A Big Lie

Hitler once said, "The great mass of people will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one." So what do I think of reports that MLB projects a $220-million dollar loss and that one "official" expects a $450-million loss with only one unnamed team in the black? Well, I don't want to compare Bud Selig to Hitler-Hitler had more charisma-but they do both know the importance of a big lie.

Try to swallow this one:

"As of June, given where payrolls ended up and attendance being down more than five percent, net operating losses will be over $450 million "
- MLB official

First, has attendance gone down? I checked the reported attendance for 2002 on ESPN against the 2001 attendance in TSN's 2002 Baseball Guide. The 2001 average was 29,813.89 per game. The 2002 average so far is 28,466.25. That is a decrease of 4.7%, not the over 5% we were promised but close. However, given that the season is not over we may not be comparing apples to apples. I would assume that attendance goes up for the pennant race, so there may in actuality be no decrease. Let's just assume a 4.7% decrease.

The official also states that salaries are up. Doug Pappas estimated that salaries when the season began 2002 vs. 2001 rose 5.2%. Taking the numbers as reported by MLB for 2001 and assuming all remains the same except for the salary increase and the attendance drop, we get:

A Big Lie

Hitler once said, "The great mass of people will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one."  So what do I think of reports that MLB projects a $220-million dollar loss and that one "official" expects a $450-million loss with only one unnamed team in the black?  Well, I don't want to compare Bud Selig to Hitler-Hitler had more charisma-but they do both know the importance of a big lie.

Try to swallow this one:

 "As of June, given where payrolls ended up and attendance being down more than five percent, net operating losses will be over $450 million "
- MLB official

First, has attendance gone down?  I checked the reported attendance for 2002 on ESPN against the 2001 attendance in TSN's 2002 Baseball Guide.  The 2001 average was 29,813.89 per game.  The 2002 average so far is 28,466.25.  That is a decrease of 4.7%, not the over 5% we were promised but close.  However, given that the season is not over we may not be comparing apples to apples.  I would assume that attendance goes up for the pennant race, so there may in actuality be no decrease.  Let's just assume a 4.7% decrease.

The official also states that salaries are up.  Doug Pappas estimated that salaries when the season began 2002 vs. 2001 rose 5.2%.  Taking the numbers as reported by MLB for 2001 and assuming all remains the same except for the salary increase and the attendance drop, we get:

                                    2001 Dollars 2002+/-   2002 projection

Regular season game receipts        1,383,457.61   -4.7%   1,318,435.10

Local television, radio and cable     571,094.88             571,094.88

Post season                            45,543.00              45,543.00

All Other Local Operating Revenue     827,815.12             827,815.12