Other entries in the Trade Series:

Mike: I’ll Take Manhattan: Baseball’s Most Lopsided Trades

A Quick One (Happy Mike)

I'll Take Manhattan: Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades, Revised Edition

I'll Take Manhattan: Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades, Revised Edition (Cont.)

Studes: The Best and Worst Teams of the Trade

Smoltz for Alexander

Russell Ziskey: "Can I have your last beer?"

John Winger (flatly): "No."

Russell (upbeat): "We'll split it!"

—From the incomparable Stripes

[I was going to call it "Tit For Tat" but "The Man" wouldn't let me. Ever since that Janet Jackson thing…]

After looking at the most lopsided trades of all time, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the most even. At the moment of consummation trades are often evaluated as a "win" for both sides, but how many actually have been?

In looking at the data, there are thousands (2452 actually) of trades in which the balance sheet evens out for both teams (i.e., that the Win Shares Above Baseline differential is zero). However, in the vast majority of these trades both teams received players who had very little value over the rest of their careers. They are even trades, but they are not exactly "wins" for any of the teams involved.

We need to filter the data based on the total WSAB after the trade for all of players involved. Also, given that the WSAB varies according to role, what we really need is a way to combine the WSAB differential with straight Win Shares amassed after the trade. Summing the two won't work since sometimes the two will cancel each other out if one is negative and the other positive. We need to measure the total differential (i.e., via absolute values). In that way, every post-trade Win Share is worth one point, but those in the WSAB stat count for two. Let's call this WSDiff.

I set the thresholds for the two derived stats at a minimum of 10 WSAB in total after the trade and a maximum WSDiff at 15. I got 188 records back, which would translate into 94 two-way trades.

But how to rank them after that? I next created a new derived stat, Post WS Avg, that takes the average of all the post-trade Win Share differentials (actually, of their absolute values). That is, the ones for career Win Shares, single-season Win Shares, career WSAB, and single-season WSAB.

Anyway, the trades in which the teams experienced as close to the same performance level during the remainder of the given season and over the rest of the players' careers would be considered even trades.

Without further ado, here they are (ranked by Post Avg Diff):

#1:

Date: May 19, 1970
Trade: San Francisco sent Frank Linzy to St. Louis for Jerry Johnson.
Pre Career WS Diff: 51 (favoring STL)
Post Career WS Diff: 0
Pre Year WS Diff: 2 (SF)
Post Year WS Diff: 1 (STL)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 37 (STL)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 3 (SF)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 0
Overall Avg Diff: 11.8
Post Avg Diff: 1
Total Post WSAB: 11
WSDiff: 3

One middle of the road reliever for another. Johnson had a very good year in 1971 as the Giants won the division. Linzy best years were later on.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
SFN	Johnson	11	24	2	3	0	7	0	0
SLN	Linzy	62	24	0	4	37	4	0	0

#2:

Date: December 19, 1985
Trade: Cincinnati sent Dann Bilardello, Andy McGaffigan, John Stuper, and Jay Tibbs to Montreal for Bill Gullickson and Sal Butera.
Pre Career WS Diff: 5 (Favoring Cin)
Post Career WS Diff: 1 (Cin)
Pre Year WS Diff: 0
Post Year WS Diff: 2 (Mon)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 15 (Cin)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 1 (Cin)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 1 (Cin)
Overall Avg Diff: 3.1
Post Avg Diff: 1.3
Total Post WSAB: 49
WSDiff: 2

Catchers Butera and Bilardello was a wash. As for the pitchers, Stuper was done. McGaffigan and Tibbs together were about the same as Gullickson.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
MON	Bilardello	14	8	0	2	0	0	0	0
CIN	Butera	9	6	0	4	0	0	0	0
CIN	Gullickson	63	63	0	16	27	25	0	10
MON	McGaffigan	14	44	0	13	0	23	0	8
MON	Stuper	21	0	0	0	6	0	0	0
MON	Tibbs	18	16	0	7	6	1	0	1

#3:

Date: April 4, 2001
Trade: Milwaukee sent Juan Acevedo, Kane Davis, and Jose Flores to Colorado for Mark Leiter, Mike DeJean, and Elvis Pena.
Pre Career WS Diff: 48 (favoring Milw)
Post Career WS Diff: 3 (Milw)
Pre Year WS Diff: 0
Post Year WS Diff: 2 (Milw)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 13 (Milw)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 0
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 3 (Milw)
Overall Avg Diff: 8.6
Post Avg Diff: 2.0
Total Post WSAB: 14
WSDiff: 3

This one's still to early to call. However, DeJean is about the only one that was very active in the majors last season.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
COL	Acevedo	26	17	0	4	9	7	0	0
COL	Davis	0	5	0	5	0	0	0	0
MIL	DeJean	20	22	0	8	6	7	0	3
COL	Flores	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIL	Leiter	54	2	0	2	16	0	0	0
MIL	Pena	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0

#4:

Date: July 23, 1990
Trade: Atlanta sent Joe "Leave it to" Boever to the Philadelphia for "Starvin'" Marvin Freeman.
Pre Career WS Diff: 12 (favoring Phil)
Post Career WS Diff: 2 (Phil)
Pre Year WS Diff: 2 (Phil)
Post Year WS Diff: 5 (Phil)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 5 (Phil)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 0
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 2 (Phil)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 2 (Phil)
Overall Avg Diff: 3.8
Post Avg Diff: 2.3
Total Post WSAB: 16
WSDiff: 2

Here's another reliever swap. Boever was veteran middle reliever and Freeman was a failed young starter, who become one of the Braves first middle relief reclamation projects.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
PHI	Boever	14	35	2	7	5	8	2	2
ATL	Freeman	2	33	0	2	0	8	0	0

#5 (tie):

Date: July 11, 2002
Trade: Montreal sent Carl Pavano, Graeme Lloyd, Mike Mordecai, Justin Wayne, and a player to be named later (Donald Levinski) to Florida for Cliff Floyd, Wilton Guerrero, Claudio Vargas, and cash.
Pre Career WS Diff: 64 (favoring Mon)
Post Career WS Diff: 2 (Mon)
Pre Year WS Diff: 17 (Mon)
Post Year WS Diff: 1 (Fla)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 34 (Mon)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 3 (Fla)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 7 (Mon)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 5 (Mon)
Overall Avg Diff: 16.6
Post Avg Diff: 2.8
Total Post WSAB: 31
WSDiff: 5

Again, still too early. However, given that Montreal cashed in Floyd in 19 days for two pitchers that haven't yet done much for them, this one will not be remembered as a win for the Expos/Nationals.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
MON	Vargas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
FLO	Levinski	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MON	Floyd	111	20	17	5	40	14	7	5
MON	Guerrero	29	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
FLO	Lloyd	39	3	1	1	4	0	0	0
FLO	Mordecai	20	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
FLO	Pavano	17	12	0	3	2	17	0	0
FLO	Wayne	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

#5 (tie):

Date: August 26, 1987
Trade: Cincinnati sent Bill Gullickson to the Yankees for Dennis Rasmussen.
Pre Career WS Diff: 53 (favoring NYY)
Post Career WS Diff: 4 (NYY)
Pre Year WS Diff: 2 (Cin)
Post Year WS Diff: 1 (Cin)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 27 (NYY)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 5 (NYY)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 2 (Cin)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 1 (Cin)
Overall Avg Diff: 11.9
Post Avg Diff: 2.8
Total Post WSAB: 21
WSDiff: 9

What's the deal with Bill Gullickson and these deals anyway? I guess mediocrity breeds mediocrity.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
NYA	Gullickson	85	41	6	2	39	13	2	0
CIN	Rasmussen	32	37	8	3	12	8	4	1

#5 (tie):

Date: December 6, 1959
Trade: The Cubs sent Lee Walls, Bill Henry, and Lou Jackson to Cincinnati for Frank Thomas.
Pre Career WS Diff: 22 (favoring Chi)
Post Career WS Diff: 1 (Cin)
Pre Year WS Diff: 0
Post Year WS Diff: 3 (Cin)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 17 (Chi)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 4 (Cin)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 3 (Cin)
Overall Avg Diff: 6.3
Post Avg Diff: 2.8
Total Post WSAB: 20
WSDiff: 5

Here's a three-for-one swap that "worked".

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
CIN	Jackson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CIN	Walls	49	12	0	3	14	0	0	0
CIN	Henry	43	44	0	8	16	12	0	3
CHN	Thomas	114	55	0	8	47	8	0	0

#5 (tie):

Date: December 17, 1995
Trade: Baltimore sent Joe Borowski and Rachaad Stewart to Atlanta for Kent Mercker.
Pre Career WS Diff: 41 (favoring Balt)
Post Career WS Diff: 4 (Balt)
Pre Year WS Diff: 0
Post Year WS Diff: 0
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 10 (Balt)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 7 (Atl)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 0
Overall Avg Diff: 7.8
Post Avg Diff: 2.8
Total Post WSAB: 17
WSDiff: 11

Borowski did OK for the Braves, but his career year came much later.

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
ATL	Borowski	1	25	0	1	0	12	0	0
BAL	Mercker	42	29	0	1	10	5	0	0
ATL	Stewart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

#5 (tie):

Date: February 13, 1986
Trade: The White Sox sent Ron Hassey, Chris Alvarez, Eric Schmidt, and Matt Winters to the Yankees for Neil Allen, Scott Bradley, Glen Braxton, and cash.
Pre Career WS Diff: 24 (favoring NYY)
Post Career WS Diff: 7 (Sox)
Pre Year WS Diff: 0
Post Year WS Diff: 0
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 1 (Sox)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 2 (NYY)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 2 (NYY)
Overall Avg Diff: 4.5
Post Avg Diff: 2.8
Total Post WSAB: 10
WSDiff: 9

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
CHA	Allen	50	16	0	8	18	4	0	2
CHA	Bradley	0	33	0	6	0	0	0	0
NYA	Alvarez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYA	Schmidt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CHA	Braxton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYA	Hassey	74	41	0	14	17	6	0	4
NYA	Winters	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

#10 (tie):

Date: June 10, 1907
Trade: Phillies sent Johnny Lush to the Cardinals for Buster Brown (and his shoes).
Pre Career WS Diff: 15 (favoring StL)
Post Career WS Diff: 8 (Phil)
Pre Year WS Diff: 2 (StL)
Post Year WS Diff: 1 (StL)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 5 (StL)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 2 (Phil)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 2 (StL)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 1 (StL)
Overall Avg Diff: 4.5
Post Avg Diff: 3.0
Total Post WSAB: 34
WSDiff: 10

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
SLN	Lush	36	40	3	10	14	16	3	4
PHI	Brown	21	48	1	9	9	18	1	3

#10 (tie):

Date: July 31, 2001
Trade: Boston sent Tomo Ohka and Rich Rundles to Montreal for Ugueth Urbina.
Pre Career WS Diff: 51 (favoring Bos)
Post Career WS Diff: 3 (Bos)
Pre Year WS Diff: 6 (Bos)
Post Year WS Diff: 3 (Bos)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 32 (Bos)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 4 (Bos)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 4 (Bos)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 2 (Bos)
Overall Avg Diff: 13.1
Post Avg Diff: 3.0
Total Post WSAB: 32
WSDiff: 7

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
MON	Ohka	6	28	0	2	0	14	0	0
MON	Rundles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BOS	Urbina	57	31	6	5	32	18	4	2

#10 (tie):

Date: July 11, 1992
Trade: Pittsburgh sent Steve Buechele to the Cubs for Danny Jackson.
Pre Career WS Diff: 11 (favoring Chi)
Post Career WS Diff: 2 (Pit)
Pre Year WS Diff: 8 (Chi)
Post Year WS Diff: 1 (Chi)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 18 (Pit)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 7 (Pit)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 3 (Chi)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 2 (Chi)
Overall Avg Diff: 6.5
Post Avg Diff: 3.0
Total Post WSAB: 19
WSDiff: 9

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
CHN	Buechele	87	29	10	5	23	6	3	2
PIT	Jackson	76	31	2	4	41	13	0	0

#10 (tie):

Date: July 22, 1960
Trade: Washington sent Bill Fischer to Detroit for Tom Morgan.
Pre Career WS Diff: 36 (favoring Was)
Post Career WS Diff: 2 (Det)
Pre Year WS Diff: 1 (Det)
Post Year WS Diff: 4 (Det)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 6 (Was)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 5 (Was)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 1 (Det)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 1 (Det)
Overall Avg Diff: 7.0
Post Avg Diff: 3.0
Total Post WSAB: 17
WSDiff: 7

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
WAS	Morgan	54	22	1	1	11	11	0	0
DET	Fischer	18	24	2	5	5	6	1	1

#10 (tie):

Date: June 1, 1910
Trade: Pittsburgh sent Sam Frock to the Boston Doves for Kirby White.
Pre Career WS Diff: 6 (favoring Pit)
Post Career WS Diff: 4 (Bos)
Pre Year WS Diff: 3 (Pit)
Post Year WS Diff: 4 (Bos)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 1 (Pit)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 2 (Bos)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 1 (Pit)
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 2 (Bos)
Overall Avg Diff: 2.9
Post Avg Diff: 3.0
Total Post WSAB: 14
WSDiff: 6

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
PIT	White	9	10	3	10	1	6	1	6
BSN	Frock	3	14	0	14	0	8	0	8

#10 (tie):

Date: April 1, 1982
Trade: Cincinnati sent Jeff Lahti and Jose Brito to St. Louis for Bob Shirley.
Pre Career WS Diff: 35 (favoring Cin)
Post Career WS Diff: 5 (Cin)
Pre Year WS Diff: 0
Post Year WS Diff: 4 (Cin)
WSAB Pre Career Diff: 10 (Cin)
WSAB Post Career Diff: 1 (Cin)
WSAB Pre Yr Diff: 0
WSAB Post Yr Diff: 2 (Cin)
Overall Avg Diff: 7.1
Post Avg Diff: 3.0
Total Post WSAB: 13
WSDiff: 6

ToTeam	Last	Pre Career WS	Post Career WS	Pre Year WS	Post Year WS	WSAB Pre Career	WSAB Post Career	WSAB Pre Yr	WSAB Post Yr
SLN	Brito	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SLN	Lahti	0	24	0	3	0	6	0	0
CIN	Shirley	35	29	0	7	10	7	0	2