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Purposeful or Plunk-Happy?
2005-06-11 21:17
by Mike Carminati
Of a thousand shavers, two do not shave so much alike as not to be distinguished.

—Samuel Johnson

The other day I looked at Craig Biggio's run at the "modern" hit by a pitch record and which batters exceed HBP expectations the most. Next, I'd like to look at the other side of the equation: which pitchers like to shave batters the closest.

Using each pitcher's career HBP totals and the his career batters faced pitching (or innings pitched for the years in which BFP were not kept), I calculated the difference between each pitcher's actual and expected HBP totals. Here are the ones that exceeded expectations the most:

NameFirstLastAct HBP IP Exp HBP DiffAct-to-Exp
Charlie Hough19701994174 3,801.33 86.97 87.03200%
Don Drysdale19561969154 3,432.00 78.32 75.68197%
Jim Bunning19551971160 3,760.33 88.17 71.83181%
Ed Doheny18951903132 1,392.67 62.53 69.47211%
Dave Stieb19791998129 2,895.33 64.22 64.78201%
Jack Warhop19081915114 1,412.67 51.22 62.78223%
Howard Ehmke19151930137 2,820.67 75.42 61.58182%
Tommy Byrne1943195785 1,362.00 29.09 55.91292%
Jakie May1917193288 1,562.33 33.16 54.84265%
Jack Billingham1968198098 2,230.67 47.05 50.95208%
Chan Ho Park19942004106 1,454.67 55.90 50.10190%
Jim Lonborg19651979105 2,464.33 55.68 49.32189%
Randy Johnson19882004156 3,368.00 107.32 48.68145%
Don Cardwell1957197098 2,122.67 50.32 47.68195%
Tim Wakefield19922004125 2,066.67 77.36 47.64162%
Bert Blyleven19701992155 4,970.00 108.58 46.42143%
Frank Lary1954196597 2,162.33 50.58 46.42192%
Jamey Wright1996200489 1,134.33 44.42 44.58200%
Nolan Ryan19661993158 5,386.00 113.69 44.31139%
Darryl Kile19912002117 2,165.33 73.56 43.44159%
Mike Smithson1982198973 1,356.33 30.86 42.14237%
Jeff Pfeffer19111924105 2,407.33 62.90 42.10167%
Cy Morgan1903191395 1,445.33 54.25 40.75175%
Orel Hershiser19832000117 3,130.33 76.68 40.32153%
Chief Hogsett1929194460 1,222.00 20.18 39.82297%
Ed Willett19061915106 1,773.33 66.78 39.22159%
Pedro Astacio19922004108 1,979.67 69.09 38.91156%
Harry McIntire1905191396 1,650.00 57.51 38.49167%
George Uhle19191936113 3,119.67 74.68 38.32151%
Kerry Wood1998200478 1,043.00 40.16 37.84194%
Mike Boddicker1980199387 2,123.67 50.75 36.25171%
Mark Leiter1990200175 1,184.33 39.25 35.75191%
Will White1877188668 3,542.67 32.33 35.67210%
Roy Parmelee1929193955 1,120.33 20.36 34.64270%
Pedro Martinez19922004115 2,296.00 80.52 34.48143%
Otto Hess1902191583 1,418.00 48.77 34.23170%
Jeff Weaver1999200482 1,172.00 48.11 33.89170%

By the way, though Mike Piazza may beg to differ, Roger Clemens ranks only 189th out of 1073 qualifiers. Here's his line:

NameFirstLastAct HBPIPExp HBPDiffAct-to-Exp
Roger Clemens198420041474493137.069.93107.25%

Oddly, Sal Maglie is three men behind him, but he did have a much shorter career:

NameFirstLastAct HBPIPExp HBPDiffAct-to-Exp
Sal Maglie1945195844172334.189.824128.75%

Now, here are the pitchers with the least HBP as compared with expected:

NameFirstLastAct HBP IP Exp HBP DiffAct-to-Exp
Cy Young18901911163 7,354.67 1,101.26 -938.2615%
Kid Nichols18901906133 5,056.33 893.37 -760.3715%
Joe McGinnity18991908182 3,441.33 515.13 -333.1335%
Jack Chesbro18991909113 2,896.67 362.56 -249.5631%
Bill Donovan1898191891 2,964.67 296.57 -205.5731%
Rube Waddell18971910117 2,961.33 315.41 -198.4137%
Christy Mathewson1900191659 4,780.67 212.69 -153.6928%
Al Orth1895190979 3,354.67 187.80 -108.8042%
Jack Powell18971912121 4,389.00 227.21 -106.2153%
George Mullin19021915131 3,686.67 223.23 -92.2359%
Addie Joss1902191060 2,327.00 151.86 -91.8640%
Bill Dineen1898190977 3,074.67 168.85 -91.8546%
Ed Walsh1904191754 2,964.33 144.56 -90.5637%
Harry Howell1898191097 2,567.67 179.21 -82.2154%
Deacon Phillippe1899191160 2,607.00 141.60 -81.6042%
Noodles Hahn1899190652 2,029.33 130.81 -78.8140%
Jack Taylor1898190792 2,617.00 156.47 -64.4759%
Eddie Plank19011917196 4,495.67 259.48 -63.4876%
Tom Glavine1987200452 3,740.33 115.36 -63.3645%
Warren Spahn1942196542 5,243.67 104.09 -62.0940%
Mike Mussina1991200436 2,833.33 97.14 -61.1437%
Red Donahue18931906101 2,975.33 159.41 -58.4163%
Pete Alexander1911193070 5,190.00 127.80 -57.8055%
Mike Cuellar1959197712 2,808.00 65.34 -53.3418%
Brickyard Kennedy1892190331 3,021.00 82.69 -51.6937%
Stan Coveleski1912192830 3,082.00 81.21 -51.2137%
Eddie Cicotte1905192049 3,223.33 99.96 -50.9649%
Herb Pennock1912193436 3,571.67 86.86 -50.8641%
Rube Marquard1908192539 3,306.67 89.83 -50.8343%
Vic Willis18981910157 3,996.00 206.99 -49.9976%
Steve Carlton1965198853 5,217.33 101.89 -48.8952%
Curt Schilling1988200444 2,812.67 92.46 -48.4648%
Bill Bernhard1899190728 1,792.00 75.58 -47.5837%
Jim Palmer1965198438 3,948.00 85.33 -47.3345%
George Winter1901190844 1,656.00 90.36 -46.3649%
Vida Blue1969198623 3,343.33 67.93 -44.9334%
Ted Lyons1923194631 4,161.00 74.31 -43.3142%
Whitey Ford1950196728 3,170.33 70.49 -42.4940%
Kirk Rueter1993200424 1,810.67 66.38 -42.3836%
Billy Pierce1945196430 3,306.67 72.16 -42.1642%
Mordecai Brown1903191663 3,172.33 104.57 -41.5760%
Greg Swindell1986200221 2,233.33 62.54 -41.5434%
Juan Marichal1960197540 3,507.33 80.66 -40.6650%
Dolf Luque1914193526 3,220.33 66.55 -40.5539%
Robin Roberts1948196654 4,688.67 94.09 -40.0957%
Andy Pettitte1995200431 1,875.67 70.56 -39.5644%

If we look at team totals, we can see how much entire staffs exceed league expectations for HBP. That is, which teams plunked others the most? The 2004 Red Sox are in the top ten for exceeding the expected team HBP. They also have a number of recent teams near the top. Then again, the D Rays have three teams in the top ten, so who's to say if it's due more to incompetence than malice:

YrTeamAct HBPAct BFP IP Exp HBP Diff
1922Detroit Tigers846148 1,391.00 42.84 41.16
1884Cincinnati Red Stockings784175 983.67 40.18 37.82
1899Cleveland Spiders1090 1,264.00 72.51 36.49
1996California Angels846461 1,439.00 51.91 32.09
2002Tampa Bay Devil Rays946424 1,440.33 63.59 30.41
2003Tampa Bay Devil Rays956340 1,436.67 64.69 30.31
1885Cincinnati Red Stockings724273 999.33 42.30 29.70
2004Tampa Bay Devil Rays936261 1,417.00 64.11 28.89
2004Boston Red Sox926222 1,451.33 63.71 28.29
1903Philadelphia Athletics714987 1,207.00 43.25 27.75
1977Seattle Mariners616282 1,433.00 33.43 27.57
1971Houston Astros606121 1,471.33 32.78 27.22
1899New York Giants1000 1,278.33 73.33 26.67
1998Tampa Bay Devil Rays816269 1,443.00 54.42 26.58
1996Detroit Tigers806713 1,432.67 53.94 26.06
1923Boston Red Sox685994 1,372.00 42.01 25.99
2001Boston Red Sox936272 1,448.00 67.14 25.86
1911Philadelphia Athletics815672 1,375.67 55.97 25.03
1966Philadelphia Phillies616132 1,459.67 36.33 24.67
1975Milwaukee Brewers586316 1,431.67 33.73 24.27
2002Boston Red Sox846049 1,446.00 59.88 24.12
1920St. Louis Cardinals586100 1,426.67 33.96 24.04
1914Detroit Tigers655734 1,412.00 41.85 23.15
2003Colorado Rockies846364 1,420.00 60.89 23.11
1953Philadelphia Athletics576186 1,409.00 34.06 22.94

Here are the lowest though they are all from the high-HBP early years:

YrTeamAct HBPAct BFP IP Exp HBP Diff
1898Cleveland Spiders571554 1,334.00 309.03 -252.03
1898Boston Beaneaters661572 1,340.00 311.75 -245.75
1897Boston Beaneaters451516 1,194.33 273.51 -228.51
1897Cleveland Spiders451423 1,118.67 257.24 -212.24
1899St. Louis Perfectos541541 1,340.67 257.70 -203.70
1897Brooklyn Bridegrooms521283 1,194.67 243.26 -191.26
1899Baltimore Orioles711573 1,304.33 259.99 -188.99
1898Louisville Colonels941333 1,334.00 276.78 -182.78
1899Boston Beaneaters691404 1,348.00 241.66 -172.66
1900Pittsburgh Pirates671812 1,229.00 205.38 -138.38
1900St. Louis Cardinals431325 1,217.33 166.81 -123.81
1900Brooklyn Superbas721645 1,225.67 193.00 -121.00
1899Pittsburgh Pirates68781 1,364.00 170.55 -102.55
1906New York Highlanders453630 1,357.67 136.92 -91.92
1899Louisville Colonels66659 1,351.67 155.31 -89.31
1901Baltimore Orioles483024 1,158.00 136.99 -88.99
1900Boston Beaneaters52962 1,240.33 140.49 -88.49
1897Louisville Colonels88818 1,138.00 176.21 -88.21
1901Boston Americans422739 1,217.00 129.73 -87.73
1901Boston Beaneaters385115 1,263.00 122.99 -84.99
1898Washington Senators80509 1,307.00 150.91 -70.91
1901Philadelphia Athletics592604 1,200.67 127.10 -68.10
1905Detroit Tigers512896 1,348.00 118.25 -67.25
1898Brooklyn Bridegrooms57293 1,298.67 117.27 -60.27
1905New York Highlanders442233 1,353.67 103.10 -59.10
Comments
2005-06-12 00:56:05
1.   Ken Arneson
I see that the Devil Rays and Red Sox of recent vintage are both on the list multiple times. Is this a chicken-and-egg thing?

Do the Rays and Bosox get into beanball wars against each other because they're both the types of teams that would be on this list, or did they get on this list because they got into a beanball war with each other?

2005-06-12 11:38:31
2.   graciebarn
Where is Walter Johnson on the "least HBP" list? Isn't he supposed to have a reputation for not going inside, thus allowing Ty Cobb to take advantage of him?
2005-06-12 12:55:28
3.   Mike Carminati
Graciebarn,

Johnson, Walter not Samuel, actually holds the career record for hit batsmen at 203. He comes in at #60, exceeding expectations by 24.76 hit batsmen.

Ken,
That needs some further investigation: spec. how many HBP occurred in Red Sox-D Ray games. Going on anecdotal evidence (Jeter and Soriano comes to mind), the bulk of the HBP did not come in their mutual contests.

2005-06-12 16:45:45
4.   BFenwick
Most of the knucklers that I can name seem to hit their fare share, while noted bean-hater Mike Mussina is on batter-friendly list. Some very interesting stuff in there...

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