Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : Purposeful or Plunk-Happy?

Purposeful or Plunk-Happy?

2005-06-11 21:17

by Mike Carminati

Of a thousand shavers, two do not shave so much alike as not to be distinguished.

—Samuel Johnson

The other day I looked at Craig Biggio's run at the "modern" hit by a pitch record and which batters exceed HBP expectations the most. Next, I'd like to look at the other side of the equation: which pitchers like to shave batters the closest.

Using each pitcher's career HBP totals and the his career batters faced pitching (or innings pitched for the years in which BFP were not kept), I calculated the difference between each pitcher's actual and expected HBP totals. Here are the ones that exceeded expectations the most:

Name	First	Last	Act HBP	IP	Exp HBP	Diff	Act-to-Exp
Charlie Hough	1970	1994	174	3,801.33	86.97	87.03	200%
Don Drysdale	1956	1969	154	3,432.00	78.32	75.68	197%
Jim Bunning	1955	1971	160	3,760.33	88.17	71.83	181%
Ed Doheny	1895	1903	132	1,392.67	62.53	69.47	211%
Dave Stieb	1979	1998	129	2,895.33	64.22	64.78	201%
Jack Warhop	1908	1915	114	1,412.67	51.22	62.78	223%
Howard Ehmke	1915	1930	137	2,820.67	75.42	61.58	182%
Tommy Byrne	1943	1957	85	1,362.00	29.09	55.91	292%
Jakie May	1917	1932	88	1,562.33	33.16	54.84	265%
Jack Billingham	1968	1980	98	2,230.67	47.05	50.95	208%
Chan Ho Park	1994	2004	106	1,454.67	55.90	50.10	190%
Jim Lonborg	1965	1979	105	2,464.33	55.68	49.32	189%
Randy Johnson	1988	2004	156	3,368.00	107.32	48.68	145%
Don Cardwell	1957	1970	98	2,122.67	50.32	47.68	195%
Tim Wakefield	1992	2004	125	2,066.67	77.36	47.64	162%
Bert Blyleven	1970	1992	155	4,970.00	108.58	46.42	143%
Frank Lary	1954	1965	97	2,162.33	50.58	46.42	192%
Jamey Wright	1996	2004	89	1,134.33	44.42	44.58	200%
Nolan Ryan	1966	1993	158	5,386.00	113.69	44.31	139%
Darryl Kile	1991	2002	117	2,165.33	73.56	43.44	159%
Mike Smithson	1982	1989	73	1,356.33	30.86	42.14	237%
Jeff Pfeffer	1911	1924	105	2,407.33	62.90	42.10	167%
Cy Morgan	1903	1913	95	1,445.33	54.25	40.75	175%
Orel Hershiser	1983	2000	117	3,130.33	76.68	40.32	153%
Chief Hogsett	1929	1944	60	1,222.00	20.18	39.82	297%
Ed Willett	1906	1915	106	1,773.33	66.78	39.22	159%
Pedro Astacio	1992	2004	108	1,979.67	69.09	38.91	156%
Harry McIntire	1905	1913	96	1,650.00	57.51	38.49	167%
George Uhle	1919	1936	113	3,119.67	74.68	38.32	151%
Kerry Wood	1998	2004	78	1,043.00	40.16	37.84	194%
Mike Boddicker	1980	1993	87	2,123.67	50.75	36.25	171%
Mark Leiter	1990	2001	75	1,184.33	39.25	35.75	191%
Will White	1877	1886	68	3,542.67	32.33	35.67	210%
Roy Parmelee	1929	1939	55	1,120.33	20.36	34.64	270%
Pedro Martinez	1992	2004	115	2,296.00	80.52	34.48	143%
Otto Hess	1902	1915	83	1,418.00	48.77	34.23	170%
Jeff Weaver	1999	2004	82	1,172.00	48.11	33.89	170%

By the way, though Mike Piazza may beg to differ, Roger Clemens ranks only 189th out of 1073 qualifiers. Here's his line:

Name	First	Last	Act HBP	IP	Exp HBP	Diff	Act-to-Exp
Roger Clemens	1984	2004	147	4493	137.06	9.93	107.25%

Oddly, Sal Maglie is three men behind him, but he did have a much shorter career:

Name	First	Last	Act HBP	IP	Exp HBP	Diff	Act-to-Exp
Sal Maglie	1945	1958	44	1723	34.18	9.824	128.75%

Now, here are the pitchers with the least HBP as compared with expected:

Name	First	Last	Act HBP	IP	Exp HBP	Diff	Act-to-Exp
Cy Young	1890	1911	163	7,354.67	1,101.26	-938.26	15%
Kid Nichols	1890	1906	133	5,056.33	893.37	-760.37	15%
Joe McGinnity	1899	1908	182	3,441.33	515.13	-333.13	35%
Jack Chesbro	1899	1909	113	2,896.67	362.56	-249.56	31%
Bill Donovan	1898	1918	91	2,964.67	296.57	-205.57	31%
Rube Waddell	1897	1910	117	2,961.33	315.41	-198.41	37%
Christy Mathewson	1900	1916	59	4,780.67	212.69	-153.69	28%
Al Orth	1895	1909	79	3,354.67	187.80	-108.80	42%
Jack Powell	1897	1912	121	4,389.00	227.21	-106.21	53%
George Mullin	1902	1915	131	3,686.67	223.23	-92.23	59%
Addie Joss	1902	1910	60	2,327.00	151.86	-91.86	40%
Bill Dineen	1898	1909	77	3,074.67	168.85	-91.85	46%
Ed Walsh	1904	1917	54	2,964.33	144.56	-90.56	37%
Harry Howell	1898	1910	97	2,567.67	179.21	-82.21	54%
Deacon Phillippe	1899	1911	60	2,607.00	141.60	-81.60	42%
Noodles Hahn	1899	1906	52	2,029.33	130.81	-78.81	40%
Jack Taylor	1898	1907	92	2,617.00	156.47	-64.47	59%
Eddie Plank	1901	1917	196	4,495.67	259.48	-63.48	76%
Tom Glavine	1987	2004	52	3,740.33	115.36	-63.36	45%
Warren Spahn	1942	1965	42	5,243.67	104.09	-62.09	40%
Mike Mussina	1991	2004	36	2,833.33	97.14	-61.14	37%
Red Donahue	1893	1906	101	2,975.33	159.41	-58.41	63%
Pete Alexander	1911	1930	70	5,190.00	127.80	-57.80	55%
Mike Cuellar	1959	1977	12	2,808.00	65.34	-53.34	18%
Brickyard Kennedy	1892	1903	31	3,021.00	82.69	-51.69	37%
Stan Coveleski	1912	1928	30	3,082.00	81.21	-51.21	37%
Eddie Cicotte	1905	1920	49	3,223.33	99.96	-50.96	49%
Herb Pennock	1912	1934	36	3,571.67	86.86	-50.86	41%
Rube Marquard	1908	1925	39	3,306.67	89.83	-50.83	43%
Vic Willis	1898	1910	157	3,996.00	206.99	-49.99	76%
Steve Carlton	1965	1988	53	5,217.33	101.89	-48.89	52%
Curt Schilling	1988	2004	44	2,812.67	92.46	-48.46	48%
Bill Bernhard	1899	1907	28	1,792.00	75.58	-47.58	37%
Jim Palmer	1965	1984	38	3,948.00	85.33	-47.33	45%
George Winter	1901	1908	44	1,656.00	90.36	-46.36	49%
Vida Blue	1969	1986	23	3,343.33	67.93	-44.93	34%
Ted Lyons	1923	1946	31	4,161.00	74.31	-43.31	42%
Whitey Ford	1950	1967	28	3,170.33	70.49	-42.49	40%
Kirk Rueter	1993	2004	24	1,810.67	66.38	-42.38	36%
Billy Pierce	1945	1964	30	3,306.67	72.16	-42.16	42%
Mordecai Brown	1903	1916	63	3,172.33	104.57	-41.57	60%
Greg Swindell	1986	2002	21	2,233.33	62.54	-41.54	34%
Juan Marichal	1960	1975	40	3,507.33	80.66	-40.66	50%
Dolf Luque	1914	1935	26	3,220.33	66.55	-40.55	39%
Robin Roberts	1948	1966	54	4,688.67	94.09	-40.09	57%
Andy Pettitte	1995	2004	31	1,875.67	70.56	-39.56	44%

If we look at team totals, we can see how much entire staffs exceed league expectations for HBP. That is, which teams plunked others the most? The 2004 Red Sox are in the top ten for exceeding the expected team HBP. They also have a number of recent teams near the top. Then again, the D Rays have three teams in the top ten, so who's to say if it's due more to incompetence than malice:

Yr	Team	Act HBP	Act BFP	IP	Exp HBP	Diff
1922	Detroit Tigers	84	6148	1,391.00	42.84	41.16
1884	Cincinnati Red Stockings	78	4175	983.67	40.18	37.82
1899	Cleveland Spiders	109	0	1,264.00	72.51	36.49
1996	California Angels	84	6461	1,439.00	51.91	32.09
2002	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	94	6424	1,440.33	63.59	30.41
2003	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	95	6340	1,436.67	64.69	30.31
1885	Cincinnati Red Stockings	72	4273	999.33	42.30	29.70
2004	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	93	6261	1,417.00	64.11	28.89
2004	Boston Red Sox	92	6222	1,451.33	63.71	28.29
1903	Philadelphia Athletics	71	4987	1,207.00	43.25	27.75
1977	Seattle Mariners	61	6282	1,433.00	33.43	27.57
1971	Houston Astros	60	6121	1,471.33	32.78	27.22
1899	New York Giants	100	0	1,278.33	73.33	26.67
1998	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	81	6269	1,443.00	54.42	26.58
1996	Detroit Tigers	80	6713	1,432.67	53.94	26.06
1923	Boston Red Sox	68	5994	1,372.00	42.01	25.99
2001	Boston Red Sox	93	6272	1,448.00	67.14	25.86
1911	Philadelphia Athletics	81	5672	1,375.67	55.97	25.03
1966	Philadelphia Phillies	61	6132	1,459.67	36.33	24.67
1975	Milwaukee Brewers	58	6316	1,431.67	33.73	24.27
2002	Boston Red Sox	84	6049	1,446.00	59.88	24.12
1920	St. Louis Cardinals	58	6100	1,426.67	33.96	24.04
1914	Detroit Tigers	65	5734	1,412.00	41.85	23.15
2003	Colorado Rockies	84	6364	1,420.00	60.89	23.11
1953	Philadelphia Athletics	57	6186	1,409.00	34.06	22.94

Here are the lowest though they are all from the high-HBP early years:

Yr	Team	Act HBP	Act BFP	IP	Exp HBP	Diff
1898	Cleveland Spiders	57	1554	1,334.00	309.03	-252.03
1898	Boston Beaneaters	66	1572	1,340.00	311.75	-245.75
1897	Boston Beaneaters	45	1516	1,194.33	273.51	-228.51
1897	Cleveland Spiders	45	1423	1,118.67	257.24	-212.24
1899	St. Louis Perfectos	54	1541	1,340.67	257.70	-203.70
1897	Brooklyn Bridegrooms	52	1283	1,194.67	243.26	-191.26
1899	Baltimore Orioles	71	1573	1,304.33	259.99	-188.99
1898	Louisville Colonels	94	1333	1,334.00	276.78	-182.78
1899	Boston Beaneaters	69	1404	1,348.00	241.66	-172.66
1900	Pittsburgh Pirates	67	1812	1,229.00	205.38	-138.38
1900	St. Louis Cardinals	43	1325	1,217.33	166.81	-123.81
1900	Brooklyn Superbas	72	1645	1,225.67	193.00	-121.00
1899	Pittsburgh Pirates	68	781	1,364.00	170.55	-102.55
1906	New York Highlanders	45	3630	1,357.67	136.92	-91.92
1899	Louisville Colonels	66	659	1,351.67	155.31	-89.31
1901	Baltimore Orioles	48	3024	1,158.00	136.99	-88.99
1900	Boston Beaneaters	52	962	1,240.33	140.49	-88.49
1897	Louisville Colonels	88	818	1,138.00	176.21	-88.21
1901	Boston Americans	42	2739	1,217.00	129.73	-87.73
1901	Boston Beaneaters	38	5115	1,263.00	122.99	-84.99
1898	Washington Senators	80	509	1,307.00	150.91	-70.91
1901	Philadelphia Athletics	59	2604	1,200.67	127.10	-68.10
1905	Detroit Tigers	51	2896	1,348.00	118.25	-67.25
1898	Brooklyn Bridegrooms	57	293	1,298.67	117.27	-60.27
1905	New York Highlanders	44	2233	1,353.67	103.10	-59.10

Comments

2005-06-12 00:56:05

1. Ken Arneson

I see that the Devil Rays and Red Sox of recent vintage are both on the list multiple times. Is this a chicken-and-egg thing?

Do the Rays and Bosox get into beanball wars against each other because they're both the types of teams that would be on this list, or did they get on this list because they got into a beanball war with each other?

2005-06-12 11:38:31

2. graciebarn

Where is Walter Johnson on the "least HBP" list? Isn't he supposed to have a reputation for not going inside, thus allowing Ty Cobb to take advantage of him?

2005-06-12 12:55:28

3. Mike Carminati

Graciebarn,

Johnson, Walter not Samuel, actually holds the career record for hit batsmen at 203. He comes in at #60, exceeding expectations by 24.76 hit batsmen.

Ken,
That needs some further investigation: spec. how many HBP occurred in Red Sox-D Ray games. Going on anecdotal evidence (Jeter and Soriano comes to mind), the bulk of the HBP did not come in their mutual contests.

2005-06-12 16:45:45

4. BFenwick

Most of the knucklers that I can name seem to hit their fare share, while noted bean-hater Mike Mussina is on batter-friendly list. Some very interesting stuff in there...