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Like School on Saturday, Part IV
2004-01-06 12:39
by Mike Carminati

Now, let's look at the players elected by the baseball writers. How did they fare in the years prior to induction? Note, first-ballot electees will not appear in the list:

Inductedvoted byNameLowHighRetired
1937BBWAACy Young49.12%49.12%1911
1937BBWAANap Lajoie64.60%64.60%1916
1937BBWAATris Speaker58.85%58.85%1928
1938BBWAAPete Alexander24.34%62.19%1930
1939BBWAAEddie Collins26.55%66.79%1930
1939BBWAAGeorge Sisler34.07%68.32%1930
1939BBWAAWillie Keeler17.70%67.56%1910
1942BBWAARogers Hornsby17.56%64.23%1937
1947BBWAACarl Hubbell9.72%38.40%1943
1947BBWAAFrankie Frisch6.19%40.89%1937
1947BBWAALefty Grove5.31%30.20%1941
1947BBWAAMickey Cochrane10.22%50.61%1937
1948BBWAAHerb Pennock7.46%53.42%1934
1948BBWAAPie Traynor1.15%73.91%1937
1949Run OffCharlie Gehringer0.44%66.67%1942
1951BBWAAJimmie Foxx6.21%61.31%1945
1951BBWAAMel Ott61.44%68.45%1947
1952BBWAAHarry Heilmann1.72%67.70%1932
1952BBWAAPaul Waner1.52%71.68%1945
1953BBWAAAl Simmons0.38%60.26%1944
1953BBWAADizzy Dean0.44%64.96%1947
1954BBWAABill Dickey6.88%67.80%1946
1954BBWAABill Terry2.67%72.35%1936
1954BBWAARabbit Maranville12.44%62.12%1935
1955BBWAADazzy Vance0.38%62.70%1935
1955BBWAAGabby Hartnett0.44%59.92%1941
1955BBWAAJoe DiMaggio0.40%69.44%1951
1955BBWAATed Lyons1.14%67.46%1946
1956BBWAAHank Greenberg1.21%62.55%1947
1956BBWAAJoe Cronin3.73%53.78%1945
1964Run OffLuke Appling0.76%70.65%1950
1967Run OffRed Ruffing2.14%81.78%1947
1968BBWAAJoe Medwick0.83%81.05%1948
1969BBWAARoy Campanella55.56%72.44%1957
1970BBWAALou Boudreau1.04%64.12%1952
1972BBWAAEarly Wynn27.94%66.67%1963
1972BBWAAYogi Berra67.22%67.22%1965
1973BBWAAWarren Spahn0.38%0.38%1965
1974BBWAAWhitey Ford67.11%67.11%1967
1975BBWAARalph Kiner1.33%61.84%1955
1976BBWAABob Lemon1.33%64.36%1958
1976BBWAARobin Roberts56.05%72.65%1966
1978BBWAAEddie Mathews32.33%62.40%1968
1980BBWAADuke Snider17.00%71.30%1964
1983BBWAAJuan Marichal58.10%73.49%1975
1984BBWAADon Drysdale20.99%64.71%1969
1984BBWAAHarmon Killebrew59.28%71.93%1975
1984BBWAALuis Aparicio11.97%67.38%1973
1985BBWAAHoyt Wilhelm38.89%71.96%1972
1987BBWAABilly Williams23.37%74.12%1976
1987BBWAACatfish Hunter53.67%68.00%1979
1991BBWAAFergie Jenkins52.35%66.67%1983
1991BBWAAGaylord Perry68.01%72.07%1983
1992BBWAARollie Fingers65.69%65.69%1985
1997BBWAAPhil Niekro60.00%68.30%1987
1998BBWAADon Sutton56.92%73.15%1988
2000BBWAACarlton Fisk66.40%66.40%1993
2000BBWAATony Perez50.00%67.86%1986
2003BBWAAGary Carter33.80%72.67%1992
Avg (>0)25.17%64.01%

Well, they did have more support from the writers prior to their election, but then again it is the same body, the baseball writers, throughout. Note that the players elected from the Eighties on have gotten a great deal of support throughout their tenure on the writers' ballot as opposed to the ones that were inducted in the Fifties and Sixties.

Now let's look at the progress by decade:

DecadeCountLowHigh
1910s343.81%60.42%
1920s158.85%58.85%
1930s1212.06%62.10%
1940s156.79%62.42%
1950s610.07%67.14%
1960s836.13%59.05%
1970s640.88%71.15%
1980s658.83%68.96%
1990s250.10%69.53%
Total5925.17%64.01%

It seems like there was an abrupt change in the way that players got elected in the Seventies.

Now, let's look at the progression of the writers' choices over the course of their eligibility (note that these numbers include the tallies that did indeed get the players inducted):

Eligibility#Avg PCT
1st yr9765.70%
2nd yr4048.29%
3rd yr3943.81%
4th yr3245.34%
5th yr2246.46%
6th yr2046.00%
7th yr1841.07%
8th yr1146.95%
9th yr1640.80%
10th yr2435.53%
11th yr2835.22%
12th yr2151.63%
13th yr1641.34%
14th yr1845.55%
15th yr1050.60%
16th yr1163.19%
17th yr855.36%
18th yr667.67%
19th yr670.24%
20th yr478.25%
21st yr184.81%

You'll note that players get the most support when they are new to the ballot or when their eligibility is about to expire (from the 16th year on, depending on the various eligibility cutoffs of the past).

Now let's take a look at the same progression for those players who have not gained admission to the hallowed halls of Cooperstown (Note, this includes the 2003 veterans voting, basically everything after the 30th year):

Eligibility#Avg PCT
1st yr7211.74%
2nd yr1704.92%
3rd yr1614.85%
4th yr887.70%
5th yr847.82%
6th yr688.58%
7th yr699.01%
8th yr6110.02%
9th yr967.36%
10th yr579.40%
11th yr858.22%
12th yr6010.34%
13th yr808.67%
14th yr6010.98%
15th yr5511.28%
16th yr268.22%
17th yr278.68%
18th yr288.83%
19th yr2512.41%
20th yr158.26%
21st yr711.80%
22nd yr1212.65%
23rd yr810.52%
24th yr1312.66%
25th yr418.39%
26th yr423.80%
27th yr317.97%
28th yr113.19%
29th yr215.67%
30th yr413.58%
31st yr114.69%
35th yr240.74%
37th yr14.94%
38th yr113.58%
46th yr119.75%
48th yr316.87%
56th yr114.81%
59th yr123.46%
67th yr17.41%

Boy, they drop like flies after the first couple of years of eligibility, eh? The ones that stick around do get more support as time goes on.

One thing to keep in mind is that the rule to drop those players who don't receive five percent from the writers' ballot is relatively new. Even players who got elected to the Hall have years under 5% as well as years in which they are omitted altogether from the writers' ballot. If the to the 5% rule had been in effect throughout the voting, twenty Hall of Famers elected by the writers would have been dropped from the ballot. They are: Al Simmons, Dazzy Vance, Joe DiMaggio, Charlie Gehringer, Dizzy Dean, Gabby Hartnett, Luke Appling, Joe Medwick, Lou Boudreau, Ted Lyons, Pie Traynor, Hank Greenberg, Ralph Kiner, Bob Lemon, Paul Waner, Harry Heilmann, Red Ruffing, Bill Terry, Joe Cronin, and Warren Spahn, who received one vote while still active. Of the vets' selections, only 15 of 94 would have passed the 5% rule strictures. Of course, given the number of high quality players eligible in the early voting, the 5% rule would not have made sense initially. But it does illustrate that the writers' ballot is much less forgiving for modern players.

Next, let's use Win Shares to evaluate past elections. First, we need to establish that a) Win Shares is a credible tool for this type of research and b) what is the rule of thumb as far as Win Shares for Hall of Famers? Is there a cutoff by which we can evaluate past elections? Let's see:

Here is table of various career Win Share ranges with the number of eligible players as well as Hall-inducted players in the range. That is also represented as a percentage of eligible players inducted with the difference in percentage from one range to the next. Note that the ranges end at 150 since no one with fewer than 150 career Win Shares has ever been elected to the Hall (Tommy McCarthy, 170, is the lowest). Also, Hall-of-Famer Addie Joss (191 career Win Shares) is not included in this table since he technically is ineligible for the Hall having played only 9 seasons:

Win SharesInductedEligible%Diff
700+22100.00%
650-69911100.00%0.00%
600-64955100.00%0.00%
550-59944100.00%0.00%
500-5494580.00%-20.00%
450-49977100.00%20.00%
400-4491616100.00%0.00%
350-399354185.37%-14.63%
300-349387054.29%-31.08%
250-2994112133.88%-20.40%
200-2492819914.07%-19.81%
150-19991994.52%-9.55%
19067028.36%

I would say that career Win Shares is a pretty good predictor of Hall of Famers. 39 of the 40 "eligible" players over 400 career WS are in the Hall. (The one person who is eligible in terms of eligibility years but is not in the Hall is Pete Rose, 547 WS, but he's ineligible for some other reason that escapes me just now. There are also four players who have not yet been eligible for the writers' ballot, but should be no-brainers: Ripken, Bonds, Henderson, and Molitor.)

For each range from 400 career Win Shares down to 150, the percent of Hall of Famers drops by about 20% per rung until it's zero for those under 150. There are six eligible players in the 350-399 range who have not yet been elected (Tony Mullane, 399; Bill Dahlen, 394; Darrell Evans, 363; Rusty Staub, 358; Sherry Magee, 354; and Lou Whitaker, 351), though s few may still go in. (Gwynn, Boggs, Raines, and Clemens are also in this range but are not yet eligble.)

The next group (300-349) seems to be where voters become uncertain about the player's Hall worthiness and is therefore, the source of most of the Hall voting controversy. Only slightly 50% of the eligible players in this group have ended up getting elected, though many are still active on the writers' ballot. Players of note are Ryne Sandberg, Dick Allen, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Dave Parker, Ron Santo, Alan Trammell, Joe Torre, Ted Simmons, Willie Randolph, Keith Hernandez, Dwight Evans, and Bobby Grich. Though there are an odd George Van Haltren or Tommy Leach thrown in, most of the players not in the Hall from this range are from the Sixties until the present. They best represent the chasm between what had previously been the de facto standard for a Hall of Famer and what is the standard today.

From 300 Win Shares down, Hall voters get extremely picky. I think that Win Shares does represent a reasonable means to evaluate Hall voting and that 300 Win Shares can be used as an historic threshold for that evaluation. Sure, there are plenty of qualified players with fewer than 300 Win Shares—Sandy Koufax merits just 194 for his career. However, almost all of the controversial selections are below 300 Win Shares. Koufax is and should be the exception rather than the rule. His truly was an exceptional career.

To further illustrate this point, here is a table of the average career Win Shares for each election class and the cumulative average as of that election year:

Inducted#Avg WSGrand #Avg WSChange
19365623.805623.80
19373586.678609.88-13.93
19381476.009595.00-14.88
19397385.8616503.50-91.50
19421502.0017503.41-0.09
19459300.7826433.27-70.14
194610266.6036386.97-46.30
19474334.2540381.70-5.27
19482257.0042375.76-5.94
19493385.6745376.420.66
19512481.5047380.894.47
19522389.5049381.240.35
19534283.0053373.83-7.41
19543298.0056369.77-4.06
19556292.8362362.32-7.45
19562300.0064360.38-1.95
19571446.0065361.691.32
19591380.0066361.970.28
19612344.0068361.44-0.53
19623287.6771358.32-3.12
19634332.2575356.93-1.39
19646343.8381355.96-0.97
19651403.0082356.540.57
19661555.0083358.932.39
19672283.5085357.15-1.77
19683319.6788355.88-1.28
19694329.5092354.73-1.15
19703237.0095351.01-3.72
19716267.83101346.07-4.94
19725253.80106341.72-4.35
19734334.00110341.44-0.28
19744330.00114341.04-0.40
19753273.33117339.30-1.74
19764281.75121337.40-1.90
19773300.67124336.51-0.89
19782320.50126336.25-0.25
19792433.00128337.771.51
19803344.33131337.920.15
19812327.50133337.76-0.16
19823457.67136340.402.65
19833282.67139339.16-1.25
19845289.00144337.42-1.74
19854320.75148336.97-0.45
19863302.33151336.28-0.69
19872290.00153335.67-0.60
19881370.00154335.900.22
19893368.67157336.520.63
19902412.00159337.470.95
19914332.00163337.34-0.13
19923280.00166336.30-1.04
19931444.00167336.950.64
19942298.50169336.49-0.45
19953363.00172336.950.46
19961257.00173336.49-0.46
19972339.00175336.520.03
19983328.33178336.38-0.14
19994374.75182337.230.84
20003340.67185337.280.06
20013305.00188336.77-0.52
20021325.00189336.70-0.06
20032387.00191337.230.53
The average Hall of Famer is in the mid-330 Win Share range. Within ten years of the Hall's founding, the average Hall of Famer was very quickly approaching that figure (386.97 average as of 1946). The average Hall of Famer had been over 500 Win Shares until 1942. If that were the "standard" today there would be just 19 men in the Hall. If it fell to 400, then there would be just 44 men in the Hall. The change came as what was a Hall of Famer was evolving. With the veterans' voluminous and highly questionable selections in the Forties, especially given the number of exceptional candidates still having to pay for their admission to the Hall, the career Win Share average for the Hall fell quickly. Unfortunately, instead of merely broadening the concept of a Hall of Famer to encompass a larger group (as of 2001 there were 172 players with at least 300 Win Shares), the vets haphazardly selected players, passing up many more deserving in the process. We are still dealing with their mess today. Using 300 Win Shares as out standard, let's look at how men meeting this cutoff have fared in the voted historically. Here's a table of the percentage of eligible players who would be eventually inducted in the Hall as of the end of each decade as well as today and the first vote year, 1936.
YearInductedEligible%
1936425084.00%
1940465485.19%
1950607085.71%
1960637386.30%
1970708087.50%
1980819387.10%
19909611682.76%
200010914475.69%
200311215174.17%

Note that 300 Win Shares have been a good predictor for Hall-inducted since the outset, about 85-87%. A few early players have been ignored (witness the 84%). The accuracy of the voting for 300+ candidates was improving until the early Eighties and since then the dropoff has been severe. Though more recent numbers are the most likely to change as new players are selected, at least 17 eligible players would have to be selected before the inducted percent for 300+ Win Share players got back above 85%.

To be continued…


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