robertson, then on the Astros, led all rookies with 15 wins despite a 5.10 ERA, which was 13% worse than the park-adjusted league average. After signing both Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, Robertson became expendable. The 'Stros then shipped him to the Indians for minor-leaguers Luke Scott and Willy Taveras. Robertson was supposed to become a staple of the Indians rotation. He started the season in the minors and didn't make a start in his eight appearances. He also stunk up the minors with a 4-5 record and a 7.27 ERA in 14 appearances at Buffalo. He also gave up 91 hits, 10 home runs, and 22 walks in 64-1/3 innings. Ouch! Unless someone expresses interest in Robertson, he may get released and at best he will no longer be on the Indians' 40-man roster even if they keep him in the organization. Given his recent problems and the fact that the only real item in his resume that could recommend him to another team is winning 15 last year, which may be enough. However, it seems likely that this is the end of the line for Robertson. That made me wonder how often a player had won 15 games and then never won more than one game (his total in 2004) over the rest of his career. It was actually done quite often in the nineteenth century when teams often had only one or two starters and they could quickly fall into disfavor and out of the league. Some of those were even quite well known: A.G. Spalding, George Van Haltren, Adonis Terry, and Hall-of-Famer Amos Rusie. There were 23 such nineteenth-century pitchers. However, it's just been done three times since 1934. Here are all of the pitchers from 1900 until today that fit the Robertson model:
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Who Wins?
2004-07-27 12:32
Oftentimes, to win us to our harm, —"Dave" Banquo in William "Author" Shakespeare's Macbeth To win by strategy is no less the role of a general than to win by arms. —Julius "Matos" Caesar The high sentiments always win in the end, the leaders who offer blood, toil, tears and sweat always get more out of their followers than those who offer safety and a good time. When it comes to the pinch, human beings are heroic. —George "Bamberger" Orwell, who obviously never read the ending to his book 1984. Wesley: Excuse me? Is this something we should all be talking about? Angel: No... it was mostly... theoretical. Spike: Look, if cavemen and astronauts got into a fight, who would win? Wesley: You've been arguing for forty minutes about this. (thinks) Do the astronauts have weapons? Spike, Angel: No. (in unison) —(Anaheim) Angel Winning, that's the point of the game. Even a Phils fan like myself knows that. So which are the teams that win? Well, obviously teams with more talent win more often. However, how do you measure that? Is it more due to their offensive prowess or pitching skills and how to quantify that? A team's winning percentage in one-run ballgames is often cited by analysts (right after telling you a certain batter is 2-for-6 with a homer off a certain pitcher, as if that has any meaning). Are there certain traits, like winning close ballgames, that winning teams display? Can one predict a team's success from how they perform under certain conditions like close ballgames? OK, enough with the question. After being directed to Baseball Reference's situations splits page by my friend Gregor Gross, and after kvelling an appropriate amount of time, I attempted to address these issues. For offensive stats, I used the yearly team batting ratios: average, on-base, slugging, and OPS. For pitching, the following stats were recorded each year for each team: ERA, WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched), Strikeout-to-walk ratio (K:BB), Strikeouts-per-nine-innings (K/9IP). Then all stats were adjusted for by dividing by the league average. Finally, they were each compared against the team winning percentage and then the correlation coefficient, or how well each set of data corresponds to winning percentage, was determined for each decade and for all-time. I also adjusted the batting and pitching stats by the team's home ballpark factor and re-ran the correlation. Then, I took the situational winning percentage for a set of criteria and tried to see how well each correlated to overall winning percentage. Those situations, which I kind of picked out of a hat, were the team's yearly record in home games, road games, one-run games, games won by no more than three runs ("Save" games), low-scoring games (five or less total runs), high-scoring games (10 or more total runs), and games with a large margin of victory (five or more runs). I also took the runs scored for and against in the above situations and calculated the expected winning percentage to determine if that correlated to overall winning percentage better (using the 1.83-exponent Pythagorean formula). So without further ado, here are the results such as they are: Battting
Of course, as baseball matured batting average became less important to winning, but don’t tell Joe Morgan. Overall OPS correlates best to winning percentage, but in the 2000s OBP is beating OPS, which was a bit of a surprise. Park-adjusted Batting
When you adjust for ballpark OPS does beat OBP. However, you'll notice that none of these correlations is very strong. Pitching[Note: negative correlation just means that as one goes down the other rises, but still expresses a correlation. E.g., as ERAs go down winning percentages tend to go up. Makes sense.]
ERA correlates best here overall, though WHIP has surpassed ERA in the 2000s. The strikeout ratios are gaining strength but still don't correlate very well. Park-Adjusted Pitching
ERA does surpass WHIP after the park adjustment, like OPS and OBP in batting. Situational
Home and road records correlate equally well to winning percentage though for the last 25 years, road records have ruled. Also the expected home record beats out the road one. However, both of these are pretty strong correlations, which makes sense since they comprise about a half a season each.
One-run record don't correlate well and are doing worse as time goes by. "Save" records, close games, do correlate fairly well, which is why, I guess, they came up with the concept of a save in the first place.
This one's odd: Low-scoring record don't correlate very well at all, but high-scoring correlates extremely well, better in fact than based on the expected winning percentage. Maybe the Rockies should take note.
Again, it looks like higher scoring affairs are better predictors of a team's success or at least correlate better to their winning percentage. Perhaps this is due to a low-scoring game being more based on the pitchers' performance than the teams as a whole.
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Joe Morgan Chat Da(y) Ali G Show
2004-07-26 00:38
Truth is one, but error proliferates. Man tracks it down and cuts it up into little pieces hoping to turn it into grains of truth. But the ultimate atom will always essentially be an error, a miscalculation. —René "Johnny" Daumal Truth is the silliest thing under the sun. Try to get a living by the Truth—and go to the Soup Societies. Heavens! Let any clergyman try to preach the Truth from its very stronghold, the pulpit, and they would ride him out of his church on his own pulpit bannister. —Herman "Bob" Melville You can't handle the truth. —Jack "Don't Call Me Bill" Nicholson in A Few Good Men
Trufe! Yo, Check it out. Dis word be, aiii, somethin 'ardly 'eard today. Innit? Me crew told me dat me main man Joe Morgan be da for real brainiest and most bestest mos' trufeful baseball bloke on da telly. But the geezers on the 'pooter be wonderin' wot he be bangin' on about all da time. Me man were part of da Big Red Machine, aiii, which were like da wicked robots wot been playin' wiv da Fresh Prince in da movies. Yo, obviously, dem robots be for real too smart fa us 'umans Respek. West Side. Da Wicked (Good)
Jake Fields (Los Angeles, CA): Do you think it is a waste of the Padres time and money to take a player like Finley who has at the most 2 years left in him?
Nate (DC): Joe: I'm not familiar with baseball contracts from when you played, but what do think of the no trade clause that so many "average" players are including in contracts? Is this good/bad for baseball as a whole?
Matt (NY,NY): Joe, Mike Piazza said earlier in the week that he and Clemens had spoken in the trainer's room before the All-Star game about "personal stuff." Does anyone know what was said in that conversation? Any other All-Star game moments for us?
Rich (Columbus, OH): Hey Joe, can you give me a batter's standpoint on the difference between seeing a splitfinger fastball and a sinker? To me, they always seemed very similar pitches, and I wanted to know what they looked like from the eyes of a batter.
Da Wicked (Bad)Carol (Dayton, OH): Joe: With that unique, strong delivery, did you find it difficult to hit Eckersley whenever you faced him?
Alec (Washington): What do you think about naming the new team the Grays?
Len, Liverpool PA: Joe...I think the balls were juiced for the HR derby at the all star game. The baseballs were going much to far. Do you agree?
Bob (Tinley Park, IL): Joe, thanks for taking my question. It was mentioned during a recent ESPN telecast that Ron Santo may someday join the Hall of Fame, and I thought you were conspicously quiet after the statement. I suspect you don't necesarily agree. Should Santo be a HOF'er in your opinion or was he just a very good player? Thanks.
Maury Will, tho'. I don't know what dese old geezers be bangin' on about 'im. After 'e stole 100 bases in 1962, da stolen base per game average went down da next year. 'Is decade wuz da Sixties wiv the wicked Jimi guitar and da Bob Gibson 1.12 ERA. Booyakasha, here be da decade, what I'm sayin', averages and percent change since da Fifties:
Note dat Wills did help bring back da stolen base by leading da NL in steals from 1960-65. Howebber, it increased more in da Seventies when he innit led da league in steals for five years already. B-sides, 'is career OPS wuz 12% worse den da park-adjusted league average, aiii. 'Is most similar batter, checkit, be Larry Bowa, mingin! And another on da list be Kid Gleason, a converted tosser, not dat he go down da boozer too oftun, but ratha he wuz da geeza who threw da ball. The Deege (Champaign): Joe, what is your takeon Carlos Delgado and his protests of "God Bless America"?
But wot does dis geezer, Delgado, 'ave to protest givun dat da island he was born on was bombed back to creation, da radioactive material is still dere. But dem's wuz Americans, so I guess dat is ok. Sal (Westport): Mr. Morgan, do you think the Ortiz suspension of five games was fair or do you think it should have been a harsher punishment being that he threw two bats aiming right at the umpires?
Garth (NY): Barry Bonds swings one of the lightest bats in the league, as I understand. Why don't more players choose lighter bats for quicker bat speed, especially when some players are thought to have lost bat speed (like what I've heard about John Olerud)?
Now, if da average bat is 32 ounces, 'ow can it be dat there is well few ova 32? It doesn't like make sense, Joe. And why u iz going around measuring batty iz beyond me compression. Peter O'Neill (Albany): Joe, I'm only an hour away, so if you want to meet for lunch...but seriously, do you think closers after eck will have any luck geting into the Hall? Who do YOU think is worthy?
More closers getting in…Joe forgot dat the all-time mostest save-wickedest, checkit, pitcher, Lee Smif is on like the writers' ballot and he ain't got in yet. There be just three closers in da 'All, aiii, and I doesn’t check many today wiv a wicked chance of goin in except fa Mariano Rivera. Chuck A. Hanover, Pa.: Minor rule change: With two out and TWO OUT only. Shouldn't a runner on first base be allowed to score on a ground rule double. He is running at the crack of the bat because he can't be doubled up. I remember espn's opening game about 7 years ago [the one with new Angel Mo Vaughn falling in the dugout and out for the year] and Joe Morgan on a drive over Buhner's head mentioning what I have heard a 100 times. "Well the Mariners got a break on that one as the Angel player would have scored easily". Thanks, Mr. Morgan!
No, Joe, da point is if it is a correct dig assumption dat he would 'ave scored. Like, wot if da ball would 'ave bounced right off da wall to a fielda wiv a strong arm who would ave 'eld da runna at third? Or maybe da runna would 'ave 'eld thinkin' dat da ball might get caught and only end up at second. Wot thun? Utek (LA): Hi Joe. Adrian Beltre is having a monster season, despite playing on a bad ankle. I've heard an opposing coach say that he believes that the ankle injury has helped Beltre, in that it keeps him from lunging at pitches. What's your take? Have you ever heard of an injury that actually improved a player's performance?
As far as Beltre not bein on da All-Atar crew, Rolun did 'ave to start and it's a toss up betweun Beltre and Lowell fa da backup (19 win shares each) jon (atlanta): I was thrilled to see the 500 club at this year's Home Run Derby! I was especially glad to see Hank front and center, where he belongs? Why do so many sportswriters (not you of course) overlook what a transcendant player Hank Aaron was? Does the 755 block out everything else?
Eric (New York): With the addition of prospect David Wright, is this enough for the Mets to get to the top of the NL East?
I think whoever improves the most between now and August 1 will win the division… Me crew told me dat dey extended da season, right, and will play until octoba dis year. Lee, Dallas TX: is there anything in particular you can point out as to why this season has backfired on the astros plans to contend this season? thanks.
Bagwell is on da wrong side of thirty and 'is OPS 'as dropped every year since 1999. Probably a little more dis year, but consida he did 'ave just 17 westside runs and a .832 OPS in da first 'alf last year, and dey were bemoanin' 'is like demise evun as he ended up wiv 39 'omers and a .897 OPS. Of course, Adam Everett's .311 OBP mostly in da numba two batty ain't 'elped da Astros offense dis season. And da batty, dat iz bottum, of da orda as bin a aminal (Morgan Ensberg .697 OPS and Brad Ausmus .606). It iz not dysfunctional to be not all dat wicked. Tim (San Jose): What has happened to Barry Zito? I don't buy the theories about him missing Rick Peterson, he should be able to stand on his own two feet. Can he bounce back?
Dusty Baker (Chicago): I can't help but think that I've lost control of this team. Should I start demanding they take responsibility for their actions on the field and stop blaming the other side? ( See the actions and my response to Zambrano and Hawkins during the two-game series with the Cards)
Scott (Sacramento, CA): Joe, assuming that the Yanke |
Ali G: Booyakasha! Checkit, I iz back with my main geeza, Joe Morgan, to take more questions from yous geezas.
I've noticed him striking out too. But I have to give him the benefit of the doubt because he was on the DL so long. I talked to him a few weeks ago and he said then he thought it would take awhile. But he still makes that team better. Without him they would struggle even more. 
Booyakasha!