As I await an other season of mediocrity in the land of the Phils, I am left wondering where the team would be if they could develop a modicum of decent pitching.

The Phils have three potential starters who came from the organization—Randy Wolf, Brett Myers, and Gavin Floyd. Wolf has shown flashes of being a capable frontline starter and has on occasion drawn comparisons to Tom Glavine, but his career ERA is 4.13, just 4% better than the park-adjusted league average, and his career record is slightly better than .500 (59-56).

The best that can be said of Myers is that he won 14 games two seasons ago. He owns an abysmal 4.84 ERA (14% worse than the park-adjusted league average) in two and one-half seasons.

Floyd looked good in a brief call-up at the end of last season (3.49 ERA, 125 ERA+ in 28.1 IP), but it took a Padilla injury to secure him a spot in the rotation. Of course, that may be more an indictment of the Phils' decision makers than of his abilities.

Then, there's Cole Hammels, who is sure to be a midseason callup in 2005. And of course staff savior Ryan Madson who rescued many a failed start as the long reliever last year. The Phils' future relies on these young pitchers, but given their history, I'm not sanguine.

Whether it's Jim Wright, Randy Lerch, Marty Bystrom, Dickie Noles, Pat Combs, Don Carman, Bruce "Roughed Up" Ruffin, Charlie Hudson, Tyler Green, Carlton Loewer, Mike Grace, Jason Grimsley, "Starvin'" Marvin Freeman, Brandon Duckworth, David Coggin, Mike Mimbs, Matt Beech, Mike Maddux, or Brett Myers the Phils seem to find the biggest flashes in the pans possible. In fact, other than a few like Larry Christenson and Kevin Gross, who have enjoyed some sustained success with the Phils—about one per generation—, the handful that found success, found it elsewhere. Those are guys like Cy Young winner Mark Davis, Andy Ashby, and Mike Williams. Dick Ruthven only enjoyed success as a Phil after developing as a Brave. Then again, the Phils' history is riddled with decent pitchers traded away before reaching their prime. Ferguson Jenkins, Bucky Walters, and Pete Alexander come to mind.

But this is all anecdotal evidence. Are the Phils actually worse than other major-league teams at developing pitchers? Can it be quantified?

I thought it would be interesting to compare them using the transaction data from Retrosheet. First, I had to determine which types of transactions were important for the study. The obvious one was the amateur draft, but there were others that could weigh in the decision.

The draft wasn't instituted until 1965. Prior to that teams were free to contract with young unsigned players. Therefore, the second type of transaction deals with amateur free agents (and so-called "bonus babies").

The last category deals with how well teams scout other organizations for prospects. They include Rule V draft picks, minor-league draft picks, first-year waiver picks, and first-year draft picks.

Using Win Shares Above Baseline (WSAB), how well have the Phils done in each of these categories?

First, let's look at the draft. Here are the franchise totals prorated per draft class:

So there it is: the Phils are the worst at drafting and developing pitching talent in baseball except for the last four expansion teams for which the data are limited.

Not only that. The Phils retain only 28% of the pitching prospects Win Shares Above Baseline. That's the second lowest.

That's a killer combo: do a bad job at developing pitching talent and trade away what you do develop. The facts back up the anecdotal evidence. The Phils are abysmal at developing and retaining pitching talent.

Now, let's look at the other categories. How do the Phils do in signing amateur free agents?

Here the Phils excel. So as long as they don't draft the pitchers, the do pretty well. This is also part of the anecdotal evidence: the Phils fall in love with their shinny high draft picks and are mesmerized by them as they flounder. The lower expectations for amateur free agents seems to allow these players to develop more thoroughly.

So does this translate into scouting other organizations?

Not much to see there. But what they hey, I'm a completist.

Anyway, given the Phils' past performance, I am not so optimistic about this season or the further development of the Phils youngsters. I hope they surprise me.